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I think it is a matter of prestigious.
Everything in this war is about Russia's prestige. That's why they started it, that's why they are afraid of losing it.
But MiG-31 is not just about prestige. These aircraft are employed as missile launch platform for all sorts of missiles that rain down on us daily.
 

And a lot of tanks

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Chasiv Yar. Another Donbas town among many that will soon cease to exist.

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Those aircraft are also engaged in defensive duties, in which case the loiter time and response times are very important, so placing them close to frontline is necessary.
I assumed that the Russians would have more sophisticated ground-based systems rather than sending up its fancier jets.
About 1500 km for the Migs and 3000 km for the Sukhoi. Which is longer maximum ranges than most current Ukranian missles afawk. But then if you want to flying artillery to turn up in any half-expedient manner, then maximum ranges are not something you want to be operating at.
I suppose if the surprise factor is something that’s contingent on spending as little time in the air as possible, then perhaps that is the case. I however was under the impression that the Ukrainians were struggling to intercept volleys by the MiG-31.
 
They have been using lots of methods.
Ground launched, launched from a fighter/attack aircraft relatively nearby, launched by a bomber relatively far away, launched from ships in the black sea.

Destroying any of the above limits Russia's ability to wage war but unfortunately they have seemingly large reserves.

Ukraine on the other hand is quite limited in what it can do. It has ground launched and some attack/fighter aircraft.
It's why the F-16 is so anticipated - it is another platform to allow them to launch different and probably much more accurate missiles.
 
Yet another technocrat, in addition to Nabiullina, Siluanov and others.

“Belousov . . . won’t pretend to lead the army like a general with all these medals. He’s a workaholic. He’s a technocrat. He’s very honest, and Putin knows him very well,”

Also, a reincarnation :)

Although, this is extremely high bar to meet.
More importantly, were Suvorov alive, he could lead the Russians to fight Putin, his sysyem, and its current inanities... No such luck however.
 
Once again, a major nation state like Germany exporting for 80 million is negligible.

At a macro economic level, sure, it's negligible.

But that's just to Kyrgyzstan, and the products that Russia will pay the middleman markup for are not necessarily just civilian goods. From Reuters:

Reuters said:
Although they remain relatively modest in value, German exports to Georgia rose by 92%, while those to Kazakhstan rose 136%, to Armenia 172% and to Tajikistan 154%.

Exports of motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts to Kyrgyzstan grew particularly strongly in the first quarter, soaring more than 4,000% from a very small base to over 84 million euros. Metal products, chemical products and clothing exports also increased by more than 1,000% apiece.

German exports to Turkey, seen as another route for goods to travel to Russia, also galloped ahead in the first quarter, rising almost 37% to just under 8 billion euros compared with an overall rise in German exports of 7.4%.

(Note the 80 million in the charts is monthly, so the 84 million of motor vehicle parts per quarter is about 1/3 of exports from Germany to Kyrgyzstan)

Clothing may not be of a particular concern, but metal products, chemical products, and motor vehicle parts could all be used in war production as well as for civilian uses. Even clothing could, depending on what type of clothing it is. A sudden surge in combat boots exports could be a reason for concern, a surge in Rammstein T-shirts, not so much.

And from Russia's side of it, if those Kyrgyz, Armenian, and Tajik imports are of parts for building weapons that they have difficulty producing locally - but for which most of the rest of the weapon can be produced locally - the influence can be much larger than the Euro value of the goods. If the imports are 5% of the cost, then 20 times the imports' value of weapons can be made with them. And the Turkish increase of 37% to €8B/quarter alone is worth an average of €723 million per month, nearly ten times the Kyrgyz increase. Even if we assume 7.4% of that is for Turkish domestic consumption, keeping with the overall average, that's €576M per month exported to Russia via Turkey, above the prewar amount, a significant sum.

Of course an economist working for the German government would likely have much more detailed insight into the categories and sub-categories of goods being exported, but I think it is worth the effort for the EU to dig into this and start adding restrictions where there is evidence of sanctions evasion that could aid Russia's war effort. The more hoops that Russia has to go through to import war-useful or dual-use goods, the more expensive it becomes for Russia and the fewer goods they receive, and thus the less difficult of a time Ukraine has, and in the end, the lower the amount of Western aid necessary in order to counter Russia, because Russia will be able to manufacture fewer weapons in the same period of time.

As for how to enforce it? If I were that German economist, I'd be evaluating what categories made up that huge increase in Kyrgyz exports. War-useful categories that went from near zero to significant sums, I'd recommend adding sanctions on exporting to Kyrgyzstan - aside from the middleman profits, it wouldn't affect Kyrgyzstan because they weren't importing it before anyway. Perhaps export quotas on categories that have legitimate civilian uses in Kyrgyzstan, but are dual-use and have seen increases. Did washing machine exports go from 400 a month to 4000? Put a quota at around 400, and enforce it; the Kyrgyz can still have their washing machines, but can't ship thousands of them to Russia to evade sanctions. And maybe even throw Kyrgyzstan a bone with lower tariffs on importing their goods, to give them an incentive to not just cozy up to Russia in response. Not saying it would be easy, but much like incremental progress can be made in patching up a leaky network of pipes, it should be possible to make the sanctions more effective than they have been so far.
 
At a macro economic level, sure, it's negligible.

But that's just to Kyrgyzstan, and the products that Russia will pay the middleman markup for are not necessarily just civilian goods. From Reuters:



(Note the 80 million in the charts is monthly, so the 84 million of motor vehicle parts per quarter is about 1/3 of exports from Germany to Kyrgyzstan)

Clothing may not be of a particular concern, but metal products, chemical products, and motor vehicle parts could all be used in war production as well as for civilian uses. Even clothing could, depending on what type of clothing it is. A sudden surge in combat boots exports could be a reason for concern, a surge in Rammstein T-shirts, not so much.

And from Russia's side of it, if those Kyrgyz, Armenian, and Tajik imports are of parts for building weapons that they have difficulty producing locally - but for which most of the rest of the weapon can be produced locally - the influence can be much larger than the Euro value of the goods. If the imports are 5% of the cost, then 20 times the imports' value of weapons can be made with them. And the Turkish increase of 37% to €8B/quarter alone is worth an average of €723 million per month, nearly ten times the Kyrgyz increase. Even if we assume 7.4% of that is for Turkish domestic consumption, keeping with the overall average, that's €576M per month exported to Russia via Turkey, above the prewar amount, a significant sum.

Of course an economist working for the German government would likely have much more detailed insight into the categories and sub-categories of goods being exported, but I think it is worth the effort for the EU to dig into this and start adding restrictions where there is evidence of sanctions evasion that could aid Russia's war effort. The more hoops that Russia has to go through to import war-useful or dual-use goods, the more expensive it becomes for Russia and the fewer goods they receive, and thus the less difficult of a time Ukraine has, and in the end, the lower the amount of Western aid necessary in order to counter Russia, because Russia will be able to manufacture fewer weapons in the same period of time.

As for how to enforce it? If I were that German economist, I'd be evaluating what categories made up that huge increase in Kyrgyz exports. War-useful categories that went from near zero to significant sums, I'd recommend adding sanctions on exporting to Kyrgyzstan - aside from the middleman profits, it wouldn't affect Kyrgyzstan because they weren't importing it before anyway. Perhaps export quotas on categories that have legitimate civilian uses in Kyrgyzstan, but are dual-use and have seen increases. Did washing machine exports go from 400 a month to 4000? Put a quota at around 400, and enforce it; the Kyrgyz can still have their washing machines, but can't ship thousands of them to Russia to evade sanctions. And maybe even throw Kyrgyzstan a bone with lower tariffs on importing their goods, to give them an incentive to not just cozy up to Russia in response. Not saying it would be easy, but much like incremental progress can be made in patching up a leaky network of pipes, it should be possible to make the sanctions more effective than they have been so far.
Why would anyone read all this when they can just do business with China? In the big picture, the thing that sinks the west here is gonna be red tape...
 
Hm, for Germany it maybe worth looking into yes, they show a significant increase compared to to pre-war period, for others not so much, Austria for example is barely above the the “normal” variance, hard to see why they are included at all,

It appears to me the evidence is arranged in this peculiar fashion to make a particular point in regard to the EU rather than to examine the nature and desirability of trade to Kyrgyzstan.
 
As long as the two most populous countries in the world (India and China) are content to trade with Russia,
sanctions will achieve very little.

I think that there is a general reluctance to recognise the extent to which the west has already de-industrialised;
and that these days components are predominantly mainly made in Asia.

Even if the USA, EU, UK etc were to prevent back door export of western made components,
that wouldn't achieve anything more than a short delay.

This is because for:

(a) most things the Russian factory would merely ask Chinese and Indian companies to quote to provide that item; and for
(b) advanced products such as the very latest chips, the Russians would simply pay criminals to steal them for them.
 

Russia Seizes Deutsche Bank, UniCredit Assets​


A Russian court has ruled that Deutsche Bank and UniCredit's assets in the country are to be seized, documents showed.

European banks have largely exited Russia after Moscow launched its offensive on Ukraine in 2022.

A court in Saint Petersburg ruled in favour of seizing 239 million euros ($260 million) from Deutsche Bank, documents dated May 16 showed.

The same day, it ordered the seizure of around 463 million euros of assets belonging to Italy's UniCredit.

Both decisions were issued in answer to a request from RusKhimAlians, which was planning to build a major gas processing and liquefaction plant in cooperation with German company Linde, which pulled out of the project due to Russia's military campaign.

RusKhimAlians sued UniCredit and Deutsche Bank -- both guarantors of the project.

 
If those assetrs are in Russia, I wonder what they are worth on the market in rubles? If those asses are real estate or hard goods physically in Russia, the Euro value is no longer relevant. If rtheyare money on deposit at some Europ value, I doubt they can be redeemed for actual Euros.
 
As for how to enforce it? If I were that German economist, I'd be evaluating what categories made up that huge increase in Kyrgyz exports. War-useful categories that went from near zero to significant sums, I'd recommend adding sanctions on exporting to Kyrgyzstan - aside from the middleman profits, it wouldn't affect Kyrgyzstan because they weren't importing it before anyway. Perhaps export quotas on categories that have legitimate civilian uses in Kyrgyzstan, but are dual-use and have seen increases. Did washing machine exports go from 400 a month to 4000? Put a quota at around 400, and enforce it; the Kyrgyz can still have their washing machines, but can't ship thousands of them to Russia to evade sanctions. And maybe even throw Kyrgyzstan a bone with lower tariffs on importing their goods, to give them an incentive to not just cozy up to Russia in response. Not saying it would be easy, but much like incremental progress can be made in patching up a leaky network of pipes, it should be possible to make the sanctions more effective than they have been so far.
You do realize what you are suggesting here?

You want to put economic sanctions on third party nations that have no stake in this war one way or another for the crime of them not agreeing with your foreign policy decisions. That's a flagrant violation of international law as well as just plainly immoral.

This sort of heavy handed with us or against us politics is precisely the reason why most of the world despises OTAN and america and why they are in support of Russia in the first place. And it will only lead to further polarization of the world and further conflict as all the nations you oppress in your mindless quest end up allying with literally anyone that is against you on sheer principal alone.
 
As long as the two most populous countries in the world (India and China) are content to trade with Russia,
sanctions will achieve very little.
I think that underestimates what the impact would be with regards to supply chain logistics: everything that goes from China and India to Russia and vice-versa has to physically get there, and India has no land connection to Russia, and the bulk of Chinese trade is done via ship. It is more beneficial to the Russian economy to have access to European markets than not.

I think too there is a bit of a signal to these companies that investing in Russia is a risky proposition, and the Russians are going to have to offer more to compensate for that risk. These are not insurmountable problems, but they are problems.
 
You do realize what you are suggesting here?

You want to put economic sanctions on third party nations that have no stake in this war one way or another for the crime of them not agreeing with your foreign policy decisions. That's a flagrant violation of international law as well as just plainly immoral.

This sort of heavy handed with us or against us politics is precisely the reason why most of the world despises OTAN and america and why they are in support of Russia in the first place. And it will only lead to further polarization of the world and further conflict as all the nations you oppress in your mindless quest end up allying with literally anyone that is against you on sheer principal alone.
what's you're solution to stop Russia from "a flagrant violation of international law as well as just plainly immoral" war ?
 
@ Amadeus

Regarding India and Russia, the physical bulk of trade may be done by
ship, but high value specialist components can be air freighted.

Supplying components at a profit is not the same as investing in Russia.

Diversification of supply involves costs, delay and risks in getting the quality right; but the war
has been going on for over two years so Russia ought to have already surmounted that hurdle.
 
what's you're solution to stop Russia from "a flagrant violation of international law as well as just plainly immoral" war ?
Having a solution to your problem is not a requirement for pointing out why your solution is wrong. Especially not when that solution is to go around the world forcing countries to align with your foreign policy at gunpoint., economic or otherwise.

But if you do want my opinion it's fairly simple. Just apply the bare minimum of human decency and normal human behavior to international relations. Treat nations with respect and as equals. Be willing to understand support and pay them to make them your friends. And above all else don't think that just because you hold an opinion everyone else in the world must do so as well. Or that you have the right to force them to do so.

The reality is that most countries and most people frankly couldn't care less about Russia, America, the Ukraine or Martians for that matter. Nor should they. This is not their war to fight. They just want to live in peace and have economic prosperity. And what alliances they pick and which side they choose depends very little on any sort of ideological belief and mostly on what circumstances have forced upon them.

Look at for example North Korea and Iran. Do you think the people or leaders of those countries really, really love Putin? Of course not. But Putin is willing to pay for their weapons in hard currency and security guarantees. Where as the west is only ever willing to give them infinite grief. So they literally have no choice but to side with the Russians.

By contrast look at say Poland. Poland is not in OTAN because it really, really likes America or Germany. After all, their history with Germans is hardly any more favorable than that with the Russians. Nor are they supporting this war out of some sort of true brotherhood with the Ukrainian people. No, the reason Poland is aligned with OTAN is because the mentioned have shown remarkably little interest in invading them, conquering them and dismantling their nation to create a colonial subject since the 1990's where as Russia newer really gave up on doing so. Thus, just like North Korea and Iran the Poles don't really have a choice but to ally with the one half of the world that's not out to get them currently.

Bottom line is that if you just go strutting around the world like you are infinitely right and everyone that disagrees is your enemy than that is precisely what they will become. At best you will create unwilling subjects that bend to your will until the first time they can revolt. And at worst you'll be making open enemies.

TLDR: You don't make friends by threatening people with a stick.
 
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@ Amadeus

Regarding India and Russia, the physical bulk of trade may be done by
ship, but high value specialist components can be air freighted.

Supplying components at a profit is not the same as investing in Russia.

Diversification of supply involves costs, delay and risks in getting the quality right; but the war
has been going on for over two years so Russia ought to have already surmounted that hurdle.
Sure, I want to get right off the bat here and say I don’t think sanctions are the magic wand that will cripple Russia’s economy.

Those specialized components, I’m not sure exactly the kinds of things we are talking about in this case but I agree that the smaller ones can probably be sent via air freight with relative ease.

The investment question I think is a bigger one that goes without as much attention paid to as it should: does Russia want to become a resource colony, Europe’s Congo, for industrializing powers? Selling at a discount and buying at a premium?

I think that’s where they’re headed. Unless you are a megalomaniac tyrant, I would not make this trade for a chunk of Ukraine.
 
Ukrainian controversial mobilization law comes into force.
Kyiv has barred men under 60 from leaving the country since the start of the war, but some are exempt, including those who are disabled or have three or more dependent children. The Eurostat data does not specify how many of the men who have qualified for protection belong to these categories, nor how many others reached the EU from Ukraine's Russian-occupied territories in the east and south.

Unable to cross the border legally, some Ukrainian men risk death trying to swim across a river that separates Ukraine from neighboring Romania and Hungary.

Late on Friday, Ukraine’s border service said that at least 30 people have died trying to cross the Tisza River since the full scale-invasion.

Romanian border guards days earlier retrieved the near-naked, disfigured body of a man that appeared to have been floating in the Tisza for days, and is the 30th known casualty, the Ukrainian agency said in an online statement. It said the man has not yet been identified.

In other news, strike of truck drivers in protest against mobilization was reported, they blocked Kiev-Odessa road.
 
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