It is difficult for me to see what the current Ukrainian offensive will achieve that is really key.
Ukraine capturing a few square kilometers of ground at high human costs seems scarcely worthwhile bearing in mind
the immensity of EurAsia. Unless it can lead to a breakthrough and from that encirclement and destruction of a
russian army or pose such a threat that Russia accordingly undertakes a wider withdrawal to prevent just that.
Ukrainian forces are attempting to drive a wedge in and divide the Russian occupying forces in two.
If succesful combined with the train link on the Kerch bridge disabled, all Russian troops in Crimea, South of Kherson and in the Zaporizhzia Oblast are deprived of supply lines, which will likely give them around a couple of weeks at most.
If Crimea is liberated, Putin is politically a dead man walking back home in Moscow. Russians do not tolerate what they perceive as weaklings or losers in charge.