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Projections of The United States Senatorial Races of 2010

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Zarn, Feb 11, 2010.

  1. Zarn

    Zarn Le Républicain Catholique

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    Disclaimer- Must Read: While, I have no problem with personal endorsements and other contributions that are positive towards a certain candidate, political philosophy, or party, please try to focus on the races themselves. This is a projection thread, not a political debate thread. It's also not a battleground to flame other posters. Please, keep that in mind. I created spoilers, so it would be easier for people to read and navigate my opening post. I have also tried to make it easier to understand, for those who do not follow United States politics closely. By no means do I declare myself the ultimate expert of the 2010 Senatorial elections of the United States, so please do not address me as a know it all. I never claimed that. ;)

    Notes: I will get to more senatorial races, if all goes well. I may even add a proper closing :p. Any more I add, I will try to edit into this post. If you believe I made a mistake or was being harsh towards a party, please let me know. It is not my intention to trash either of the political parties. At least, it is not my goal in this thread. ;) Feel free to post any graphics, maps, etc... that you want. I'm looking for your input on how you think the Senate will shape up, so I can compare it to what I'm seeing. If you are going to post separate races, I would recommend spoiler tags. :cool:

    Spoiler Introduction/Background :
    The Senate races are now looking for trilling now than they did in late 2008, when everyone simply expected the Democrats to take a few more seats including Missouri and New Hampshire. When Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania flipped (sorry, but that is a flip-flop, if there ever was one) to the Democratic Party, it only looked worse for the Grand Old Party. That gave the Democrats 58 seats with two independents aligning with them, making the precious 60 seat 'supermajority.'

    Controlling these 60 seats makes it easier to suspend debate and call for a vote. This is critically is getting legislation passed quickly. Unfortunately for the Democrats, one of their 60 Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, an independent Democrat, was not cooperating with them on healthcare reform. This led to a long drawn out process, where support for the initiative was wavering back and forth. Eventually, support fell low enough to the point where both Democrats in Congress and the president himself took approval rating hits. Some were angry about no reform being passed. Others were angry at how ‘liberal’ (in The United States, it means left-wing) the legislation was. They were demanding more cooperation with the Republicans on the legislation, in order to moderate it. One common misconception is that these people want no reform. The reality is that polls indicate that the majority does want reform, but it simply does not like the current legislation. A third group actually considers the legislation too ‘conservative.’ All three of these groups play a vital role in the United States Senatorial Elections of 2010.

    In early 2010, the Republican Party managed to take the seat formerly held by the late Senator Edward Kennedy in a heavily Democratic state. Scott Brown of the Republican Party ran on the notion of being a 41st Senator. The 41st Senator would mean blocking the ‘liberal’ and/ or poorly constructed legislation in favor of more cooperation on healthcare. Lieberman was more cooperative by this point, so the Democrats were getting their 60 back. Brown’s opponent ran a terrible campaign and did not believe she needed to do the little things such as going out to a sports stadium and shaking people’s hands. The loss sent shock waves to the Democratic Party. The most shocking thing was that the late Edward Kennedy was the chief architect behind healthcare reform.
    As a result, we currently have 57 Democrats, 41 Republicans, and 2 Independents that are aligned with the Democrats in the United States Senate. Now, that I have given some background information; let’s get into the specific elections being held. :)

    Spoiler Pennsylvania (Currently D, Barely lean R) :
    Pennsylvania is known to lean towards the Democratic Party. As you know, Arlen Specter had defected to the Democratic Party. He faces two challenges. First, he must win the primary against a more liberal Democrat. While Specter is currently favored to win this primary with ease, there is a risk of him being labeled as not Democratic enough to earn the nomination. His second challenge is much harder. His likely Republican opponent Pat Toomey has opened up a small lead on Specter. Some say this is Toomey’s to lose, but I think the race is too close to say that. Still, Toomey has a slight advantage with liberal Democrats disliking Specter for not being Democratic enough and many of the moderate Republicans and Republican leaning independents hating his defection.

    Spoiler New York Special Election (Currently D, Likely D) :
    New York is considered a Democratic stronghold. However, their candidate Kirsten Gillibrand is not exactly beloved among the New York population. Her advantage is she has no strong opponent in a heavily Democratic state. Unless former Governor George Pataki runs (rather doubtful), this is Gillibrand’s seat to lose. If he does run, then Gillibrand is in for a tough fight.

    Spoiler New Hampshire (Open R, Lean R) :
    New Hampshire is considered to lean to the Demcorats, but it is also known for its independent streak. Kelly Ayotte is one the biggest Republican names in the state of New Hampshire and the likely Republican candidate for the seat. Paul Hodes is the Democratic opponent, who rather consistently trails Ayotte by several points. While Hodes is not gaining ground, Ayotte needs to make sure to keep the campaign going strong. She needs to increase her lead relatively soon to help her ability to win. Is she can do that over the next couple of months, I would call this likely R. If things remain the same, Hodes has a decent shot. However, Ayotte would still be favored.

    Spoiler Connecticut (Open D, Likely D) :
    Connecticut is considered a Democratic state. This race looked like a possible pick up for the Republicans, before the now unlikeable Senator Dodd decided not to run for re-election. Now, it appears that the Democrats do not have the burden of running with the baggage that Dodd gave them. This seat should remain in Democratic hands. Richard Blumenthal is the Democrat, and Rob Simmons and Linda McMahon are the likely Republicans.

    Spoiler Florida (Open R, Likely R) :
    Florida is also known for having an independent streak; however, it leans a bit more towards the Republican Party. There are two likely Republican candidates. Marco Rubio is the more likely of the two to win the nomination. His primary opponent is Governor Charlie Crist (who obviously is not running for governor this year ;) ). Crist is seen as too ‘liberal’ to Republican primary voters, paving the way to the once dark horse Rubio. Rubio is also a Cuban-American and fiscal conservative, which play out well with the Cuban-American voters who are bound to vote in the primary. The Democratic opponent is Kendrick Meek. Meek is losing to both Rubio and Crist in the polls by fifteen to twenty points. The only reason why I refuse to rate this as safe Republican is because Florida is not considered a Republican state, only Republican leaning. If this trend continues over the next couple of months, then Meek has no chance.

    Spoiler Ohio (Open R, Barely lean R) :
    Ohio is currently a swing state. The anti-Democratic fervor has hit Ohio, give Republican Rob Portman a slight edge in a race against Democrats Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner. However, there are still many undecided people out there. It really can go either way.
     
  2. downtown

    downtown Crafternoon Delight

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    I have a hard time seeing how a Democrat is able to win the Ohio seat. Lee Fisher is hardly an engaging guy in his own right, and is now tied to the less-than-popular Strickland administration at the hip. Jennifer Brunner doesn't have the same Strickland baggage, but accusations of incompetence dogged her at the Sec of State office.

    Rob Portman, tied to the Bush administration be damned, is a top flight Ohio GOP candidate...the best of a pretty deep bench. He's smart, experienced, has a strong political base of power and has a crazy fat wallet. Ohio's demographics are tilting towards Republicans anyway. I think Portman eventually opens up a more comfortable lead.
     
  3. warpus

    warpus In pork I trust

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    What does this all mean for the U.S. senate in 2010 then, and the whole majority thing? I mean, assuming that all predictions pan out.
     
  4. downtown

    downtown Crafternoon Delight

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    The Republicans are likely to win at least 5 seats (North Dakota, Nevada, Arkansas, PA and Delaware) making it 55-45, if the Democrats fail to win any of the open seats.

    More likely, I think the Dems find a way to steal at least one of the "Opens" (Florida, Ohio, Missouri, New Hampshire)...but we should be looking at a Democrat-controlled Senate with a majority in the 54-56 range.
     
  5. warpus

    warpus In pork I trust

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    They have 59 right now, right? And they seem to have a lot of problems getting their stuff through. Will these losses make it even worse?
     
  6. downtown

    downtown Crafternoon Delight

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    Well, there isn't too much of a difference between 52 and 59. Republicans in the Senate, with perhaps one or two exceptions, haven't showed much of an interest in trying to cooperate at all.

    Some believe that the Democratic leadership will focus less on trying to get an extra GOP vote/rouge dem, and more on what the base wants, since that is all that will be left.

    Speaking of leadership, everything may change because Harry Reid, the Senate Majority Leader, is toast. He is going to (badly) lose his reelection bid.
     
  7. warpus

    warpus In pork I trust

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    Cool, thanks, I feel like I know a bit more now about your weird system :thumbsup: (that's not the thumbsup graphic I meant to come up at all, but I'm too lazy to find the other one)
     
  8. Zarn

    Zarn Le Républicain Catholique

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    It can certainly range in partisan breakdown. Worst case is a loss of the Senate for the Democrats. It is not at all likely.

    For the Senate:
    GOP must gain PA, AR, NV, ND, CO, DE, WI, and IL. WI and IL would be the hardest. (Plus 8 for 49 seats)

    They must all win 2 of the following 3: NY special, CA, and IN. I would say CA is the hardest of the three. (Plus 2 for 51 seats)

    MO and OH and the best bets for Dem pick ups. In order to gain the Senate, the GOP must deend both. While the Dems have an outside chance at NH, FL is really s no go. Meek cannot compete with Rubio, who has surpassed Crist in polling.
     
  9. Godwynn

    Godwynn March to the Sea

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    I can't wait.
     
  10. downtown

    downtown Crafternoon Delight

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    I don't think the GOP has a chance in New York, Wisconsin, Indiana (Bayh is popular and the GOP candidate has just taken a royal beating), or CA. I kinda forgot about Colorado.

    Florida is interesting in that it is POSSIBLE that Rubio and Crist get into a total bloodbath in the primary, which lets a Democrat kinda sneak in there. Thats unlikely though.

    The Democrat's best chance is in Missouri, followed by New Hampshire (at least they have a demographic advantage in NH)
     
  11. JollyRoger

    JollyRoger Slippin' Jimmy Supporter

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    I think the Dems will hold onto PA and pick up 2-3 in MO, NH & OH.

    The GOP likely picks up ND, DE, AR, and NV, though I think the Dems have a small chance of holding onto AR & NV.

    Kind of suprising that Vitter would survive a primary in LA given his known prostitution and diaper fetish tendencies & that the GOP is the party of family values, but maybe there is something about family values I just do not understand.
     
  12. Cutlass

    Cutlass The Man Who Wasn't There.

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    The family values crowd only cares about 'do as I say, not as I do'. As long as someone is doing the saying, what they are doing just doesn't matter.
     
  13. Zarn

    Zarn Le Républicain Catholique

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    I guess we are going to have disagree on FL. If the Dems had an upcoming Rubio to battle the GOP Rubio or simply or a good old veteran Dem with some popularity, it would be different for me. Meek seems too weak.

    I was kind of doubting the competitiveness in the NY special, WI, IN, and CA. I just am not completely sure yet. Unlike CT, the polling has not been bouncing back for the Dems (actually it is erratic in the NY special). At least, I have not seen polling to to contrary. Likely, they all eventually will. I think IL will bounce back, too.

    That leaves ND, NV, CO, DE, PA, and AR in play for Dem seats and MO, NH, and OH for the GOP seats. So that is a range of Dems picking up 3 to Republicans picking up 6.

    60 Dems (and two INDs)- 38 GOP compared to 51 Dems (and two INDs) to 47 Republicans is actually quite a difference. You don't need to make sure all blue dogs are on board.

    If the seats end up the unlikely 50 GOP-48 Dems-2 IND, people question where Lieberman will stand. Whatever his decision, I'm sure he will take his sweet time deciding in the spotlight.

    You can bet the NH and PA races are big ones for the GOP. They need big names in the northeast. I also think taking CO and defending OH and MO go a long way in stopping the bleeding.

    I'll add more to the first post, later.
     
  14. bhsup

    bhsup Chieftain

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    Chances are, I will be voting for Robin Carnahan (D-MO) for Senate against Roy Blunt (R-MO) in the race to fill retiring Kit Bond's seat. She's been a wonderful Missouri Secretary of State. I don't really dislike Blunt intensely, but he rose too fast, almost immediately becoming Whip IIRC. Something went on behind closed doors and I don't like that. Interestingly, he's the ex-SoS for MO.

    My prediction, because I always vote for the winner ( ;) ), is that Robin Carnahan will take it home.
     
  15. Miles Teg

    Miles Teg Nuclear Powered Mentat

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    Indianna isn't going to flip. Bayh is the scion of the old family there, and pretty popular in his own right. What's more, Democrats came down on Coats like a wall of bricks, and he'll have a hell of a time turning things around. Keep in mind, narratives can be self-perpetuating. If Republicans think Coats can't win, then that leads to less money being shoveled his way, which makes things even harder.

    Colorado is a nasty situation for Democrats. For reasons I can't wrap my head around, Gov. Ritter didn't appoint Hickenlooper to the seat. While that does mean that Hickenlooper's running for Governor this year, it leaves a weak and untested former School super-intendant running for re-election.

    Bennet's approval ratings aren't that good, but his fund-raising has been much better than expected. He's got a challenge from state House speaker Andrew Romanoff, who's probably to his left. It doesn't look like the challenge will stick, but if it did, Romanoff looks a bit weaker than Bennet, but that may be more of a name recognition issue.

    Jane Norton, former Lt. Governor, looks like the strong pick, but she's not exactly a great campaigner. Still, in this election, even a generic Republican is the odds on favorite here. The Democrats best hope is that the tea partiers get behind some wingnut (Tancredo seems to be eying the governor's mansion, but he'd work) who'll loose the election for Republicans. That's a pretty significant threat considering how conservative Colorado Republicans are.

    On a side note, I'd also peg Robin Carnahan in Missouri as the Democrat's biggest single pickup opportunity, and the only one more likely than not. Blunt's the wrong kind of candidate for an anti-incumbent election cycle, and Carnahan's got the same combination of prestigious family name and personal support that Bayh does. There was a recent set of polls that showed her as being behind, but those look like an outlier to me.
     
  16. madviking

    madviking north american scum

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    Isn't Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) facing a really tough reelection? She's probably the incumbent with the toughest election to face. But Harry Reid is also going to have a tough reelection too. Imagine if the majority leader didn't survive this round! (it happened in '94, though, with the Speaker, right? Correct me if I'm wrong.)

    Nothing akin the '94 Republican Revolution is going to happen. The Republicans are making a lot of hype about winning a bunch of Dem seats. At most they are gonna pick up five seats. North Dakota, Delware, Arkansas, Nevada and Colorado/Pennsylvania.

    Scott Brown's victory was less of his victory than Martha Coakley's loss. As SNL put it, Coakley is so incompetent she couldn't beat Dick Cheney in a race for mayor of Berkeley. :lol:
     
  17. Miles Teg

    Miles Teg Nuclear Powered Mentat

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    Tom Daschle lost his seat and the majority leadership in 2004, which lead to Reid taking over the spot. Reid's probably more vulnerable than Lincoln is. Democrats have a fighting chance at retaining the seat if they can get Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman on the ticket instead of Harry Reid, but that's A: Not gong to happen, and B: Still an uphill fight.
     
  18. Bei1052

    Bei1052 Chieftain

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    I cannot state just how much I want Linda McMahon to win in Connecticut.
     
  19. Miles Teg

    Miles Teg Nuclear Powered Mentat

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    I like professional wrestling too much to wish anything but crushing defeat on her.
     
  20. JohnRM

    JohnRM Don't make me destroy you

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    I am not sure how to feel about the whole thing. On one hand, I've made a pretty significant leap toward the center, away from the right. I would go so far as to say that I would lean Democrat, more than anything, but I remain an independent.

    The Democratic Party has not been able to accomplish very much since the takeover. The Stimulus Bill was a fait accompli even prior to the 2008 General Election, so I really fail to see how the loss of a few seats would really matter. I have been alive long enough to know that the typical cycle of political leadership is this.

    The Republicans screw up and Democrats are elected. Democrats are not effective in governing the nation and Republicans are obstructionist. Republicans are re-elected and everyone remembers how bad they screw up. Democrats are elected and still ineffective. It goes on and on and on.
     

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