Russia's Geopolitical Future

[Patroklos]

I'd bet on Japan's Navy over Russia's anyday

 

[Flying Pig]

I'd bet on Japan's Navy over Russia's anyday

You know you've got a problem when you're considered close competetion for a navy that's banned from taking part in combat.

 

[Ajidica]

Does Russia even need a navy? As long as they keep their ballistic missle subs in good condition their navy is as good as they need it.

 

[Patroklos]

Yeah, about that....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_...ta_IV_.28Project_667BDRM.2C_Delfin.29_7_boats

Some of them are running, but I wouldn't want to submerge with them.

In any case, if you want to be more than a regional power you need to be able to project outside that region. Russia, as it stands now, can't to any meaningful degree. Remember the debacle that simple Venezuala port visit turned into?

 

[Ajidica]

Japan has little in the ability to project force, but does that mean they are not a Great Power?

 

[Flying Pig]

Yeah, about that....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_...ta_IV_.28Project_667BDRM.2C_Delfin.29_7_boats

Some of them are running, but I wouldn't want to submerge with them.

In any case, if you want to be more than a regional power you need to be able to project outside that region. Russia, as it stands now, can't to any meaningful degree. Remember the debacle that simple Venezuala port visit turned into?

There was a bit of a stir a while ago after it emerged that they were trying to follow the Royal Navy's Trident nuclear submarines with hunter-killers, but they were essentially told to cease and desist by the Foreign Office - how times have changed!

 

[Lillefix]

What's the point in force projection other than throwing away money? Seriously, if France and and Britain didn't have the capacity to attack Libya, so what?

 

[Flying Pig]

What's the point in force projection other than throwing away money? Seriously, if France and and Britain didn't have the capacity to attack Libya, so what?

The Sons of Valhalla delivering rather large 'hints' to Colonel Gaddaffi would beg to differ.

 

[Patroklos]

Japan has little in the ability to project force, but does that mean they are not a Great Power?

Japan has one of the largest navies in the world, they rank with if not in front of most the European powers with the exception of France as they have a real (though small) aircraft carrier capability.

 

[Flying Pig]

Japan has one of the largest navies in the world, they rank with if not in front of most the European powers with the exception of France as they have a real (though small) aircraft carrier capability.

Not really; only having the one (rather clapped out) hull makes it very difficult to do anything meaningful because of the risk if it's lost. The British model is far from ideal - until we get those nice supercarriers - but we can still put a brigade on some foreigner's shore with helicopter cover and cover from enemy air-power, as well as dropping another brigade (although pretty much a division by size) from the sky; in fact we've pretty much got an entire Corps (the ARRC, which is something like 80% British and 20% DBW but could be re-constituted pretty quickly into a British formation if required by swapping in one of our armoured divisions) dedicated to being thrown into a crisis anywhere in the world. Japan has a very powerful navy, but only in Japanese waters and it would really struggle elsewhere, predominantly because it doesn't have the operational experience of other nations' fleets.

 

[ParkCungHee]

Japan has a very powerful navy, but only in Japanese waters and it would really struggle elsewhere, predominantly because it doesn't have the operational experience of other nations' fleets.

Make's me wonder how they'd deal with attacks on Japan's merchant marine fleet operating outside of Japanese waters.

 

[RedRalph]

Not really; only having the one (rather clapped out) hull makes it very difficult to do anything meaningful because of the risk if it's lost. The British model is far from ideal - until we get those nice supercarriers - but we can still put a brigade on some foreigner's shore with helicopter cover and cover from enemy air-power, as well as dropping another brigade (although pretty much a division by size) from the sky; in fact we've pretty much got an entire Corps (the ARRC, which is something like 80% British and 20% DBW but could be re-constituted pretty quickly into a British formation if required by swapping in one of our armoured divisions) dedicated to being thrown into a crisis anywhere in the world. Japan has a very powerful navy, but only in Japanese waters and it would really struggle elsewhere, predominantly because it doesn't have the operational experience of other nations' fleets.

On top of which, Japan has absolutely zero independent foreign policy, which really bumps it way down the list in geopolitical terms. Russia has the freedom to pursue it's foreign policy goals without deference to anyone, unlike the vast majority of the world.

Economics are important when considering geopolitical power, but they are not the only factor by a long shot. Japan having a much bigger economy than Russia does not make up for the fact that they aren't on the UNSC, have no independent foreign policy, cannot project power beyond their immediate shores, have little to no engagement with the main hotspots of the world, are in the middle of an actual demographic meltdown (unlike Russia, this has stablised), have no allies independent from the US and cannot even ask the US to vacate an airbase when they patently wish to.

Not liking Russia is one thing, and there are several reasons to do so. Pretending they are irrelevant flies in the face of the very obvious facts of the world today. Claiming their economy is irrelevant and then saying it doesn't matter if they are poised to overtake many of the world's recognised economic heavyweights in five years is very silly, to put it mildly.

In almost every metric used to measure a state's power, Russia is near the top globally. I like discussing geopolitical matters here but when someone claims that if Russia disappeared all that would happen would be "mild oil and gas concerns", well then, you can forgive me for dismissing their knowledge on the subject. especially when the same person claimed two years ago that Ukraine was a western nation because they drink coke and watch Disney movies.

I'm more than willing to keep discussing this with people who actually have a clue what they are talking about (even if they disagree with me) and aren't motivated by some sort of chest-thumping agenda on behalf of their nation's allies.

 

[RedRalph]

Make's me wonder how they'd deal with attacks on Japan's merchant marine fleet operating outside of Japanese waters.

They couldn't. Not at all, they would be totally dependent on other states. But, you know, stuff like this conveniently flies out the window when one is trying to buff them up against Russia...

 

[Flying Pig]

Make's me wonder how they'd deal with attacks on Japan's merchant marine fleet operating outside of Japanese waters.

If it were pirates, they'd be legally unable to act, but if it were another state that would be an act of war and they're allowed to fight back then - hopefully nobody would be stupid enough to try that, however, as defending Japan and Japanese shopping is their entire raison d'etre and they're no doubt very, very good at it owing to constant training, not to mention their fantastic equipment. If the Chinese tried it, they'd probably be able to teach them a significant lesson even before a very irate US Navy turned up.

On top of which, Japan has absolutely zero independent foreign policy, which really bumps it way down the list in geopolitical terms. Russia has the freedom to pursue it's foreign policy goals without deference to anyone, unlike the vast majority of the world.

Only because nobody else really cares about what they're doing; they're not ruffling any feathers. If their interests ever clashed with a serious nation's, it would be a rather different ball game - witness the very tense situation that developed over Georgia a couple of years ago.

have no allies independent from the US

...and therefore NATO and the entire free world. The US is a pretty big ally regardless.

cannot even ask the US to vacate an airbase when they patently wish to.

The people may, but the governemnt understands that their partnership with the Americans - much like our brothers Down Under - gives them a lot behind them with China so close by, and it's worth irritating a few people to preserve that.

Not liking Russia is one thing, and there are several reasons to do so. Pretending they are irrelevant flies in the face of the very obvious facts of the world today. Claiming their economy is irrelevant and then saying it doesn't matter if they are poised to overtake many of the world's recognised economic heavyweights in five years is very silly, to put it mildly.

No-one's saying they're irrelevant, but they're just about clinging onto the bottom of the Great Power table rather than dominating it. Economics don't count for much unless they're massive - Japan - and overtaking Western nations won't mean much unless they decide to translate that into quite radical measures.

I like discussing geopolitical matters here but when someone claims that if Russia disappeared all that would happen would be "mild oil and gas concerns", well then, you can forgive me for dismissing their knowledge on the subject. especially when the same person claimed two years ago that Ukraine was a western nation because they drink coke and watch Disney movies.

Ok, what's your take on what would happen?

 

[ParkCungHee]

If it were pirates, they'd be legally unable to act, but if it were another state that would be an act of war and they're allowed to fight back then - hopefully nobody would be stupid enough to try that, however, as defending Japan and Japanese shopping is their entire raison d'etre and they're no doubt very, very good at it owing to constant training, not to mention their fantastic equipment.

But they're trained to do it in Japanese waters and against poorly equipped pirates. You don't think they'd be a little out of their depth hunting Russian subs in the Atlantic and Indian oceans?

 

[RedRalph]

What do I think would happen if Russia disappeared? It would be an unparalleled economic catastrophe. Energy prices would skyrocket, the balance of power in many places would be massively disrupted and many people would freeze to death. Complete and utter economic turmoil.

And the Georgia war proves my point: the west disapproved, complained, threatened, whinged, and ultimately did absolutely nothing, because they can't bully Russia. They sat there and watched their ally get destroyed because Russia is too powerful for them to control.

FP, much of what you have said has shown how Japan is not independent and is reliant on foreign allies, I don't really think that does much for it's alleged claim as a geopolitical heavyweight.

 

[RedRalph]

Flying pig, by 2016 Russia's economy will be bigger than the British economy. How would you describe the likely economic repercussions of the UK vanishing in 2016?

But they're trained to do it in Japanese waters and against poorly equipped pirates. You don't think they'd be a little out of their depth hunting Russian subs in the Atlantic and Indian oceans?

Quite a different skillset, I would imagine.

 

[Cutlass]

Russian oil and gas exports are large and important, but not irreplaceable. It would cause problems, but not disasters.

 

[Flying Pig]

Flying pig, by 2016 Russia's economy will be bigger than the British economy. How would you describe the likely economic repercussions of the UK vanishing in 2016?

Economic? Not all that bad outside of the banking sector. The real effect would be from the lack of British military and diplomatic influence overseas, especially in the EU and Commonwealth.

 

[Patroklos]

On top of which, Japan has absolutely zero independent foreign policy, which really bumps it way down the list in geopolitical terms.

Nonsense, it has all the freedom of anyone else to pursue its foreign policy and does so on a regular basis. The fact that Japan has allies and treaties (it can withdraw from at any moment) makes it the same as everyone. Well, not Russia, as they have no friends.

The only thing you can possible be refering to is their Constitution, but that constitution is the way it is at this point and time the way it is because thats how the Japanese independantly want it. They could change it if they want to, and they have in fact been making a lot of noise about doing so.

I will point out though that the Japanese navy has made several deployment with auxillaries and warships alike to both the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea in support of Iraq and Afghanistan as well as participated in the anti piracy operations off Somolia.

This dog isn't going to hunt for you RRW, Japan has a more modern and active navy that Russia and is participating in foerign operations more than Russia.

Russia has the freedom to pursue it's foreign policy goals without deference to anyone, unlike the vast majority of the world.

Homeless people have the freedom to live anywhere. That lonely kid eating by himself at the lunch table isn't doing it because he is wicked awesome.

Russia is isolated, that isn't a boone to anything they do. Allies make you stronger, not weaker. Russia does have the freedom to pursue whatever ends it wants I will agree, unforunetly they don't have the capability to do most of it due to their light weight economic status and lack of influnece pretty much everywhere.

Do you know why Russia had to shut gas off to half a continent? Its because they had no other means to pursue their ends besides a temper tantrum.

Economics are important when considering geopolitical power, but they are not the only factor by a long shot. Japan having a much bigger economy than Russia does not make up for the fact that they aren't on the UNSC,

A fair point. I will point out though that Russia hasn't been able to use the UNSC to any logical end in two decades. They are a spoiler, and that just a pathetic attempt to look important.

have no independent foreign policy,

Already disproven.

cannot project power beyond their immediate shores

Already proven false. Do I have to bring out the ridiculously hilarious Russian Navy comming out party where Russia's most powerful warship limped home when doing nothing more than steaming to a gloried liberty port for vodka drinking. Impressive.

Japan's navy is simply far more useful, full stop.

have little to no engagement with the main hotspots of the world

Japan is or was on the ground in Iraq, Afghanistan, Cambodia, Golan Hieghts, and off Somolia. Or in other words, in the most active hot spots in the world. THEY ARE IN HAITI RRW!

Did you know Japan is building a naval base in Djibouti? Which is farther, Syria to Russia or Djibouti to Japan?

Russia has been seen fleatingly off Somolia.

Win = Japan.

are in the middle of an actual demographic meltdown (unlike Russia, this has stablised),

Yeah, Russia is still in a decline population situation, which is why they accept immigrants at all at this point. What population stability they do have comes from the muslim minorities they are current oppressing, which doesn't speak well to your great power theory.

have no allies independent from the US

What? You think the majority of Western Europe and places like Australia don't consider themselves allies of Japan? Sure its not a formal military alliance like NATO but if you think Japan isn't bosom buddies with ever first rate Western power in the planet you are on crack.

But this was a self defeating exercise for you because how can even pretend to hold up the ally situation of Japan as an example of weakness when you have RUSSIA in your corner. RUSSIA not only has no allies of note, they are adversatial competitors with most states inlcuding the most powerful ones in the world.

Not a smart move there. Win = Japan.

and cannot even ask the US to vacate an airbase when they patently wish to.

If they wanted to they would, they haven't because they don't. Whatever their motivation for not asking is they are completely capable of doing so and staying their own hand.

Voluntarily hosting an ally is not a mark of shame. Are you going to claim the UK, Italy, Greece, and Spain have no independant foreign policy as well? Logical consitancy requires this of you.

Not liking Russia is one thing, and there are several reasons to do so.

Like or dislike has nothing to do with it, reality does. Incidently I have provided quite a frew facts about this topic while you are just shooting from the cuff.

So are you going to back up that "Russia is the larges energy producer in the world!" schtick or what?

Pretending they are irrelevant flies in the face of the very obvious facts of the world today.

When you explain why they are relevant then we can pretend you have a point. As it stands right now we are faced with the very real fact that Russia is all but absent from most major things that occur worldwide.

How many ships did they send to help out with the tsunami relief again? Exactly...

Claiming their economy is irrelevant and then saying it doesn't matter if they are poised to overtake many of the world's recognised economic heavyweights in five years is very silly, to put it mildly.

As I accuratly pointed out five years from now has absolutely zero relevance to right now. And as I also pointed out your claim to this is unsubstatiated. Russia would have to quadrupple its economy to just match Japan. Even then Japan would be an infinetly more advanced economy.

Do you buy any products from Russia? What wiz bang technology is Russia currently the leader in?

Economically there is no contest. Russia is a petro state, that is a metric against being considered a great power, not for it.

In almost every metric used to measure a state's power, Russia is near the top globally.

But generally below Japan.

I like discussing geopolitical matters here but when someone claims that if Russia disappeared all that would happen would be "mild oil and gas concerns", well then, you can forgive me for dismissing their knowledge on the subject.

The truth hurts. I am not sure why Russia is your pet project, but the least you can do is have some sense of proportio when comparing them to the rest of the world.

especially when the same person claimed two years ago that Ukraine was a western nation because they drink coke and watch Disney movies.

Quote? I thought not...

I'm more than willing to keep discussing this with people who actually have a clue what they are talking about (even if they disagree with me) and aren't motivated by some sort of chest-thumping agenda on behalf of their nation's allies.

Irony.

Make's me wonder how they'd deal with attacks on Japan's merchant marine fleet operating outside of Japanese waters.

They couldn't. Not at all, they would be totally dependent on other states. But, you know, stuff like this conveniently flies out the window when one is trying to buff them up against Russia...

Its hilarious you want to hold up being able to defend far flung merchant shipping as a boon for Russia in a Japan/Russia comparison. Japan's fleet is infinity more cabale of doing this if for no other reason that it is perfectly maintained and trained, while Russia just started constuction of its first surface combatant since 1991.

The simple fact is neither could defend their merchant vessels around the world. The same goes for China, the UK, France, India, Brazil, Italy or anyone else. Even the US would have a hard time doing it because the physical size of fleets have shrunk dramatically in favor of more capable but fewer vessels (or in the case of Russia just fewer period). Defending lines of communications is a numbers game, and the US is the only nation with any hope in hell of defending itself against a real maritime threat of that sort.

But they're trained to do it in Japanese waters and against poorly equipped pirates. You don't think they'd be a little out of their depth hunting Russian subs in the Atlantic and Indian oceans?

Dude, you obviously have no idea what the navies of Russia and Japan look like. Here, do some reading.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_ships_of_the_Japan_Maritime_Self-Defense_Force

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_ships_of_the_Russian_Navy

Japan would clean the floor with Russia's Pacific Fleet, and I would even give the edge to the Japan over Russia's combined fleet given that most of it is hollow derelicts (as Venezuala clearly showed). But lets be clear, there is no way anything from the Atlantic of Black Sea is getting to the Pacific (as, again, Venezuala clearly showed).

Actually Russia tried that once, it didn't work out to well for them.