[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

How could Putin respond to US-Ukraine ceasefire plan?
It was after 21:00 on Tuesday night in Moscow when the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined the Ukrainian and American proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia.

By Wednesday afternoon, the Kremlin appeared to be still weighing its response to the proposals.

Russia's foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova declined to be drawn into specifics, saying that "the formation of the position of the Russian Federation [would] take place inside the Russian Federation".

And Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov skirted the issue. "Let's not get ahead of ourselves," he said, adding Moscow was "acquainting itself" with the joint statement issued in Jeddah.

There are reports that US envoy Steve Witkoff could travel to Moscow on Thursday, and Peskov said the press would be kept informed. Other than this, it was no comment from the Kremlin.

President Vladimir Putin is no doubt thinking carefully about whether to accept the ceasefire proposal, reject it, or demand amendments to it.
 
I don't see Putin agreeing to the ceasefire proposal; he does not want peace with a sovereign Ukraine, that in his eyes has no right to exist.

I expect the Russians to find some detail in the US/Ukraine ceasefire proposal that they can't accept, or make demands that Ukraine/the US can't accept

But the dilemma that is likely on Putin's mind right now, is how he can reject the ceasefire proposal without insulting Trump, who brokered the deal and has invested all his personal prestige towards 'ending the war'.
Based on what I’ve read, Putin seems pissed by the situation. His response appears to be along the lines of, "Why now?! After I managed to gain some territories?" Previously, Ukraine had control over certain territories that could be used as leverage. However, now that he has lost those bargaining chips, Zelenskyy seeks to fold his hand and push for a ceasefire. Under these circumstances, Putin seems determined to double down on his position, perceiving the proposal as "unfair".
 
Kremlin says there's 'nothing' for Russia in a US ceasefire idea for Ukraine
  • Kremlin says truce would give respite to Ukraine military
  • Kremlin: Russia wants long-term peace settlement
  • Putin orders defeat of last Ukrainian troops in Kursk
  • Putin to speak at news conference on Thursday - Kremlin
Putin pushes his luck. From a superficial perspective, at least.

I wonder if the implied scenario is real, the possibility of a Trump-Putin break, or just part of a pre-planned tight dance between the magnate and the tzar.

It's hard to believe almost 40 years of Kremlin conditioning would allow an asset to snap and bite its handler in any serious capacity.

We'll see.
 
What is it going to take for liberals to drop the Russian asset crap and admit that America's rottenness, and not Russian machinations, is why Trump is president?
Who says they can't be both? Clearly Russian influence would've had less traction if the American political establishment had been in better shape.
 
Putin says that Ukranian forces in Kursk region, Russia will be treated like terrorists.


Putin, Dressed in Fatigues, Visits Kursk to Cheer Efforts to Oust Ukraine’s Troops​

The trip comes as President Trump looks to secure the Russian leader’s support for a 30-day cease-fire.

By Paul Sonne

Reporting from Berlin
  • Published March 12, 2025Updated March 13, 2025, 10:33 a.m. ET
Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, dressed in fatigues, visited a command post near the front in Kursk late Wednesday to cheer on his military’s ejection of Ukrainian forces from much of the territory they had been occupying in the Russian border region.

The Russian leader’s pointed visit came a day after a U.S. delegation met in Saudi Arabia with Ukrainian officials, who agreed to a 30-day cease-fire in the war. American officials planned to take the proposal to Mr. Putin, who has previously said he is not interested in a temporary truce.

Dressed in a green camouflage uniform, Mr. Putin sat at a desk with maps spread out in front of him, according to photos released by the Kremlin. He appeared with Russia’s top military officer, Gen. Valery V. Gerasimov.

In video footage released by Russian state media, Mr. Putin praised the Russian military formations that had taken back much of the territory captured by Ukraine in the Kursk region. He called on the troops to seize the territory for good from Ukrainian forces, who have been occupying portions of the Russian border region since last summer. Kyiv had hoped to use the territory as a bargaining chip in peace talks.

The Russian leader also demanded that Ukrainian forces taken prisoner in the region be treated and prosecuted as terrorists under Russian law. General Gerasimov said more than 400 Ukrainian troops had been captured in the operations.

“People who are on the territory of the Kursk region, committing crimes here against the civilian population and opposing our armed forces, law enforcement agencies and special services, in accordance with the laws of the Russian Federation, are terrorists,” Mr. Putin said.


He added that “foreign mercenaries” do not fall under the Geneva Convention governing the treatment of prisoners of war. The conflict, which began with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, has drawn foreign fighters. This month, Russia sentenced a 22-year-old British man who had volunteered for the Ukrainian Army to 19 years in prison on terrorism and mercenary charges, after his capture in the Kursk region last year.

Russian forces stepped up an offensive to push Ukrainian troops out of the region this week, as Kyiv reeled from the Trump administration’s decision last week to freeze U.S. intelligence and military assistance to Ukraine after an explosive confrontation in the Oval Office between President Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.

By then, Russian forces were already well on their way to taking back Sudzha, the main population center in the Kursk region that was captured by Ukraine last year.

For months, Ukraine’s occupation of Russian territory has been a sore point for Moscow, which bolstered its forces with North Korean soldiers in an attempt to take back the land.

Russian officials boasted of a breakthrough attack in Kursk last Saturday, when, they said, some 800 fighters traveled about 10 miles through a disused gas pipeline to carry out a surprise attack on the Ukrainian rear.

On Wednesday, Ukraine’s top military commander, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, said in a statement that Ukrainian forces would be moving to “more advantageous positions” if necessary and would “hold the line in the Kursk region for as long as it remains reasonable and necessary.” He added, “In the most difficult situations, my priority has been and remains the preservation of Ukrainian soldiers’ lives.”

Mr. Putin has said that any temporary cease-fire or truce will only provide an advantage to Ukrainian forces, who are on the back foot on the battlefield and could use the reprieve to replenish personnel.

Russia has demanded a broader security agreement backed by the West, including a guarantee that Ukraine will not be admitted to the NATO military alliance, as well as other commitments that risk eroding Ukraine’s sovereignty.

“We do not need a truce,” Mr. Putin said during his annual news briefing in December. “We need peace: a long-term and lasting peace with guarantees for the Russian Federation and its citizens.”

Marc Santora contributed reporting from Kyiv, Ukraine.
Paul Sonne is an international correspondent, focusing on Russia and the varied impacts of President Vladimir V. Putin’s domestic and foreign policies, with a focus on the war against Ukraine. More about Paul Sonne
 
And about Putin's views on a ceasefire, well, he says not until the *ahem* "initial causes" of the start of the conflict are addressed.
From this I assume he means a Ukraine which does not have someone sympathetic to him in power, like there was before.
It's all carrots and no sticks for this guy, apparently.

Putin said he also wants guarantees that during a 30-day ceasefire, Ukraine will not regroup, and he wondered who would determine if there were any violations of a ceasefire.


"These are all issues that require careful investigation from both sides," he said.

Putin suggested Russia should talk with Trump to discuss his concerns, while adding, "But the idea itself is to end this conflict with peaceful means. We support it."

At the top of his remarks, the president thanked Trump "for his attention to Ukraine's settlement."

"We believe that this ceasefire should lead to a long-term peace and eliminate the initial causes of this crisis," Putin said.
 
In the press conference with Lukashenko, Putin said that he is in favor of a ceasefire, but on the condition that anything constituting a violation of it is clearly predefined and agreed upon (eg taking the time just to rearm was one possible violation he mentioned) so that it can be dismissed if it needs to, and also on the condition that the prospect is for it to actually become lasting peace (those two conditions can possibly be read as one condition). He also argued that he needs reassurances that the ceasefire will not be abused (eg to simply rearm etc) because agreeing to it would mean stopping the current Russian advances.

Here is a video of that (you can select English subtitles).
 
That's impossible, even on his side: how would he stops Russia from rearming with the current state of its economy ?
 
Just an idea. You can maybe start with ceasefire guarantees by pulling out everyone from the front lines who's a mercenary or who's escaping servitude within Russia. These opportunistic elements are not really conducive to a lasting peace, if that's what we're looking for.

I imagine Ukraine might have some of these rogue types running around too, but I'm not too well read on them. There are certainly foreign volunteers there who'd have to consider leaving. Zelenskyy will have to tell them to.

Do I think this will happen? No, but it's something to ponder. You don't want every Tom, Dick, and Harry with a rifle over there trying to maintain a ceasefire; one of them is bound to snap.
 
That's impossible, even on his side: how would he stops Russia from rearming with the current state of its economy ?
We shall have to see if he will either tentatively agree (ready to cancel by referring to violations etc etc) or he will simply try to first kick the remnants of Ukraine's army from Kursk and then force a peace conference (not a ceasefire) due to the risk of more general collapse by Ukraine.
At any case, I doubt anyone expects Russia to agree to a ceasefire before Ukraine has (by force or capitulation or mass desertion) completely left Kursk (as they clearly don't plan to have to negotiate for Kursk).
 
ho, directly Putin's words then (general collapse, mass desertion, capitulation, finishing off, remnants), great source.
 
From the Reuters link: "Putin says..." is like saying "Trump says..." and using that as some kind of believable source of truth.

CEASEFIRE 'NUANCES'​

At his news conference, Putin said Russia supported the idea of a ceasefire, but with the caveat that it should lead to a long-term peace and eliminate the root causes of the conflict.

He said there were a number of "nuances", including in Kursk, where a truce would be "very good" for the Ukrainian side.
"If we stop hostilities for 30 days, what does that mean? That everyone who is there will leave without a fight? Should we let them out of there after they have committed a lot of crimes against civilians? Or will the Ukrainian leadership give us the order to lay down our arms? It is not clear."
Ukraine denies committing such crimes, says it abides by humanitarian law and does not target civilians.
The Russian Defence Ministry said earlier that its forces were pounding remaining Ukrainian positions after capturing three more settlements including Sudzha, which is located near the border with Ukraine and lies on a road that Kyiv had used to resupply its forces.
Video from Sudzha, published by Russian media and military bloggers, showed scenes of devastation from the seven months of fighting, with burnt-out vehicles, roofless buildings and mountains of rubble.
Reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin in Moscow and Mark Trevelyan, Lucy Papachristou and Darya Korsunskaya in London; additional reporting by Yuliia Dysa in Gdansk; Editing by Andrew Heavens

Gotta love it when Putin takes the Ukrainians to task for crimes against civilians.
 
At his news conference, Putin said Russia supported the idea of a ceasefire, but with the caveat that it should lead to a long-term peace and eliminate the root causes of the conflict.
An impossible aim, considering among the "root causes of the conflict" for Russia is Ukraine's very existence as an independent free state.

He's still gunning for, at the very least, Ukraine's demilitarization or otherwise neutralization, so it can languish as a lifeless appendix serving as a buffer between Russia and NATO.

Gotta love it when Putin takes the Ukrainians to task for crimes against civilians.
The Soviets and Russians have a long history of accusing others of what's normal behavior in them.

Overall, the war has been costly for Russia and has forced the reshaping of its economy and parts of its society. They've made gains but I believe Putin believes Russia deserves to win harder, lest the return on investment turns out negative. They've gone too far, lost too much to come out of it with so little.

Not to mention the potential consequences and fallout of gearing down from an unprofitable war and having to reshape the nation all over again for peacetime.
 
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