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Pinochet: savior of Chile or useless fascist?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Hygro, Feb 5, 2011.

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  1. Takhisis

    Takhisis is it fall yet

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    How the blazes have we got into an argument over whether economics is a science or not?
     
  2. ParadigmShifter

    ParadigmShifter Random Nonsense Generator

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    It's fun to punch dwarves ;)
     
  3. Hygro

    Hygro soundcloud.com/hygro/

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    I suppose if you were the best astrologer, that would imply there were differences in quality of your forecasts. Ergo, listening to the best astrologer could be a very very good idea.
     
  4. Formaldehyde

    Formaldehyde Both Fair And Balanced

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    If you listen to astrologers at all. What a fitting analogy.

    Remember Alan Greenspan, the previous head of the Fed, who said how it was completely safe to deregulate everything since banks and other financial institutions would never let greed trump common sense to the point where it would endanger their own assets? Whatever happened to him?
     
  5. Cutlass

    Cutlass The Man Who Wasn't There.

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    Greenspan didn't listen to astrologers. He listened to libertarians.
     
  6. Takhisis

    Takhisis is it fall yet

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    up yours!
    The difference being?
     
  7. Theige

    Theige American Baron

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    Only to people who lack a basic understanding of, well, human civilization.

    He admitted he was wrong.
     
  8. Formaldehyde

    Formaldehyde Both Fair And Balanced

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    Oh, well that's different. That makes it perfectly OK to be caught spewing drivel as though it were sound economic advice. After all, what's the downside?
     
  9. ParadigmShifter

    ParadigmShifter Random Nonsense Generator

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    A nitwit?

    Sir! You risk an escalation of argument. I may have to resort to calling you a dunderhead, or worse, a nincompoop!

    I thought Mandelbrot pretty much nailed the whole economics bases assumptions based on a finite variance thing when he showed many of the variables have fat-tailed distributions, e.g. a Cauchy distribution.
     
  10. Traitorfish

    Traitorfish The Tighnahulish Kid

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    ...Which is exactly the same argument that new agers use in defence of tea-reading, yes.

    Formaldehyde is right, it is a good analogy! :lol:
     
  11. newfangle

    newfangle hates you.

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    5 star thread. Would read again.
     
  12. Birdjaguar

    Birdjaguar Entangled Retired Moderator Supporter

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  13. Bill3000

    Bill3000 OOOH NOOOOOOO! Supporter

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    So how exactly can you tell that the United States was headed towards a depression if these actions weren't taken again? :confused: You can't exactly clone the country as a control or something. Even if his policy prescriptions did cause it, that would merely mean that a broken clock is right twice a day. Economists tend to have the obsession with picking new people who explain recent crises, and simply ignoring that they were wrong and head to the next policy when the next crisis comes. It also has nothing to do with my previous point - that economics has no predictive power, and thus it is not a science. It certainly can't be used for policy prescriptions when the reality is that economists don't have a rigorous clue what they are talking about.
     
  14. Theige

    Theige American Baron

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    Economics clearly has some predictive powers; that you continue to willingly ignore them and keep repeating, ad nauseam, that it does not, does not make you correct.

    What is your solution, then, Bill3000?

    Should we put physicists in charge of our monetary policy? Mathematicians perhaps?

    We can't know for sure that the US, and subsequently the world, were headed for a depression. But, we do know, that without the unprecedented actions taken by the Federal Reserve, things would have been worse. That much is certain.
     
  15. Quackers

    Quackers The Frog

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  16. Brian Shanahan

    Brian Shanahan Permanoob

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    Actually we haven't on either count. But the world's major nations are pursuing policies which are far more likely to bring it about.
     
  17. Theige

    Theige American Baron

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    Profits are higher than they've ever been, and the banking system has been structurally changed to be more stable.
     
  18. Brian Shanahan

    Brian Shanahan Permanoob

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    Profits are higher because the promised crackdown on the offshore havens has turned into a massive expansion on the one hand, and on the other hand you've got wage reduction which will boost short term results at the expense of medium- to long-term solubility and viability.

    And if you think that the banking system has undergone any changes, then you are not looking at what has been happening in the realm of bank regulation. I would say that, in fact, the banking system is now less stable than before the crash, as the banks know that they were bailed out without having to make any concessions or provisions for paying back the massive loans the rest of us gave them. When you have publicly owned banks like HBOS and Lloyds pulling the exact same stunts, and thumbing their noses to the government (i.e. their owners) then you know that there has only been a change for the worse.

    Frankly the response of the majority of the first world's governments (those that will dictate recovery or depression) have decided to pursue the same Friedman-inspired policies that got us into the banking mess in the first place. If you want to see what is going to happen to the likes of the UK or US economies over the next few years look at the PIGS. We're about 3 years farther along the line policy wise and our economies are in the toilet (so much so that I currently put us at the same level as the 1980's {for Ireland} and swiftly approaching the 1950's {again for Ireland}) . It is not a pretty sight.
     
  19. Theige

    Theige American Baron

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    Off-shore havens don't have anything to do with overall corporate profits at all. Wages have not fallen very much, and probably rebounded for most countries in 2010 (statistics aren't all available yet)

    I guess you've never heard of the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act or the Basel III Accords

    You currently put your country on the "same level" as the 1980's?



    Not by a long shot. Looks to be about 2004 levels.
     
  20. Brian Shanahan

    Brian Shanahan Permanoob

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    Basel III did zilch. The fact is that tax havens have exactly the same legal position in the world as before the crash, sometimes a leader will come out and make a weasely denunciation of them, while all the time trying his/her best to ensure their safety. Why do you think so much tax still disappears into them, and when found out the authorities cut sweet-heart deals?


    Unemployment figures beg to differ. That's half a million people out of work, and it is going to get worse. Also I'm guessing that your graph has made no adjustment for inflation, because in real terms the economy actually shrank in Ireland in the late '70's and '80's, we went through a major financial and economic crisis. And also consider that the GDP in Ireland is likely to be highly inflated due to the inclusion of profits made elsewhere by multinationals due to the tax-haven levels of taxes and scrutiny available here and that graph doesn't tell you squat.
     
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