[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: The 7th Thread Itch; scratch it here!

[Lexicus]

"Yeah, newsflash, Germany lost World War I"

LOL, but hey analysing the history of that war, was it because Butcher Haig could brag abour his "victory" on the Somme, because the Frenchies advanced a couple of sq miles in Verdun, or only because the Germans overextended themselves badly 1-2 years after and were only really stopped after a second Marne and overwhelming amounts of fresh American troops poured in?

So that's the fine details, lol.

"Given the balance of material resources here, the fact that you have to limit expectations (repeating "limited, undeclared war" over and over - all signs are that Russia's military resources are being stripped to feed the war, including along NATO and soon-to-be NATO frontier) and that the only positive spin you can come up with is "Russia hasn't (yet) been decisively defeated" is telling."

Russia has retreated voluntarily from the Kiev region. So what, there is massive Western aid coming, and 280k Russians deployed, but this isn't the scale of total war or decisive conflict yet.

It's like the US in Vietnam. And surely, the Russians can still be humiliated like the US in Vietnam, but that was nowhere near the US against Japan or Nazi Germany. Nuff said.

You don't seem to understand the degree to which Russia has already been humiliated, at least to people who aren't looking for any possible excuse or spin to make Russia's position look good.

 

[red_elk]

Isn't the total of all military and nonmilitary aid somewhere around $150 billion? Not really hundreds of billions' worth.

IIRC it's closer to 200. But things like providing military intelligence and training may be not included in this number, and those had significant impact.
All in all Western military aid increased Ukrainian army effectiveness at least several fold.
Disregarding that fact and claiming Ukrainian army has comparable combat effectiveness with Russian one, is misleading to say the least.

Given the balance of material resources here

Which, as I have been repeatedly told here, is much more in Ukrainian favor, if we trust diagrams and graphs posted here, with comparison of military budgets between Russia and NATO.

 

[MPorciusCatoCivver]

"Disregarding that fact and claiming Ukrainian army has comparable combat effectiveness with Russian one, is misleading to say the least."

In the end, the US gave billions of dollars to Afghan legalists to keep up stuff when they retreated.

That didn't last a thing. Afghan loyalist troops lost to mountain militia armed with bamboo spears, jezails (a kind of 19th century rifled musket) and 50's vintage AK's.

Overall, given the condition of the current Ukrainian state and the fact that many Ukrainian troops laid their arms down voluntarily early, because they were too incompetent, weak and lacking in morale to fight, monetary aid might as well mean everything or nothing.

Like I said, the current Ukrainian army is still a Bolivia tier army. Only time will tell if their attritional containment is enough to keep the Russians at bay. But I believe the Russians will settle down in their own favor in time.

 

[Lexicus]

All in all Western military aid increased Ukrainian army effectiveness at least several fold.
Disregarding that fact and claiming Ukrainian army has comparable combat effectiveness with Russian one, is misleading to say the least.

No one is denying the importance of western military aid to Ukraine. But it should also be remembered that Ukraine handled Russian forces (including some of the most "elite" Russian units) very roughly at the start of the war before much Western aid had had time to make any difference.

Which, as I have been repeatedly told here, is much more in Ukrainian favor, if we trust diagrams and graphs posted here, with comparison of military budgets between Russia and NATO.

Meh. Russia has more materiel and more manpower. And only a small fraction of NATO members' military budgets are going to Ukraine.

It is interesting that you are now changing tack to claim Russia is the underdog here when last week you were sharing articles claiming that Russian artillery shell production would be ten times the American output even after it is ramped up over the next year.

Anyway just so we don't get it confused I am not claiming Ukraine is currently winning decisively or that it will win decisively in the end. All I'm saying is Ukraine is making more effective use of its military resources than Russia has so far. And again, given that most western observers believed Russia would defeat Ukraine within a matter of days (the US even evacuated its embassy before the invasion for this reason!), Ukraine has put up a good fight, and will go down in history as a heroic example of armed resistance to tyranny even if they do lose.

 

[red_elk]

Meh. Russia has more materiel and more manpower. And only a small fraction of NATO members' military budgets are going to Ukraine.

It is interesting that you are now changing tack to claim Russia is the underdog here when last week you were sharing articles claiming that Russian artillery shell production would be ten times the American output even after it is ramped up over the next year.

Russia has more manpower, >90% of which is at home, while Ukraine still has numerical superiority at the frontline. Yes, they are scraping at the bottom, resorting to mobilizing old and sick, but this is what they have to do in order to keep the war going. Advantage in artillery gives Russia favorable casualty rate, but it cannot by itself win the war or capture the territory without enough boots on the ground.

I'm not claiming Russia is the underdog here - the whole discussion started from the claim about corruption and it ignored important facts about Western military aid and that Russia still doesn't conduct large scale mobilization due to political reasons.

 

[PhroX]

"Yeah, newsflash, Germany lost World War I"

LOL, but hey analysing the history of that war, was it because Butcher Haig could brag abour his "victory" on the Somme, because the Frenchies advanced a couple of sq miles in Verdun, or only because the Germans overextended themselves badly 1-2 years after and were only really stopped after a second Marne and overwhelming amounts of fresh American troops poured in?

So that's the fine details, lol.

Germany lost in no small part because it was bled white by the allies in battles such as those you mentionned. The only realy hope the Germans ever for victory had was a quick win, at least against one of it's major oppoennts. Once it became a war of attrition, they were almost inevitably going to be ground down by the superior resoures arrayed against them. And so it proved. The 1918 German offensive never really got close to a victory regardless of the US. They threy away even more lives, particularly among their best troops, and resources capturing ground that didn't matter, while the allies marshalled their strength, held onto key points and prepared the war ending strike.

 

[Core Imposter]

I think the Ukrainians have put up a good fight. But the biggest determinant has been that we are fully in the age of missiles and drones. Autonomous war machines are coming. The Patriot system had or used to have a fully automatic mode which in fact was the default in the second Gulf war. We actually shot a couple of our own planes down.

 

[Akka]

Russia has more manpower, >90% of which is at home, while Ukraine still has numerical superiority at the frontline. Yes, they are scraping at the bottom, resorting to mobilizing old and sick, but this is what they have to do in order to keep the war going. Advantage in artillery gives Russia favorable casualty rate, but it cannot by itself win the war or capture the territory without enough boots on the ground.

Meanwhile, in the real world, it's Russia which has raised the age for conscription, which has also raised the age for military reservists (up to 55 years old for regular soldiers), which is down to human trafficking to replenish its forces, which has documented material losses three times those of Ukraine and which is on the defensive despite having recruited 280 000 soldiers since the beginning of the war (their own words).

Just in case anyone forgot the pathological lying that comes with seemingly every pro-Russian poster.

 

[red_elk]

I think the Ukrainians have put up a good fight.

They did, no worse than Russians.
Hope Europe won't deport those who don't want to kill and be killed. Nothing good will come out of this, for us and for them.

 

[MPorciusCatoCivver]

Meanwhile, in the real world, it's Russia which has raised the age for conscription, which has also raised the age for military reservists (up to 55 years old for regular soldiers), which is down to human trafficking to replenish its forces, which has documented material losses three times those of Ukraine and which is on the defensive despite having recruited 280 000 soldiers since the beginning of the war (their own words).

Just in case anyone forgot the pathological lying that comes with seemingly every pro-Russian poster.

Let's not forget this: the Ukrainians have decreed general mobilization. But the Russians haven't. It's a Vietnam for them, only.

 

[saamohod]

They did, no worse than Russians.

In places like Bucha? Or in places like my hometown where Russian troops were gunning down cars with civilians who tried to flee in the first days of the invasion, killing whole families?

How much of a psychopath does one have to be in order to equate the actions of the Ukrainian military with those of the Russian invaders?

 

[Birdjaguar]

after a crushing Russian advance took 85% of that city and everything around.

There is no Bahkmut. In order to "capture" the city, Russia had to destroy it.

 

[Birdjaguar]

@MPorciusCatoCivver If you only want to quote a portion of a post, highlight it tightly (quote or reply tags should appear). Hit "reply" and the highlighted text will appear quoted in a reply box. If you hit the "quote" tag, you willhave to click on the add quote button in the reply box.

 

[MPorciusCatoCivver]

@MPorciusCatoCivver If you only want to quote a portion of a post, highlight it tightly (quote or reply tags should appear). Hit "reply" and the highlighted text will appear quoted in a reply box. If you hit the "quote" tag, you willhave to click on the add quote button in the reply box.

Thanks didn't know it! Many thanks indeed.

 

[Lexicus]

>90% of which is at home

I would dispute that percentage at least as regards effective military manpower.

 

[Remorseless1]

I think the Ukrainians have put up a good fight. But the biggest determinant has been that we are fully in the age of missiles and drones. Autonomous war machines are coming. The Patriot system had or used to have a fully automatic mode which in fact was the default in the second Gulf war. We actually shot a couple of our own planes down.

The Ukrainians shot down their own planes? Got proof on that?

Interesting you said "we." I had no idea you were Ukrainian. You sound overly sympathetic to the Russians.

 

[Akka]

The Ukrainians shot down their own planes? Got proof on that?

Interesting you said "we." I had no idea you were Ukrainian. You sound overly sympathetic to the Russians.

Seems more an American who speaks about how the US shot a couple of their plane down during the Gulf War.

 

[PaxImperator]

'Ukrainian forces continue to advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Geolocated footage posted on September 5 shows Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions northwest and west of Robotyne, indicating that Ukrainian forces have advanced into an area near the settlement that Russian forces previously claimed to control.[1] Additional geolocated footage posted on September 5 shows that Ukrainian forces have also advanced south of Robotyne and northwest of Verbove (about 10km east of Robotyne).[2] Geolocated evidence of Ukrainian forces northwest of Verbove suggests that Ukrainian forces are advancing along the line of Russian fortifications that runs into the settlement. Ukrainian military sources also confirmed that Ukrainian forces have been successful in the Robotyne—Novoprokopivka directions south of Orikhiv, and further reported that Ukrainian forces are pursuing successful offensive operations south of Bakhmut.[3]

Russian sources continue to complain that Russian forces lack sufficient counterbattery capabilities and artillery munitions in the face of ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive activities, which the Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) are reportedly attempting to combat. Russian milbloggers claimed on September 4 and 5 that Russian counterbattery systems are performing poorly along the front in Ukraine.[4] The milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are relying heavily on Lancet drones and 220mm and 300mm rounds for Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), of which there are limited stockpiles.[5] One Russian milblogger noted that the Russian MoD‘s plans to form five new artillery brigades in each of Russia’s five military districts are in part meant to improve general counterbattery capabilities.[6] It is unclear if the milblogger is claiming that the MoD plans to form five or 25 brigades total. The milblogger claimed that the Russian MoD would equip the new brigades with 203-mm 2S7 Pion and 2S7M Malka artillery systems from Russian stores.[7] The New York Times reported on September 4 that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok from September 10-13 and will reportedly discuss North Korea’s supply of artillery shells to Russia.[8] Russian sources have continually complained that Russian forces face problems with counterbattery operations.[9]

Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area are likely succeeding in pinning elements of the 7th Guards Mountain Airborne (VDV) Division and preventing them from laterally redeploying to critical areas of the front in western Zaporizhia Oblast. A Russian milblogger posted an audio recording on September 5 purportedly from a soldier in the Russian 247th VDV Regiment in which the soldier claims that he has to retrieve bodies of Russian personnel near Staromayorske because the Russian command is not overseeing the retrieval of bodies and claimed that his unit lost 49 killed in action in one day of fighting.[10] The Russian soldier’s claims suggest that elements of the 247th Regiment remain defending in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast area, despite claims from a prominent Russian source in late August that some elements are fighting in the Robotyne area.[11] ISW previously observed that elements of 108th VDV Regiment and 56th VDV Regiment — the two other constituent regiments of the 7th VDV Division — have redeployed to the Robotyne area.[12]'

Cont.: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-5-2023

 

[Gedemon]

Show me empirical and relevant proof Russia's performance is that bad in the first place. For a limited, undeclared war, including the fighting around Bakhmut, it hasn't performed that poorly. There were still many glaring mistakes and defeats, but nothing really decisive.

that's not a limited war, have you seen the estimated numbers of casualties ?

it's not Vietnam or Afghanistan.

this is the deadliest war for Russian and Ukrainian soldiers since WWII.

Ukraine, strategically speaking, has no way to defeat Russia. Only to contain them.

Ukraine is not alone, because, independently of the US backing, if Ukraine fails to win back its territory alone, the Russian war will continue with Europe, and expand.

But like I said, nobody here expects the Russian army to be top notch or is a Russia fanboy in the first place.

there was a lot everywhere, and, before the war, most of them weren't even Russia fanboy.

I mean, I'm not, but I did believe the "2nd army in the world" ranking.

The war proved everyone wrong, and when Wagner was still around, the Russian army was the 3rd army in Ukraine, and the 2nd in Russia.

Objectively speaking, we're speaking about facts, despite the pro-NATO and pro-Western bias of much the media, the Russians are still advancing

they are still advancing ? they've not since more than one year, except at Bakhmut, at what cost, for what gain ?

and keeping their own without the sort of decisive defeat that the Ukrainians need to remove them. And that's because, even if it's corrupt, rigid and obsolete in terms of equipment, tactics and doctrine, the Russian army is decent enough to keep order on its former Soviet backyard. At least.

But going against a real NATO army, or China, or the US, that's another matter...

and now China is the new labelled 2nd army in the world...

but are you sure they'd done better than Russia in Ukraine ?

 

[Core Imposter]

The Ukrainians shot down their own planes? Got proof on that?

Interesting you said "we." I had no idea you were Ukrainian. You sound overly sympathetic to the Russians.

No. I am American. Talking about autonomous weapons. Our Patriots were on automatic in the 2nd gulf war, and we shot down some of our (US) aircraft. Overly sympathetic to the Russians is hard to be, war is grievous. But I think this war is as much our fault as it was the Russians. I'd just like to get out of it without any nuclear weapons being used. Now or later, when the Russians return the favor and arm our adversaries. Ukraine is just another country the US is going to leave devastated as we go along our merry way.