[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

[Ordnael]

Another great article from cepa.org, thanks @Snowygerry for showing this site.

It’s (Still) Costing Peanuts for the US to Defeat Russia

At the start of Russia's invasion in 2022, a cost-benefit analysis showed US aid to Ukraine is cheap and effective. Has anything changed?

cepa.org

 

[Zardnaar]

Commercial satellite photos of Russia Soviet stockpiles.

Very low on towed artillery. Pretty much done.

Apart from lying about how much they had the numbers here indicate in 12-18 months Russias done. The Soviet stockpiles of anything usable will be depleted. Not artillery across the board. Tanks, vehicles, SPG.

They won't run out entire due to new production but that's a trickle compared to refurbished stuff.

 

[Sarin]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-targets-western-russian-regions-with-drones-russian-officials-says-2024-09-18/

Major ammo dump near Toropets was hit by Ukrainian drones. The blast was strong enough to be picked up by seismic detectors, and forced partial evacuation of the city.

 

[Gedemon]

Russia's air defence units destroyed 54 drones that Ukraine launched overnight against five western Russian regions, Russian state news agencies cited a report from the Russian defence ministry as saying.
Regional governors reported no damages from those attacks.

But the defence ministry report did not mention the Tver region, which borders the Moscow region to its southeast.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-targets-western-russian-regions-with-drones-russian-officials-says-2024-09-18/

https://twitter.com/x/status/1836288318696210741

https://twitter.com/x/status/1836264666592383070

https://twitter.com/x/status/1836273801551650816

 

[Ordnael]

From the same article:
"Dmitry Bulgakov, then a deputy defence minister, told RIA in 2018 that the facility could defend weapons from missiles and even a small nuclear attack. Bulgakov was arrested earlier this year on corruption charges. He denies the charges."

Confirmation of use of tactical nukes by Ukraine?

 

[Sarin]

It's amazing how much damage can a falling debris from drone do.

 

[Yeekim]

Seems like everything is going according to plan.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

It's amazing how much damage can a falling debris from drone do.

More than a small nuclear weapons apparently. Light plastic debris is well know by its deadly properties.

That FIRMS image looks like a whole region is in flames btw. Pretty nice job by the Ukrainians.

 

[EvaDK]

Russia's preference for storing assets of the armed forces outside with no or little protection, perhaps?

If Ukraine obtains and uses capability to strike at Russia's ports with oil and gas storage infrastructure, you're gonna see some real fireworks too.

 

[ConquestsMaster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1836337924779979005

 

[Ordnael]

 

[Ordnael]

 

[Gedemon]

Now we understand why there are some misunderstanding here about "everything going as planned", the meaning is different.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

India playing both sides and making big money:

https://www.reuters.com/world/ammunition-india-enters-ukraine-raising-russian-ire-2024-09-19/

'Russian ire' :

 

[Kyriakos]

Hello friends, welcome to Military Summary Channel, which of course condemns all violence anywhere in the world - like everyone else.

Drones have become pretty powerful.

 

[Ordnael]

Could India be reselling its Russian imports of ammo as well?

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Could India be reselling its Russian imports of ammo as well?

Surely, the ammo India bought a long time ago in any case, as Russia has not been in position of exporting any ammo for a long time.

Another big Russian ammo depot explodes very nicely btw:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1837360799863472409

All Russian officials said was they downed a gazillion drones as always.

 

[Kyriakos]

Title is about Ugledar, which from geo-located videos seems to be in the process of becoming encircled.
In general the alteration of the front in Donbass has been one long (and slow) one-sided affair.

 

[Gedemon]

Kind of like those thumbnails showing that the scale of a disaster is a few fields. It's not days, it's months that will be required to capture Povrosk at this rate, decades for Kiev, centuries for all of Ukraine.

Attrition will define the winner long before that, which is why targeting military objectives deep inside Russia is a necessity.

Ukraine Hits 2 More Russian Munition Depots, Aiming to Disrupt War Effort

Strikes on weapons arsenals are crucial to weaken Moscow’s overwhelming superiority in battlefield firepower, analysts said.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Kyriakos]

Kind of like those thumbnails showing that the scale of a disaster is a few fields. It's not days, it's months that will be required to capture Povrosk at this rate, decades for Kiev, centuries for all of Ukraine.

Attrition will define the winner long before that, which is why targeting military objectives deep inside Russia is a necessity.

Ukraine Hits 2 More Russian Munition Depots, Aiming to Disrupt War Effort

Strikes on weapons arsenals are crucial to weaken Moscow’s overwhelming superiority in battlefield firepower, analysts said.

www.nytimes.com

It's not a single function for one to determine (eg) distance from the acceleration given. Donbass historically was a large front for the reason it is very urbanized. Past that, there are just fields, which can't be defended in this way.