Opposition to Spending on the Census

[Desmond Hawkins]

The census is cheap for the value you get out of it, and that full value won't be seen for decades, or even centuries. The bedrock of science (and social science) and informed decision is good, tedious, data collection. And when it comes to something like the census, it is simply a problem that cannot be solved by the market.

To appeal to all of your capitalist instincts, as an example, I would say: even commercial geodemographic packages (used extensively by retail and businesses to identify customer bases and locate stores efficiently) are completely dependent on the census. They gain their value-added by collecting additional data from private sources, but they ultimately could not exist without that ultra-reliable government data.

Data collection and analysis helps make the "invisible hand" a lot less clumsy.

 

[amadeus]

Data collection and analysis helps make the "invisible hand" a lot less clumsy.

Sure, but I hate to be the one to say it, but companies already do their own market research. Does the government and the public really need this data on a year-to-year basis?

 

[Masquerouge]

Not proposing, but supporting?

As I said, a yearly census does not mean it applies to the entire population.

 

[Desmond Hawkins]

Sure, but I hate to be the one to say it, but companies already do their own market research. Does the government and the public really need this data on a year-to-year basis?

And their market research is often just value added to the foundation provided by the census. And in fact, if government did a lot of that work itself and made it freely available to the public, there would be arguably greater positive impact. Private companies don't like to share their data without significant payment, so there is wasteful duplication and opportunity cost. Quite frankly, government is more efficient in this work.

Year-to-year data would be extremely useful for longer term research in academia. Five or ten year snapshots are too coarse for a lot of work.

 

[Irish Caesar]

As I said, a yearly census does not mean it applies to the entire population.

Wouldn't your idea make it tougher to determine migration trends? Perhaps not, but I think a big snapshot at certain intervals would be better at showing who moves where when why.

 

[Masquerouge]

Wouldn't your idea make it tougher to determine migration trends? Perhaps not, but I think a big snapshot at certain intervals would be better at showing who moves where when why.

Well it's like polling. The relevance of your poll to the general population much depends on your correct sampling. In theory, every year you do the census on a representative sample of the population (which you also adjust every year based on the results of the previous year).

This is actually how France and Germany are doing their census. In France's case, a partial census is done every year and the national results aggregated every 5 years.

 

[Irish Caesar]

But I think you'd need to do a whole census to see if you are, in fact, getting a representative sample...

 

[Cutlass]

But I think you'd need to do a whole census to see if you are, in fact, getting a representative sample...

That's always the issue, and the issue that confuses people. Statisticians have a lot of experience with the census. And as far as I know the models have what they need to get it right.

But that said, a lot of people would be more comfortable with a literal count.

 

[Irish Caesar]

That's always the issue, and the issue that confuses people. Statisticians have a lot of experience with the census. And as far as I know the models have what they need to get it right.

I deal with statistics, too, and I realize how a relatively small sample can give you extremely good results if you know what you're doing. Obviously the people who run the Census are going to know what they're doing.

But that said, a lot of people would be more comfortable with a literal count.

But yes, it's comforting to know everyone gets into the count each time.

And it's really a pretty small price to pay, considering. If we did it every year, it'd be ridiculous, of course.

 

[Cutlass]

Could it really be done though? There's resistance to it. Particularly among the undocumented, but others as well.

 

[Irish Caesar]

Could what really be done?

A yearly census? Or counting everyone? Or something else?

 

[Cutlass]

The physical count of every person in the country. Seems really hard to do.

 

[Irish Caesar]

Well, yes, not a job I'd want... although the undocumented being opposed to it shouldn't have any bearing in whether we do it or not. Practicality, sure.

But why couldn't we? Can we count every person in a state? How about a town? Districts of towns? Put it together and you've got the whole country pretty well. And you should know where you might be off a bit and where you'd be spot-on.

 

[Cutlass]

Think of the problems with execution. Most people can only reliably be found at home in the overnight hours. If you knocked on every door during the day, most would be at work. At night, many would be at work or out. Some on weekends. Some people won't open the door. Others will lie. Still others will refuse to answer. People don't stay in one place. It just isn't possible to be certain you've touched every person in the country on the shoulder and said "tag". And what about the homeless?

 

[PiMan]

Think of the problems with execution. Most people can only reliably be found at home in the overnight hours. If you knocked on every door during the day, most would be at work. At night, many would be at work or out. Some on weekends. Some people won't open the door. Others will lie. Still others will refuse to answer. People don't stay in one place. It just isn't possible to be certain you've touched every person in the country on the shoulder and said "tag". And what about the homeless?

The way Australia does it is to place six census forms on the doorstep of every occupied house and to make sure the local government has lots of spares for anyone who doesn't have a fixed address or has more than six people in a household.

The census is taken every five years, and at the last census 19,855,288 people were counted. It does help that our population is a fifteenth of the US population.

 

[Cutlass]

The way Australia does it is to place six census forms on the doorstep of every occupied house and to make sure the local government has lots of spares for anyone who doesn't have a fixed address or has more than six people in a household.

The census is taken every five years, and at the last census 19,855,288 people were counted. It does help that our population is a fifteenth of the US population.

It also helps if an extremely high percentage is honest and cooperative.

 

[Integral]

Think of the problems with execution. Most people can only reliably be found at home in the overnight hours. If you knocked on every door during the day, most would be at work. At night, many would be at work or out. Some on weekends. Some people won't open the door. Others will lie. Still others will refuse to answer. People don't stay in one place. It just isn't possible to be certain you've touched every person in the country on the shoulder and said "tag". And what about the homeless?

Though a count of every resident of the United States may be difficult, that's why we only do it every ten years.

From the Census 2010 page:

About 2010 Census


What
Count
The census is a count of everyone residing in the United States: in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and the Island Areas.

Who
Everyone
All residents of the United States must be counted. This includes people of all ages, races, ethnic groups, citizens and non-citizens.

When
Every 10 years
Every 10 years, and the next census occurs in 2010. Census questionnaires will be mailed or delivered to every household in the United States in March 2010. The questions ask you to provide information that is accurate for your household as of April 1, 2010.

The Census Bureau must count everyone and submit state population totals to the U.S. President by December 31, 2010.

The first Census was conducted in 1790 and has been carried out every 10 years since then.

Where
Everywhere in the U.S.
The census counts everyone residing in the United States: in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and the Island Areas.

People should be counted where they live and sleep most of the year.

Why
The U.S. Constitution (Article I, Section 2) mandates a headcount of everyone residing in the United States. The population totals determine each state’s Congressional representation. The numbers also affect funding in your community and help inform decision makers about how your community is changing. More info…

How
The Census Bureau will mail or deliver questionnaires to your house in March 2010. We will mail a second form to households that do not respond to the initial questionnaire.

Households that still do not respond will be called or visited by a Census worker. (Census workers can be identified by a census badge and bag.)

So whether we count everyone depends on your definitions of 'count', 'everyone', and 'residing'.

Most other census data (trade data, port activity, poverty, state-by-state income per capita statistics, etc) is complied yearly or quarterly using representative samples, in the same way that the BLS provides monthly job estimates and monthly price estimates using representative samples.

 

[Cutlass]

I know we're required to. Just seems extremely difficult.

 

[MrPopov]

Well couldn't a lot of the census be incorporated into federal income tax forms? That would count everyone making an income and their dependants right? That data could be incorporated into the 10-year census.

 

[Counterclaw]

"Too expensive" is not a term the current government is familiar with. I sort of thought
the whole AIG bail-out was too expensive, but apparently, money is growing on trees
these days. Therefore, we can have a full census, every time!