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Probabilities of goody huts, C3C

Discussion in 'Civ3 Strategy Articles' started by Oystein, Jul 7, 2004.

  1. Oystein

    Oystein Chieftain

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    I made an excel file to calculate the probabilities of goody huts.

    You can check on/off the option that are not posible, and the table will be updated. Or you can look at the picture and calculate yourself. The upper table are for expansionists, and the lower for others.

    Condition needed for the different goodies.
    (copied from Apolyton)

    Gold:
    --The tile must not have any type of resource or luxury on it.

    Maps:
    --always available

    Nothing:
    --always available

    Settler:
    --Player must not have a settler (active or in production) or any unit with the Settle AI strategy.
    --Player must have less cities than (TotalCities / NumActivePlayers).

    Mercenaries (skilled warrior):
    --There must be a unit available to the Barbarians as well as the player and that unit must be able to be built (or have been built) by some player in the game.

    Tech:
    --Player must still be in Ancient Times.

    Barbarians:
    --Player must not have Expansionist trait.
    --There must not be a city within a 1-tile radius.
    --The player must have at least 1 city.
    --The player must have at least 1 military unit.
    --The unit popping the hut must not have the "All Terrain As Roads" ability.
     

    Attached Files:

  2. superslug

    superslug Still hatin' on Khan Moderator Hall of Fame Staff

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    Do you have the Sid-hut exceptions factored into this? Human players will never pop techs from a hut on Sid...
     
  3. Oystein

    Oystein Chieftain

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    Yes, but I would not call it an exception.

    Take a look on the column to the right in the picture (the numbers under Sid). You will see that expansionist can only get gold, map and warrior (equal probability. None-expansionists will only get map, warrior and barbarians (clear overweight of barbarians).

    On deity you will never get a city, but settler is quite likely for expansionists.
     
  4. Arathorn

    Arathorn Catan player

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    Thanks, Oystein. This is very cool. How was it verified/tested/created? I've not seen the information that would be required to go into this.

    Arathorn
     
  5. Oystein

    Oystein Chieftain

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    I have testet this with popping huts with different seed values. I change the seed with a hex editor, and see when the result changes. This mean I there is no statistical error. If I have made a mistake, the result is probably way off.
     
  6. Arathorn

    Arathorn Catan player

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    Interesting. So the seed stored is actually the next PRNG to be generated. And after its generation, the new "seed" is actually the next number? I was not aware of that. That might make a lot of this testing much easier.

    If I understand you, then with a Sid expansionist Civ, if the seed is, say, <(2**32)/3, then you get gold, seed between (2**32)/3 and (2**32)*2/3 is gold and seed greater than (2**32)/3 gives a warrior. Am I correct in my understanding?

    How many data points in the various ranges did you check, if I may ask? I'm just trying to understand the methodology.

    Arathorn
     
  7. Oystein

    Oystein Chieftain

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    No, it is not that simple. I spend quite some time to figure out how the prng worked, searching for prng algoriths. But now I know how it works, it is no problem to find the seed value needed to give the next number i want.

    For emperor, none expansionists:
    If the next number is between 0 and 0.05*(2**15), you will get a city. From 0.05*(2**15) to 0.15*(2**15) a tech...
    If the result is something that you cant get (ex: barbs for expansionists), there will be a redraw.

    I dont know how many tests I made. In the beginning I made a lot, because I did not now where the limits where, or even how the system worked. In the end I pretty much knew what the result should be.
     
  8. dmanakho

    dmanakho Chieftain

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    It is interesting that on Demigod level chances to get a tech are higher for Exp. civ. than on a level below.
     
  9. player1 fanatic

    player1 fanatic Fanatic

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    And odds for getting cities + settlers are best on Demigod too.
    No wonder I like playing Incas on demigod.
     
  10. diploled

    diploled Chieftain

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    Oystein,

    Do you know if the probability takes into account the settler when popping a hut by building a city?
    Elaborating an example: suppose you only have one settler, and it builds close to a goody hut, so it's popped by the build - will you have a chance to get a settler, or will the probability be zero because you 'still' had a settler when popping the hut?
    Thanks in advance!
     
  11. Pfeffersack

    Pfeffersack Chieftain

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    I think the rule is simply if you have a settler or just building one at the moment, you can't get one through a goody hut.I have no evidence for this, but it seems to be the "logical" solution for me.
     
  12. Oystein

    Oystein Chieftain

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    You cant get a settler or city when building a city, even if you use your last settler to build the city.
     
  13. diploled

    diploled Chieftain

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    Thanks a lot! I should have figured the city out by myself - can't have a city within another one's limits, duh! - players like me owe a great deal to researchers like you.
     
  14. Dragonlord

    Dragonlord Fantasy Warlord

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    @oystein: Very interesting stats!

    Just one thing: how come you have the probability of getting 'nothing' from a goody hut as '0' for all normal civs on any difficulty,and for Expansionists above Warlord?

    Unless I'm reading your diagram wrong, this can't be correct. I've never played below Regent, mostly Emperor and above, and I distinctly remember getting a 'this village has been abandoned' message every now and then!
     
  15. Oystein

    Oystein Chieftain

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    You are reading correctly.

    I also remember getting 'this village has been abandoned' quite often on the higher levels, but I have not seen one in a long time. The rules must have changed. I dont know when, but I guessed the probabilities was the same for c3c.

    Which verison are you playing?
     
  16. AlanH

    AlanH Mac addict, php monkey Super Moderator Supporter GOTM Staff

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    I've had deserted villages several times in recent Games of the Month, playing vanilla v1.29. I don't think Ainwood tinkers with the rules.
     
  17. Oystein

    Oystein Chieftain

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    Deserted villages also appears in lates patch of PTW.
     
  18. DaveMcW

    DaveMcW Chieftain

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    If you pop a settler in c3c and already have one, is it a 'nothing' or a re-roll?
     
  19. player1 fanatic

    player1 fanatic Fanatic

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    It's nothing.
    (that why you can get nothing even with Exp civs)
     
  20. Dragonlord

    Dragonlord Fantasy Warlord

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    I'm playing Conquests 1.22. I'm not sure when I had the last empty village, though - could have been in an earlier version.

    It could also be from popping a settler when you already have one, as player1fanatic says..
     

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