Prediction Thread

[hobbsyoyo]

I think this was @Gori the Grey's idea but I'm tired of waiting for it because I actually had a prediction I want to call. Share you predictions for whatever you want here but let's try and avoid political discussion. You can state a political prediction (who you think will win and why) succinctly, but I'd prefer if people do not soapbox on politics and I don't want push back on anyone else's political predictions. You can debate non-political predictions here all you like but we already have a multitude of political threads to fork off into if you feel the need to debate politics.

Not RD because I want to have fun but please let's not trash each other here.

Might be a candidate for a serialized thread if it works out and is popular.
Edit: We probably should not serialize this because that would make it harder to trace predictions across threads.



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My prediction is about the results of the United States Air Force's (USAF) launch competition which should wrap up in Q1 of 2020. The USAF is having a competition to see which rocket companies will be able to sell rides to it for national security missions. They will pick two winners with a 60/40 split between them for contracts. The competitors are:

ULA with the Vulcan-Centaur rocket

Spoiler :

Blue Origin with the New Glenn Rocket

Spoiler :

SpaceX with Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy and/or Starship

Spoiler :

Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems and the OmegA rocket

Spoiler :

I predict that the winners of the competition will be ULA and Northrop. I also predict that the rational from the Air Force is going to be that SpaceX is viable on purely commercial sales and is already certified for USAF launches and thus is a freebie back-up third option. The subtext will be that ULA is not viable without military launches and OmegA can survive on scraps (executives there say they can make profit with only two launches a year and they have a track record of achieving similar results) should the budget for military launches collapse.

 

[MaryKB]

I predict I'm going to be incredibly happy tomorrow.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

My next prediction is that Warren will run with Buttigeig on the Democratic ticket and will beat Trump by a significant margin.

 

[MaryKB]

My next prediction is that Warren will run with Buttigeig on the Democratic ticket and will beat Trump by a significant margin.

I've got a Warren yard sign!

 

[aimeeandbeatles]

My next prediction is that Warren will run with Buttigeig on the Democratic ticket and will beat Trump by a significant margin.

My prediction is that there will be a lot of jokes about Buttgieg's name.

 

[Zardnaar]

My prediction is that there will be a lot of jokes about Buttgieg's name.

I predict he will be behind in the polls.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I predict that soccer (football) players will have to wear helmets within the next 10 years. It will start in youth leagues in the US and spread outward to adult international leagues. Adoption will be slow at first and widely ridiculed and then will happen very quickly as governing bodies bow to the research and a growing number of lawsuits. I don't think the helmet will be nearly as big and bulky as American Football helmets. Probably even smaller than Hockey helmets.

 

[Zkribbler]

I predict that soccer (football) players will have to wear helmets within the next 10 years. It will start in youth leagues in the US and spread outward to adult international leagues. Adoption will be slow at first and widely ridiculed and then will happen very quickly as governing bodies bow to the research and a growing number of lawsuits. I don't think the helmet will be nearly as big and bulky as American Football helmets. Probably even smaller than Hockey helmets.

As a lad, I remember reading that the first baseball catchers to wear gloves were considered to be sissies.

I don't think I'll make any predictions, I foresee nothing but disasters and crumbling civilization.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

I predict that soccer (football) players will have to wear helmets within the next 10 years. It will start in youth leagues in the US and spread outward to adult international leagues. Adoption will be slow at first and widely ridiculed and then will happen very quickly as governing bodies bow to the research and a growing number of lawsuits. I don't think the helmet will be nearly as big and bulky as American Football helmets. Probably even smaller than Hockey helmets.

Doesn't make much sense for a sport played exclusively with your feet. Maybe for the goalkeeper, who occasionally have to dive head first between a forest of legs armed with cleat boots.

 

[AmazonQueen]

Doesn't make much sense for a sport played exclusively with your feet. Maybe for the goalkeeper, who occasionally have to dive head first between a forest of legs armed with cleat boots.

Headers don't use your feet.

 

[tjs282]

Headers don't use your feet.

And might be more difficult/ impossible to execute if a helmet was worn.

Also @hobbsyoyo, I think you're slightly overestimating the likely present/future influence of the US soccer association(s?) over FIFA/ international soccer rules.

I mean, out here in NotTheUSA, even pro rugby-players don't routinely wear head-protection, beyond maybe a lightweight scrum-cap to cover their ears (discretionary, non-obligatory). So while soccer-helmets might happen in the USA, I don't think the idea has much likelihood of catching on anywhere else in the world.

And my 'prediction' is therefore that if US soccer-players were ever to enter international competition wearing helmets, they'd simply be laughed at

 

[hobbsyoyo]

10 years is a lot of time for change. I don't think at heart anyone wants concussed kids or adult players and I think it is just a matter of time before people take the growing evidence that headers and accidental collisions hurt people over time and should be mitigated.

Headers don't use your feet.

I have seen some studies which talked about the damage that a career full of headers (starting in childhood) is detrimental though not nearly to the same extent as tackling in American football. That's why I think the helmets will be less bulky and padded.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

Surely helmets protect against damage to the outside of the head, or against things penetrating into the head. How are they going to protect the brain from the effects of concussive trauma? Unless they have substantial padding of course, but then they'll just soak up the energy of the ball making it impossible to head the ball efficiently. At which point you'd have to put more effort and force in to get the same result, probably resulting in increased neck injuries

I honestly can't see that happening though, and would kind of despair if it did.

 

[rah]

I used to frequently play golf with Emile Francis, "The Cat" who played goalie in the NHL before they wore masks. He calls all the modern goalies sissies. He's amazingly coherent for his age and how many pucks he probably took to the head. In all fairness this was before the sticks were curved so it was harder to lift the puck which meant there weren't as many high shots.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

How are they going to protect the brain from the effects of concussive trauma?

The padding absorbs a bit of the energy but also increases the amount of time that it takes for a given amount of force to be transferred into your brain which means less acceleration on it.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

Yeah but see my edit. But still... no thanks (and I'm not even a football fan).

 

[civvver]

Ravens are winning the super bowl against the Seahawks.
Clippers are winning the NBA title over the Bucks.
My company will not give out bonuses this year.
The new star wars movie will be better than the last one but still be a let down in some way.

 

[civvver]

I predict I'm going to be incredibly happy tomorrow.

Because?... Date night?

 

[Synobun]

It hampers my MASCULINE ENERGY for there to be fewer concussions in sport. Anyone who dares wear protection shall be MOCKED. It is entertainment, and one of the things I love to see most is catastrophic brain damage in an athlete's later years once their body is too broken to keep playing. You AMERICANS are SISSIES, unlike us non-Americans who get concussed and LIKE IT.

 

[Broken_Erika]

I predict that more people will post things here.