The dice is rerolled until a valid option occurs.
Probabilities of goody huts, C3C
- Thread starter Oystein
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What's your source for this?
I have supposed that all probabilities sum to 1 (a standard assumption in probability theory).
Thinking about it more, the dice rerolling, so to speak, I think would imply equal distribution over a sufficiently large number of trials. So, in the limit, couldn't we assume equal distribution, and then the probabilities would sum to 1?
Bonushütte (Civ3) – CivWiki
Equal is not quite it. Think about Demigod and expansionist tribe. Tech has a probability of 2/7 vs. 1/7 for the 5 other options. Remove the option to pop a city or a settler and it is 2/5 vs. 1/5 for the 3 other options. So the ratios remain intact.
Bonushütte (Civ3) – CivWiki
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Equal is not quite it. Think about Demigod and expansionist tribe. Tech has a probability of 2/7 vs. 1/7 for the 5 other options. Remove the option to pop a city or a settler and it is 2/5 vs. 1/5 for the 3 other options. So the ratios remain intact.
Assuming equal distribution, we have about 28.6 probability to distribute among the other possibilities. Since there exist 4 other possibilities, 7.15 probability among the four, so the probability of a tech would increase to 35.75 and the other three go up to 21.45. This would still give us about 100% for the sum of all probabilities.
The ratios remaining intact does sound more plausible to me, since it would involve fewer floating point number calculations.
Either way, the probability of getting a settler goes up for a non-expansionist if they don't have military units. Also for a city.
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