[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine--Act 3: Ride of the Valkyries

[Rg339]

Besides, I don't see how nuking Ukraine will automatically make US use nuclear weapons - and if it doesn't, what is the point? nukes sort of evaporate any conventional forces there.
It's ok to assume the other side is bluffing, but then it'd better be bluffing, or you will look like an utter moron (obviously not you or other posters here, I mean proponents in high positions in countries).
I also see no reason why Russia will just do a u-turn and abandon everything, instead of using nukes against Ukraine - what more is there to lose, would China boycott it? At worst Turkey will be forced to let US/tied warships through the straits, which will allow @r16 to (at least briefly) enjoy a fireworks show.

Deterrence gets awfully complicated very quickly.

If Russia decides to use the big ones against Ukraine, the US will detect the launch. At that point, what does the US do?

US leadership is going to be uncertain as to the destination of the launch. Even if Putin communicates thru back room channels that Ukraine is the destination, there will be a great element of uncertainty, given the frequency with which he’s tactically used deception.

It’s entirely possible that a calculation is made at that point that it’s use it or lose it, and the US goes full bore, too, in an attempt to destroy Russia’s armaments before that opportunity is permanently lost.

Launching against Ukraine? Putin is effectively betting that there will be no response; he is, for all his faults, likely to be aware that it IS a gamble, that there may be a full-scale response made, either deliberately or in error. He’s going to know he is staking the entirety of Russia’s well being on this gamble, and that... just isn’t worth it, for what he’s gaining from this war.

 

[Kyriakos]

Deterrence gets awfully complicated very quickly.

If Russia decides to use the big ones against Ukraine, the US will detect the launch. At that point, what does the US do?

US leadership is going to be uncertain as to the destination of the launch. Even if Putin communicates thru back room channels that Ukraine is the destination, there will be a great element of uncertainty, given the frequency with which he’s tactically used deception.

It’s entirely possible that a calculation is made at that point that it’s use it or lose it, and the US goes full bore, too, in an attempt to destroy Russia’s armaments before that opportunity is permanently lost.

Launching against Ukraine? Putin is effectively betting that there will be no response; he is, for all his faults, likely to be aware that it IS a gamble, that there may be a full-scale response made, either deliberately or in error. He’s going to know he is staking the entirety of Russia’s well being on this gamble, and that... just isn’t worth it, for what he’s gaining from this war.

Can't be that difficult to detect what/how many nukes are launched to where. Otherwise if a nuke is fired from a submarine you'd be unable to establish if it came from China or Russia and preemptively nuke both.

 

[emzie]

Moderator Action: We're taking a breather, folks.