Sadr's Cease Fire

[nc-1701]

Ends in mid October, that's less than a month before our presidential elections. McCain has staked his campaign on an improving Iraq, Obama wants to withdraw from Iraq and would get a PR boost if Iraq got worse.
Does anybody else think Al Sadr will order the Mahdi army to go on a massive offensive in October when his current cease fire order ends? A mass of dead bodies shotly before the election could remind Americans of the war and cause McCain severe problems right before the election.
Obviously Sadr who wants American's out of Iraq would prefer Obama be elected because he would be far more likely to withdraw than McCain would be.

Anyone thnk this is likely at all? Or am I thinking way too much?

 

[Gooblah]

I dunno. I think Sadr has realized, that, for the most part, the people's opinion is against him, his troops are doing things outside of his control, and his influence is waning. His best chance for power is to study more and to become a larger political figure. With time, he could help steer the country towards democracy.

 

[Patroklos]

I also think Sadr wants legitimate power. Being warlord over some rable was fun, but he is a holy man and watching his mosques blow up and seeing his muslim communities decend into the stone age probably got old. And of course now as he sees his ideologically motivated holy warriors degenerate into petty masochistic crime lords greedy for money and power in and of itself he realizes his power to influence them at all will degrade over time. Better to stop now and see what he can hold onto.

Has his years of instigating violence achieved anything for him?

 

[I'm Cleo!]

Patroklos,

Has his years of instigating violence achieved anything for him?

Random Americans on message boards are speculating that he could have an effect on the 2008 Presidential Election. I'd say he's achieved some notoriety.

Cleo

 

[Patroklos]

Thats nice, in 9 months we can claim his violence gained him something if he picks it back up again and it does anything.

Right now his violence hasn't achieved him anything but missery for his followers.