[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

Russia organized a new terrorist attack against Ukrainian military personnel and for the third time used a suicide bomber who did not know that he was a suicide bomber.This time, they blew up a woman in Mykolaiv city, who approached a group of Ukrainian military personnel. She died on the spot.

Russian special services recruit stupid people via the Internet. Russians promise them money and do not say that they will die. A person is told to take a bag to the soldiers. And when he gets close to the soldiers, the Russians blow him up remotely.

 
Yes, and no. The warheads in Ukraine were not controlled by Ukraine at any point, including during their time as a Soviet republic: the strategic command for missiles was always in Moscow.
Besides the nukes, Ukraine also had a bunch of strategic bombers and long range missiles. All were either scrapped or transferred to Russia, because being peaceful was considered the right thing back then.
 
Great speech. Zelensky is the greatest western leader right now undoubtedly. (Which is not that difficult tbh)
 
Besides the nukes, Ukraine also had a bunch of strategic bombers and long range missiles. All were either scrapped or transferred to Russia, because being peaceful was considered the right thing back then.
Aside from the economic costs it would have entailed to maintain that equipment properly, would it 30 years after the Soviet collapse have much battlefield value versus improved anti-air defense systems?

I can speculate that the costs would have been politically impractical then—again, no one in 1992 as far as I know would have predicted this war—but as to their military value, that question is outside the scope of my competence.
 
actually read the treaty. It's pretty clear what signatories must do (very little), and what they can avoid doing. No state has to go to war because another state is attached in the geographical area defined in the treaty. The obligation is just to provide tale suck actions as each state deems appropriate to "restore security". Hint: a surrender restores peace and security. A cease fire-whatever the terms, ends a situation of warfare. Anything goes by the terms of article 5, each government remains totally free to do anything or nothing.


Here is the Article.

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.


The geographical area is the North Atlantic area. That is because that was the area of interest to the UK, the USA, Canada and France (the non soviet powers then).

Neither Afghanistan nor Ukraine border the North Atlantic.
 
Russia organized a new terrorist attack against Ukrainian military personnel and for the third time used a suicide bomber who did not know that he was a suicide bomber.This time, they blew up a woman in Mykolaiv city, who approached a group of Ukrainian military personnel. She died on the spot.

Russian special services recruit stupid people via the Internet. Russians promise them money and do not say that they will die. A person is told to take a bag to the soldiers. And when he gets close to the soldiers, the Russians blow him up remotely.

This is jihad level of f*cked up!
 
Besides the nukes, Ukraine also had a bunch of strategic bombers and long range missiles. All were either scrapped or transferred to Russia, because being peaceful was considered the right thing back then.
Since when is Eastern Europe in the west?
 
Aside from the economic costs it would have entailed to maintain that equipment properly, would it 30 years after the Soviet collapse have much battlefield value versus improved anti-air defense systems?

I can speculate that the costs would have been politically impractical then—again, no one in 1992 as far as I know would have predicted this war—but as to their military value, that question is outside the scope of my competence.

There were people predicting a war between Russia and Ukraine in the 1990s as soon as Ukraine got its independence, and before the Budapest Memorandum was signed.
https://www.declassifieduk.org/british-intelligence-predicted-ukraine-war-30-years-ago/

With hindsight, it is obviously easy to list some of the factors that could cause tension and conflict:
-The status of Crimea and the port of Sevastopol
-The large number of people in Ukraine identifying as ethnic Russians
-The risk of an increasingly belligerent Russian nationalism

Considering the conflict occurring in Yugoslavia during those years, it must have been easy to imagine a similar scenario between Russia and Ukraine. The collapse of the Soviet system could lead to an increase in Russian nationalism and irredentism, which could then lead to armed confrontation, the same way the Greater Serbia ideology fueled the Yugoslav wars.

I am not particularly knowledgeable about the history of Russia and Ukraine during those years, but I thought the whole point of the Budapest Memorandum was creating a framework for peace in the area of the ex-Soviet Union? There is not much point in such framework if war is not considered as a possibility, however distant and unlikely it might be.
 
Moderator Action: opinions of news :thumbsup: opinions of opinions :thumbsdown:
 

Marco Rubio speaks with Sergei Lavrov ahead of US-Russia talks next week​

Officials to meet in Saudi Arabia in sign that high-level contact has resumed after being halted by Ukraine war

US secretary of state Marco Rubio has spoken with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov ahead of high-level talks between Washington and Moscow next week, as relations thaw between the countries. Rubio, national security adviser Mike Waltz and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff will meet Russian officials in Saudi Arabia next week, according to a person familiar with the matter. The high-level meeting comes after US President Donald Trump spoke with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and the two agreed to begin negotiations for ending the war in Ukraine “immediately”. Rubio “reaffirmed President Trump’s commitment to finding an end to the conflict in Ukraine”, said state department spokesperson Tammy Bruce about the Lavrov call. “In addition, they discussed the opportunity to potentially work together on a number of other bilateral issues.”

The call between Rubio and Lavrov is a significant sign that substantive work has begun on negotiations and the two nations are in regular contact again, with diplomacy normalising. Saturday’s call was the first time the US and Russia had spoken at that level in nearly two years, although they have maintained back-channel communications.
Russia’s foreign ministry said Lavrov and Rubio agreed to work together on “restoring mutually respectful interstate dialogue” according to the lines set by Trump’s call with Putin on Wednesday and to set up a meeting between the two leaders. They also agreed to create “a line of communication to solve the problems in the US-Russia relationship in the interests of removing the unilateral barriers to mutually beneficial trade, economic, and investment co-operation inherited from the previous administration”, in an apparent indication that the US was prepared to roll back sanctions against Moscow over the invasion.

Lavrov and Rubio shared a “mutual willingness to work together on current international issues” such as Ukraine, the Palestinian territories, the Middle East, and other matters, the ministry added. They also discussed lifting mutual restrictions on each others’ embassies and agreed to set up an expert-level meeting to agree “concrete steps on lifting mutual barriers” limiting their work.

 

Russia’s “Lancet” Drones Are The Terrifying New Face Of War​

Russia’s “Lancet” suicide drone system has decimated Ukrainian artillery throughout the three-year war. And now the drones are for sale.
The Aero India 2025 international aerospace exhibition is proving to be a mind-blowing and history-making affair. Already, rare scenes of Russian Su-57E warplanes parked across from U.S. F-35 Lightning II warplanes have proliferated across the internet, a sight that few believed would be possible without the two planes shooting at each other. Rumors about the goings-on at the event have been shared around the world. Now the Russians have added another layer of intrigue with the display of their Lancet-E loitering munition system.

The “E” stands for “export,” since the entire point of the Aero India 2025 is for various nations and their defense contractors to advertise their products for potential foreign buyers. In this case, the Lancet series of loitering drone munitions is exported by the Russian firm Rosoboronexport.

Russia’s Lancet-E system is three drones that operate in tandem. The first are the Product 51-E and the Z-16-E drones, which act as reconnaissance scouts for Product 52-E, the guided munition carrier. Unlike the graceful-looking but unproven Su-57, the Lancet family of drones have proven their mettle in the unfriendly skies above Ukraine since the Russians invaded in February 2022.

The Lancet is a Killer of NATO’s Artillery in Ukraine​

Indeed, the Lancet-3, an upgraded variant of the original Lancet system, is believed to have been responsible for destroying almost 50 percent of the NATO artillery systems that Ukraine has used since the start of the war! There’s really not a better sales pitch one could make for such a nightmarish system to prospective foreign buyers.

Specifically, the Lancet drones utilized by Russian forces in the Ukraine War have done extreme damage to the M777 lightweight howitzer cannon, the Polish KRAB Self-Propelled Gun (SPG), and even important surface-to-air missile (SAM) batteries that Ukraine uses to knock down Russian warplanes.

Some Facts About the Lancet Drone System​

The range of the Lancet loitering munition drone is about 40 to 50 miles. Previous iterations of Russian loitering munitions drones had a range of about half that. So Russia can now enjoy deeper penetration of Ukrainian territory to hit Ukrainian artillery and air defense systems from farther away, potentially punching holes in those defenses wide enough to allow for Russian airstrikes to have a better chance of being successful against their Ukrainian foes.

The Lancet drones are versatile and relatively cheap systems. They can carry a variety of warheads, from high-explosive (HE) to fragmentation, as well as shaped charge warheads that are meant to target various types of military assets from armored vehicles to fortifications. As for the guidance on these systems, they have optical-electronic guidance systems. Moreover, they can either be deployed autonomously or be operated by humans via remote control. Thermal cameras allow for effective nighttime attacks.

Lancet drones can be deployed via a tube launch mechanism, which makes launching these drones simpler than others and allows for rapid deployment. Given the brutal nature of the Ukraine War, where Russian and Ukrainian forces are often operating near each other, slugging it out in trenches and slogging through muddy fields, having the ability to rapidly deploy such devastating weapons is a critical advantage for Russia.

The so-called “Kamikaze Drones” are especially useful, too, because the drone itself, laden with whatever explosives the Russians have installed for a particular mission, becomes the cruise missile delivery system. It’s a very efficient and effective weapon that, again, can claim to have knocked out half of the NATO-provided artillery and SAM sites that the Ukrainians have lost since the start of the war.

The Shape of Things to Come​

As awful as the Ukraine War has been for both sides—and it has been one of the bloodiest conflicts of this century—both the Russians and the Ukrainians have proven a remarkable ability to adapt. Since the Russians are a great power, though, their adaptations can now be translated to massive sales on the global arms market.

Drones have utterly reshaped the face of war. Not even the Americans fully understand how profound the drones of the Ukraine War have changed the art of warfare in the modern age. And the Lancet system of loitering munition drones is the nightmare fuel that will run the 21st century’s various fear scenarios from now on.
 
I am worried. The US + Russia is the very strong alliance against Ukraine.
 

Marco Rubio speaks with Sergei Lavrov ahead of US-Russia talks next week​

Officials to meet in Saudi Arabia in sign that high-level contact has resumed after being halted by Ukraine war

US secretary of state Marco Rubio has spoken with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov ahead of high-level talks between Washington and Moscow next week, as relations thaw between the countries. Rubio, national security adviser Mike Waltz and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff will meet Russian officials in Saudi Arabia next week, according to a person familiar with the matter. The high-level meeting comes after US President Donald Trump spoke with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and the two agreed to begin negotiations for ending the war in Ukraine “immediately”. Rubio “reaffirmed President Trump’s commitment to finding an end to the conflict in Ukraine”, said state department spokesperson Tammy Bruce about the Lavrov call. “In addition, they discussed the opportunity to potentially work together on a number of other bilateral issues.”

The call between Rubio and Lavrov is a significant sign that substantive work has begun on negotiations and the two nations are in regular contact again, with diplomacy normalising. Saturday’s call was the first time the US and Russia had spoken at that level in nearly two years, although they have maintained back-channel communications.
Russia’s foreign ministry said Lavrov and Rubio agreed to work together on “restoring mutually respectful interstate dialogue” according to the lines set by Trump’s call with Putin on Wednesday and to set up a meeting between the two leaders. They also agreed to create “a line of communication to solve the problems in the US-Russia relationship in the interests of removing the unilateral barriers to mutually beneficial trade, economic, and investment co-operation inherited from the previous administration”, in an apparent indication that the US was prepared to roll back sanctions against Moscow over the invasion.

Lavrov and Rubio shared a “mutual willingness to work together on current international issues” such as Ukraine, the Palestinian territories, the Middle East, and other matters, the ministry added. They also discussed lifting mutual restrictions on each others’ embassies and agreed to set up an expert-level meeting to agree “concrete steps on lifting mutual barriers” limiting their work.

It does look like the end is close. And it will be a very bad end for Ukraine. One wonders if any step at all was taken to prevent this outcome - instead of supposing that the US will keep supporting Ukraine indefinitely.
 
I am worried. The US + Russia is the very strong alliance against Ukraine.
Russia can't win this war anymore, it is too weak and Ukraine has become too strong. Even if USA stop supporting Ukraine things will be the same like untill now, unless USA helps Russia actively which is unthinkable. In any case EU is already taking the place of USA without much effort. Read somewhere Germany Rheinmetall alone currently produces more artillery ammo than all USA companies together. The most worrying thing would be to see USA lifting sanctions on Russia. It would also be a funny thing to see, USA basically sanctioning the whole world except Russia. That would confirm Trump being nothing but a Putin asset and to what point people in USA have been manipulated.

But it is all speculation, better let's see how things evolve. IMO Trump is trying to give his fascist friend Putin a acceptable exit for a war he cannot win in a way Putin can present as a 'victory' and not a humiliation to the Russian people without looking as a Putin asset in the eyes of American people. A difficult balance.
 
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Some things are not speculation though,

The shortages may have already resulted in the noticeable slowdown of Russia’s occupation of Donbas.

By early February, the number of Russian attacks along the front line fell by a third, and the amount of occupied land fell four-fold since January to just 21 square kilometres (eight square miles), according to Oko Gora, a Ukrainian analytical Telegram channel.

And for the first time in months, Ukrainian forces managed to counterattack and take back tiny areas around the strategic southeastern city of Pokrovsk.


The use of braying quadrupeds to deliver ammunition and supplies is “normal”, retired Russian Lieutenant General Viktor Sobolev reportedly said.

“It’s better to have a donkey killed instead of the two men that deliver cargo in their vehicle,” he told the Gazeta.ru website on February 6.

The donkey refused to comment to AJ.
 
The donkey refused to comment to AJ.

Might be too busy chasing the carrot.

9-donkey-carrot-on-a-stick-cartoon-clipart-4169060562.jpg

Imagining remote controlled donkey drone.
 
The use of braying quadrupeds to deliver ammunition and supplies is “normal”, retired Russian Lieutenant General Viktor Sobolev reportedly said.

“It’s better to have a donkey killed instead of the two men that deliver cargo in their vehicle,” he told the Gazeta.ru website on February 6.
Sorry if I sound totally stupid. I am looking for a serious answer. What is wrong with using pack animals to carry ammunition and supplies?
 
Sorry if I sound totally stupid. I am looking for a serious answer. What is wrong with using pack animals to carry ammunition and supplies?
nothing, so why weren't they using them at the beginning of the war ?
 
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