Russia's Geopolitical Future

[Camikaze]

While I see no problem in good relations with Russia, we're treading on really difficult grounds there. NATO and the relations to the US shouldn't be ignored too much (they're in a sorry state since Schröder imo), and maybe even more importantly, we have to be considerate of Poland. They're Germany's most important neighbor country after France and will only become more important in the future with their economic growth. And I can understand that any German-Russian cooperation gets them into alert condition.

I don't think it's that difficult ground to tread. Russia would want co-operation with Germany, and Germany would want co-operation with Russia. Germany has that co-operative spirit backed up by the EU, so Poland should not really get all that concerned over it. It's not like good relations with one precludes it with the other, even if they aren't besties.

 

[wolfigor]

Russia should use its current advantages - natural resources, well-educated people, leadership in some hi-tech sectors, to modernize its economy and infrastructure.

These advantages can be a base to build upon, however Russia needs to work hard to turn the potentiality into actual "power".
At the time being Russian economy is only about exporting raw material.
Russia is a net importer of pretty much everything, and its payment balance would be horribly negative if it wasn't for high prices of natural resources (especially oil).

Commodities usually have rather volatile prices and exporting countries, like Russia, should re-invest the gains from hi-price years into economic infrastructures to guarantee revenues when the commodity prices are low.
I don't really see Russia doing it, I mostly see oligarchs "pocketing" money at the expenses of the country.

Well-educated people is also another resource for Russia, but it's not something that last forever without investment.
To my understanding Russian education system is getting worst and worst, with relatively little money invested into it.
There are still some good centers of excellence, but country-wide the system is crumbling down.

All of this reflects very badly on the perspectives for Russian economy in the future.

Russia has the potential to be a great power in the future, but I don't see any concrete sign that the basic problems preventing her to do so get solved.

 

[Yeekim]

But why? No matter how many Chinese there are in Siberia Russia will call the shots there. And if it becomes a problem, Russia will just restrict immigration. I honestly don't see that it will become a big problem, but I suppose I could be wrong.

The Chinese may not become the biggest problem for Moscow in Siberia and Far East...
Currently, Siberia reminds a bit of former Southern Sudan - exploited for its natural resources and getting little in return. Well, at least there is no religious conflict.
http://www.themoscownews.com/russia/20110411/188575092.html

 

[Lone Wolf]

Russian Siberian regionalism is no threat to Russia, in the foreseeable future, at least. It's less prominent then the regionalism of the USA, and I don't think that the States are going to be fractured anytime soon.

The schizophrenic dull - too dull - internal politics of Russia is the biggest threat to its current geopolitical future, also.

 

[red_elk]

These advantages can be a base to build upon, however Russia needs to work hard to turn the potentiality into actual "power".
At the time being Russian economy is only about exporting raw material.
Russia is a net importer of pretty much everything, and its payment balance would be horribly negative if it wasn't for high prices of natural resources (especially oil).

Commodities usually have rather volatile prices and exporting countries, like Russia, should re-invest the gains from hi-price years into economic infrastructures to guarantee revenues when the commodity prices are low.
I don't really see Russia doing it, I mostly see oligarchs "pocketing" money at the expenses of the country.

Well-educated people is also another resource for Russia, but it's not something that last forever without investment.
To my understanding Russian education system is getting worst and worst, with relatively little money invested into it.
There are still some good centers of excellence, but country-wide the system is crumbling down.

All of this reflects very badly on the perspectives for Russian economy in the future.

Russia has the potential to be a great power in the future, but I don't see any concrete sign that the basic problems preventing her to do so get solved.

In general, agree.
That's why I wrote "should use" instead of "is using".
There are some attempts of rebuilding infrastructure, investments in hi-tech projects - GLONASS, quick military modernization, some investments in space and defense industry. All these are most likely not enough, but still something is being done in that field.

We need to recover from that post-Soviet disaster as soon as possible. Education, industry and healthcare are still in very bad condition.

 

[Veles]

The amount of feck foreigners give about Russia is always surprising, given how unimportant and irrelevant they think it is now.

Perhaps it shows that economy and military strength isn't everything that matters about a country.

Seriously, such interest in a foreign country far far away is quite an admirable thing. Perhaps one day we'll finally all get along for good.

 

[Patroklos]

In that case you really only consider one country a great power. Russia has military and political powers far, far above almost every nation on Earth. Almost no one has as powerful a military. Only one other country has anything like the destructive power Russia has. Only one other country has a strategic bomber force. Only one other country is a bigger arms supplier. No other country has the energy reserves. Almost no other countries can rely on their own armaments production as Russia can. No other non-NATO countries have as many allies as Russia. Only one other country gets more immigrants than Russia. Unlike almost every other western country, Russia is not predicted to go into a sharp relative economic decline in the next few decades. Almost no other country can put obstacles in the way of the west as Russia can, and when they do the west has to bargain instead of bully. Only one other country has greater leverage inside the EU, no one has greater influence in central Asia, no one has greater influence over Iran...

The point is that all of that is meaningless to anything not concering Russia's own (much diminished) neighborhood. Russia is literally an after thought an most events of worldwide signifigance, while France, Japan, UK and the like are at the forefront of most things.

Russia has some big numbers in some categories, their problem is they are not in a situation to leverage them in anything but some very specific regional cases.

 

[RedRalph]

The point is that all of that is meaningless to anything not concering Russia's own (much diminished) neighborhood. Russia is literally an after thought an most events of worldwide signifigance, while France, Japan, UK and the like are at the forefront of most things.

Russia has some big numbers in some categories, their problem is they are not in a situation to leverage them in anything but some very specific regional cases.

Do you honestly believe Japan is more geopolitically significant than Russia?

 

[RedRalph]

The amount of feck foreigners give about Russia is always surprising, given how unimportant and irrelevant they think it is now.

Perhaps it shows that economy and military strength isn't everything that matters about a country.

Seriously, such interest in a foreign country far far away is quite an admirable thing. Perhaps one day we'll finally all get along for good.

Are you Irish or Russian?

 

[Veles]

Are you Irish or Russian?

The latter.

Deep down inside I may be an Irisher, though. Or could have been in some of the previous lives.

Why?

 

[Patroklos]

Do you honestly believe Japan is more geopolitically significant than Russia?

Undoubtedly. Japan is a corner stone of the world economy, Russia not so much. And we are talking REAL economy as well, not just some petty commodity seller which is makes up the vast majority of Russias already dimunitive role in the world economy.

If Japan were to blink out of existance today the world as we know it would collapse. If Russia were to blink out of existance today disruptions would occur but besides some modest oil/gas concens the world keeps turining.

Keep in mind that Russia is 10th in GDP, and thats only if we don't break out the EU nations individually as they should be so even that rank is overly generous.

We all know Russia has nukes, we all know they have a few thousand obsolete tanks in their inventory, we all know they have some petro dollars laying around. The real question is what can Russia actually accomplish and influence with it, and relative to the impressive numbers they show in the categories just mentioned the answer is not much.

The question wasn't about regional powers, but GREAT POWERS, and to me a increasingly backwards petro state with a demographic time bomb on its hands that is near impotent outside a few (I stress few) weak states directly on its borders does not count.

 

[Ajidica]

If Japan were to blink out of existance today the world as we know it would collapse. If Russia were to blink out of existance today disruptions would occur but besides some modest oil/gas concens the world keeps turining.

I would hestitate to call their oil/gas exports modest. Doesn't Germany (and Europe) get most of their oil/gas from Russia? I seem to remember some worries a couple years ago when Russia threatened to shut off the pipes during the winter. I know bad things happened in the Ukraine but I think they stopped short of cutting it off for Germany and the rest of Europe.

 

[RedRalph]

Undoubtedly. Japan is a corner stone of the world economy, Russia not so much. And we are talking REAL economy as well, not just some petty commodity seller which is makes up the vast majority of Russias already dimunitive role in the world economy.

No one would deny that Japan has a bigger economy, no

If Japan were to blink out of existance today the world as we know it would collapse. If Russia were to blink out of existance today disruptions would occur but besides some modest oil/gas concens the world keeps turining.

honestly... of everything I have ever seen you write here this single sentance shows how little you understand of the world. you do known Russia is the biggest energy producer on Earth don't you? This is just staggering in its ignorance.

Keep in mind that Russia is 10th in GDP, and thats only if we don't break out the EU nations individually as they should be so even that rank is overly generous.

Soon (in about 5 years' time) to overtake such other economic nonentities such as Brazil, the UK, France and Italy http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_future_GDP_(PPP)_estimates

We all know Russia has nukes, we all know they have a few thousand obsolete tanks in their inventory, we all know they have some petro dollars laying around. The real question is what can Russia actually accomplish and influence with it, and relative to the impressive numbers they show in the categories just mentioned the answer is not much.

The question wasn't about regional powers, but GREAT POWERS, and to me a increasingly backwards petro state with a demographic time bomb on its hands that is near impotent outside a few (I stress few) weak states directly on its borders does not count.

By no measure whatsoever does Russia have a demographic time bomb on its hands, but its funny you should mention that given the fact you are comparing JAPAN of all places with them...

Honestly Pat, you really don't have a breeze here. In most subjects you display a fairly decent knowledge, in some total superiority, in this mind-boggling ignorance. A few modest oil/gas concerns...

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[Patroklos]

No one would deny that Japan has a bigger economy, no

Not bigger, almost four times bigger.

honestly... of everything I have ever seen you write here this single sentance shows how little you understand of the world. you do known Russia is the biggest energy producer on Earth don't you? This is just staggering in its ignorance.

Thats sounds impressive until you look at the raw numbers. The fact is that no nation whether it be Saudi Arabia or Russia is sitting on the lions share of energy resources.

Russia produces 12% of the world's oil, which is just 2% of higher that that of the US itself. I said it would cause disruptions but we will recover. Reserve production in places like Saudi Arabia could actually cover the lost capacity all by itself, though obviously that would greatly reduce the usable supply over time.

But thats just oil, a important but still single commodity. You are not going to be able to declare great power status on that alone. The Japanese economy is one of the primary engines of the world RRW, Russia isn't in the same league let alone the same ball game.

So yes, when ripping nations out of the world economy willy nilly the loss of Russia over Japan is going to be moderate in comparison. Thems be the breaks.

----

BTW, you are going to have to provide some sources on Russia being the biggest energy producer in the world. While the are the biggest oil producer they are only leading by 2% of world production behing the US at 10%. At the same time, the US alone produces more than three times as much coal as Russia (though esports less) and more natural more natural gas.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_production

And thats just the US, there are still places like China to factor in.

Soon (in about 5 years' time) to overtake such other economic nonentities such as Brazil, the UK, France and Italy http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...n a popular option in academia these days...?

 

[Verbose]

I would hestitate to call their oil/gas exports modest. Doesn't Germany (and Europe) get most of their oil/gas from Russia? I seem to remember some worries a couple years ago when Russia threatened to shut off the pipes during the winter. I know bad things happened in the Ukraine but I think they stopped short of cutting it off for Germany and the rest of Europe.

That was largely due to how the Eastern Bloc infrastructure still lingers. Bunch of smaller countries in C and E Europe ended up freezing when Russia turned off the tap. None of the former western nations noticed much. The Germans are the ones guzzling Russian gas right now, and their pipeline wasn't touched. Russia would like to hook more of western Europe directly to it. On the other hand there are plans for piping to Europe through Turkey (Nabucco) which wouldn't be handled by Russia.

 

[Patroklos]

Russia is convienent for gas access to be sure, that is a feather in their cap. It doesn't make them a great power any more than it makes Saudi Arabia one.

 

[Ajidica]

If I remember, doesn't Russia have enough oil under permafrost in Siberia to supply our current demand level for thirty years?

 

[red_elk]

Soon (in about 5 years' time) to overtake such other economic nonentities such as Brazil, the UK, France and Italy http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_future_GDP_(PPP)_estimates

Actually, your table says that Russia is already ahead of them now, in 2011.
And 6-th in the world by GDP PPP.

 

[Patroklos]

They have massive reserves, but they are not the only ones. I see no reason to take currently unexploitable reserves into account when discussing the situation now unless the impending exhausting of them are having real world effects in the present.

 

[Flying Pig]

Actually, your table says that Russia is already ahead of them now, in 2011.
And 6-th in the world by GDP PPP.

Economics don't really count for as much as we think. Only Japan has economic influence that isn't backed up by anything else, and that's only because it has a lot of that economic power; conversely Germany has almost no influence outside the EU despite having a very strong economy.