[RD] Russia invades Ukraine V: The Turning Tide

[Zardnaar]

Seems to be advancing all a long the front. So basic math. 800 km front let's say. 200k men.

That's about 250 men per kilometer. Not all of those men are infantry most probably aren't. Western army only about a third would be Russia not sure due to how depleted the btgs are.

However we know there's concentrations in places like Kherson say 20k that means they have to thin the front elsewhere.

They might even have less than 200k.

If the concentrations soak up say half of the troops you're down to 125 odd men per kilometer. Anywhere between a third or two thirds are not infantry maybe more as Russian btgs were light on infantry.

So probably something like 50-100 troops per km. If they only have 150k troops that's something like 37-75 men per kilometer.

That's a very thin line with no reserves or depth. We also know there's rear echelon troops as well so that's even less.

 

[amadeus]

Brightly lit interiors of schools, hospitals etc are a sign of the decadent West.

There used to be a joke in Romania during the Ceausescu years:

Q. what did Romanians use before candles?

Spoiler :

A. electricity.

(Reference to the curbs on electric consumption to pay back Romania’s enormous foreign debts in the 1980’s.)

 

[Kupe Navigator]

I hope this anexation will be lead to the end of this war, if the Ukranian accept that, what is very unlikely.

This so-called annexation will only drive Ukrainian resolve stronger

 

[Verbose]

I hope this anexation will be lead to the end of this war, if the Ukranian accept that, what is very unlikely.

That's just Russian magical thinking.

 

[Henri Christophe]

This so-called annexation will only drive Ukrainian resolve stronger

Now Russia have for pieces to deal a peace, if Ukranian rly wants the peace it can deal with it's own territory

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Ukrainians dont want peace, want their country back.

 

[Zardnaar]

Russian and Ukrainian sources reporting breakthroughs near Kherson.

Seems they're flexible on borders. Apparently the "annexation" was to stop Ukrainian advances as they wouldn't dare attack "Russia".

 

[Kupe Navigator]

Now Russia have for pieces to deal a peace, if Ukranian rly wants the peace it can deal with it's own territory

Just like how Russia wanted peace after Nazi Germany attacked them during operation babarossa?

 

[FriendlyFire]

So probably something like 50-100 troops per km. If they only have 150k troops that's something like 37-75 men per kilometer.
That's a very thin line with no reserves or depth. We also know there's rear echelon troops as well so that's even less.

Theres probably a lot of L/DPR forces given how deeply both have mobilized their manpower
The other thing is Russia still has material advantage in terms of artillery, air power and tanks. Which has allowed them to hold such as long front with less manpower.
This balance will probably change if Russia keeps donating to Ukraine.

 

[keli]

If you want some more info on how the FX situation is in Russia and how banks deal with it, then this is a great video. Don't believe all is well and all is the same in Russia:

 

[FriendlyFire]

Possibly LNR forces, shortages of shoes, food and weapons.
I think it is kinda ironic that the classics two Russians with one gun has made its appearance in this war.

NYTimes: “ Russian soldiers are running, and ‘we are running after them,’ Ukrainian fighters say”​

“They were firing on us two days ago.” But many of the Russian conscripts were in poor shape, he said. “Lots of times they were wearing flip-flops, malnourished,” he said. Two Russian soldiers his unit found had only one gun between them,
At another abandoned Russian position, he said, they found graffiti apparently left behind by fleeing soldiers that used a slur to describe their commander. “It does not scream of a well mobilized army,” he said. “My feeling is they don’t want to be here.”

Ukraine Presses Forward on Two Fronts as Horrors of War Linger

A reclaimed village provides a glimpse of the toll of a sweeping counteroffensive in the east. Kremlin-installed officials said they had also lost ground in the south, as Moscow acknowledged that the borders of the territory it has illegally annexed were in flux.

www.nytimes.com

 

[uppi]

Now Russia have for pieces to deal a peace, if Ukranian rly wants the peace it can deal with it's own territory

It is exactly the opposite. A peace deal right now would require Russia trading away parts of "Russia" (in the Russians' deluded minds), which wound be a dangerous thing to do for any Russian leader.

There will be no peace until either side is defeated or these "annexations" are rescinded.

 

[Zardnaar]

Ukrainians are modern day cupids. Drone found a couple of Russian soldiers being affectionate with each other.

Instead of arrows the Ukrainians dropped a grenade. Mean cupids.

 

[Akka]

I hope this anexation will be lead to the end of this war, if the Ukranian accept that, what is very unlikely.

You know, after following this thread for so long, this kind of idiocy has no excuse anymore.


Though, speaking of it... We really need Inno to come back explain to us clueless fools how Russian are easily winning this war on the cheap with little losses. His deep wisdom and keen insight are sorely missed here, we're a bit lost and in need of his guidance.
Meanwhile Russians are boldly charging backward with Ukrainians fleeing after them : large surface in northern Kherson liberated.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

^Yep, inno post were pretty funny. At least he has the decency of not appearing around here anymore. That is more than can be said of others.

One more screenshot from the lesson. On the right side - cities founded by Catherine the Great (Odessa, Nikolaev, Kherson, Melitopol, Mariupol, Dnepr, Simferopol, Sevastopol). On bottom right corner: "These are Russian lands where Russian people live".

Full text of the lesson (autotranslate):




View attachment 640875

So, the final motivation for Russia invading Ukraine has been finally uncovered. It was not because NATO, biological weapons, to save ethnical Russians, because Jewish-nazis etc etc etc... It is because Russia is trying to return to the 19th century!

 

[Kyriakos]

Any verified status of the front and territories under the two sides control?

 

[Yeekim]

. It is because Russia is trying to return to the 19th century!

Nah.
The congress of Berlin (1878) pretty clearly set the principle that you have to at least control the territory in order to annex it.
Seems more like a return to Golden Horde times.

 

[Akka]

Ukraine claimed Russia lost 44 tanks yesterday.
Don't know if it's because of serious fighting or captured hardware during the offensive, but I don't think I've ever seen such amount before.

 

[Zardnaar]

Any verified status of the front and territories under the two sides control?

Sorta it generally gets reported 6-12 hours after reddit/Twitter.

Kherson region/Dnipro area even Russian source's are reporting retreats.

 

[Akka]

Sorta it generally gets reported 6-12 hours after reddit/Twitter.

Kherson region/Dnipro area even Russian source's are reporting retreats.

Actually, most of the information about Kherson comes directly from Russian sources, as Ukraine enforces an operational silence here. Only declare liberated settlements, so well after the frontlines has advanced.