[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

[Gedemon]

Not sure if you posted before the (albeit very quick) explanatory edit with (some of) our great plans

yep, started to answer before the edit.

IMO one can not plan anything with Trump being a part of the plan.

Sanctions are working, not fast enough, granted, but they are. Or "were" if the US start trading with Russia again before the end of the war, it's would have been for nothing.

Have you forgotten that Biden already had stated that Ukraine won't be in Nato?
It is arguable that the US had long ago (before even 2014) decided that it would back down from that.

Germany and France were opposed to Ukraine in NATO not so long ago (and who can say if the US will stay in NATO ?)

 

[Snowygerry]

US presidents say all sorts of silly things, then the next president says something else and that it is that.

Best to not get hung up on the particular madness of the day, stick to your own strategy, that is oppose the Russian state at every turn, they are our systemic enemy, after all, not the US.

 

[Kyriakos]

Germany and France were opposed to Ukraine in NATO not so long ago (and who can say if the US will stay in NATO ?)

Perhaps a bit of a tangent (I did ask if we could have a thread on this specifically, but I don't wish to start it even if we can...), but why do you think a Nato without the US won't mean that most sides of note will end up in a new alliance led by the US instead of one centered in the Eu?
Because to me this is also a questionable plan.

 

[Gedemon]

Perhaps a bit of a tangent (I did ask if we could have a thread on this specifically, but I don't wish to start it even if we can...), but why do you think a Nato without the US won't mean that most sides of note will end up in a new alliance led by the US instead of one centered in the Eu?
Because to me this is also a questionable plan.

all recent news about US international decisions about their "allies" ?

See Canada, Australia, Japan and Korea participating in yesterday military conference in Europe, without the US.

Deterrence is a key issue as army chiefs from 30-plus countries talk about a Ukraine force

Ukraine was hoping for answers to key questions as European army chiefs and other military officials from over 30 countries met in Paris for talks on an international force for Ukraine after any ceasefire.

apnews.com

and yes, maybe that's worth another thread, but it's also relevant here as the US leaving EU was part of Russia ultimatum before starting the war, here is one demande Putin may strike off his list soon (if that was a real issue for him, not just a pretext)

 

[Yeekim]

Maybe, but one thing to consider is that the US isn't some tiny state in the middle of nowhere; it has state policy that transcends who is potus.

I believed that as recently as 3 months ago.

 

[Kyriakos]

all recent news about US international decisions about their "allies" ?

See Canada, Australia, Japan and Korea participating in yesterday military conference in Europe, without the US.

Deterrence is a key issue as army chiefs from 30-plus countries talk about a Ukraine force

Ukraine was hoping for answers to key questions as European army chiefs and other military officials from over 30 countries met in Paris for talks on an international force for Ukraine after any ceasefire.

apnews.com

and yes, maybe that's worth another thread, but it's also relevant here as the US leaving EU was part of Russia ultimatum before starting the war, here is one demande Putin may strike off his list soon (if that was a real issue for him, not just a pretext)

Still, would those far away countries reasonably wish to be in an alliance with the Eu instead of the US? Eu has next to no power projection - apart from France, which has deteriorated in Africa so that's not a good sign - while the US has demonstrated its ability to militarily intervene around the planet.
Even for Canada, it wouldn't exactly be wise to not be in alliance with the US (despite Kissinger's memorable phrase). It's not like the Eu could defend Canada (or anyone else) from the US.

I believed that as recently as 3 months ago.

Maybe true to a small extent in regards to Ukraine (because, as I mentioned, the US had been explicit for some time now that it is not going to accept Ukraine in Nato), but not in other things we now see. Their policy is to secure their interests and take over where it suits them (Greenland, for example, fits that bill).

 

[Yeekim]

why do you think a Nato without the US won't mean that most sides of note will end up in a new alliance led by the US

Who and why would or could ally with US that is becoming explicitly isolationist?

Of course it would be wise for Canada to continue alliance with US. But how can they if US does not recognize this?

 

[Kyriakos]

Who and why would or could ally with US that is becoming explicitly isolationist?

The obvious cases would be the outremer like Japan and Korea. They'd need to be insane to expect military help from the Eu (there's not even the ability for such).
Canada and Australia are two other cases, for similar reasons.

 

[Gedemon]

Still, would those far away countries reasonable wish to be in an alliance with the Eu instead of the US? Eu has next to no power projection - apart from France, which has deteriorated in Africa so that's not a good sign - while the US has demonstrated its ability to militarily intervene around the planet.
Even for Canada, it wouldn't exactly be wise to not be in alliance with the US (despite Kissinger's memorable phrase). It's not like the Eu could defend Canada (or anyone else) from the US.


Maybe true to a small extent in regards to Ukraine (because, as I mentioned, the US had been explicit for some time now that it is not going to accept Ukraine in Nato), but not in other things we now see. Their policy is to secure their interests and take over where it suits them (Greenland, for example, fits that bill).

Canada is already part of NATO, and point of an alliance, if that need to be explained, is that all nations in the alliance are stronger together than alone.

Better have the largest nation on your side, but if you can't have that, you'd better ally together to present a credible deterrence in an alliance than being picked up one by one alone.

And nothing prevent Canada to be in different alliances with the US and the EU, same for Japan, South Korea and Australia.

And I must ask one more time that it would be nice of you to backup your opinion (like Canada not wanting to be in an alliance with the EU) with some sources, as I provided one showing the opposite.

 

[Yeekim]

The obvious cases would be the outremer like Japan and Korea. They'd need to be insane to expect military help from the Eu (there's not even the ability for such).
Canada and Australia are two other cases, for similar reasons.

The ability can be created, if there is will.
Conversely, ability without will is worthless.


And since it is the US that is demonstrating a lack of will to maintain its alliances...

 

[Snowygerry]

First reactions are promising :

ISW analyses Russia’s reaction to possible ceasefire

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War have pointed out that Russian ultranationalists have not welcomed the proposal for a possible ceasefire in Ukraine, but state-run Russian media outlets are “likely attempting to portray the immediate Russian reaction as moderate for domestic audiences”.

www.pravda.com.ua

Russian bloggers, including those close to the Kremlin, claimed that the United States and Ukraine would "abandon" peace "at the first opportunity" and that the war in Ukraine is "existential for Russia".

These bloggers also claimed that accepting the ceasefire would be "pure betrayal and sabotage".

In addition, Lieutenant General Viktor Sobolev, a member of the Russian State Duma [lower chamber of the Russian parliament] and former commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, argued that Russia should reject the 30-day ceasefire proposal, calling it "unacceptable" as it would give Ukraine time to rearm and regroup.

Mikhail Sheremet, a member of the State Duma's Security Committee, stated before the joint statement was issued that Russia was open to a settlement in Ukraine, though it would not be deceived. Russian state media only amplified his remarks after the ceasefire proposal was announced.

Will be intersting to see if the reactions of our Russian posters here fit this pattern.

 

[Kyriakos]

Canada is already part of NATO, and point of an alliance, if that need to be explained, is that all nations in the alliance are stronger together than alone.

Better have the largest nation on your side, but if you can't have that, you'd better ally together to present a credible deterrence in an alliance than being picked up one by one alone.

And nothing prevent Canada to be in different alliances with the US and the EU, same for Japan, South Korea and Australia.

And I must ask one more time that it would be nice of you to backup your opinion (like Canada not wanting to be in an alliance with the EU) with some sources, as I provided one showing the opposite.

Geopolitically it makes no sense for Canada to be allied to the Eu instead of the US. Now if you have a scenario where the US is about to invade, naturally Canada could try to ally with anything - but we are not there, nor will we be there (by default) if Nato breaks up.
Germany also once tried to ally with Mexico. You recall how convincing that was.
Speaking of which, why expect the Monroe doctrine to no longer apply? (explicitly for military alliances) Imagine what would happen if China tried to have a military base in Mexico, because "everyone is free to join us if they wish to".

 

[Snowygerry]

Meanwhile the captain of the cargo ship that rammed the American supply ship turns out to be a Russian, who would have thought that

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/12/uk/solong-captain-russian-stena-north-sea-crash-intl-gbr/index.html

The Solong careered into the Stena Immaculate while it was at anchor in the North Sea and carrying huge amounts of jet fuel for the US military, setting fire to both vessels and prompting emergency rescue efforts by the British coastguard.

British police have since opened a criminal investigation into the crash and arrested a 59-year-old man on suspicion of gross negligence manslaughter.

A spokesperson for Ernst Russ, which owns the Solong, confirmed to CNN that the arrested man is the ship’s captain and that he is a Russian national.

 

[EvaDK]

I don't see Putin agreeing to the ceasefire proposal; he does not want peace with a sovereign Ukraine, that in his eyes has no right to exist.

I expect the Russians to find some detail in the US/Ukraine ceasefire proposal that they can't accept, or make demands that Ukraine/the US can't accept

But the dilemma that is likely on Putin's mind right now, is how he can reject the ceasefire proposal without insulting Trump, who brokered the deal and has invested all his personal prestige towards 'ending the war'.

Sadly I am not at all optimistic that Putin will moderate his demands.

And what the Donald will do if Vlad Putin does not is to me an unknown future.

This.

 

[Snowygerry]

Logically that means we should all support this ceasefire, so as to make it more difficult to refuse.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

I don't see Putin agreeing to the ceasefire proposal; he does not want peace with a sovereign Ukraine, that in his eyes has no right to exist.

I expect the Russians to find some detail in the US/Ukraine ceasefire proposal that they can't accept, or make demands that Ukraine/the US can't accept

But the dilemma that is likely on Putin's mind right now, is how he can reject the ceasefire proposal without insulting Trump, who brokered the deal and has invested all his personal prestige towards 'ending the war'.

'Invested his personal prestige' is a way to say it, the other way is that Trump can't afford licking Putin's boots anymore, it is already too embarrassing.

 

[Snowygerry]

We must chase the American elephant into the Russian porcelain shop

 

[Lord Shadow]

I don't see Putin agreeing to the ceasefire proposal; he does not want peace with a sovereign Ukraine, that in his eyes has no right to exist.

I expect the Russians to find some detail in the US/Ukraine ceasefire proposal that they can't accept, or make demands that Ukraine/the US can't accept

But the dilemma that is likely on Putin's mind right now, is how he can reject the ceasefire proposal without insulting Trump, who brokered the deal and has invested all his personal prestige towards 'ending the war'.

Peace in general is incompatible with either nation's ultimate goals, be it the Russian destruction of independent Ukraine or the Ukrainian reclamation of Crimea and all of its internationally recognized territory.

However, both sides need and seek a break from the war. Russia wants an ultimately temporary ceasefire to restock, recover and try again later. Ukraine knows this, which is why they want security guarantees. Obviously they still want their land back, but I guess they've acknowledged they don't currently have the means to retake it, and further exposure to material and manpower attrition is only going to make it harder to maintain current territorial integrity.

However, peace isn't quite a no-brainer for Putin. Recalling hundreds of thousands of soldiers who'll likely receive lacking support from the government may lead to increased crime and disruption at home. See Afghanistan Syndrome. He may be weighing that versus upsetting his semi-docile but unpredictable American asset, who's trying his darnedest to give his Kremlin buddy a way out of the quagmire.

 

[Snowygerry]

Also, by now Trump will regard himself as the stronger party, he no longer needs Russian support to win a US election.

 

[Birdjaguar]

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