China and Russia are not allies. They never were. With domestic consumption collapsing, China is becoming increasingly dependent on exports to the West and Middle East to keep its doomed growth model alive for just a short while longer.
[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight
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Largest drone attack on Moscow. 34 drones shot down, none reached the city.
Several private houses damaged in suburbs, 5 civilians wounded.
Several private houses damaged in suburbs, 5 civilians wounded.
50,000 Russian and North Korean Troops Mass Ahead of Attack, U.S. Says
Ukrainian officials expect a counteroffensive in western Russia to begin in the coming days as North Korea’s troops train with Russian forces.
The Russian military has assembled a force of 50,000 soldiers, including North Korean troops, as it prepares to begin an assault aimed at reclaiming territory seized by Ukraine in the Kursk region of Russia, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials.
A new U.S. assessment concludes that Russia has massed the force without having to pull soldiers out of Ukraine’s east — its main battlefield priority — allowing Moscow to press on multiple fronts simultaneously.
[...]
North Korea has sent more than 10,000 troops to fight with Russia in Kursk, American officials say. The troops are wearing Russian uniforms and have been equipped by Moscow, but they will probably fight in their own discrete units, U.S. defense officials said.
Ukrainian officials said Moscow had supplied the North Korean forces with machine guns, sniper rifles, antitank missiles and rocket-propelled grenades.
Russia has been training the North Koreans in artillery fire, basic infantry tactics and, critically, trench clearing, American officials said. That training suggests that at least some of the North Korean forces will be involved in frontal assaults on Ukraine’s dug-in defensive positions.
“We fully expect that D.P.R.K. soldiers could be engaged in combat,” Sabrina Singh, the deputy Pentagon press secretary, said on Thursday, using the initials of North Korea’s formal name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
U.S. officials are not sure what constraints the government of President Kim Jong-un has put on the use of its forces. However, American officials expect them to be directly involved in the fighting.
A Ukrainian official said the North Korean forces had been divided into two groups, an assault unit and a support unit, which will help provide security inside the territory recaptured from Ukrainian forces.
North Korea has a large army but, unlike Russia, has not been involved in ground combat for decades. The troops North Korea is deploying, however, are considered its best, drawn from the 11th Corps, home to the country’s special operations soldiers.
[...]
American officials believe that the Ukrainian troops will prove difficult to dislodge, and that the Russian and North Korean forces will probably take heavy losses, similar to what Russia has suffered in eastern Ukraine. U.S. and British military analysts put the current number of Russian troop deaths and injuries at an average of more than 1,200 a day.
The North Koreans will be fighting as light infantry, without the benefit of armored vehicles. And current Ukrainian tactics of artillery fire and drone attacks have proved devastating to unprotected Russian troops.
That said, if Russia gains momentum, it may not stop at its border but might try to drive Ukrainian forces back farther. It is not clear if the North Korean government will authorize its forces to conduct sustained operations in Ukraine or if they are intended only for the Kursk counteroffensive, according to U.S. defense officials. Some American officials believe that North Korea could order its troops to stop at the border while the Russian forces press deeper into Ukraine.
[...]
George Barros, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, said that in spite of that inexperience, the North Korean forces are well organized. “The one thing that they might actually be better at than the Russians is cohesion and discipline,” he said.
Rob Lee, a Russian military specialist at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia who recently returned from a visit to Ukraine, added, “Thousands of additional infantry can make a difference in Kursk. These soldiers are younger and in better physical shape than many Russian contract soldiers.”
[...]
Russia is struggling to meet its monthly recruiting goal of roughly 25,000 troops as its casualties mount, meaning the North Korean soldiers are critical.
Mr. Barros called the North Korean deployment an “alternative pipeline.”
“It is likely not going to be a one-time shipment of 10,000 soldiers,” he said. “It is more likely going to be a way to regularly pull in thousands, perhaps up to 15,000 men a month.”
sylvanllewelyn
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The population pyramid of North Korea shows around 150000 to 200000 males aged 18. 15000 per month means all the males are sent to war when they legally become adults.
Snowygerry
Deity
Well no one says you can only send 18 year olds, the war would be over by now.
average age for Russian soldiers in Ukraine is 40-45, looking at exchanged POWs.
average age for Russian soldiers in Ukraine is 40-45, looking at exchanged POWs.
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Verbose
Deity
Even at that , with such numbers in a year the PRK would still need to send 3% of its male population in the normal age brackets (19-40 or so) for war-fighting age, off to war against Ukraine. It would require a major mobilization.
Snowygerry
Deity
They continued mobilization have they not ? I’m sure every N. Korean is obliged to join the army at one point, so given their population they can likely support a division sized force, if Russia carries the cost.
Verbose
Deity
Conscription rather than mobilization... But nah, actually it's just weird.
All Korean males who are not actually infirm – or members of the party elite of society – are conscripted between ages 17 and 30. Military service lasts a decade, the military spending is an estimated 28% or so of GDP. I.e. effectively all North Korean males in the that age bracket are military. It's how the DPRK, population 26 or so million, can have a standing army of 1,3 million – i.e. the kind of numbers Russia aims for...
So DPRK does in fact conscript something in the vicinity of 150 000 young men every year, and keeps them like that for a decade. Things our societies would consider Dystopian Nightmare Stuff is Just A Regular Tuesday in Pyongyang,
Russia is rushing to take back all the lost territory in Kursk, possibly to be able to accept Trump's plan of a cease-fire on current positions.
www.forbes.com
In western Russia’s Kursk Oblast, a trio of Ukraine’s heaviest brigades is in a close fight with Russian marines and North Korean soldiers attacking from two directions. It’s an apocalyptic fight that’s costing the Russians—and possibly the North Koreans, as well—potentially dozens of vehicles and hundreds of lives.
That doesn’t mean the Russians won’t win. The Kremlin has built a manpower machine to pump replacement troops into the fight. The machine can’t function forever, of course. But there’s no sign it’ll run out of raw material any time soon. “On the Kursk direction, the enemy has regrouped,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies concluded.
[...]
Trump’s long-shot proposal, which currently lacks a realistic enforcement mechanism, would freeze the front line at its current position. For Ukraine, that would mean losing 45,000 square miles of occupied territory.
For Russia, it would mean losing 270 square miles of Kursk. Unless, of course, those Russian marines—and their thousands of North Korean allies—can retake Kursk before a possible ceasefire.
[...]
After a cursory survey of drone videos, open-source intelligence analysts have identified at least three BTR graveyards in and around the village of Pogrebki. Graphic footage depicts heaps of dead Russians.
But a few BTRs have managed to run the gauntlet of Ukrainian mines, drones, artillery and missiles to push back the front line more than a mile from its October position. And more Russians and allies are coming.
Kursk Is A Graveyard For Russian BTR-82 Fighting Vehicles—And Their Passengers
But the Russians are gaining ground despite heavy losses.
www.forbes.com
In western Russia’s Kursk Oblast, a trio of Ukraine’s heaviest brigades is in a close fight with Russian marines and North Korean soldiers attacking from two directions. It’s an apocalyptic fight that’s costing the Russians—and possibly the North Koreans, as well—potentially dozens of vehicles and hundreds of lives.
That doesn’t mean the Russians won’t win. The Kremlin has built a manpower machine to pump replacement troops into the fight. The machine can’t function forever, of course. But there’s no sign it’ll run out of raw material any time soon. “On the Kursk direction, the enemy has regrouped,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies concluded.
[...]
Trump’s long-shot proposal, which currently lacks a realistic enforcement mechanism, would freeze the front line at its current position. For Ukraine, that would mean losing 45,000 square miles of occupied territory.
For Russia, it would mean losing 270 square miles of Kursk. Unless, of course, those Russian marines—and their thousands of North Korean allies—can retake Kursk before a possible ceasefire.
[...]
After a cursory survey of drone videos, open-source intelligence analysts have identified at least three BTR graveyards in and around the village of Pogrebki. Graphic footage depicts heaps of dead Russians.
But a few BTRs have managed to run the gauntlet of Ukrainian mines, drones, artillery and missiles to push back the front line more than a mile from its October position. And more Russians and allies are coming.
Assuming that Russia couldn't realistically get more territory in a peace treaty than what it actually controlled, this is pretty much what Russia wanted.Russia is rushing to take back all the lost territory in Kursk, possibly to be able to accept Trump's plan of a cease-fire on current positions.
Kursk Is A Graveyard For Russian BTR-82 Fighting Vehicles—And Their Passengers
But the Russians are gaining ground despite heavy losses.
In western Russia’s Kursk Oblast, a trio of Ukraine’s heaviest brigades is in a close fight with Russian marines and North Korean soldiers attacking from two directions. It’s an apocalyptic fight that’s costing the Russians—and possibly the North Koreans, as well—potentially dozens of vehicles and hundreds of lives.
That doesn’t mean the Russians won’t win. The Kremlin has built a manpower machine to pump replacement troops into the fight. The machine can’t function forever, of course. But there’s no sign it’ll run out of raw material any time soon. “On the Kursk direction, the enemy has regrouped,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies concluded.
[...]
Trump’s long-shot proposal, which currently lacks a realistic enforcement mechanism, would freeze the front line at its current position. For Ukraine, that would mean losing 45,000 square miles of occupied territory.
For Russia, it would mean losing 270 square miles of Kursk. Unless, of course, those Russian marines—and their thousands of North Korean allies—can retake Kursk before a possible ceasefire.
[...]
After a cursory survey of drone videos, open-source intelligence analysts have identified at least three BTR graveyards in and around the village of Pogrebki. Graphic footage depicts heaps of dead Russians.
But a few BTRs have managed to run the gauntlet of Ukrainian mines, drones, artillery and missiles to push back the front line more than a mile from its October position. And more Russians and allies are coming.
And if we also accept that it is certain they will take back everything in Kursk, it's a peace deal which doesn't even symbolically wound Russia.
In retrospect, Ukraine should have had agreed to a much more favorable peace in 2022. Relying on foreign powers is a massive risk, but sadly those foreign powers also have the habit of telling you what to do and then take no responsibility of where it gets you.
Regardless, there will be an explosion of social unrest in Ukraine after this peace is signed. Despite their valor and bravery in combat, they are to lose between 1/5 and 1/4 of their country.
Tech-wise, this war has shown that new and typically cheaper weapons - including drones - can be very effective against traditional, heavier and much more expensive ones.
By the same logic, there was always going to be an explosion of social unrest whenever peace was signed, because giving up land was always a part of Russia's conditions.
Plus, as we know, countries in the habit of doing this don't have a habit of respecting said peace, and indeed love to foment (or otherwise invent) reasons to go on large-scale invasions over the smallest of pretexts. Not mentioning names to avoid tangents, off-topic, etc.
2022 peace deal would have left them unarmed and unprotected, AFAIK Trump's plan would have at least European soldiers stationed on the border, but I doubt anyone involved (ie Ukraine, Russia, France, UK, Germany, Poland, ...) would accept that.
www.telegraph.co.uk
If the reasoning is indeed "peace is better than getting back territory", then a 2025 peace plan including deterrence, real deterrence, at the cost of more territories lost would be better than a 2022 peace plan with no guarantee at all for the future.
But then it's not confirmed either that Trump will ask Ukraine to abandon all the occupied territories in exchange for peace
www.euronews.com
Trump mulls Ukraine peace plan: British troops patrolling an 800-mile buffer zone
First suggestions by president-elect to freeze war with Russia, as Putin says he is ready to talk with ‘courageous’ leader
www.telegraph.co.uk
If the reasoning is indeed "peace is better than getting back territory", then a 2025 peace plan including deterrence, real deterrence, at the cost of more territories lost would be better than a 2022 peace plan with no guarantee at all for the future.
But then it's not confirmed either that Trump will ask Ukraine to abandon all the occupied territories in exchange for peace
Trump team distances itself from Ukraine 'peace not territory' claim
Bryan Lanza, who worked on Trump’s presidential campaign, claimed the incoming Trump administration indicated restoring lost Ukrainian territory wasn't a precursor to peace. #EuropeNews
www.euronews.com
And mass exodus of men, as soon as borders will be opened.
Joij21
🔥Heil Trump!🔥
Nah, Ukraine will keep fighting till Kiev. Then it becomes a guerilla war in the Western part of Ukraine till Russia pacifies or rather IF Russia can pacify the whole thing while taking heavy casualties and possibly resorting to a genocide maybe resorting to chemical weapons use to finish it.
What depresses me the most in all this, is the net loss in a long war. You don't easily bounce back from such. In many respects, Greece still hasn't bounced back from 1922, a very winnable war for it. Ukraine's war wasn't winnable (ultimately due to nuclear weapons), and I fear it will indeed cause an exodus when peace comes.
Trump's win in the elections, unfortunately, will be the easiest way for the powers that kept urging Ukraine to stay in the war in 2022, to claim they have no accountability (implying that had the democratic party remained in power, things would be different for Ukraine). I don't think they would have been different.
The war happened due to Russia's greed. But it should had ended in peace talks in 2022, where some of the territories would be saved and kept (including a few perhaps under autonomy) in Ukraine.
You really don't see why the first sentence makes the second one ridiculous?
Verbose
Deity
Except the 1919-1922 war was a Greek war of choice. Greece simply could have decided to not chose war.
So, a war due to Greek greed.
Moderator Action: Please do not derail this thread. leif
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Verbose
Deity
That's still a strategic loss for Putin. The Ukranians will still insist on being Ukranian, even under conditions like that.
Not really greed, the so-called Megale Idea, ie the restoration of Constantinople to a Greek state, was about national completion and similar to other european conflicts for such. Don't forget that the city was the capital for a thousand years.
Anyway, I only mentioned that war to refer to inevitable national grief following a loss. And yes, unlike Ukraine, Greece lost territories which were just recently awarded to it (Ionia and eastern Thrace). But the similarity will be in the aftermath.
Imo not when the other option is what we will now see, which is even more lost territories. The first sentence merely makes the second (a peace treaty with some lost land) unethical. Now the peace will be still unethical, and a lot more destructive.
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