[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

Crezth said:
In other words we put Ukraine on this track and we have done our damnedest to commit them to it for our own sake: control of Ukrainian resources.
Click to expand...

That is not saying "in other words" what preceded it.
 
Crezth said:
Indeed, which somewhat changes the tenor of complaints about “unprovoked” or “illegal” invasions. Actually those of us who realized Crimea wasn’t going to be reversed any time soon identified that this marked a severe departure from diplomatic options for both sides. In other words we put Ukraine on this track and we have done our damnedest to commit them to it for our own sake: control of Ukrainian resources.

At any rate Crimea was definitely only Ukrainian soil because authorities in the rest of Ukraine felt like they could help themselves. The Crimeans themselves back in 1991 didn’t want to join Ukraine. Whether that’s still true or was even as true as it was in 2014 won’t justify the annexation of Crimea let alone Ukrainian territory proper, but neither will it justify paramilitary struggles to gain control of a supposedly democratic society.

In America the conversation among the military circles was that this was happening because NATO moved first on Ukraine and the Russians remembered that we “promised not to do that.”
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I'm curious about your reading of the article and the causal relations you infer from it. I had shared it in the other thread. It clearly presents Ukrainians themselves requesting US help to rebuild their secret services post-Maidan while they were already suffering from a covert Russian invasion. And it also shows the CIA to be often cautions and reluctant in fear of antagonizing Russia. But obviously it's from the pro-establishment NYT so it's no surprise it tried to portray the CIA in a good light and with plausible deniability regarding Ukraine's more bold covert operations.

This is also relevant to today's discussion about non-combat NATO personnel being present in Ukraine. We already knew that since the Donbass war NATO had been giving limited military aid to Ukraine. Which has increased dramatically since the 2022 invasion. Is it some kind of surprise? This too does not occur in a vacuum. Every violent escalation from Russia pushes Ukraine away from its orbit and into the West's arms (in both senses of the word). And it will likely continue to do so. What other options are available to the Ukrainian leadership? Obviously, if Russia is encroaching on a country's territory, this country will seek help from the US and its allies.

The other option as you mentioned is diplomacy. But in a way Russia closed the door to this option by formally annexing part of Ukraine unilaterally and then, in another region, covertly propping a savage insurgency with weapons, manpower, money and intelligence. Sure you can criticize a few CIA spooks hiding in basements as an obstacle to diplomacy, but Russian actions seem to be much bigger obstacles. This is still a problem today for finding a solution to the crisis. Russia's "peace offers" (or capitulation demands?) are the ones a country usually impose on an adversary it has utterly defeated. So is it a surprise that Ukraine seems to be ready to fight until the very end? Obviously, both sides in this conflict are probably publicly exaggerating their demands to keep war enthusiasm high and as a bargaining strategy for negotiations.

I'm always a bit perplexed by the "realist" school criticism for the US encroachment on what is traditionally Russia's sphere of influence. Great powers' influence wax and wane. They (or their proxies) usually fight most intensely at the edge of their sphere. This border in Europe used to run from Stettin to Trieste. Now, unfortunately for Putin, it runs from the Karelian Isthmus to the Donbass. If we ignore partisanship and the nature of the regimes vying for influence, I don't see how this is more tragic or immoral than the fighting that might have occurred at a previous border. In either case the people caught in the middle will be the ones to suffer. I generally prefer to reserve my harshest criticisms for the power opting to escalate with violence which in this case is clearly Russia.

Anyway, talking about the people being caught in the middle. Another article from the NYT. About what life is like for the people living near the front line in Donetsk. Quite a few people in this thread had suggested that the war was being fought for their well-being. They surprisingly don't seem so thrilled at the prospect of liberation and more war. "I think it will all be destroyed" said Mr. Kobets talking about his property and belongings, the fruit of a life of labor.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/29/world/europe/ukraine-russia-avdiivka.html

Russia Took the City. Now It’s Coming for Their Villages.​

Carlotta Gall, Oleksandr Chubko
7–9 minutes

Ukrainian farmers and miners and their families who live to the west of the recently captured Avdiivka are poised to flee in the face of a Russian onslaught.
A woman using a cane on a muddy, snowy road in Ukraine.
[/URL]
A resident walking recently along a road in a village west of Avdiivka, Eastern Ukraine.Credit...Lynsey Addario for The New York Times
Carlotta Gall and Oleksandr Chubko
Reporting from Ukrainian villages in the Donetsk region around Avdiivka
Feb. 29, 2024, 5:53 a.m. ET
Villagers living near the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka listened with dread in recent weeks to the sound of the bombs falling there, knowing their troops were taking a pounding and their villages were next in line.
Now the chances of bombs landing on them are growing by the day. Russian troops captured Avdiivka 12 days ago and the front line has shifted westward, threatening the next Ukrainian farms and villages that lie in their path.
“It is very tense right now,” said Oleksandr Kobets, a farmer who was butchering a pig in his yard. “You wake up several times a night. They are coming closer and closer.”
The loss of the eastern city of Avdiivka has been a blow for Ukraine, coming amid declining Western support and a shortage of weaponry that left its outnumbered soldiers also outgunned. But for the farmers and miners and their families who live in this nearby stretch of towns and villages, Russia’s sudden advance is upending already hard lives, leaving them poised to flee.
“We are sitting on our suitcases,” Mr. Kobets said.
Image
A man stands with a hatchet standing over raw meat.
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Oleksandr Kobets butchering a pig in a village west of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine.Credit...Lynsey Addario for The New York Times
Life in this province, Donetsk, has been disrupted by almost a decade of war and many families have fled the region because of poverty and joblessness as much as from the conflict. But so long as Ukraine’s defenses held for the most part around Avdiivka, many farmers and pensioners hung on, since it was cheaper to live in their own homes than pay rent in a city, and they could live off the land.
After Avdiivka was lost, Ukrainian soldiers fell back to positions in villages abutting the city, but they have lost three more villages in heavy fighting in the last few days. The sound of heavy artillery exploding is a constant background to life in the villages beyond.
On Thursday, the commander in chief of the Ukrainian Army, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, said in a post on his Telegram channel that some commanders had miscalculated in planning for the latest Russian advance, but he did not provide details.
As they get ready to again face the Russians, Ukrainian soldiers have been resting up in empty houses or with families throughout the parts of the Donetsk region that remain under Ukrainian control, finding local helpers to wash and stitch their uniforms while they fix their cars and stock up on supplies.
Those who were shopping in a village store seemed deeply weary. The bombing in Avdiivka was the worst they had ever seen, one soldier called Oleh said. Almost everyone was suffering from concussions, he added. He gave only his first name according to military protocol.
The villagers seemed unperturbed that the presence of soldiers could bring Russian strikes upon them. Local men were also fighting at the front and some had gone missing in action in previous battles, said Tetyana Rud, the head of the council overseeing two villages near Avdiivka.
“I think the soldiers who pulled back are consolidating positions,” she said. For now, the 389 civilians in her two villages were staying put, she said. There had been artillery strikes on a farm and other targets in the area, but so far both villages had escaped direct damage.
Image
Ukrainian soldiers in combat gear stand near a military vehicle.
[/URL]
Ukrainian soldiers who recently pulled out of Avdiivka replenishing supplies in a nearby village.Credit...Lynsey Addario for The New York Times
Yet everyone was packed and prepared to leave on short notice, she said.
“If the soldiers leave, we will leave as well,” she said. “If the soldiers say we should go, we will go.”
She sat in a village council building with a group of women volunteers. “This is my support group,” she said. “We are full of energy, and optimism, and spirit.” The women helped manage the distribution of boxes of humanitarian aid that were stacked in a supply room, and they run a small first-aid post in an adjoining room.
One of the women, Yulia, 62, said she would not leave. Her pension amounted to less than $80 a month, and she felt she would not be able to manage away from home.
“I will not go anywhere,” she said. “And I don’t want to live in a dormitory.”
“Don’t fool around,” Ms. Rud replied. “We will take you with us.”
“If my house falls on me I will be buried under it,” Yulia insisted, leading Ms. Rud to say, “We will tie her up and evacuate her.”
Image
A woman standing in a room surrounded by boxes.
[/URL]
Tetyana Rud, head of a local council that oversees two villages near Avdiivka, displaying some of the humanitarian supplies the organization had received since the start of the war.Credit...Lynsey Addario for The New York Times
They all had prepared their cellars as bomb shelters, and the children had taken part in drills to run and take cover, she added. Everyone had a grab bag with their documents at hand, too.
“It’s tough,” Ms. Rud said, “but we try not to lose our spirit because the whole village looks to me.”
But other villagers were gloomy about the approaching Russian onslaught.
“We are all scared,” said Kateryna Lytvynova, 73, who lost her husband a few years ago and spent a month in the hospital last year after suffering a stroke.
“We do not want the Russians,” she said. “We don’t want any outsiders, even if we become worse off, we don’t want them.”
She has hung blankets over her doors and windows to block any light showing from her house at night. The whole village goes dark after 7 p.m. she said. “Even the soldiers use small candles,” she said.
She sits alone in the dark beside a religious icon propped up on a table in the corner of her sitting room, listening to the explosions.
“At a quarter to midnight there was a big explosion, another time at 10 p.m.,” she said. “A week ago a big farm was shelled and the pigs are still running around.”
Image
A woman in her sitting room.
[/URL]
Kateryna Lytvynova, 73, at her home in a village west of Avdiivka.Credit...Lynsey Addario for The New York Times
“I sit and pray in the dark,” she said. “Everything would be fine if it was silent.”
The farmer, Mr. Kobets, said he doubted the Ukrainian Army could stop the Russian advance, and he expected to lose his farm. “I am preparing myself psychologically to go,” he said.
He did not have anywhere to go to, though, nor did he have the money to rent a truck to move his livestock and belongings.
“A Ukrainian farmer is a poor person,” he said. As for the farm, he fully expected the Russians to loot what was not razed.
“I think it will all be destroyed,” he said, gesturing at the farm buildings around him. “One hundred percent.”
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Crezth said:
Indeed, which somewhat changes the tenor of complaints about “unprovoked” or “illegal” invasions.
Click to expand...
in what world was that "provocation" and how would that make the invasion "legal" ?

which nations have recognized the annexations ?

Crezth said:
In America the conversation among the military circles was that this was happening because NATO moved first on Ukraine and the Russians remembered that we “promised not to do that.”
Click to expand...

In France and Germany, we opposed the US demand for Ukraine and Georgia membership in 2008, to please Russia.

That make us more responsible for the casualties of war than the US, if we had accepted, a lot of people would have been saved.
 
Counter-espionage: the DGSI investigates an attempt by pro-Russian supporters in France to destabilize the European elections

www.lemonde.fr

Contre-espionnage : la DGSI enquête sur une tentative de déstabilisation des élections européennes par des prorusses en France

Les services du renseignement intérieur français s’intéressent à la constitution d’une liste servant les intérêts de Moscou, portée par l’ancien eurodéputé français Jean-Luc Schaffhauser, lui-même aidé par des figures prorusses proches de l’extrême droite.
www.lemonde.fr www.lemonde.fr

France has been slow to understand that, in war, propaganda is as dangerous as cannon fire. In the autumn of 2023, the Directorate General of Internal Security (DGSI) opened an investigation into suspicions of an attempt to destabilize the European elections on June 9. According to the information gathered by Le Monde, confirmed by a source in the Ministry of the Interior, the suspicions relate to the creation of a list in France serving Russian interests and potentially benefiting from Moscow's support.
Click to expand...
For months now, the DGSI has been monitoring the European list project led by Jean-Luc Schaffhauser, a former French National Front MEP (formerly known as Rassemblement National, RN), with the help of pro-Russian figures close to the far right, such as former soldier Pierre Plas, journalist Dimitri de Kochko and former RN members Guillaume Pradoura. [...] The DGSI investigation delved into links between Mr. Schaffhauser and members of the Russian secret services, including Valery Levitsky, Russian Consul General, in Strasbourg, until April 1, 2018, when he was expelled for espionage. He was joined by three other Russian diplomats stationed in France, all members of the Russian military secret service (GRU).
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According to information exchanged between European secret services, the missi dominici in charge of relaying Moscow's word are said to be in contact with Sergei Kirienko, deputy chief of staff of the Russian presidential administration. He could oversee the operation to destabilize the European elections. Among his French contacts is Xavier Moreau, a pro-Russian activist who has held Russian nationality since 2013. Based in Moscow, he travels back and forth to France and runs the Stratpol blog, which relays politico-military analyses that echo the propaganda of the Russian regime.
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Moderator Action: Back to current news please. The pre-war days are two years behind us and the invasion happened.
 
Arrests already started at Navalny's funeral...Is Putin afraid of dead men as well?
 
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Indians hired as ‘helpers’ forced to fight in Russia’s war​

The victims belonging to Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab and J&K seek government’s help to return​


At least three Indians were forced to fight alongside the Russians on the Russia-Ukraine border after they were allegedly conned by an agent and sent there to work as “army security helpers”, one of the victims told The Hindu.

Since November 2023, around 18 Indians are stranded at Mariupol, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Rostov-on-Don along the Russia-Ukraine border, and one person is said to have been killed in the ongoing war, an agent said. The two countries have been at war since February 24, 2022.

While a few Indians volunteered to join the International Legion created to fight Russian forces in Ukraine in 2022, the presence of Indians on Russian side in combat role has been reported the first time.

The family of one of the victims, who is from Hyderabad, has approached AIMIM Member of Parliament Asaduddin Owaisi. On January 25, Mr. Owaisi wrote to External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and the Indian Embassy in Moscow, seeking the government’s intervention for their return.

The victims belong to Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir. The Hindu has withheld their names.

One of the victims from Uttar Pradesh, who is in his early 20s and who wished to remain anonymous, said three of them were given basic training in handling arms and ammunition by the “Russian Army” and were packed off to Rostov-on-Don along the Russia-Ukraine border in January where they faced bullets and were forced to fight at gunpoint.

“We arrived here in November 2023, were made to sign contracts, which said that we are being hired as army security helpers. We were categorically told that we will not be sent to the battlefield and promised ₹1.95 lakh salary and ₹50,000 additional bonus per month. Except the ₹50,000 bonus for two months, I have not received any money,” he said.

He said he came to Russia with the help of an agent – Faisal Khan – who runs a You Tube channel titled “Baba Vlogs”.

On November 12, the U.P. resident was received in Russia by two Indian agents associated with Mr. Khan.

“On November 13, we were admitted into a camp and taken to a deserted place around two-and-half hours away from Moscow. We contacted the Indian agents and they assured us that we will be posted as helpers. We lived in tents and were trained to handle weapons. On January 4, we were sent to Donetsk to fight,” he said.

He said that after they were forced to fight, he found an opportunity to escape and threw away his weapon. “But I was caught and threatened at gunpoint. They asked me to transport goods from one building to another. The commander told us to walk maintaining a gap of five metres so that we do not become easy targets. In the short walk, we faced bullets 7-8 times, a local accompanying me was killed. On January 22, I managed to flee and got admitted to a hospital with frostbite injuries,” the victim said.

He added that for many days he did not have access to his phone and managed to contact his family after fleeing the war zone. “Repeated pleas to the Indian Embassy in Moscow have gone unheeded. I have been turned away several times. I do not have proper documents and have no money, the government is not helping us,” he said.

www.thehindu.com

Indians hired as ‘helpers’ forced to fight in Russia’s war

Indians forced to fight in Russia-Ukraine war seek government intervention for return, facing grave danger, lack of support.
www.thehindu.com www.thehindu.com
 
Unfortunately cowards live and heroes die. At least in Russian world it is the rule.
Its hard to believe in justice when you see triumpfs of evil like these.
 

Ukraine repels Russian attacks but situation is difficult, top general says​


KYIV, Feb 29 (Reuters) - Ukrainian forces have pushed back Russian troops from the village of Orlivka, west of Avdiivka, but the situation on the eastern front remains difficult, Ukrainian army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Thursday.
Orlivka is less than 2 kilometres (1-1/2 miles) northwest of Lastochkyne, which was occupied this week by Russian forces.
Russian forces last week captured the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka after a months-long assault and are pressing on other areas along the front line, Ukrainian authorities say.

Ukraine's military said this week it had withdrawn from two more villages near Avdiivka, losing more territory as support from its Western allies runs short.
"The enemy continues active offensive actions in many areas of the front line. The situation is particularly tense in the Avdiivka and Zaporizhzhia sectors," Syrskyi said on the Telegram messaging app.
He said Russian assault units were trying to break through the Ukrainian defences and capture the settlements of Tonenke, Orlivka, Semenivka, Berdychi and Krasnohorivka.

Syrskyi, who visited troops on the eastern front, said some commanders had revealed certain shortcomings in their "situational awareness and assessment of the enemy", which affected the sustainability of defence in certain areas.
"I took all measures to remedy the situation on the ground, with the allocation of additional ammunition and material resources, as well as the necessary reserves," Syrskyi said.

Russia's Defence Ministry, in its daily account of front-line activity, said its forces had secured more advantageous positions in the Avdiivka sector and inflicted losses on Ukrainian units around Orlivka and nearby villages.
Reuters was unable to verify accounts from either side.
A Ukrainian commander in the area described a "significant difference" in fighting since Avdiivka changed hands.
"Russians have slightly fewer opportunities to engage aviation. But artillery and FPV (First Person View) drones are used in large quantities," Maksym Zhorin, deputy commander of the Third Separate Assault Brigade, wrote on Telegram.

"Beneath all this, there is a frenzy of infantry. Sometimes we observe groups of up to 40 people running through a field in a seemingly disorganised manner."
The Third Brigade, in a separate posting, said its forces had pushed into the town of Krasnohorivka on armoured vehicles and forced dozens of Russian troops to flee.
"The enemy had no intention of retreating and clung to every building," the report said. "The Russians were driven out of them by using force, bullets and grenades."

Ukraine's military and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy have said that troops lack equipment and ammunition needed to repel Russian attacks because of a shortage of Western aid.
Zelenskiy, posting on the social media platform X, said Ukraine's air defences had enjoyed success in February, downing 13 planes, including 10 Su-34 and two Su-35 fighters and an A-50 surveillance aircraft.


I wonder if Olaf is waiting for Kiev to fall to deliver the Taurus to Poland? I wonder if NATO is waiting for Warsaw to fall get some troops on the ground? I wonder if the US thinks a Russian Europa will still keep buying their exports?
 
French bed-bug panic in Paris etc. last fall – less bugs, more Russian psy-op it turns out:
www.lemonde.fr

Bedbug panic was stoked by Russia, says France

France shut several schools in October last year over concern about bedbug infestations. France has blamed the Kremlin for spreading misinformation about the pests.
www.lemonde.fr www.lemonde.fr

And it is the kind of nuisance BS operations we can now expect from Russia. Seemingly trivial, kind of silly, but it does cost money and causes aggravations of all kinds in society.

Not that there aren't cases of bed-bugs in Paris – first rule of good propaganda, base it on something that isn't an actual lie – and if one goes looking for them in Paris, and knows where to look, they will be found. But then, the same applies for New York, London or Moscow itself.

In this instance the Russian propaganda tried to make the connection: Ukranian refugees – eastern Europeans – dirty – bed-bugs. But that doesn't seem to really have come off, certainly not outside France. Possibly because the long-since (WWII at least) established trope (in the English speaking world, which extends well into non-English speaking countries as well) of: French people – dirty – bed bugs.
 
Verbose said:
French bed-bug panic in Paris etc. last fall – less bugs, more Russian psy-op it turns out:
www.lemonde.fr

Bedbug panic was stoked by Russia, says France

France shut several schools in October last year over concern about bedbug infestations. France has blamed the Kremlin for spreading misinformation about the pests.
www.lemonde.fr www.lemonde.fr

And it is the kind of nuisance BS operations we can now expect from Russia. Seemingly trivial, kind of silly, but it does cost money and causes aggravations of all kinds in society.

Not that there aren't cases of bed-bugs in Paris – first rule of good propaganda, base it on something that isn't an actual lie – and if one goes looking for them in Paris, and knows where to look, they will be found. But then, the same applies for New York, London or Moscow itself.

In this instance the Russian propaganda tried to make the connection: Ukranian refugees – eastern Europeans – dirty – bed-bugs. But that doesn't seem to really have come off, certainly not outside France. Possibly because the long-since (WWII at least) established trope (in the English speaking world, which extends well into non-English speaking countries as well) of: French people – dirty – bed bugs.
Click to expand...
As you said, good propaganda has some basis in fact. Often very tenuous or tangential.

Interesting that Russians didn't say Ukrainians fleeing to Russia from Donbass and Luhansk were dirty bedbug carriers.
If it caused disruption to France, a country supplying weapons to Ukraine, I guess Russia can claim a tiny propaganda victory.
I'm sure the French government has it under control. And they know more is coming, especially if events in Gaza stoke more anger in the poorer areas of France with a large Arab/Muslim population.

Until then, we all sympathize with the V.itchy regime.
Moderator Action: Warned for trolling. The_J
 
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Sarin said:
www.newsweek.com

Tucker Carlson throws Putin under the bus

The former Fox News host dismissed part of Putin's justification for invading Ukraine as "one of the dumbest things" he's ever heard.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com

Looks like Carlson isn't happy with his role as propaganda puppet anymore...
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It wasn't what he expected. Putin wasn't what he expected. Carlson is probably quite right about Putin not being at ease.

Carlson is used to western politicians pretty much at ease talking to reporters, getting questions. Putin isn't that kind of politician, he never has actual debates or conversations. There is like one clip where a liberal dude in an assembled meeting kind of ambush-style actually managing to put real questions, and raise real topics for discussion, with Putin – and that was something like 15 years ago, and Putin clearly was not happy or at ease with it, and has studiously avoided engaging in anything like it since.
 
Looks like ol' Tuck is trying to get a little revenge and/or face-saving following his humiliation at the hands of Putin:

Tucker Carlson Throws Putin Under the Bus​

Tucker Carlson bashed Russian President Vladimir Putin's justification for invading Ukraine, claiming that the "denazification" of the country was "one of the dumbest things I'd ever heard."
Speaking with host Lex Fridman in a podcast episode released Tuesday, Carlson discussed his controversial interview with Putin released earlier this month. The former Fox News star has faced mounds of backlash for meeting with the Kremlin leader, which was the first time Putin agreed to sit down for an interview with Western media personnel since the start of the war in Ukraine.
Click to expand...
Putin and Carlson's interview touched on a long list of topics, from a long-winded Russian history lesson to Putin's thoughts on the next U.S. presidential election. Carlson also described his first impression of Putin as someone who "seemed nervous," telling Fridman that the Russian president "went into [the interview] like an over-prepared student."
Click to expand...
https://www.newsweek.com/tucker-carlson-throws-putin-under-bus-1874897

Carlson called Putin "nervous... like an overprepared student" towards him?:confused: Putin, in Russia, was nervous to talk to Tucker Carlson?:dubious: That's pretty rich:nope:, but still a hilarious burn attempt by Tucker:lol:
 
Sommerswerd said:
Looks like ol' Tuck is trying to get a little revenge and/or face-saving following his humiliation at the hands of Putin:

Tucker Carlson Throws Putin Under the Bus​



https://www.newsweek.com/tucker-carlson-throws-putin-under-bus-1874897

Carlson called Putin "nervous... like an overprepared student" towards him?:confused: Putin, in Russia, was nervous to talk to Tucker Carlson?:dubious: That's pretty rich:nope:, but still a hilarious burn attempt by Tucker:lol:
Click to expand...
Oh goodness, Putin's lunch didn't settle well?
 
Except Tucker Carlson is a total epiphenomenon – he matters not.

Currently the more interesting media discussions are the readings of Putin's latest program statement in that recent major speech:
 
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