[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: War News Thread: Round 6

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The number of people each country can in theory mobilize is irrelevant. Noone can equip that kind of numbers except a the most primitive of light infantry units in militia/territorial defense roles with some little utility on defense but none whatsoever for offensive actions.

It's not WW2 any more. Both sides don't really have the manufacturing capacity but Ukraine has the advantage I suppose since they don't need to manufacture as much.
 
This is an OSINT map of Russian fortifications visible by satellite, and a close up of fortifications along the the southern front. Without the reservoir and without the left bank fortifications, the rest of occupied Kherson looks extremely vulnerable. Cutting off Crimea by land and bringing the Kerch bridge into HIMARS range may be possible.
 

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Western media reaction to the dam incident is unusually cautious - major outlets don't outright blame Russia, which is frankly speaking, surprising to me.

I expect it won't be especially surprising to people who have a good grasp of what journalistic standards in the west entail. (Not specifically a dig at non-westerners - most westerners don't have a good grasp of what their own media's standards are.)
 
Population of Russia is over 140 million, half of that male. It is highly unlikely that only 1/7 (of 70 million) are males of age able to serve in the army.
If they'd have to mobilize thus, it would obviously be predated by a full war-economy (=equip soldiers etc).

Military Age is generally 18-30
But both Russian and Ukraine using males aged 18-49
I would also take recent Russian population census figures with some skepticism, as they are likely to be somewhat massaged
There is no denying Russia has a lot more manpower to draw on

Females age 18-49 29.06 million
Ranked 4th.

Males age 18-49 21.05 million
Ranked 6th.
 
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The Russian state will run out of money long time before it will run out of people to sacrifice for Putin's cause. The Russian state budget reached its estimated all year deficit of $43bn, 3-4 months into 2023 after which Putin ordered his government to no longer release the figures to the public, as well as to find or 'invent' new revenue to balance the books. Don't know about you, but I don't think the IMF, World Bank or any other international player will bail out Russia this time, as they usually have when the Duma runs the economy or monetary policy into a ravine, since the fall of the USSR.
 
Are there other pieces of infrastructure that are contested? If another dam were to fail, I would assume it was caused by the side that controlled it.
Some days ago there was a report (I cannot find the link any longer), that Russia is preparing another water obstacle near the city of Tokmak.
 
The Russian state will run out of money long time before it will run out of people to sacrifice for Putin's cause. The Russian state budget reached its estimated all year deficit of $43bn, 3-4 months into 2023 after which Putin ordered his government to no longer release the figures to the public, as well as to find or 'invent' new revenue to balance the books. Don't know about you, but I don't think the IMF, World Bank or any other international player will bail out Russia this time, as they usually have when the Duma runs the economy or monetary policy into a ravine, since the fall of the USSR.

Russia can run deficits for probably another few years. Russia has some options to try and keep going like taxes, cut spending, selling state assets (to china, who else would be dumb enough to buy)
But as a general rule, weaker economy's implode under less debt since they are unable to service them or have the assets to back up such loans
 
Seems to be a fairly standard tactical manoeuvre, the hidden anti-tank gun is forced to reveal its location and is silenced by return fire, most of the men are able to retreat and artillery can now deal with the known defensive position.

Obviously material will have to replaced or recovered, that is to be expected.
 
Russia can run deficits for probably another few years. Russia has some options to try and keep going like taxes, cut spending, selling state assets (to china, who else would be dumb enough to buy)
But as a general rule, weaker economy's implode under less debt since they are unable to service them or have the assets to back up such loans

There's the print money option as well.

6-18 months was my prediction for she's all over one way or another.
 
With Russia barred from borrowing via the international markets due to sanctions, it has to issue debt domestically for Russian banks to buy. This is a closed circuit that will put growing excessive strain on the Russian banks and when they first ones go under, it can take the whole system with it; like dominos falling. I'm not inclined to think that Uncle Xi's generosity towards Putin, extends to financing Putin's disastrous war with loans that China is likely to never see repaid. Especially not with the Chinese economy and housing market in crisis mode at the moment.
 
An unintended consequence of using modern "western" tanks like LeopardII, is that at least it (ie what was obvious, but somehow not factored in the ridicule of russian tanks) is established that it wasn't some primitive tech in analogous russian modern tanks that got them destroyed; just that this happens in war.
Not sad to see the bradleys be cooked, though - they just aren't imposing at all ^^
LeoII form the basis of many nato tank armies.
 
The Russians lost a tad more then just this one Leo when they were on the offensive, in fact, they keep posting pictures of the same tank, which leads me to suspect there might not be a lot to brag about 😉
 
It's just not worth bragging about killing tanks, is my point ^^ It's the analogous charge of the light brigade and they will be destroyed regardless if russian or german/usian/english/etc.
 
Cannons to the left of them, cannons to the right of them, cannons right in front of them? That one?
 
It's just not worth bragging about killing tanks, is my point ^^ It's the analogous charge of the light brigade and they will be destroyed regardless if russian or german/usian/english/etc.


Are you sure about that? British Intel is usually very conservative, so when they say Ukraine made progress, it's quite significant.
 
"Up to 1,400 metres", even not focusing on the "up to" (even zero meters is up to that), is still the distance you walk to in ten minutes. But my point was not about advancing, but killed tanks (it is to be expected, regardless if they are russian or german/american). Any advancing is certainly good for the side doing it :)
By the way, it would make a lot more sense if Reuters referred to area covered, in metres^2. 1,400 metres "at a number of sections" can easily mean next to nothing, but in many parts of the front. For reference, iirc the bit of Bahmut held by Ukraine before it was announced the city was taken, was in the order of less than 1000 metres^2.
 
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