The consensus seems to be to found the 3rd city 1SW of copper. Votes on whether we should train an extra archer are evenly split, so I am going to go with Kylearan's view and start training settler right away. "The one who doesn't risk, doesn't win."
The plans for my turnset will be to finish the archer and start settler in Karakum, finish Granary and train Archers in Beshbalik, mine the gold, start road towards next city, and continue research towards HBR as quickly as possible.
1450(0) I move Beshbalik's citizen from grasslands to plains forest to make sure Granary completes before growth.
IBT: Barb archer is approaching Beshbalik from south-west, preventing me from starting road on the gold hill.
1420(1) Worker has to start roading deer to avoid wasting time. A warrior from Beshbalik move out to meet the Archer in the forest.
IBT: Jewdaism is founded in Pasagadae!
Barb Archer moves away.
1390BC(2) I move warrior onto gold hill and he finds himself next to barb archer.
Karakorum finishes archer, who goes north to help protect Beshbalik and starts Settler(13), while still working both cottages. (Cutting a turn off settler production doesn't seem worth the cost of not working a cottage for 12 turns.)
Archer goes to Beshbalik and will get there just in time to help stop barb archer if that archer captures gold hill.
Worker finished mine last turn and, after completing a road, will start roading towards copper city site.
I also reconfigure Beshbalik for faster growth (granary in 3, growth in 4).
IBT: Barb archer captures Gold Hill, but is down to 0.8 health.
1360BC(3) Workers work, armies march, cities build.
1330BC(4) Another barb archer appears. This one is to north-east of Beshbalik. Barb archer went up to 1.9 health and promoted C1, so I don't risk attacking him with our warrior. Our archer reaches the city. Instead I hide the woker in the city and let the cottage be pillaged.
IBT: Barb archer pillages cottage.
1300BC(5) Beshbalik completes Granary and starts Archer(10). Warrior moves out onto forested hill to prevent the 2nd barb archer from cutting the road. Archer fortifies in the city.
IBT: It turns out there was a warrior underneath that archer. Our warrior kills the archer, but loses to warrior. And there are 2 more Archers and a Warrior coming. This is beginning to feel like Epic 4.
1270BC(6) Karakarum interrupts Settler with Archer(6). Worker starts alternate road to Beshbalik.
I whip out a second archer at Beshbalik. Without ability to heal via promotions, we'll need at least 2 archers to stop this assault. I also notice that Granary in Beshbalik didn't seem to have any effect. The city is down to 1 food in the box. The only good thing is that the city expanded the borders, so there is now extra 20% cultural defense.
1240BC(7) Southern worker goes to help build new Beshbalik road.
1180BC(9) One of the workers is prepairing to road the gold. Seeling that Beshbalik situation is stabilizing, I again switch Archer and Settler in Karakarum's queue.
1150BC(10) Cyrus founds Arabela on the spot where we were planning to put copper town. We wouldn't have beaten him to it even if the settler's build was never interrupted.
I think this is a good time to stop and consider out options. I also see Toku's borders to the west, so we are completely hemmed in with our 2 cities. And with Pasagadae Cyrus' Holy City, it's going to start stealing tiles from Karakarum, instead of the other way around. What can we do to fight out of this hole?
I guess we could still found a 3rd city - a total iceball in the north, whose only useful tiles would be furs and copper, both in 2nd ring. However, it seems we'll have to prioritize commerce and try to do something with Keshiks with our 2 cities. The settler is still in the queue, but has to probably be removed and city reconfigured to stop growth.
The save.