Pre-Game Opponents' Leader Analysis

Irgy

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So, what do we think of the oppositions' leader choices? For reference, they are:

Mavericks: Gandhi
AMAZON: Cyrus
Sirius: Willem van Oranje (that's us!)
CDZ: Ragnar
Merlot: Pacal II
Quatronia: Hannibal

I'll start with my own thoughts. First some general observations, 4/6 financial means plenty of competition in the tech race. Many other civs have gone for early UUs, so expect a lot of action early on and be on the lookout. We particularly need to find metal as early as possible to defend ourselves. Exactly two civs have mysticism, making them the most likely to take the early religeons, although whether they go for it may depend on their starts. Getting specific:

Mavericks: Gandhi
Most likely civ to take the Oracle. Plenty of potential for a strong religeous economy here to make up for the lack of financial.

AMAZON: Cyrus
The other persian leader. Settlers, great generals, promoted units and a high early happy cap. Expect these guys to make up for their lack of financial with well trained units, and particularly look out for that immortal rush.

Sirius: Willem van Oranje
If we can make it through these early game UUs and survive to the late era when our dikes come in we'll be looking good.

CDZ: Ragnar
A mix of commerce and aggression. Our UU will have to contend with their faster sea units, and look out for those coast raids

Merlot: Pacal II
A balanced leader. Safe from an immortal rush and able to expand quickly with fast built workers. UU not such a worry as long as we have copper for axes. Expansive combines with the UB for an extra +2 health and +2 happiness ahead of everyone else.

Quatronia: Hannibal
A third coastal UB. A high early happy cap combined with financial could lead to a fast start for technology. UU is hard to specifically counter but not that great on the whole - straight horse archers are a good option against them.


I don't know much about the actual teams playing these civs, maybe others have some insights?
 
If we could build the 'mids, we'd kill Gandhi's likely SE. Philosophical is crap without a bunch of AI to abuse with your bulbs.

Ragnar isn't that great, although with islands it'll be much more dangerous. Nothing to help with expansion though, so they'll probably be a bit slow to start.

Pacal has an excellent UB, lowering the need for HR. UU is handy, but nothing special.

Hannibal has superb traits. I'd expect Stonehenge to be built by this team.

Cyrus scares me a little. Immortals are the 3rd best UU in my eyes, behind Quecha and War Chariots. With IMP, they'll take more land, and with CHA, they should have the population to counter the maintainance costs. If our REX can match or better theirs, we're in a very good position to win IMO.
 
I note that no-one has an Industrious leader, which means we're all on even ground for wonders (excluding Stone or Marble on the map), which is nice to know.

No Protective civs either, which is no surprise. Surprisingly no Organized civs either (it's a fairly decent trait).

Out of all of the picks, Cyrus and Gandhi are the interesting ones to me - everyone else picked fairly standard demogame leaders. AMAZONs are obviously hoping for an Immortal rush with Cyrus - no other reason they'd pick him over Darius, as Darius is generally better in the long term with his traits. With TheMeInTeam on their team, I'd say this is exactly what they're planning (I play with him every week, and this is a standard strategy for him). Let's hope they're not too near us, or that we have Copper if they are. Gandhi is less threatening, and to be honest I'm slightly surprised by this pick (it's probably the weakest out of all the leaders chosen for demogame-style play), but we'll see what happens - Mavericks has a lot of strong players, so I'm sure they'll pull through.

I'll do a more detailed analysis of the civs (and the teams themselves) when I have a bit more time. :)
 
We all know the Game enough to understand our Civ/Leader choice is for the long term.

Immortals is probably the best UU, but some spear is enough to deal with them.
Not clear why Gandhi is in advantage for the Oracle, he's only one cheap tech in advantage and he can't go straight there if he wants avoid to be warrior-rushed.

I think in any case we need to be very aggressive in the opening, possibly negating to our neighbors the resources to defend themselves. If we manage this, no UU can impress us. I know TMIT is a good player, but there're no top players in this competition.

With a well planned opening (and with resources) we can do what we want to arrive to see our dikes.
 
Finally getting around to my in-depth analysis.

Civs

Amazons - Cyrus (Cha/Imp, Agriculture/Hunting)
CDZ - Ragnar (Fin/Agg, Fishing/Hunting)
Mavericks - Gandhi (Spi/Phi, Mysticism/Mining)
Merlot - Pacal (Fin/Exp, Mysticism/Mining)
Quatronia - Hannibal (Fin/Cha, Fishing/Mining)
Sirius - Willem (Fin/Cre, Fishing/Agriculture)

Trait analysis

Financial - 4
Charismatic - 2
Aggressive - 1
Creative - 1
Expansive - 1
Imperialistic - 1
Philosophical - 1
Spiritual - 1
Industrious - 0
Organized - 0
Protective - 0

So, four civs share the Financial trait - no surprises there. The two teams that got left out (Mavericks and Amazons) will have a slightly harder time keeping up with the rest of us in tech, although alliances will no doubt balance that out somewhat. Two teams are Charismatic (Amazons and Quatronia), so they'll have slightly more promoted units and larger cities. They could potentially be looking for early wars to make use of their bonus on promotions.

One team is Aggressive (CDZ), so they'll be more likely to be trying to go to war early on to make as much use of their trait as possible. Our team is the only Creative one, so nobody else will be able to compete with our early-game border pops, not to mention our cheap Libraries, which is nice. Only one team is Expansive (Merlot), so they'll be the only ones getting the benefits of the faster Workers and cheaper Granaries. One team is Imperialistic (Amazons), so they'll be building Settlers faster than anyone else, not to mention being more inclined to war early for those bonus Great General points. Mavericks were the only team that picked two completely unique traits - Spiritual and Philosophical. So they alone will be able to switch civics back and forth quickly in wartime and peacetime, and will be churning out great people at a quicker rate than the rest of us.

Tech analysis

Fishing - 3
Mining - 3
Agriculture - 2
Hunting - 2
Mysticism - 2
The Wheel - 0

Half of the teams started with Fishing (CDZ, Quatronia, and us), so assuming that all the starts are fairly similar (coastal with seafood), these teams may get a slight advantage early on compared to the other three (Amazons, Mavericks, Merlot). Half started with Mining (Mavericks, Merlot, Quatronia), so assuming the other starts are similar (with Gold/Silver/Gems), these teams will have an added incentive for building a Worker ASAP. Interestingly, assuming all the starts are similar to ours, Quatronia will be in the best position to utilize their tiles, being the only ones to start with both Fishing and Mining.

Two teams start with Agriculture (Amazons and us), so we'll both be able to build farms and research Animal Husbandry from the start. Two teams start with Hunting (Amazons and CDZ), so they'll have Scouts while the rest of us will have Warriors. Starting with a Warrior is actually much better in this game, because Scouts are much less useful with huts turned off. Three teams lack both Agriculture and Hunting (Mavericks, Merlot, and Quatronia), putting them a long way from Animal Husbandry and even further from Chariots. Two teams start with Mysticism (Mavericks and Merlot), so it'll likely be one of those two who founds Buddhism and/or Hinduism.

Interestingly, no-one started with The Wheel, meaning that nobody will be able to build roads from the start, nor will anyone be a single tech from Chariots. This is good to know.

Unique Units/Buildings

Amazons: Immortal/Grocer - Obviously we can all see the imminent threat here, especially with their trait combination. We'll have to watch out for these guys if we start nearby them.

CDZ: Beserker/Trading Post - If this turns out to be an islands or continents type map, this team will certainly be extremely potent at sea. We'll have to keep an eye out for them.

Mavericks: Fast Worker/Mausoleum - Not particularly threatening, but these bonuses will still give them a leg up throughout the game.

Merlot: Holkan/Ball Court - The UU will save them if they start near the Amazons, and the UB is very nice indeed for the huge extra happiness.

Quatronia: Numidian Cavalry/Cothon - Not such a useful UU, but the UB could be okay if this is a map heavy on coast.

Sirius: East Indiaman/Dike - Obviously we all know these come fairly late, but are very useful. If we can hang on until this stage in the game, we should be set.

Rival analysis

Amazons - The team of the slightly dodgey female images. Probably the most well known player on Team Amazon is TheMeInTeam. He's a fairly strong player, and I expect his opinions will hold some weight on their team. He's used to very fast paced games though, so may be a bit out of his comfort zone here. As for some of the other players, most of us who played in the last game will be familiar with Sommerswerd. Let's just say he's an opinionated guy. ;) Depending on how much influence he has over his team, it's possible it may end up being a bit of an anarchy. If this is the case, they may be slightly less efficient with their empire management, but they will be much more unpredictable (and unreliable) diplomatically. (Anyone who was in the last game knew that Sommerswerd's team were a handful to communicate with!) To sum up: A reasonably skilled but unpredictable team which has picked an extremely military leader; I expect to see them making and breaking many deals and warring early. I would be disinclined to trust them as an ally. Let's hope they're far away from us.

CDZ - They joke around a lot, but don't let that fool you... they're quite experienced with civ. The most vocal member is BCLG100, who is also a pretty decent player. His strategy always seems to tend towards early rushes, and with an Aggressive leader pick I'd suspect this even more. Many of the other members of the team are also highly experienced civvers (such as Matrix and Akots), who are not only good at the game itself but also skilled at diplomacy, so there is no doubt that they will lead a potent team. In essence: A very strong team which may be inclined towards an early rush; the difference between them and the Amazons being that CDZ will probably be more reliable diplomatically. If they start next to us they could be a problem, but providing they're far enough away they could make valuable allies at some point against a third party.

Mavericks - This team has quite a lot of extremely good Civvers. To mention just a few, there's DMOC, Niklas, Obsolete, KingMorgan, and Snaaty. Their leader choice was an interesting one for a democracy game, slightly weak in my opinion but I'm sure they've got a detailed plan to make the most of it. DMOC and I were on the same team in the last game, so it's possible we'll be on more amicable terms when we first meet; but then again Niklas was on the arch-rival team in the last game. So I'm not quite sure what to make of the Mavericks, on the whole. Potentially they could be good allies if we strike the right tone, but they could also be formiddable enemies should they decide to work against us. I think it all depends on when we meet them: knowing DMOC and Niklas, they will probably push for an alliance with the first team they meet, so let's hope that either we're right next to them or as far away as possible.

Merlot - A slightly unusual team, structured so that one player is always dictating the moves each turn (perhaps with slight influence from the sidelines). In a way this makes them quite a formiddable opponent if they pick a strong player to lead them, which they have done with their initial pick of Indiansmoke. There are also other strong players on the sidelines that they could pick in future, such as Donovan Zoi and slaze. Because one player calls all the shots, if they know what they're doing then they can micromanage and run a very efficient civ indeed. When it comes to diplomacy, I'm not sure how they'll structure things, but presumably the current leader will have the majority of the say on how relations with other teams progress. This could make them quite a good ally if the right person is consistently leading the team, but could also make them quite unreliable as allies if their leadership (and thus their opinions regarding diplomatic relations) are changing rapidly. I think we'll have to adopt a "wait and see" approach with this team.

Quatronia - The smallest team, but not without their share of good players (Earthling and RegentMan, for instance). Because of their small team size, the more experienced players may actually have more influence, meaning they may actually run quite a decent civ. The wildcard here is probably how active Provolution is on the team, as that will probably influence their foreign policy a lot. In my experience he's a bit of a weird and unpredictable guy. He seems to like to role play a lot: he has a large number of very strong opinions, and likes to throw his weight around in diplomacy, but doesn't actually seem to care much for the fundamentals of micromanaging a civ well in-game. In essence, he's mostly talk and not much else. However, if we get on his bad side we could make an enemy for life, so we'll have to be careful. To sum up: again, I'll have to wait and see with this team, but depending on who's calling the shots they could potentially make decent allies. The one thing I'm worried about is whether they might implode due to their very low membership.

Now obviously the above are just my opinions, and some people may disagree with me (and maybe I'll be proved wrong on some things). But if my opinions provoke discussion, so much the better. If you have any criticisms or comments to add to my analysis, feel free to do so. :)
 
Some random thoughts triggered by Lord Parkin's excellent and detailed analysis above.

Amazons and their leader choice scare me, as far as the early game goes. If we start near them, and we don't find copper, we will die. Let's just hope they start next to Maya and away from us.

This team alone is enough to make me prefer early hammers to early commerce, as we will need to both explore well to find our copper (and find out if we're near them or not), and not delay too long on the settler to make sure we hook it up. We will at least have the lead though in any culture war with someone over copper. Once we have copper though, we're out of any immediate danger from UUs. So early commerce wouldn't particularly help us survive (as researching bronze won't take long if we do it first), it would just be a head start on the mid-game tech race.

With fast workers, a philosophical leader and Obsolete on the team, I'm expecting Mavreicks will be running a heavy wonder/specialist economy, making up for not being financial. No team has industrious, but I expect we can think of Mavericks as the industrious team. If we don't start near this team, it's going to be very important to watch the religeon, wonder and great-person-birth announcements to know what they're up to. We need to know if they have stone or marble, as well as roughly what tech path they're taking, so that we don't end up losing too many wonder races to them.

Every other team in the game (including us) is financial with a side trait that helps either expansion or war. We're the team best set up for the very late stages of the game, with our Dikes good for late game hammers, and creative allowing us to settle our cities with a longer term view (i.e. we don't need to settle in a way that fits things into the inner ring).
 
This is really useful, thanks. Like Irgy, I am very much in preference of early hammers over early commerce. For this reason, I think I prefer a workboat workboat start here (but we of course don't need to decide on that for a while).
 
Looking back at this compared to the current diplo state is very interesting. We're best friends and immediate neighbors with the team most people were worried about, Amazons.

If it ends up as 4v2 like the early diplo seems to be going, we'll have Willem, Cyrus, Ragnar, and Hannibal vs Gandhi and Pacal.

Clockwise I think it's this, right? Or are Mavericks our neighbor to the counter-clockwise?

Sirius, Amazon, Merlot, CDZ, Mavericks, Quatronia.

A, A, B, A, B, A
 
I thought I heard someone say Mav and Quatronia were around the other way... in that case it would be AABAAB.

Either way, it's interesting to see the difference in the present situation to the pre-game analysis. ;)
 
I hope it is AABAAB, because if so then we're not stuck as the only team too far away to grab land when the inevitable war starts. And settling the western spoke doesn't mean taking it from an ally.
 
Yeah there was some confusion because a Quatronian workboat met the Amazons in Maverick waters, so those contacts all came in at once. They've confirmed that it's AABAAB.
 
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