[RD] Russia invades Ukraine V: The Turning Tide

[Birdjaguar]

US finalizing plans to send approximately 30 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, two US officials say​

US finalizing plans to send approximately 30 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, two US officials say | CNN Politics

The US is finalizing plans to send approximately 30 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, two US officials familiar with the deliberations told CNN.

www.cnn.com

 

[FriendlyFire]

Pentagon Will Increase Artillery Production Sixfold for Ukraine​

The Army’s top acquisition official says production of the 155-millimeter shells badly needed by Kyiv will rise to 90,000 a month in two years.

WASHINGTON — The Pentagon is racing to boost its production of artillery shells by 500 percent within two years, pushing conventional ammunition production to levels not seen since the Korean War as it invests billions of dollars to make up for shortfalls caused by the war in Ukraine and to build up stockpiles for future conflicts. The effort, which will involve expanding factories and bringing in new producers, is part of “the most aggressive modernization effort in nearly 40 years” for the U.S. defense industrial base, according to an Army report.

The new investment in artillery production is in part a concession to reality: While the Pentagon has focused on fighting wars with small numbers of more expensive precision-guided weapons, Ukraine is largely relying on howitzers firing unguided shells.
Before Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, the U.S. Army’s production of 14,400 unguided shells a month had been sufficient for the American military’s way of war. But the need to supply Kyiv’s armed forces prompted Pentagon leaders to triple production goals in September, and then double them again in January so that they could eventually make 90,000 or more shells a month.

The west can easily supply Ukraine with 1.2 Mil shells per year, provided that most of the munition manufactors in the EU, Asia, US step up there shell production
The main problem is going to be political will and costs, SouthKorea is for example sitting on large stockpiles of shells, like the North it has shell casings, parts some 3 Mil in storage ready to be assembled for if NK war kicks off again. These can be stored for a long time as they arent fully assembled shells but stockpiles will mean a ready supply for long term war.

Major shell producers probably need government money to expand shell production like the US has done. Othewise its a cost losing venture as no point in building new production lines for a years worth of production and then shutting it down
But I think its clear that the war will continue for years so it comes down to political will of the West

 

[Birdjaguar]

But I think its clear that the war will continue for years so it comes down to political will of the West

I don't think that Putin and the Russian economy can last years without resolution. It's not June 1941, the summer of 1942 or 1943. There are no Nazis armies overrunning the country. There is no Lend Lease. Quite the opposite. My guess is that if Putin cannot make (and keep) significant progress by fall 2023 or if the Ukrainians makes significant progress in the same time frame, Putin's war effort will collapse.

 

[Zardnaar]

I don't think that Putin and the Russian economy can last years without resolution. It's not June 1941, the summer of 1942 or 1943. There are no Nazis armies overrunning the country. There is no Lend Lease. Quite the opposite. My guess is that if Putin cannot make (and keep) significant progress by fall 2023 or if the Ukrainians make significant progress in the same time frame, Putin's war effort will collapse.

Pretty much way I see it wars gonna be decided this year imho.

 

[Quintillus]

I'm glad to see Germany is finally freeing the Leopards. Optically it doesn't look great that it likely-not-coincidentally arrived the same day as (or officially, I suppose one day after) the Abrams announcement, but if Abrams is what it took, good that they'll be arriving at some point too. Maybe Macron's comment about potentially sending French tanks helped move things along too.

I agree that it is becoming more and more clear that Putin's hopes of a breakdown of Western support for Ukraine are not coming to pass. German natural gas stockpiles are at an all-time high for this time of year, and by the next time Putin could have leverage on that, LNG import terminals will be up and running in sufficient quantity to make Russian natural gas unnecessary. Tanks and IFVs are incoming. Artillery production is being increased in the U.S, so Russia can't count on that running out. All that Putin has left is manpower and the possibility of a spring offensive.

Put that way, I'm thinking maybe the analogy for Russia's situation is Imperial Germany around this time of year in 1918, before fresh American troops and arms had arrived in large quantities, but with significant economic isolation already a growing issue. A wave of support for their foe is incoming, and they know it, but if they move quickly they have one more chance, however remote, of potentially winning before sufficient quantities of that support arrive. If that doesn't succeed, the odds will stack more and more against them as time goes on.

 

[Akka]

Pentagon Will Increase Artillery Production Sixfold for Ukraine​

The Army’s top acquisition official says production of the 155-millimeter shells badly needed by Kyiv will rise to 90,000 a month in two years.

Nah, not possible. Didn't you hear, NATO is disarming itself and unable to compete in military production and technology against a corrupt country with the GDP the size of Spain.

 

[Zardnaar]

Nah, not possible. Didn't you hear, NATO is disarming itself and unable to compete in military production and technology against a corrupt country with the GDP the size of Spain.

Hey at least Russias economy is bigger than Australia!!!!!

 

[sherbz]

Its hard to see anything other than a complete capitulation of Russia now (unless you are @innonimatu – in which case its been an inevitable Russian victory straight from the outset and Ukraine should accept Russian demands in order to preserve life).

Although Ukraine might not have the numbers of tanks they requested (they requested 300 and have got just over 1/3rd of that). They are technically superior and if deployed correctly will blunt any spring offensive Putin might have been pinning his hopes on. They might not be able to go on and retake all the land Russia has stolen. But I don’t think they really need to. All they need to do is exert a much pressure as possible and kill off any Russian attacks. Then the inevitable war fatigue, huge loss of life etc will be too much to bear.

Hopefully Putin dies before that. And the war is ended out of necessity due to the power vacuum that is bound to follow.

 

[Akka]

Although Ukraine might not have the numbers of tanks they requested (they requested 300 and have got just over 1/3rd of that). They are technically superior and if deployed correctly will blunt any spring offensive Putin might have been pinning his hopes on.

While all the announcements of support are very good, it's sadly a bit more complex on the ground.
First, Ukraine is getting lots of different models, each one requiring its own training and logistic support, which is already a headache.
Second, they are head and shoulder above the Russian hardware, but they are still far from being invincible, and are simply not numerous enough to defend a whole front. 100 tanks are a boon, but it's too little to work on anything but a concentrated attack.
Russia is in dire straight, but it's authoritarian enough to just plow on regardless of public opinion, and callous enough to just try to bury the problem under bodies. Ukraine has one third of the population, it means it needs to inflict disproportionate casualties to stay ahead.

I think Ukraine can and is favourite to win, but it should be an error to write off Russia so soon. They are (slowly, but still) learning. They are starting to keep veterans in the rear to train the new conscripts rather than just waste untrained men on the frontline, and they keep mobilizing (even if they try to do it under the radar, the "first wave" has never stopped, and while the official numbers were 300 000, several sources said that the unofficial was one million, which would be much more in line with the neverending conscription).
We are sending tanks, we should be sending jets already.

 

[sherbz]

I might be naïve. But I would have thought the majority of tank training revolves around formations, deployment, tactics, firing, maneuvering etc. Or in other words, not very much to do with which buttons you press to make it do those things. So does it really make that much difference which tank you are using? Even in jets, which are far more technically complex, pilots do the bulk of their training in a different plane entirely from the one they will eventually be flying.

I don’t write off Russia. But even in the most optimistic appraisal – which is that the Spring offensive is successful and they inflict a decisive defeat on the Ukrainian military. They will still lose. Because they would face a guerrilla war indefinitely and the West would never recognise anything they imposed in Ukraine, so they would still be in economic and political isolation. Likely for a generation or more.

 

[E.man]

Hey at least Russias economy is bigger than Australia!!!!!

I thought they were about the same ... ?

 

[Sarin]

I thought they were about the same ... ?

Not yet. Going by nominal GDP, Russia is 9th in the world with 2,1 trillion USD, Australia is 14th with 1,7 trillion.

We'll see at the end of this year though. Russia is due for severe contraction due to loss of revenue from exports and sanctions.

 

[Akka]

Not yet. Going by nominal GDP, Russia is 9th in the world with 2,1 trillion USD, Australia is 14th with 1,7 trillion.

We'll see at the end of this year though. Russia is due for severe contraction due to loss of revenue from exports and sanctions.

From where do you get these sources ?
Russia is far lower than that ; I don't even know if it ever reached 2 trillions $, and if it ever did, it was probably before the 2008 crisis.
As of now, depending on sources, it's between 1,4 and 1,8, and is below Italy and around South Korea, a bit higher than Spain and Australia probably but on the same ballpark.

 

[Sarin]

From where do you get these sources ?
Russia is far lower than that ; I don't even know if it ever reached 2 trillions $, and if it ever did, it was probably before the 2008 crisis.
As of now, depending on sources, it's between 1,4 and 1,8, and is below Italy and around South Korea, a bit higher than Spain and Australia probably but on the same ballpark.

List of countries by GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I used 2022 IMF numbers.

 

[EvaDK]

^ Always use real GDP when comparing economic performance between nations; nominel GDP does not adjust for inflation and thus can give you misguided data about the real performance of the economy.

Top 15 real GDP 2022

Europe was by far Russia's largest customer with regards to gas and oil; not anymore. That's a market up towards $100bn in value that Russia has to replace somehow (starting some time this year), or make drastic cuts in the domestic budget.

 

[Akka]

List of countries by GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I used 2022 IMF numbers.

IMF numbers seems pretty whacky, just look at Iran.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

^ Always use real GDP when comparing economic performance between nations; nominel GDP does not adjust for inflation and thus can give you misguided data about the real performance of the economy.

Top 15 real GDP 2022

Europe was by far Russia's largest customer with regards to gas and oil; not anymore. That's a market up towards $100bn in value that Russia has to replace somehow (starting some time this year), or make drastic cuts in the domestic budget.

It is amazing how South Korea has gone up (or Spain down). I remember a similar discussion almost 20 years ago in these forums (maybe it was at Apolyton) and Spain was still slightly ahead of SK.

 

[REDY]

Its hard to see anything other than a complete capitulation of Russia now (unless you are @innonimatu – in which case its been an inevitable Russian victory straight from the outset and Ukraine should accept Russian demands in order to preserve life).

Although Ukraine might not have the numbers of tanks they requested (they requested 300 and have got just over 1/3rd of that). They are technically superior and if deployed correctly will blunt any spring offensive Putin might have been pinning his hopes on. They might not be able to go on and retake all the land Russia has stolen. But I don’t think they really need to. All they need to do is exert a much pressure as possible and kill off any Russian attacks. Then the inevitable war fatigue, huge loss of life etc will be too much to bear.

Hopefully Putin dies before that. And the war is ended out of necessity due to the power vacuum that is bound to follow.

They should got that 300 as they requested. West is still more afraid of Russian defeat than from Ukrainian one.
Western tanks are also somewhat burden, because every loss of western tank should be sensitive in western public. This is quite limiting for their usage.
Dunno why Russians continue in war, they have to think that the time works for them.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

100 is not joke but anyway it is only the beginning. Ukraine will get more in future packages no doubt as there are plenty.

Even the very Spanish government who said six months ago the stored A4s were in terrible shape and such have just found the tanks are just fine in reality (surprise, surprise) and will send them asap. Lying and making ridiculous of themselves, as expected. They are even better than the Russians on that.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Not necessarily lying, it may have taken them six months to repair them.