[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: War News Thread: Round 6

[Lexicus]

I glanced at the article (on bbc russian) and it said he broke the law. So what is there to comment on.

How evil the law is? How foolish it is?
Even from the Russian nationalist point of view, shutting down criticism of the conduct of the war is the surest way to lose. You cannot improve your war effort if no one can point out its problems.

And fwiw I've made the same criticisms of authoritarian actions by Ukraine's government in this regard. They are not only wrong, they make it harder to win.

 

[Kyriakos]

A few million with some amount of semi trained.

10 million is pretty much every male of military age.

They can't ewuip that many anyway. They only refurbish 29 odd tanks a month for example.

Similar shortages exist for everything else.

Population of Russia is over 140 million, half of that male. It is highly unlikely that only 1/7 (of 70 million) are males of age able to serve in the army.
If they'd have to mobilize thus, it would obviously be predated by a full war-economy (=equip soldiers etc).

 

[red_elk]

They are not doing a very good job are they, waste of money imho

"Leopard" tank blown up in Russian video turns out to be Ukrainian tractor

Footage circulated by Russian state-owned media was widely mocked by Western OSINT investigators and pro-Kremlin military bloggers alike.

www.newsweek.com

Few more tractors appeared since then.

 

[Lexicus]

Western media reaction to the dam incident is unusually cautious - major outlets don't outright blame Russia, which is frankly speaking, surprising to me.

Binkov's video highlights some aspects which haven't been discussed here. Crimea water supply may be not a critical issue for now, but Russia's defense along Dnepr river may be severely compromised, depending on the extent of damage to the dam. Also, the dam is located on the frontline and even if sabotage version is correct, this doesn't exclude possibility of Ukrainian involvement.

If Ukraine blew up the dam it's still Russia's fault for starting the war, much like everything the Soviet Union did to fight Germany was Germany's fault for starting the war

 

[AmazonQueen]

Population of Russia is over 140 million, half of that male. It is highly unlikely that only 1/7 (of 70 million) are males of age able to serve in the army.
If they'd have to mobilize thus, it would obviously be predated by a full war-economy (=equip soldiers etc).

Looking at this https://www.statista.com/statistics/1005416/population-russia-gender-age-group/ roughly 20 million men are aged 15-34 but not all will be fit for military service and quite a few will be in occupations that are essential

 

[Civinator]

I'm sure that the Wagner Group is accepting Greek recruits though. No prison history required.

Only for clearification: Kyriakos is indispensable. He has to create beautiful graphics for Civ 3 and to add the missing city walls to all his medieval cities.

 

[Kyriakos]

Looking at this https://www.statista.com/statistics/1005416/population-russia-gender-age-group/ roughly 20 million men are aged 15-34 but not all will be fit for military service and quite a few will be in occupations that are essential

Sounds very reasonable. I wouldn't expect a mobilization of closer to 20 million (unless we are talking absolute world war 1940-42 style). But even half of that would drown added nato (non superpower) armies in Ukraine; 10 million soldiers is literally an average euro country's entire population.

 

[red_elk]

If Ukraine blew up the dam it's still Russia's fault for starting the war, much like everything the Soviet Union did to fight Germany was Germany's fault for starting the war

That's debatable, but at least honest position.

 

[Kyriakos]

Only for clearification: Kyriakos is indispensable. He has to create beautiful graphics for Civ 3 and to add the missing city walls to all his medieval cities.

Don't mind the obnoxious trolling. And thanks

 

[AmazonQueen]

Sounds very reasonable. I wouldn't expect a mobilization of closer to 20 million (unless we are talking absolute world war 1940-42 style). But even half of that would drown added nato (non superpower) armies in Ukraine; 10 million soldiers is literally an average euro country's entire population.

EU population in 2020 over 440 million. So no.

 

[emzie]

That's debatable, but at least honest position.

If you're fighting for your life, you do what you gotta do.

 

[Kyriakos]

EU population in 2020 over 440 million. So no.

The 'eu population' won't go to war in Ukraine. The russian one might well do if other armies join against Russia.

 

[AmazonQueen]

The 'eu population' won't go to war in Ukraine. The russian one might well do if other armies join against Russia.

560 million population in NATO countries.

 

[Zardnaar]

Population of Russia is over 140 million, half of that male. It is highly unlikely that only 1/7 (of 70 million) are males of age able to serve in the army.
If they'd have to mobilize thus, it would obviously be predated by a full war-economy (=equip soldiers etc).

Russia has a messed up population pyramid.

Basically it's older and female outnumber males.
Notice I've been saying for a while Russia has lost this war already?

That's part of it the economic situation they're in will essentially destroy them combined with their demographics.

Even if Ukraine surrendered tomorrow.

The demographic thing isn't unique to Russia but its one of the worse in the world with a so so economy pre sanctions to deal with it.

Only two "western" counties gave a vaguely healthy population pyramid. USA and NZ.

Others have hope via immigration (Australia, Canada).

Due to people fleeing Russia they already gave skill shortages. That's only going to get worse.

 

[red_elk]

Only for clearification: Kyriakos is indispensable. He has to create beautiful graphics for Civ 3 and to add the missing city walls to all his medieval cities.

Kyriakos may help Russia with designing fortifications for different *pol cities in Black Sea coast.

 

[Gedemon]

Sounds very reasonable. I wouldn't expect a mobilization of closer to 20 million (unless we are talking absolute world war 1940-42 style). But even half of that would drown added nato (non superpower) armies in Ukraine; 10 million soldiers is literally an average euro country's entire population

Ukraine can mobilize 1/3 of what Russia can last time I checked.

 

[Akka]

560 million population in NATO countries.

Actually, NATO countries count about 950 million people. You were probably only counting European NATO countries.

 

[Lexicus]

Sounds very reasonable. I wouldn't expect a mobilization of closer to 20 million (unless we are talking absolute world war 1940-42 style). But even half of that would drown added nato (non superpower) armies in Ukraine; 10 million soldiers is literally an average euro country's entire population.

Manpower alone means little. The paper strength of an army can easily melt away in the fire of real battle; a small force of trained soldiers can easily defeat a larger force that is untrained and undisciplined, especially in contemporary war where armies are massively complex systems that must get many, many things right to work properly.

Now, before anyone takes me out of context: this does not mean weight/numbers don't matter. They do. But "a disorderly mob is no more an army than a heap of building materials is a house."

 

[red_elk]

Ukraine can mobilize 1/3 of what Russia can last time I checked.

It won't achieve 1/3 even if it will somehow mobilize in Russia-controlled territories.

 

[civac]

The number of people each country can in theory mobilize is irrelevant. Noone can equip that kind of numbers except a the most primitive of light infantry units in militia/territorial defense roles with some little utility on defense but none whatsoever for offensive actions.