[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: War News Thread: Round 6

[EvaDK]

Last year, as European nations disrupted their own gas imports from Russia as a reaction on Russia's invasion, plenty of Russians argued that it would be impossible; Europe was dependent on Russia and Europeans would freeze to death by the thousands without Russia. We all remember this.

Well, Europe is now pretty much independent of Russian gas - and oil + refined oil products - and no one froze to death and gas + oil prices are at agreeable levels again. It seems our global energy demand/supply system in our corner of the World, can do fine without Russian input.

So, pardon me for putting all predictions about Europe's energy supply from our Russian posters here, on 'ignore'.

 

[red_elk]

It seems our global energy demand/supply system in our corner of the World, can do fine without Russian input.

Judging by the polls, less and less EU citizens consider the picture as rosy as you described

 

[saamohod]

Unlike brave Ukrainian armchair warriors.

If you're hinting at my person, I left my armchair and everything else at home when I escaped from Russian occupation. For this reason, I and millions of Ukrainians will refuse any negotiations before the enemy leaves our homes.

 

[Gedemon]

Judging by the polls, less and less EU citizens consider the picture as rosy as you described

energy prices started to rise in 2021, it's unrelated to sanctions (or it is, but as a part of an economic war Putin started before invading Ukraine)

 

[EvaDK]

I actually take comfort in seeing that Europeans are allowed to speak their open minds about the war and whether they support Western efforts or not, with no consequence or fear.

In Russia, the same people risk being arrested and charged for speaking against the war or/and Russia's armed forces and ultimately be given a prison sentence.

Thank you for reminding us, that we have freedom of speech where we live.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Did I sign the petition which condemns "Russian aggression"?

You have never and will never condemn Russian aggression.

 

[uppi]

It is interesting that the Russian side has been pushing for negotiations so hard in recent months.

They don't really have pushed negotiations. What they tried to push was Ukrainian capitulation. I have not heard of a single concession Russia offered that could be the starting point for negotiations.

The most dangerous Russian weapon right now would be a "reasonable" peace offer. Something along the lines of: Russia returns some of the land it stole in return for keeping some other land it stole, renounces claims on territory it does not even occupy and the rest of Ukraine is free to join any organization it wants.

This would be something for the right-wing/autocratic/Nazi friends of Russia in the West to latch on to when trying to undermine support for Ukraine. It might make the Ukrainian government look unreasonable when refusing to talk about it. And might undermine Ukrainian morale when they consider whether it is worth to die while trying to take everything back (and maybe fail) when they could get some of it back peacefully.

It would not even have to be real to be effective, some muttering of Russian officials might be enough. But instead they are dreaming of the Endsieg where they conquer East Germany and more.

 

[Akka]

You have never and will never condemn Russian aggression.

He will certainly condemn undue Russian aggression !
It's just that Russia never attacks anyone. Because Russia only defends itself against the existential threat of having people around it not being under its power.

 

[EvaDK]

It would not even have to be real to be effective, some muttering of Russian officials might be enough. But instead they are dreaming of the Endsieg where they conquer East Germany and more.

Russian forces have managed to take ~500 km2 in these lasts 4 months of war, which is roughly comparable to ~2% of the size of Donetsk Oblast territory. I think we can safely call off the scenario, in which Russia has any combat effectiveness to make land sweeping conquests. The Russian army has revealed itself to be a third rate fighting force, primarily armed with Cold War era obsolete junk.

There was a satirical cartoon yesterday in one of our newspapers, placing huge Russian casualties in context with the death cult mentality surrounding Putin; it shows Putin standing in a sad graveyard of closely aligned bare wooden crosses, marking the graves of fallen Russian soldiers, proclaiming: 'The objective with the 'special mission' to unite the Russian people has been reached.'

 

[9gkj548hkm20vk79dj689bnj4]

Three torpedo strikes ?
Far cheaper, easier and less debris just to use divers and plant timed explosives.
Rather then you know Russian submarine, kursking itself or running aground, or smoking accident as one dose.

Maybe. But the article suggests the implausibility of destroying three sections of pipe (one section 6km away from the first, the other 80km) by one group of divers because it would've taken too long, maybe a couple of hours average for each run. Or, they're really really good swimmers with tech we don't know about.
I would suggest a submarine which at least moved from one site to the next, but how an explosive was delivered from there I could only guess.

(don't know if this is "war news" or not so I won't guess too much)

 

[El_Machinae]

Last year, as European nations disrupted their own gas imports from Russia as a reaction on Russia's invasion, plenty of Russians argued that it would be impossible; Europe was dependent on Russia and Europeans would freeze to death by the thousands without Russia. We all remember this.

Well, Europe is now pretty much independent of Russian gas - and oil + refined oil products - and no one froze to death and gas + oil prices are at agreeable levels again. It seems our global energy demand/supply system in our corner of the World, can do fine without Russian input.

So, pardon me for putting all predictions about Europe's energy supply from our Russian posters here, on 'ignore'.

These are one of those things where the predictions actually caused a sufficient response. It's also why finance is so difficult. If an authority makes a claim, people rush into the counter-bet to blunt it.
A very high price was paid to wean from Russian fuel very quickly, but it was mostly tolerable because it was paid for with capital.
We will see if the downstream starvation is as bad as predicted. The people taking responsive measures there have fewer assets to leverage.

 

[Birdjaguar]

From WSJ this morning:

McConnell Says Top Republicans Strongly Back Kyiv Aid
BY LINDSAY WISE

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said top Republicans are committed to providing money and weapons to Ukraine as the country enters its second year of war with Russia, dismissing what he says are isolated voices of opposition within the party. “Reports about the death of Republican support for strong American leadership in the world have been greatly exaggerated,” the Kentucky lawmaker said in a speech to the Munich Security Conference. “My party’s leaders overwhelmingly support a strong, involved America and a robust trans-Atlantic alliance,” he said. “Don’t look at Twitter, look at people in power. Look at me and Speaker Kevin McCarthy.”

Congress has authorized $113 billion in military and economic aid for Ukraine since Russia invaded the country on Feb. 24, 2022. But future aid packages must pass a newly divided Congress, with House Republicans in particular under increasing pressure from the isolationist wing of their party to oppose further funding. The war is currently deadlocked. Russia is dialing up pressure along the front lines in the east but Ukraine is holding firm, waiting for the arrival of new Western weapons. Mr. McConnell said in an interview before the Munich trip that he is concerned that media coverage overstates GOP opposition to Ukraine aid, elevating the voices of a minority who don’t hold influential chairmanships or leadership positions. Mr. McConnell stressed that the U.S. is conducting careful oversight of the aid distributed so far, and that he has urged Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials to give priority to anticorruption efforts and to reach out to skeptical Republican lawmakers, think tanks and media organizations. Meanwhile, top oversight officials said they would press to deploy auditors into the war zone to beef up monitoring.

Mr. McConnell and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) traveled to Munich with large delegations of pro-Ukrainian senators from both parties in tow, aiming to demonstrate to European allies and Ukraine that broad bipartisan majorities in Congress back the Ukrainian war effort. Mr. Schumer, in his own speech in Munich, thanked Republican colleagues who have backed aid, singling out “my friend Mitch McConnell” for special recognition. Mr. McCarthy didn’t respond to requests to comment. He has said House Republicans won’t write Ukraine a blank check.

Neither Mr. McCarthy nor House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D., N.Y.) is attending the Munich conference. A recent Associated Press-NORC poll showed 48% of American adults are in favor of providing weapons to Ukraine, down from 60% in May. Among Republicans, support for sending weapons to Ukraine has weakened to 39% from 53% during the same time frame. Sen. Josh Hawley (R., Mo.), an opponent of Ukraine aid, said: “Our voters don’t want to write blank checks to Ukraine.” “I think we’ve got to make a choice between deterring China in Asia and writing blank checks to Ukraine. We just can’t do both, and I think it’s fanciful to think we can do both.”

 

[red_elk]

Baerbock says Putin must change policy by 360 degrees, in order for Ukraine to be saved
I wonder what would that mean in practical terms?

 

[Sarin]

Baerbock says Putin must change policy by 360 degrees, in order for Ukraine to be saved
I wonder what would that mean in practical terms?

It means Putin sent Russia into self-destructive spiral. Just keep going, tighter and tighter until it falls apart.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Who is Baerbock?

 

[Farm Boy]

Baerbock says Putin must change policy by 360 degrees, in order for Ukraine to be saved
I wonder what would that mean in practical terms?

It would seem that assessment is the primary exporter of evil in the world remains unchanged for the foreseeable?

 

[Civinator]

Who is Baerbock?

She is the German foreign minister. She is green and a greenhorn, too.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

US tries to woo India away from Russia with display of F-35 jets, bombers

The United States brought its most advanced fighter jet, the F-35, to India for the first time this week alongside F-16s, Super Hornets and B-1B bombers as

english.alarabiya.net

Another colateral damage of the Ukrainian war, after UAE decided to step away from the Su-75 checkmate program a couple of months ago and buy western instead. Now India and USA are flirting about the F-35. This would leave the Su-75 deader than fried chicken. Not any lose to aeronautics, for the last decades Russian new aircraft have been nothing but parodies of any new design developed by USA. Expect more countries running away of Russian made weapons and aircraft due to sanctions and to the abysmal performance in Ukraine.
This comes after Air India made the biggest purchase in the history of commercial flight after ordering about 500 airliners from Airbus and Boeing some days ago. It seems India is distancing itself of the losing side.

 

[9gkj548hkm20vk79dj689bnj4]

The F35 looks fat and dorky

 

[Joij21]

A recent Associated Press-NORC poll showed 48% of American adults are in favor of providing weapons to Ukraine, down from 60% in May. Among Republicans, support for sending weapons to Ukraine has weakened to 39% from 53% during the same time frame.

Only 48%?