[RD] Russia invades Ukraine: Part II

[amadeus]

Sergei Shoigu, minister of defense (and as such having the Ukraine war under his responsibilities) and among the top three men closest to Putin, hasn't been seen for weeks and is reported to be away "with heart problems". Obviously lots of speculations.

It reminded me of the 1991 Soviet coup, whose leaders declared President Gorbachev to be too ill to continue working.

30 years later, all the coup plotters are dead and Gorbachev is still alive. Guess he made a speedy recovery!

 

[Verbose]

This strategy discussion all reminds me of Civ3.

How to divert, slow, weaken, stop, drive back and destroy the dreaded "Stack of Doom".

More like a "Stack of Hopelessness" right now, and not all that big...

 

[Samson]

I think the point is to force to buy rubles, hence increasing the demand and slowing its fall.

To support ruble. It's growing last two weeks and USD/RUB exchange rate is already close to pre-war levels.
Also to buy rubles, Germany will have to find a way to bypass their own sanctions.

But I do not understand how it makes a difference. Say there are:

• German Energy inc. want to pay 2 billion euros to Gazprom
• Gazprom want to pay 1 billion euros worth of rubles to its staff, and buy 1 billion euros worth of foreign widgets
• Foreign exchange inc. will buy and sell rubles and euros

Either:

• German Energy inc. pays Foreign exchange inc. 2 billion euros, gets rubles, gives to Gazprom, Gazprom gives half to Foreign exchange inc. for 1 billion euros
• or
• German Energy inc. pays gives 2 billion euros to Gazprom, Gazprom gives half to Foreign exchange inc. for 1 billion worth of rubles

These seem like they would have the exact same effect on the exchange rate.

 

[Akka]

I imagine it's just as much for PR effect than actual effects.

 

[Hrothbern]

But I do not understand how it makes a difference. Say there are:

• German Energy inc. want to pay 2 billion euros to Gazprom
• Gazprom want to pay 1 billion euros worth of rubles to its staff, and buy 1 billion euros worth of foreign widgets
• Foreign exchange inc. will buy and sell rubles and euros

Either:

• German Energy inc. pays Foreign exchange inc. 2 billion euros, gets rubles, gives to Gazprom, Gazprom gives half to Foreign exchange inc. for 1 billion euros
• or
• German Energy inc. pays gives 2 billion euros to Gazprom, Gazprom gives half to Foreign exchange inc. for 1 billion worth of rubles

These seem like they would have the exact same effect on the exchange rate.

With payments in Euro Russia needs to have a reserve in Euros.
With payments in Rubles German-Western banks need to have a reserve in Rubles

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bank-reserve.asp#:~:text=Bank reserves are the minimal,and declines to loan out.

EDIT:
With no longer paying in Rubles all banks in the world now holding Ruble reserves can sell them off.

 

[uppi]

But I do not understand how it makes a difference. Say there are:

• German Energy inc. want to pay 2 billion euros to Gazprom
• Gazprom want to pay 1 billion euros worth of rubles to its staff, and buy 1 billion euros worth of foreign widgets
• Foreign exchange inc. will buy and sell rubles and euros

Either:

• German Energy inc. pays Foreign exchange inc. 2 billion euros, gets rubles, gives to Gazprom, Gazprom gives half to Foreign exchange inc. for 1 billion euros
• or
• German Energy inc. pays gives 2 billion euros to Gazprom, Gazprom gives half to Foreign exchange inc. for 1 billion worth of rubles

These seem like they would have the exact same effect on the exchange rate.

Sure, if it was not for sanctions preventing some of these actions

 

[amadeus]

With payments in Euro Russia needs to have a reserve in Euros.
With payments in Rubles German-Western banks need to have a reserve in Rubles

I’m not familiar with finance stuff, but generally wouldn’t it be fair to say there is more demand out there for the euro than the ruble? I would think getting enough rubles together would be easier for Europe than Russia to exchange its rubles for euros.

Euros are second only to the US$ for global commerce, with the yen, pound sterling, and Swiss franc generally making up the remainder... so I just don’t see where this makes sense for Russia.

Again, not a finance guy so my understanding could very well be completely wrong.

 

[Civinator]

On the military front, it seems Ukraine stroke Russian ships in Berdyansk. Seems ammunitions were destroyed, but it's unclear if it's a depot or a ship which carried them.

The destroyed ship should be the Russian Alligator Class landing ship Orsk.

Edit: Civ 3 animations of a landing ship of the Alligator class added:

 

[r16]

This strategy discussion all reminds me of Civ3.

How to divert, slow, weaken, stop, drive back and destroy the dreaded "Stack of Doom".

actually we Civ lll players have been honoured with the Javelin against tanks thing , to be noticed only when the Ukranian victory was complete . And while this is now tagged RD , my moment was not the mind numbing spearman against the tank , but elite warrior on a hilltop attacked across the river by a regular tank ... And this post will be one for history or something by the Pentagon refusal to discuss why Civ lll Al will not attack an army of Knights in the open .

 

[Anysense]

This I totally do not understand. With a fiat currency, what is the difference in say German energy companies paying in euros compared to buying rubles with euros and paying with those?

But if you could buy Russian gas only with rubles it would make ruble something more than just another fiat currency. It also would make Russia less dependent on unreliable western financial institutions.

 

[Ferocitus]

With payments in Euro Russia needs to have a reserve in Euros.
With payments in Rubles German-Western banks need to have a reserve in Rubles

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bank-reserve.asp#:~:text=Bank reserves are the minimal,and declines to loan out.

EDIT:
With no longer paying in Rubles all banks in the world now holding Ruble reserves can sell them off.

Anticipating SWIFT being pulled from under Russia, Germany gave itself another payment option. A few
weeks ago it joined up with the Chinese system, so it could circumvent sanctions and pay in yuan.

There doesn't seem to be much consistent adherence to the sanctions at the moment.
AFAIK, SWIFT is still available as a means of payment. Lithuania and Poland, despite signing up to
the oil sanction, are still buying it from Russia.
That might change after the meeting that Biden is attending in Brussels.

 

[red_elk]

"These are not money. Give me rubles!"

 

[IgrOK[SU]]

"A new Russian textbook of Mongolian history: when Genghis Khan's troops approached, the inhabitants of cities immediately began to slaughter themselves. The troops had to take these cities in order to stop the slaughter."

Yulia Latynina, Russian writer and journalist.

 

[Ferocitus]

Sure, if it was not for sanctions preventing some of these actions

The sanctions seem a bit "optional" at the moment. Countries who agreed to not buying oil, still are.
SWIFT is still in place (AFAIK). Russian banks should be barred, but in the UK the Russian bank VTB
was given a 30 day grace period. That bank has given about £44k in donations to the Tory Party since
2018.

 

[EgonSpengler]

The BBC is talking about the attack on the Orsk in Berdyansk. One of them says it's indicative of Ukrainian counter-attacks in areas the Russians thought they'd secured. They said it was unclear how the attack was done, but he said it appeared the explosion came from the dock. I think he said the explosion also set fires on two other ships.

I also heard earlier today that Russians are digging in outside one of the Ukrainian cities they've been unable to capture. Kyiv, maybe. It sounds like it's really going sideways for the Russians. I have to wonder at what point they decide it's no longer worth it. If Putin were rational, they'd never have invaded to begin with. I kind of feel like this ends with a military coup in Moscow.

 

[red_elk]

Ukrainian MoD published video of shooting down 4 Ka-52 helicopters.
Turned out to be a video from ARMA 3
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/shocking-moment-four-russian-helicopters-23488369
https://ua.interfax.com.ua/news/general/817429.html

 

[Akka]

Poland has expelled 45 diplomats that were accused of being spies.
There was smoke above the Russian ambassy in Poland yesterday, which could indicate the burning of document, so I guess it doesn't come as as a surprise.

Also, there are claims that Ukraine destroyed a cargo truck carrying thermobaric rockets. If not a fake, it could means that the Russians might ramp up on the indiscriminate shelling.

 

[Ferocitus]

The BBC is talking about the attack on the Orsk in Berdyansk. One of them says it's indicative of Ukrainian counter-attacks in areas the Russians thought they'd secured. They said it was unclear how the attack was done, but he said it appeared the explosion came from the dock. I think he said the explosion also set fires on two other ships.

I also heard earlier today that Russians are digging in outside one of the Ukrainian cities they've been unable to capture. Kyiv, maybe. It sounds like it's really going sideways for the Russians. I have to wonder at what point they decide it's no longer worth it. If Putin were rational, they'd never have invaded to begin with. I kind of feel like this ends with a military coup in Moscow.

I think a lot depends on how much you believe the figures and analysis of partisan media,
pro-Russian or pro-Ukrainian. The BBC has not given much coverage to Russia's superiority in terms
of missiles, ships, planes and other equipment that Ukraine can't match. I'm not saying that they will
definitely swing the war one way or another, but BBC reports seem very one-sided so far.

Also, what type of equipment has Russia lost? Did it bring the best of its tanks at the start of the
invasion, ones that were upgraded from earlier, less capable types, or the higher performance ones
(of which it has far fewer)

"Digging in" can seem like a losing manoeuvre, but I'm not sure that it can be cast in a completely
negative light. Ukrainian counter-attacks, AFAICS, have not regained much territory yet, and their
troops don't seem able to roam freely and engage Russian forces on terms that are always favourable
to them.

Resupply will also play a major role over the next few weeks. For Ukraine - from NATO and others, and
for Russia's forces depending on whether they are near Kyiv, or near the coastal areas they control.
I wouldn't be going to the bookmaker with the rent money quite yet, unless they're giving extremely
good odds.

 

[Samson]

"Digging in" can seem like a losing manoeuvre, but I'm not sure that it can be cast in a completely negative light.

I suspect this is true. I would imagine the logic is something like "Are we just about to move?" Yes = rest, No = Dig in.

 

[Ferocitus]

I suspect this is true. I would imagine the logic is something like "Are we just about to move?" Yes = rest, No = Dig in.

I don't know. Maybe morale suffers when dug in, but they also prevent supplies coming in, and
are more difficult to dislodge. Are they safer dug in because they also have superior air support?
There are too many unknowns, and partisan media reports from both sides don't help a bit.