Pennsylvania special election for house

[Archbob]

So there is another special election deep in the heart of Trumpland where Supreme Warlord Trump won in 2016 by a HUGE margin.
But all is not well for the minions of Trump. The democrat uprising is actually up in the polls and despite the Trump candidate proclaiming that his "Opponents Hate God"(https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics...ne-says-opponents-hate-god-orig-vstan-bdk.cnn), a message which the Lord probably does not approve of, he may lose what was once territory held solidly by the armies of Trump.

The rebel insurgent democrat challenge has outraised the loyal pawn of Trump by a large margin but the GOP national party has spent a lot of money to ensure this election. The polls are now closed, who do you think will win this election. Will the Trumpians hold their land or will the rebel uprising take over and destroy the lands of the mighty warlord Trump?

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Get it right. "Hate God and America."

 

[Archbob]

Get it right. "Hate God and America."

Oh sorry, my bad. Don't want to misrepresent the loyal minions of the mighty Trump.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Oh sorry, my bad. Don't want to misrepresent the loyal minions of the mighty Trump.

Wise choice. Misrepresentation is their jealously guarded dominion and your trespass would not go unremarked.

 

[Traitorfish]

I misread "house" as "horse" but it turns out that politics is boring.

 

[Archbob]

But a victory here can mean that the Vast Trumpian empire is collapsing and is being taken over by npmadic democratic insurgents.

 

[Cutlass]

I wouldn't celebrate too soon. The people who actually vote and the gerrymandering still favors the GOPers.

 

[Archbob]

Yeah, I know, its only 58% in and only a 5k vote advantage, far from over. Trump won by 20% in 2016 though.

 

[Cutlass]

The odds may be narrowing in a lot of places. But not enough.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

The national republicans dumped almost five million in here. Even if they barely hold, which I suspect that they will, they can't possibly go into November planning on "we have to dump five million a pop in districts Trump won by twenty points" and surviving. This is a district where they haven't had to spend a dime for the past decade, at least. In districts like mine, where the incumbent Republican held on even though Trump barely came even with Clinton there isn't enough GOP money in the entire country to save them, if this is any indicator.

 

[Archbob]

I'm not sure if they will hold on though. The Allegheny Advantage than Lamb has, Saccone may not be able to overcome. 71% in and leads by 5k votes.

 

[Archbob]

Going down to the wire folks, the GOP may have it because of Washington County.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Going down to the wire folks, the GOP may have it because of Washington County.

While it would be obviously nice for Lamb to win, the 'going down to the wire' is a gigantic message on the wall of the GOP hall about just how much trouble they are in.

 

[Archbob]

I realistically want this to be a tie, then a tie in the recount and then they have to fight each other in a steel cage match to determine the winner. Now that would be entertainment.

 

[Bootstoots]

Lamb is still up by 847 votes with 99% reporting. I expect it will go to a recount with Lamb still leading by a few hundred, and the recount will probably not do anything. Not that who wins in the end really matters - this district is going to disappear assuming the PA supreme court ruling stands, and it's not as though cutting a 24-seat majority to 23 has any consequences. But it is pretty telling that the GOP managed to roughly tie somewhere it had won by 21 points in 2016.

It also shows that it's perfectly possible to win enough working class former Democrats back into the party to make a big difference. Juxtaposed with the Georgia result, it provides evidence to support something I've long thought: the Dems are well-served by going after the people who were supporting them until very recently, and if they have to choose between flipping those back and trying to flip wealthy suburban Republicans, they should choose the former.

 

[Archbob]

The GOP wins with the Gerrymeandering nowdays, the popular vote demographics have turned against them.

 

[Berzerker]

looks like maybe a recount, but the Dem has a ~600 lead with some absentee ballots still out

 

[Archbob]

I think there are only like 1100 absentee Ballots left and he has to make up 600 votes so I'd need something like 850:250 to win.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I think there are only like 1100 absentee Ballots left and he has to make up 600 votes so I'd need something like 850:250 to win.

I think there were 1100 absentee ballots in one of the counties. Total there were quite a few more than that. I don't know if some of those counts have come in and only the 1100 are left, or if you heard that 1100 earlier when they were talking about the one county. But it certainly appears that barring a recount Lamb is going to hold the win, which is a hilarious cherry on top of the sundae of the thing even being close.

 

[Archbob]

I know some of them have already been counted. I think Washington is the only county they haven't finished counting yet.