Wow, this is going to be one TOUGH battle for you guys!
You drew the absolute worst choice for an opposing civ to sit with you on a small island, the Feud-defense Greeks! While that makes early war ugly, there are many benefits to a strike that hutrts him and takes Pharsalos and another city.
Let me give you some odds should you accept the mantle of war...
Vet horse vs fortified Reg Hoplite-win 25%, lose 40%, retreat 35%
Vet horse vs fortified Vet Hoplite -win 13%, lose 47%, retreat 40%
(That's if they're in a town or grass, it's about 25% worse on hill)
Expected Number of vet horses needed to take a city with TWO
hoplites on a single turn: 5 (losing 1) vs Reg, 6 (losing 2) vs Vet
Vet sword vs fortif. Reg Hoplite-win 52%, lose 48%, no retreat
Vet horse vs fortif. Vet Hoplite -win 33%, lose 66%
Expected Number of vet swords needed to take a city with TWO
hoplites on one turn: 3.5 (losing 1.3) vs Reg, 4 (losing 2) vs Vet
With their higher attack, you need less swords than horse, but due to slowness will lose more of them in the process.
If you siege instead of blitz, taking multiple rounds, and IF there is no barracks for them to heal, a 4 on 2 attack results are:
Vet horse vs Vet hoplites: win 37%, lose 60%, retreat 2%
Vet sword vs Vet hoplites: win 83%, lose 17%, losing 2 swords
For horses, chance to win goes to 55%/75%/87% with 5/6/7 horses.
If the silly hoplites are only regulars, not vets, and you have vets, your odds go way up! 4 on 2 swords wins 95%, 5 on 2 horses wins 88%. (Caveat - these calculations don't account for promotion on either side, which may be a factor)
Bottom line - with horses, attack with triple the number of defenders, and with swords, double the number of attackers.
Preferably in both cases, on a single turn, don't let them heal or reinforce.
(As an aside, Gallic Swords vs Hoplites or Numidian Mercs,
Vet vs Vet, win 28%, lose 40%, retreat 32%, number needed
to take in a blitz is 4.3 (losing 1.1), or siege wins 72% of 4 on 2,
but lose only 1 unit, compared to loss of 2 slower swords)
Those odds are really not THAT bad, considering the potential gain from going to war. It's all about concentration of power, if you can have 2-3 times the attackers at the spot you choose, you can overcome the hoplites. If they use non-vet hoplites, your vets will actually crush them, given a numerical superiority.
What about their counterattack? Let's say you're no dummy and have a rax and three vet spears defending, because you know when and where things are gonig to happen, while they're clueless.
Six regular swords will beat you, or five vets.
Nine regular horses are needed, or seven vets.
Eight regular archers will win, or six vets (if you don't get 'em first)
With the barracks on your side and this many attackers, promotions on your side definitely would be a factor. Conclusion from their counterattack: get sufficient numbers almost in place, and when you declare war, hit the cities quickly and deny their iron right away before they can make swords.
Regarding the 41 turns, the original smiley denoted it was a friendly ribbing

It's standard practice in our SG's to allow one or two extra turns under extenuating circumstances, as long as one person doesn't invoke that too often. A good opening, Urug.
Charistatistician
