[RD] Russia invades Ukraine V: The Turning Tide

[Ziggy Stardust]

No you!

By jove! The wit!

 

[Bamspeedy]

Difference being that if WaPo reports are correct, there must be hundreds of videos from Moscow, similar to what I posted above.
Because Moscow alone is by population about half of Ukraine, remaining under government control.
I've seen or witnessed none of such things.

Moscow would be the last place they would do forced conscription from in any meaningful numbers. First they have to draw from the minorities in other parts of Russia and from the occupied areas. Those are the most 'expendable' (in the mindset of Putin and the elites in Moscow).

EXCLUSIVE: Escaping forced conscription in Russian-occupied Donetsk

Editor’s Note: The names of the people interviewed by the Kyiv Independent for this story have been changed to protect their identity as they have shared sensitive information that could place them and their families in danger. Stepan didn’t see daylight for nearly four months. Since...

kyivindependent.com

 

[saamohod]

If this were to be true, I would be sad.
I do not want to be sad.
So it must be Ukrainian propaganda!

Russia doesn't kill civilians, doesn't deport civilians, didn't invade Ukraine, never bombed a theater in Mariupol or executed civilians in Bucha;
Ukraine killed it's own civilians, deported it's civilians to Russia, made Russia invade Ukraine, bombed it's own theater, and executed their civilians in Bucha.

Russians are outraged.

Add "Russia didn't shoot down MH14" for a good measure.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Moscow would be the last place they would do forced conscription from in any meaningful numbers. First they have to draw from the minorities in other parts of Russia and from the occupied areas. Those are the most 'expendable' (in the mindset of Putin and the elites in Moscow).

EXCLUSIVE: Escaping forced conscription in Russian-occupied Donetsk

Editor’s Note: The names of the people interviewed by the Kyiv Independent for this story have been changed to protect their identity as they have shared sensitive information that could place them and their families in danger. Stepan didn’t see daylight for nearly four months. Since...

kyivindependent.com

Also convicted criminals.

But I see you didn't post an ambigious 1 minute youtube from which to extrapolate the condition in a whole country like good journalists do.

 

[red_elk]

First they have to draw from the minorities in other parts of Russia and from the occupied areas.

Any evidence that "minorities" (whoever they are) were disproportionally affected in September mobilization?

 

[Birdjaguar]

Perun – anAussie who can count, and is worth a listen re. Ukraine, what might and might not be expected, or possible. Long, but worth a listen:

One of the best videos I've seen. It provides an excellent analysis of the economics of the war and the impact of aid. Starting at about 50:00 minurtes in, the issue of Russian escalation is discussed. that alone is worth one's time. Great post; thanks.

 

[Sarin]

Any evidence that "minorities" (whoever they are) were disproportionally affected in September mobilization?

Russia Is Sending Its Ethnic Minorities to the Meat Grinder

Chaotic mobilization sparks renewed fears that the pain will not be shared evenly across Russia.

foreignpolicy.com

Russia’s ethnic minorities lament the war in Ukraine

Ethnic minority troops are said to be dying in greater numbers than their Slav compatriots in the so-called ‘special mil

www.aljazeera.com

‘Putin is using ethnic minorities to fight in Ukraine’

Russian minorities are much more likely to die in Ukraine, the Free Buryatia Foundation tells Al Jazeera.

www.aljazeera.com

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-mobilization-ethnic-minorities-buryat-1.6605501

And so on...

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Forced conscription in occupied territories constitutes a war crime according to the Geneva Conventions. It also violates the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court.

According to human rights activists, Russia has forcibly mobilized up to 100,000 residents of the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Many of them have already been killed.

According to the Eastern Human Rights Group, the number of those killed is north of a quarter of those mobilized.

"Forced conscription is sending people to die," Gunduz Mamedov, former deputy prosecutor general, and expert on international humanitarian law, told the Kyiv Independent.

“In Ukraine, forced conscription can lead to up to 12 years in prison (for people involved in the conscription), and if this leads to the person being killed, it is a life sentence (for the perpetrator)," Mamedov said.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

‘They hunt us like stray cats’: pro-Russia separatists step up forced conscription as losses mount

Footage emerges of Ukrainian citizens in occupied Donbas being press-ganged to fight for Moscow

www.theguardian.com

Pro-Russia separatist forces have stepped up the forced conscription of men – including Ukrainian passport holders – in occupied areas of the Donbas region, amid mounting evidence of the scale of losses on the Russian side.

According to credible evidence from the region, forced conscription – already a feature of the Russian-backed separatists’ rule before the Kremlin’s invasion on 24 February – appeared to have picked up again in June, with checkpoints and patrols, some reportedly involving Chechen fighters allied to the Kremlin, on the lookout for men to recruit.


In one video filmed in late June, a woman in Makeevka, in the Donbas region, documented her efforts to prevent officials from the war commissariat from dragging her husband into a car to take him to the conscription office.


In a heated exchange, in which the woman cannot be seen, she at first confronts two officials – one a heavy-set man with a gun and a black T-shirt with a “new Russia” flag, and the second man holding documents including her husband’s passport.

This one (from 6 months ago!) has a youtube

 

[Zardnaar]

Ignore propaganda neither side has done much over winter. Lines are static.

See if the rumored Russian offensive pans out or if new western aid pans out.

 

[red_elk]

Russia Is Sending Its Ethnic Minorities to the Meat Grinder

Chaotic mobilization sparks renewed fears that the pain will not be shared evenly across Russia.

foreignpolicy.com

Russia’s ethnic minorities lament the war in Ukraine

Ethnic minority troops are said to be dying in greater numbers than their Slav compatriots in the so-called ‘special mil

www.aljazeera.com

‘Putin is using ethnic minorities to fight in Ukraine’

Russian minorities are much more likely to die in Ukraine, the Free Buryatia Foundation tells Al Jazeera.

www.aljazeera.com

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-mobilization-ethnic-minorities-buryat-1.6605501

And so on...

All four links refer to "Free Buryatia Foundation", a US-based advocacy group founded in March 2022.
The source of their estimations is "open-source intelligence", as they admit.

 

[Sarin]

All four links refer to "Free Buryatia Foundation", a US-based advocacy group founded in March 2022.
The source of their estimations is "open-source intelligence", as they admit.

Again. You don't like the source, so it has to be fake. While Russian government sources are, fo course, totally truthful.

Let's have a look at more scientific approach: https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/s43yf/download

 

[red_elk]

Again. You don't like the source, so it has to be fake. While Russian government sources are, fo course, totally truthful.

I don't say it's necessarily fake, I question the source's impartiality and methodology

Let's have a look at more scientific approach: https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/s43yf/download

Indeed, let's have a look at it. Specifically, the conclusion.

Generally, the pattern is that the fatality rates are higher in economically deprived regions, some of which are ethnic republics. It is unlikely that the ethnic gaps in mortality are driven mostly by the conscious policies of ethnic profiling and discrimination. Regional socio-economic inequalities affecting the rates of recruitment in the military appear to be a more important factor. It is not a specifically Russian phenomenon that careers in the military are more attractive for young men in poorer areas with fewer civilian opportunities. Kriner and Shen (2010) provide evidence of the casualty gaps in the US military in the WWII and the wars in Korea, Vietnam and Iraq. Maynard (2009) estimate the correlation coefficients between mortality rates and per capita income at the US state level for the wars in Vietnam (r = 0.51) and Iraq (r = 0.52). The correlation coefficients are very similar to the one estimated with the Russian data in this study (r = 0.48).

Doesn't seem to confirm the point "Russian government considers ethnic minorities expendable"

 

[saamohod]

Again. You don't like the source, so it has to be fake. While Russian government sources are, fo course, totally truthful.

Let's have a look at more scientific approach: https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/s43yf/download

.
.
.84 St.Petersburg RU-SPE 79 4.6 [3.7; 5.8]

.85 Moscow RU-MOW 54 1.3 [1.0; 1.7]

The end of the row is highly predictable.

 

[Lexicus]

I question the source's impartiality and methodology

The source looks pretty impartial to me judging by that conclusion.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

I remember someone posting 3 very impartial youtubes as a source. Impeccable methodology there.

 

[red_elk]

The source looks pretty impartial to me judging by that conclusion.

The article may be impartial. I was questioning the unbiasedness of a US-based political organization, which was a different source.

If we trust the article, Buryatia was indeed disproportionally affected, but not because it's an ethnic minority region.
From the table, some ethnic Russian regions were affected far more than ethnic minority ones.
For example, almost an order of magnitude higher mortality in ethnic Russian regions if we compare Kostroma (66.8), Pskov (61.5) with Khanty-Mansi (6.7) and Yamalo-Nenets (7.1).
Most likely because Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets regions are in top three by GDP/capita. While Kostroma and Pskov are 62-th and 67-th respectively.

 

[REDY]

Its possible that different regions are targeted because poorness. But it is the fact, we have data from orgs who track casualties, that loot and phone tracking etc...
Regards your point, according wiki Russian ethnicity population growths there (now about 70% both in Khanty and Nenets) while natives are under 10%.
In Buryatia, its above 33%.

 

[red_elk]

Its possible that different regions are targeted because poorness. But it is the fact, we have data from orgs who track casualties, that loot and phone tracking etc...
Regards your point, according wiki Russian ethnicity population growths there (now about 70% both in Khanty and Nenets) while natives are under 10%.
In Buryatia, its above 33%.

They are not "targeted" - as the article explains, people from these regions are more likely to join military. Because of lack of other opportunities and social lifts.

In all three regions there are 60%-70% Russians, differences are insignificant. Pskov and Kostroma 95%-97% ethnic Russians.
In Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets okrugs, rich ones, there are a bit more non-native minorities, such as Tatars, Bashkirs, Ukrainians, etc.
Rich regions attract workers from abroad.

 

[FriendlyFire]

and yes, what is "winning" anyway ?

Russian self fullfilling prophecy of a hostile expanded NATO, a New Arms race, and militerized Europe
Finding out that China would rather have access to Western markets rather then supply Russia with weapons is Gold