Numbers may be higher than real losses, to what point I don't know, but those reports number variations usually match the numbers of visually confirmed losses variation.
That's the deadliest day of the war so far.
[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight
- Thread starter Birdjaguar
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Numbers may be higher than real losses, to what point I don't know, but those reports number variations usually match the numbers of visually confirmed losses variation.
That's the deadliest day of the war so far.
Zardnaar
Deity
Possible developments in Abhkazia and Syria. Russias a little busy.
Ukraine war: Zelensky says Nato membership could end 'hot phase'
But Zelensky points out no-one has yet made such an offer and whether Nato would consider a move is doubtful.
www.bbc.com
Lots of people were proposing ceasefires, he said, but without a mechanism to prevent Russia from attacking again, ceasefires were simply too dangerous.
Only NATO membership, he said, could offer that kind of guarantee.
The Ukrainian president has already said that he thinks the war could end in the coming year if Ukraine’s allies show sufficient resolve.
Reports suggest that discussion of the so-called West German model (NATO membership offered to a divided country) has been going on in Western circles for more than a year.
But no formal proposals have yet been made.
Moderator Action: Perhaps we need a break from this for a couple of days. Closed for now.
Now open.
sylvanllewelyn
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Story on the internet about North Korean elite forces taking a village in the Kursk region and killing many Ukrainians. Is it true? If true, does it demonstrate the strong combat ability of North Korean infantry, or the weak ability of the Russians?
Ordnael
Emperor
One Of Ukraine’s Sport Plane Strike Drones Flew Right Over Someone’s Head To Blow Up A Police Base In Grozny
One Of Ukraine’s Sport Plane Strike Drones Flew Right Over Someone’s Head To Blow Up A Police Base In Grozny
The explosives-laden Aeroprakt A-22 traveled at least 600 miles to reach its target.
www.forbes.com
Keep Ukraine Out of Talks to End Its War
The Trump administration needs to engage Moscow and avoid, at first, involving Kyiv.The incoming Trump administration seems genuinely committed to finding peace in Ukraine. Whether it’s capable of the extremely complicated diplomacy required is a very different question. One issue that will have to be decided at the very start of the process is at what stage, and on what issues, Ukraine should be involved in the process. The issue is more fraught than has generally been acknowledged.
The first and most fundamental goal of the talks (as in all such negotiations) will be for each side to clearly establish, on the one hand, its vital interests and absolute and nonnegotiable conditions and, on the other hand, what points it is prepared, in principle, to compromise on. It may be, of course, that the nonnegotiable positions of the three sides are fundamentally opposed and incompatible. If so, peace negotiations will inevitably fail, but we will not know this until these issues have been explored.
The three parties involved are Ukraine, Russia and the United States. The initial stages of the negotiations, however, should be between the United States and Russia. It goes without saying that certain aspects of an eventual agreement will require Ukraine’s full assent, and that without this assent a settlement isn’t possible. These aspects include the terms of a ceasefire, the nature and extent of any demilitarized zones, and any constitutional amendments guaranteeing the linguistic and cultural rights of Russians and Russian-speakers in Ukraine. U.S. negotiators will have to be fully cognizant and respectful of Kyiv’s views on Ukraine’s vital interests.
Given certain categorical—and entirely legitimate—Ukrainian positions, a number of key issues seem to be a priori off the table, and if Russia insists on them, no agreement will be possible. The most important initial task of Gen. Kellogg and his team will therefore be to discover whether the Russian government regards these conditions as nonnegotiable, or whether Moscow is prepared to compromise on them if the Trump administration is prepared to compromise on wider issues.
The first nonnegotiable issue from Ukraine’s and the U.S.’ point of view is Ukrainian and Western legal recognition of Russia’s claimed annexations, as opposed to an acceptance of the fact (already accepted in public by President Zelenskyy) that Ukraine cannot recover these territories on the battlefield and therefore has to accept the reality of Russian possession, pending future negotiations.
Russian experts have suggested to me that Moscow will not, in fact, insist on this in talks, because in addition to Ukraine and the West, China, India, and other key Russian partners would also refuse the very suggestion. They said that Moscow hopes for a situation like that on the island of Cyprus, where no country but Turkey has recognized the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, but talks have lasted 50 years with no result.
The second nonnegotiable issue is Putin’s demand that Ukraine withdraw from the territory it still holds in the four provinces of Ukraine that Russia claims to have annexed. This is absolutely unacceptable to Kyiv, and should be to Washington, too. Ukraine should not be encouraged and helped by Washington to batter itself to pieces in a hopeless effort to drive Russia from the territory it controls, but it cannot be asked by Washington to give up more territory without a fight. The Ukrainian government will doubtless make this clear to the Trump administration, and its view must be accepted as definitive by the United States as well.
However, certain other basic questions are not up to Ukraine to decide. They are chiefly up to the United States, and it is the U.S. administration that will have to negotiate them. Central Russian proposals in the ultimatum issued before the war were for new agreements with the United States and NATO not relating to Ukraine.
Today, key aspects of the Russian demand for limits on the Ukrainian armed forces depend on the United States, since it is only the United States that can provide Ukraine with long-range missiles and the intelligence to guide them. The question of which Western sanctions to lift or suspend as part of a deal with Moscow is also up to the United States and EU.
Ukraine can, of course, ask to join NATO, but the decision of whether to accept a new member lies not with that country but with the existing members—and each of them has a veto on the issue. A U.S. administration could take the lead, but it will be up to Washington to decide how much influence to use with, and pressure to put on, other members, and it cannot simply override the likely vetoes of Hungary and Turkey—or perhaps of France, if Marine Le Pen is the next president.
The question of what Western security guarantees can and should be given to Ukraine as part of a settlement is also not up to Ukraine to answer. President Zelenskyy has suggested the deployment of troops from European NATO members, which has been echoed by certain Western officials and commentators and is reportedly being discussed between President Macron of France and the Polish government.
However, everything that I have heard from Russians tells me that this is just as unacceptable to Moscow as NATO membership itself and would therefore make agreement impossible. Moreover, European countries would agree to send their troops only if they had an ironclad guarantee from Washington that the United States would intervene if they were attacked. This, in effect, punts the decision back to Washington—not Kyiv, and not Brussels, Warsaw or Paris.
Above all, Russia’s motives for launching this war extend beyond Ukraine to the whole security relationship between Russia and the West, led by the United States. They include the demand for military force restrictions (which would have to be reciprocated on the Russian side) and some form of European security architecture in which vital Russian interests would be taken into account and future clashes avoided.
It may be that either the Putin administration or the Trump administration—or both—will refuse to compromise and that talks will accordingly collapse. Testing this, however, will be an extremely complex and difficult process, requiring patience and diplomatic sophistication on both sides. It would be extremely foolish to expect either Russia or the United States to put all their cards on the table at once.
Because this process will be so difficult, the sad but unavoidable truth may be that if Ukraine takes part in the talks from the start, progress toward a settlement will become completely impossible. Every prospective compromise will immediately be leaked and will cause a firestorm of protest in Europe, in Ukraine, in the U.S. Congress, in the U.S. media, and perhaps even from Russian hardliners.
The United States has been the essential and irreplaceable supporter of Ukraine in this war, not only because of the aid that it has given but because European countries would not have given their aid without U.S. encouragement and backing. American citizens have, in consequence, been faced with great costs and considerable risks, and wider U.S. interests have been endangered. This gives U.S. citizens the right to expect their government to take the lead in trying to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war—especially since it is the only government that can.
Keep Ukraine Out of Talks to End Its War
The Trump administration needs to engage Moscow and avoid, at first, involving Kyiv.
foreignpolicy.com
But Trump promised to end the war in 24 hours!
Jeppetto
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Maybe he'll achieve it by keeping both Ukraine and Russia out of the peace talks, just talking to himself.
What are the odds, that Trump imagines that he can pressure Putin into a peace deal by threating to equip Ukraine with 'incredible, fantastic US-made weapons', just like he would simultaneously threaten Zelensky with no future US military aid, should he reject Trump's peace deal proposal?
Judging by the situation on the frontline and desertion rates in Ukrainian army, he would save Ukraine if he could keep his promise
Ukrainians used to spit at deserters... now they sympathise with them
It must feel strange to be hiding from your own army but that's exactly what Yuri is doing. Ever since he escaped from his Ukrainian barracks late one night, he has been too scared to go out in public.
And that he would do so before even taking office!
Trump has stated outright that he won't commit to abandoning Ukraine, because he believes, likely correctly, that continuing to support Ukraine is the only way to maintain any leverage on Russia to be used to pressure an end to the war.
Zelensky already knows that if the US withdraws aid Ukraine will fall. Putin is also aware that Russia can't overrun Ukraine as long as the US keeps arming/aiding them...
The other variable is the EU/UK suddenly stepping in to fill the void left by the US... which is being actively discussed, but seems unlikely to happen.
Top Russian general accused by Kyiv of chemical weapons crimes is killed by bomb in Moscow
A top Russian general accused by Ukraine of being responsible for the use of chemical weapons against Ukrainian troops has been assassinated in Moscow using a bomb hidden in an electric scooter, Russian investigators said on Tuesday.Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, who was chief of Russia's Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Protection Troops, was killed outside an apartment building on Ryazansky Prospekt along with his assistant, Russia's Investigative Committee, which probes serious crimes, said in a statement.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...osion-moscow-russian-media-report-2024-12-17/
not surprising, there are different reports depending on the source.
Now, it could also be buryats, or any other asian ethnic minority that are the most expendable/untrained soldiers Russia can sent for meat grinding assaults. But the Ukrainian were surprised.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/16/north-korea-casualties-ukraine-russia/
The White House has assessed that North Korean soldiers have moved “to the front lines … to be actively engaged in combat operations,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Monday.
[...]
The Ukrainians knew the troops moving across battlefields in Kursk weren’t Russians because the groups were too large, soldiers said. Russian troops typically move in smaller formations and stick close to tree lines to reduce their chances of being struck by Ukrainian firepower. But these troops, seemingly unafraid of enemy weapons hovering just overhead, moved in the open.
“The North Koreans are running across the fields, and there are so many of them. They don’t understand what’s happening,” said a Ukrainian drone unit commander deployed to Kursk who goes by the call sign Boxer. “I don’t know if they don’t understand what’s going on or if the Russians are deliberately sending them like that. I can’t say.”
The commander, who spoke on the condition that he be identified only by his call sign to discuss operations openly, said the assault began Saturday. The next day, more troops moved in the same way.
“FPV drones, artillery and other weapons struck them because they were moving in the open field. You can imagine the result,” he said. “We were very surprised, we had never seen anything like it — 40 to 50 people running across a field. That’s a perfect target for artillery and Mavic [drone] operators. Russians never ran like that.”
[...]
“Immediately, FPV drones, bombers — everything that could fly — was sent their way,” he said. The troops didn’t run from drones, instead “shooting at them.”
Others “just keep moving, and many of them are killed,” he said. “They’re different from the Russians, who have learned to run or hide from drones, only shooting at them from cover. The [North] Koreans just shoot indiscriminately, standing there firing.”
In one attack, Artem was flying a drone at night when he identified three soldiers by their heat signatures on a thermal camera. He and his fellow troops expected to kill just one — but because the other two didn’t respond quickly, they hit all three.
“It was a bizarre experience. For me, it was the first time it felt like playing a computer simulator on easy mode,” he said.
[...]
In one video shared to Telegram and reviewed by The Post, Russians and a North Korean soldier appear to sit in a military dugout describing a drone attack. “Maybe we should kill him and grab his rifle?” one soldier says in Russian and laughs.
Then, a soldier speaking in a North Korean dialect begins to discuss the attack. “The drone, the drone just keeps on flying!” one says. Then the two soldiers mimic drone noises to each other. “That’s right — like BAM BAAAAM!” the soldier says. The Post was not able to verify the precise location where the video was filmed.
sylvanllewelyn
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"Western" means European Union and United States, right? Can't just negotiate with the US.
"Security architecture" is an euphemism for which countries the US and Europe allows Russia to subjugate as vassal states, both politically and economically. Nothing to do with how many troops on each side of the border.
It's the EU that "messes" with Russia's vassals, not the US, right?
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