Presidential Primary and Election thread

[onejayhawk]

The voting starts in less than two months. It seems like a good time to start a thread devoted to the subject, rather than having dozens splintered all over.

As of today, my personal handicapping is Dean 1-3, Gephardt 4-1, rest of field 20-1. In other words, unless something far out of the ordinary happens, Howard Dean will be the Democrat candidate for election in November. Only Gephardt is poised to even try make a serious race of it.

This has spurred a side topic. Once the candidate of the moment, say Dean, receives the nomination, he will able to fire McAuliffe, and use the DNC campaign funds to his own liking. Since McA is thought by many to be a Clinton mouthpiece, this would require B&H to form another organization to collect money to run their agenda. I have heard that this has already happened, but I did not catch the name.

Does anyone have any light to shed?

J

 

[The Yankee]

Sigh....I don't know if the Democratic primary will be decided once it hits New York....usually the race is finished by "Super Tuesday."

If I do go and register as a Democrat, I'm not too sure who I would vote for however. Right now, all I see is a race that I don't know where it'll go.

It does seem likely Dean will emerge as the Democratic winner.

As for this funding thing you brought up, haven't heard anything about it yet.

 

[cgannon64]

I think Dean will win. The more important question, IMO, is who does he take as his VP? Does he take another contender or someone else?

 

[SeleucusNicator]

I think you're being far too generous to Gephart, jayhawk. He has a chance to win Iowa. That's about it.

I don't see him leading in polls anywhere else. Or do you have access to superior polls than do I?

 

[onejayhawk]

Actually its Super Tuesday that he would be shooting for. I dont have access to any polls that dont run in newspapers. Its more a strategy thing.

He needs a decent showing in NH, and a win in Iowa, while exerting his main focus on the 2nd and 3rd round of states. The idea is taht if he can survive the first three weeks, then he should do well in the southern states that repressent Super Tuesday. Its a longshot, but its what he's got. He has the experience and the team to attempt such a, to use a football term, draw play.

It could blow up in his face. He has to spend time and resources away from NH and Iowa to get a lead on Dean, which means he is vulnerable to getting skunked by 30 points, which would kill him outright. As I said, a longshot.

J

 

[Skullbones]

This may sound really odd, but I could swear I read that many states were planning on skipping the primaries. Is the cold medicine getting to me or what?

 

[pomsa]

Originally posted by SeleucusNicator
I think you're being far too generous to Gephart, jayhawk. He has a chance to win Iowa. That's about it.

I don't see him leading in polls anywhere else. Or do you have access to superior polls than do I?

What?? He WILL win! Gephardt and (to be filled in at a later date) will defeat Bush, and maybe I'll be given a staffer position for my hard, hard work at getting him elected, running the Young Democrats for Gephardt of Los Angeles

 

[ShiplordAtvar]

What I would like to see is one of the two major parties have enough gumption to hold every states primary on the same day.

 

[The Yankee]

True, I don't like the fact that much of the primary is decided by Iowa, New Hampshire, and if it's close, South Carolina.

@Skullbones- you may have heard certain candidates not bothering to show up for certain primaries, such as Libermann and Clark in Iowa. Every state has a primary, but by the time the bulk of the states gets through, I don't think too many people bother to vote in the later primaries.

 

[taper]

I'm not sure I like how primaries are run these days. It's too easy for people from the other party to flood the polls and nominate the nobody candidate that has no chance against their party. If both sides do this, we get two people running for President that nobody wanted in the first place. This is partially the reason Gray Davis got re-elected in Calf., and why I feel the best candidate in the last few elections(on either party), did not receive the nomination

 

[onejayhawk]

Originally posted by ShiplordAtvar
What I would like to see is one of the two major parties have enough gumption to hold every states primary on the same day.

Since this is decided by state legislatures, its a long shot.

Originally posted by taper
I'm not sure I like how primaries are run these days. It's too easy for people from the other party to flood the polls and nominate the nobody candidate that has no chance against their party. If both sides do this, we get two people running for President that nobody wanted in the first place. This is partially the reason Gray Davis got re-elected in Calf., and why I feel the best candidate in the last few elections(on either party), did not receive the nomination

This is also decided state by state. California has been particularly bad about scaring off anyone decent. If I am not mistaken, the rules make it almost necessary to be rich enough to fund your own campaign. Something about campaign finance reform, but I could be wrong. I was fortunate enough to vote Bush for Governor twice.

J

 

[Sims2789]

i'd vote for whichever Democrat wins the primary. but i hope it isn't Dean or Leiberman. Dean is unelectable(although i support his veiws) and Leiberman is to conservative.

 

[Pontiuth Pilate]

Well if DEAN is unelectable then who exactly do you think IS?

Don't tell me you're still rooting for the Iron Lady?

Footnote: The Iron Lady was the term traditionally used to refer to Hillary Clinton, leader of the Lieberals [flourished approx. 1990s, President 1992?-2000]. Several prehistory researchers [see Walter, Briggs, in Bibliography] have decided it refers to Margaret Thatcher [f. 1980, leader of the Brits]; this is sadly in error, though the latter sachem [or "wanker", the usual appellation used by the prehistoric tribes to denote a personage of great political power] was also known for her courage and resolve. The British PM, however, was better known by the ceremonial title "Iron Hairdo".

 

[SeleucusNicator]

Originally posted by Pontiuth Pilate
Well if DEAN is unelectable then who exactly do you think IS?

Wesley Clark and Joe Lieberman. They're the only two that have any hope of winning in the South.

Dean will not take a single southern state and will be lucky to take more than 12 or 15. I'll bet you anything for that.

 

[Norlamand]

It seems a bit foolish to me to spend so much time speculating over who will get to lose to G.W. Bush. Personally I hope it is Dean because I too think he is unelectable. Only because he is such a flip-flopping loudmouth. I'm sure he'll have the support of the Klan though.......

 

[Archer 007]

The only reason I dont support Clark and Liebarman is that they are too close to Bush. If the people want that style of leadership, then they should vote for the real McCoy.

 

[amadeus]

Dean is the only one with a chance at winning the primary, if you ask me.

Wesley Clark is like a movie that got audiences so excited that everyone rushed out and saw it in the first weekend, and after that, got a pretty mediocre performance for every other following week.

 

[Pontiuth Pilate]

A centrist won't win this election... and neither will a whiner. Dean is both.

 

[amadeus]

That's why I said primary.

Any centrist won't win the primary unless they are Bill Clinton good at politics and none of them are.

Dean will get his butt kicked if he does get the nomination. He's the worst of both worlds in the political world - anti-war and pro-taxes. I guess for short we should call him "McMondale."

 

[Smidlee]

I believe Ali Gore will win ...huh... oh well ! Bill said he can't run