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Saudi-Iranian War?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Tigranes, Jan 3, 2016.

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Possible Saudi-Iranian war: which side are you on?

Poll closed Jan 3, 2017.
  1. Saudi

    8.1%
  2. Iranian

    35.1%
  3. A plague on both their houses

    45.9%
  4. I don't care about Middle East

    10.8%
  1. Phrossack

    Phrossack Armored Fish and Armored Men

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    I don't know how you reached that conclusion--we CFCers, at least, pretty much discuss or mention Saudi Arabia in a purely negative light. And, living in a Western country, I have to say that pretty much everyone I hear talking about Saudi Arabia, save my Arabic class and my Arabic professor who lives there, only has bad things to say about it. Don't confuse the US government with the American people.

    Anyway, in a hypothetical war, I'm wondering what the goals of each side are and how they plan on reaching each other. Overland, they have a country or two in the way, and either would get trashed trying to do something stupid like invade the other. Neither has the capability to invade the other by sea. So, what exactly would they be fighting over? Bahrain?
     
  2. luiz

    luiz Trendy Revolutionary

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    Yeah, Saudi Arabia and Iran have been fighting a "Cold War" for some time now, where the fighting is happening by proxies in foreign countries. I really don't think they'll fight each other directly.
     
  3. classical_hero

    classical_hero In whom I trust

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    The Yemen war is already a proxy war between the two countries. The Houthis are supported by Iran and the loyalists are supported by SA.
     
  4. amadeus

    amadeus めっちゃしんどい

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    I feel like an even more powerful Saudi government would be more easily swayed than an even more powerful Iranian government. I feel like the Iranian government would have too much popular support if it were opposed by the West; can Saudi Arabia afford that? That's why I'd rather have a stronger Saudi Arabia than a stronger Iran.
     
  5. Verbose

    Verbose Chieftain

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    I agree with the sentiment that the Saudi and Iranian governments are both more or less equally odious. The difference is that Iranian society as a whole is a lot more sophisticated and attractive than the Saudi one. Saudi is a pretty damn primitive place, that for accidents of geography and history has ended up sitting on a huge pile of cash. In that respect I would seem to have a clear preference for Iran.
     
  6. Verbose

    Verbose Chieftain

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    Except the Saudis are apparently more deeply and directly engaged than just a proxy war. They've got active troops in there, have gotten stuck, and it's costing them a mint. The Iranians by comparison are mostly indirectly supporting the Huthis, with some smaller direct contributions of weapons. The assymetrical spending on the conflict is all in Iran's favour. All they need to do is occasionally throw pocket-change at it, to keep it going.
     
  7. Cutlass

    Cutlass The Man Who Wasn't There.

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    As to an actual war, SA does not have the army to invade Iran. Iran does not have the navy to cross the Gulf against SA's air force. SA could do a lot of airstrikes, but that's the practical limit of the fighting. Iran, in turn, could sink a bunch of tankers.
     
  8. Tee Kay

    Tee Kay Cruising

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    I feel like a lot of people here are caricaturing Saudi society. It's not like all or even most of the people there are personally hyper-religious nutcases. It only seems like Saudi society is more odious mostly because of the strict gender segregation and restrictions on women imposed by the authorities.
     
  9. Hygro

    Hygro soundcloud.com/hygro/

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    You say that like it doesn't have popular support.
     
  10. Tee Kay

    Tee Kay Cruising

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    How much of the support is genuine? And how much is people just wanting to get on with their normal lives, or too scared/intimidated to protest?
     
  11. Phrossack

    Phrossack Armored Fish and Armored Men

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    My Arabic professor lives in Saudi Arabia most of the year, and she says she was disappointed to find that your average Saudi isn't as pious as she had hoped. In fact, Saudi Arabian society used to be less rigidly religious and strict before the siege of the Great Mosque Siege of 1979. But these days extreme dogmatism is the law.
     
  12. Tee Kay

    Tee Kay Cruising

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    So in a sense that was their 9/11.
     
  13. Silurian

    Silurian Warlord

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    The majority of Palestinians are Sunni

    From Wiki

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinians#Religion



    From NY Times from 1982 my highlight

    http://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/21/world/saudis-and-the-plo-are-at-odds-over-us.html


    Added

    The Saudis have made a lot of money from selling oil.
    They have not dug a hole and buried it, they have invested it.
    Obviously they want the value of their investments to go up rather than down.
    A stable oil price leads to a stable economy which helps the Saudi Investments.
    The Saudis currently have enough money invested to run their country for the next five years.
     
  14. luiz

    luiz Trendy Revolutionary

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    And...
    Hezbollah is still a Shia organization, armed and funded by Iran, which has conducted terrorist attacks in Israel and Lebanon.

    You're right though that Sunni organizations have also carried out terrorist attacks in Israel in the past (probably the majority). But there are many other examples of Shia-Iranian terrorism, even outside the Middle East, like the AMIA bombing in Buenos Aires, which killed 85 civilians. It's important not to forget how bad the Iranian regime is.

    The Saudis right now are running an unsustainable deficit and will have to engage in serious cuts in their patronage system sooner rather than later.

    But I don't mean the Saudis are keeping prices stable right now (in fact oil prices have been anything but stable in the last years). I meant in the years following the Islamic Revolution in Iran all the way to the recent past.

    Before 1979, the Saudis promoted oil embargoes against the Western powers twice. Never again after the ayatollahs seized power in Iran. So your assertion that they only keep prices stable out of a pure investment perspective is flawed. No, there is a clear political / strategical component here (though of course there is also an economic interest component). The Saudis want to be on good terms with the West, and since they saw themselves more dependent than ever on the West after 1979, they wanted to make the West dependent on them too. For that they frequently went out of their way, and against their immediate economic interest, to make sure oil kept flowing at reasonable prices to the West no matter what crisis is unfolding.
     
  15. Silurian

    Silurian Warlord

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    Hezbollah was set up by Lebanese in Lebanon after Israel invaded Lebanon after the PLO shot the Israeli ambassador in London. The Shia were caught in the crossfire and started fighting back.

    Posted by some terrorists. (with time peoples opinion changes)

    If the current militias in the USA were to fight an invader how would they act.
    http://www.newslo.com/red-dawn-remake-accidentally-endorses-terrorism/
     
  16. luiz

    luiz Trendy Revolutionary

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    Yeah? They were fighting Israeli occupation of Lebanon by killing civilians in Buenos Aires? (Among many other completely unjustifiable terrorist attacks).

    Give me a break.
     
  17. Silurian

    Silurian Warlord

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    Yes Hezbollah has carried out terrorist attacks aimed at Israeli civilians in response to the death of Lebanese civilians. The terrorists who carried out the bombings in Argentina, Spain and Bulgaria should be caught and tried. So should the members of the IDF who have carried out or allowed war crimes to take place in Lebanon.

    From Wiki my highlght - The Shia live in the south of Lebanon

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Lebanon_War#Casualties
     
  18. SS-18 ICBM

    SS-18 ICBM Oscillator

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    Iran is the lesser Satan here.
     
  19. luiz

    luiz Trendy Revolutionary

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    Who's talking about Isreal? Why did you bring Israel up? The thread is discussing who is worst between Saudi Arabia and Iran. People mentioned that SA sponsors terrorists. I mentioned that so does Iran. Both are undeniable facts.

    BTW, the civilians who died in Buenos Aires at the AMIA attack were not Israelis, they were Argentinian citizens. They were also Jewish, but maybe you think that all Jews are Israeli? Or that retaliation against Argentinian Jews is somehow a rational response to perceived abuses by Israel?

    Hezbollah = terrorist organization financed and armed by Iran. End of discussion.
     
  20. Silurian

    Silurian Warlord

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    I am a bit confused.
    You were the first person in this thread to mention Israeli’s. Post 12
    You responded to a post of mine (Post 33) mentioning Israel in your reply (post 34) where you make two mentions of Israel.
    You have made six posts mentioning Israel, I have made two in reply to you and Thor has made one mention.
    So you are talking about Israel and people are replying to you. If you do not want to talk about it do about bring it up.

    Hezbollah has murdered Israeli citizens in terrorist attacks in Argentina.
     

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