[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

Crezth said:
Well that was pretty stupid, huh?
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No it wasn't. The Budapest Memorandum was smart for Ukraine, so long as the ukranians kept up the skilfull diplomacy. The sictuation pror to its signing was that there were russian military installations with russian nuckes and bombers within Ukraine. The Red Army was inherited by the successor state, Russia. All nuclear weapons were under russian control, including the ones located on Belarus and Ukraine. Ukraine had no more control over those missiles than the dutch have over the nukes the US stored there.

Yeekin is just deploying lies as part of a false narrative of "Ukraine betraied" to justify intervention Moderator Action: Warned for trolling. The_J . The Budapesnt memorandum demanded neutrality by Ukraine, and non-interference on ukranian politcis by the other signatories. The EU and US ripped the memorandum apart in teh evends leading up to the 2014 coup, violated it openly and shamelessly.

Search and read the memorandum, it's available through the US, its depository. Point 3, economic coercion. The US sued it against Belarus in 2013, the EU used it against Ukraine in 2014 (threatened economic retaliation for signing a free trade agreement with Russia) and it provided the public justification for the coup.
 
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Yeekim said:
US and Russia jointly persuaded Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons and strategic bomber fleet in return for security assurances.
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Yes, and no. The warheads in Ukraine were not controlled by Ukraine at any point, including during their time as a Soviet republic: the strategic command for missiles was always in Moscow.

I suppose it was conceivable that Ukraine could have taken them under their own operation, but the process is much more than just having the bombs in your territory.

The understanding then, even before Budapest, was very much that the weapons were on Ukrainian territory much like they were in the GDR or Czechoslovakia—not theirs to use, but Moscow’s.
 
But weapons were in Ukraine, which means:
1- Russia can't have them
2- Ukraine can have them

Not very difficult to understand. Not very difficult either to modify a missile you already have and do whatever you want with it, specially for Ukraine that was not precisely irrelevant in Soviet Union aerospace scene. Or if you are that lazy, dismantle it totally and use the weapon grade fissionable material to build any kind of bomb or small range rocket to vaporize Moscow which is few kilometers away.
 
Last post on the subject: at the time, the external concern was about their security and Ukraine unilaterally arming itself with them would have had extreme diplomatic repercussions. No one in 1992 would have seen 2022, so our insights now were not comparable to the topics then.
 
amadeus said:
Last post on the subject: at the time, the external concern was about their security and Ukraine unilaterally arming itself with them would have had extreme diplomatic repercussions. No one in 1992 would have seen 2022, so our insights now were not comparable to the topics then.
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back to the point of security guarantees that would work this time.
 
Strong Reaction said:
This the current MAGA party line, (freeloader reference) interesting to see you toe it. Also, an admission that Russia is a predator state looking for weak actors to invade. Good to see you speak a little truth.
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... and once it has invaded them, it rarely does anything but leave everything to rot.

17 million sqm over 11 time zones and 90% of it outside Moscow and St Petersburg is nothing but squalor and dilapidation.

But seeing this toxic, cancerous blob on the map warms ruscist hearts and fills them with delusions of imperial grandeur, hence they continue to idolize their Czar.
 
Well the one thing Trump has been correct on is Europe freeloading on USA since 1992 or so.

I don't think Russias a threat to NATO even without USA. Might need French, Finish or Polish boots on ground and British/German/Italian/Spanish aircraft.

Germans probably to useless for boots on ground.

Depends on internal politics I suppose. Russian army sucks and has been trashed. Russian economy won't recover anytime soon regardless of what Trump does.
 
From my man in Moscow I hear the Russians celebrated Trump's phonecall as a victory, it is definitely the end of the US led policy of isolating Putin.

www.pbs.org

In phone call with Putin, Trump abruptly ends U.S. efforts to isolate Russia

By saying Ukraine’s NATO membership is “impractical” and the return of Russian-occupied territories to Kyiv is “illusionary,” the Trump administration is giving its blessing to key items on President Vladimir Putin’s wish list — even before a potential settlement of the conflict.
www.pbs.org www.pbs.org
 
Zardnaar said:
Well the one thing Trump has been correct on is Europe freeloading on USA since 1992 or so.

I don't think Russias a threat to NATO even without USA. Might need French, Finish or Polish boots on ground and British/German/Italian/Spanish aircraft.

Germans probably to useless for boots on ground.

Depends on internal politics I suppose. Russian army sucks and has been trashed. Russian economy won't recover anytime soon regardless of what Trump does.
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Only strategic airlift and nukes. It's the bits the US didn't want others to have. You're going MAGA in the head.
 
Verbose said:
Only strategic airlift and nukes. It's the bits the US didn't want others to have. You're going MAGA in the head.
Click to expand...

Huh?
Most of Europe in NATO has been failing at the 2^ goal.

Russias burnt through its cold war stocks. Doesn't produce enough new stuff.

If NATO sticks togather sans USA I do t see Russia as a conventional threat a'la Ukraine.

If they don't stick togather or start rearming though....
 
Kyriakos said:
"Start rearming" isn't accurate; there are 5-6 armies in the Eu that can be called "armies" at all. The rest have token numbers of modern ships/planes/tanks. The latter category is comedic as there are many Eu countries with literally ZERO tanks - yet some wish to get involved directly in war.
A few countries there can indeed rearm - and at least one can do so massively - but some others can't have an actual army even if they wish to.
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Relevant states would be UK, France, Germany, Poland. Turkey, Finland.

Airforce would be key. I assume Greece could contribute s dozen squadrons.

I did say if they stuck togather. If they don't have fun next time Turkey decides to play fun and games.

European NATO rearm or fall apart and go back to pre WW2.
 
Klaus Hergersheimer said:
I'm guessing the attackers want just enough radiation to dribble out to poison the general vicinity and keep Ukraine worried about containment, how much, what would it take, etc..
Unless there are like GI Joe Cobra Commander levels of evil-doing going on here...
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Well, I'm guessing the Russians were actually trying to repair the dome and their concrete-fixing drone got shot down by ungrateful locals. The only question is what were Ukrainian troops doing in the containment zone? Hmmm you might be right about Cobra Commander-type stuff.
 
One does not normally attack massive concrete structures with drones.

So it might just be a confused drone operator misidentified their target
in the fog of war or lost control of the drone which simply crashed.
 
That makes as much sense as anything, drone crashes are relatively common even in the best circumstances.
 
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