[RD] Russia invades Ukraine V: The Turning Tide

[EvaDK]

Significant progress in the South. If they are not allowed to retreat soon, thousands of Russian troops will be captured on the North-Western bank of the Dnipro river by the advancing Ukrainians towards Beryslav.
Then the question is whether the Ukrainians plan to make a risky river crossing and encircle Kherson, which will only be advisable if they have enough troops and HIMARS in the sector.


https://www.berlingske.dk/internationalt/seneste-nyt-om-krigen-i-ukraine-foelg-udviklingen-her

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Actually, most of the information about Kherson comes directly from Russian sources, as Ukraine enforces an operational silence here. Only declare liberated settlements, so well after the frontlines has advanced.

Yes, it seems most OSInt Twitters, at least the reliable ones, get the info from Russian soldiers writing about his peripecies in telegram channels. The fact Ukrainians keeps a strict silence shows the difference in discipline and how chaotic things are in the Russian side and ultimately who is going to win this war.

 

[Zardnaar]

Actually, most of the information about Kherson comes directly from Russian sources, as Ukraine enforces an operational silence here. Only declare liberated settlements, so well after the frontlines has advanced.

I was referencing Russian media not telegram which I'm aware of as well.

 

[Akka]

Kremlin circus with a new spectacles by our favourite clowns :

Russia doesn't know where its own self-declared borders are.
The "annexation" was so chaotic and ill-planned, Russia isn't sure what is supposed to be part of it and what isn't. Still to be determined, stay tuned. Guys decide to claim they annex something, but they haven't determined what this something is.
You can't make this up.

 

[Grendeldef]

Slightly off-topic, luckily so far, but during local '23 budget discussions and probably also inspired by the latest events in Ukraine local military leadership has spoken out refreshingly blunt manner. Apparently exactly the type of Russian attack, even the details, to Ukraine has been #1 threat scenario to Finland since mid-90s and therefore a focus of defense planning in general since late 90s - no one seems to be even remotely suprised by the special eff up operation nor the incompetence of it. General smirk seems to be on everyone's face without a need supress it too much or like the President said when asked what sort material aid we have given to Ukraine as the specifics are not known - "it'll make a noticeable difference". It sounded much better in Finnish and an unthinkable thing to say few years ago.
Enough Ukrainians died here or nearby during the last Soviet parade so I'll hope they've learned something from it and been consulted later.

So far only in Finnish as I assume YLE & the papers are thinking how to report this without sounding too smug.

https://yle.fi/uutiset/74-20000582

 

[FriendlyFire]

Latest Russian Map of Kherson
Still a way to go before the last bridge will be in range of Ukraine Artillary.

 

[REDY]

Russia doesn't know where its own self-declared borders are.

Should be the national motto.

 

[Verbose]

Kremlin circus with a new spectacles by our favourite clowns :

Russia doesn't know where its own self-declared borders are.
The "annexation" was so chaotic and ill-planned, Russia isn't sure what is supposed to be part of it and what isn't. Still to be determined, stay tuned. Guys decide to claim they annex something, but they haven't determined what this something is.
You can't make this up.

Russia never accepted its borders. They are somehow an affront. So it makes sense, kind of... since the point of the claims isn't that Russia controls things, but that they are Russian no matter what. So what if they have a "variable geometry", depending on the form for the day of the Russian armed forces, Putin's mood, or whatever?

Inexactitude has been a tool and a valuable commodity for this Russian government for years. This really is just a form of doubling-down on the previous Russian "red lines" it insisted existed, and crossing them would mean hell to pay, but it wasn't going to actually tell anyone what these were, or where. Everyone was supposed to just keep guessing, and if they were actually real? And that way hopefully no one would dare move at all of course. It's largely how the Russian government, even more so the Chinese, have reduced their own populations to abject passivity. They clearly want to do the same to every other actor in international politics – including the Ukranians that Russia is at-war-with-still-without-quite-admitting-it-is-a-war.

 

[Henri Christophe]

It is exactly the opposite. A peace deal right now would require Russia trading away parts of "Russia" (in the Russians' deluded minds), which wound be a dangerous thing to do for any Russian leader.

There will be no peace until either side is defeated or these "annexations" are rescinded.

That is a problem, I'm afraid if the peace don't come quick Russia can use it's nuclear arsenal.
And I think it can be used now since Russia already claim some territory to them.

 

[Gedemon]

That is a problem, I'm afraid if the peace don't come quick Russia can use it's nuclear arsenal.
And I think it can be used now since Russia already claim some territory to them.

No, it can't, accepted/expected use would be if the existence of Russia is threatened.

Losing those last added oblast won't threaten Russia existence, in fact one can say they were going far better before they decided to invade and annex them.

If Russia should use a tactical nuke to protect its existence, it should target Putin's palace at a convenient time.

 

[Verbose]

That is a problem, I'm afraid if the peace don't come quick Russia can use it's nuclear arsenal.
And I think it can be used now since Russia already claim some territory to them.

Putin can do it without any reason just fine. What you seem to be saying is that either you think his little annexation spree gives him sufficient reason, or at least that you think it gives him sufficient reason inside Russia...

It is an insane proposition, but Putin is making it precisely in the hope everyone might reason like you – and let him get away with lopping off bits of Ukraine that are 1) not Russian, 2) not under Russian control properly even – but everyone should just immediately stop doing what they are doing, and let him get away with what he has been doing. Or else – nukes – QED. Everyone should be intimidated into passivity.

But should he fire something like that off (unless he goes for a massive decapitating First Strike against the US, effectively making the US disappear in one go, not that it is really possible) then the so far proposed insanity of "tactical" nukes against Ukraine will get a US/NATO conventional response destroying all Russian military assets in Ukraine and the Black Sea. So then Putin WILL lose all of Ukraine.

What he can do then is of course to again escalate the nuclear strikes, targeting western Europe/the US, which will result in nuclear retaliation, etc... But it will only happen in the steps of – 1) Russia uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine, gets hit by a conventional response and – 2) Russia escalates by a second barrage of nuclear weapons more generally against everyone it decides it is aggrieved by – and only then as nr 3) is Russia met by nuclear retaliation, when it has already reduced much of the western world to nuclear rubble.

That is the worst case scenario Putin really want us all to think that he might really carry out...

The US, NATO etc. will under no circumstances initiate a nuclear exchange. Russia is threatening to do so. And by implication, if if gets the now promised conventional response to a Russian first-use of nuclear weapons, it really only can escalate by keeping attacking with nuclear weapons.

How crazy should we gauge Russia at this point? How real are these Russian threats really? Should the Russian threats just stop everyone cold in their tracks, and allow Putin to make off with these Ukranian lands he has barely seized (if one is generous), and is fast losing?

 

[Aiken_Drumn]

Ukraine claimed Russia lost 44 tanks yesterday.
Don't know if it's because of serious fighting or captured hardware during the offensive, but I don't think I've ever seen such amount before.

Captured would be super sweet.

 

[Snowygerry]

Putin can do it without any reason just fine. (...)

I doubt it. There is an understanding among military men on all sides (as opposed to politicians, or civilians) that's the last thing we need,

see the Korean war for example when McArthur wanted to use them, or even when Trump just hinted at their use in Afghanistan,

A president cannot just launch a nuclear weapon "from the hip" so to speak, it takes a military chain of command to agree, and such an order does not go unnoticed...or unopposed.


There is also the question of their readiness, from what we've seen from the rest of the Russian army - their warheads might as well have been sold off to the Albanian maffia decades ago

 

[IgrOK[SU]]

Should be the national motto.

I've seen Russian who love it. They say the moving borders bring in the "frontier", something like the Wild West. Cool new territories to have fun on them.

 

[Verbose]

I doubt it. There is an understanding among military men on all sides (as opposed to politicians, or civilians) that's the last thing we need,

see the Korean war for example when McArthur wanted to use them, or even when Trump just hinted at their use in Afghanistan,

A president cannot just launch a nuclear weapon "from the hip" so the speak, it takes a military chain of command to agree, and such an order does not go unnoticed...or unopposed.


There is also the question of their readiness, from what we've seen from the rest of the Russian army - their warheads might as well have been sold to the Albanian maffia decades ago

I would tend to agree just generally, that yes, you are of course correct.

It's just that this Russian state is such a shambles, who knows really? There is very little in the form of actual checks and balances on Putin as president as far as we know.

Russia did get help to secure its nuclear forces after the Soviet collapse. It is the seriously invested in part of the Russian military, and given the gravity – or usual gravity, when Putin hadn't yet gone off his rocker and walked himself into an impossible situation – of the nukes, it should be relatively less hampered by corruption.

 

[keli]

"Russia’s State Duma more than unanimous in ratifying annexation treaties, with more votes in favor than deputies present"

Russia’s State Duma more than unanimous in ratifying annexation treaties, with more votes in favor than deputies present — Meduza

Russian State Duma deputies have ratified four treaties signed by Vladimir Putin and the heads of several Ukrainian regions, where annexation “referendums” were conducted on Sept. 23–27. The treaties join the self-proclaimed “DNR” and “LNR,” as well as Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions...

meduza.io

This level of incompetence, insane. Like you just have to push a few buttons to at least have the appearance of legitimacy. Russia couldn't even pass this level. It sure feels like the whole Russian state is breaking down.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Not present ones voted by mail. Case closed.

 

[Snowygerry]

I would tend to agree just generally, that yes, you are of course correct.

It's just that this Russian state is such a shambles, who knows really? There is very little in the form of actual checks and balances on Putin as president as far as we know.

Russia did get help to secure its nuclear forces after the Soviet collapse. It is the seriously invested in part of the Russian military, and given the gravity – or usual gravity, when Putin hadn't yet gone off his rocker and walked himself into an impossible situation – of the nukes, it should be relatively less hampered by corruption.

Reminds me of the German nuclear/missile scientists in '45 - they could afford to let Germany go down the drain because they knew they would be picked up by the Western Allies and given a comfortable life - even after Berlin went to hell.

The fate of the indiviual is not always tied to the survival of the nation state, in fact - most of the time it isn't.

Everyone's fate IS tied to having a habitable planet left after the current war.

 

[Akka]

Davydiv Brid has fallen. Another strongpoint of the Kherson front that get liberated.

 

[keli]

Ukraine claimed Russia lost 44 tanks yesterday.
Don't know if it's because of serious fighting or captured hardware during the offensive, but I don't think I've ever seen such amount before.

I found this piece of info on reddit, not sure it's true:

"Apparently they sank two pontoon barges trying to move tanks across the Dnipro river yesterday"
"Ah yes, Arestovich did mention that."