contre said:
I think we have to assume a sufficiently advanced civilization could find us regardless of what we do. We're already starting to find rocky planets in habitable zones. Imagine what even a mere 250 years of technological advancement would do for detecting such worlds!
Assuming there are any highly advanced ETs in our part of the universe, the best we could realistically hope for is that they wouldn't care about us and wouldn't be interested in making contact with us (especially if they've been watching the things we broadcast!). At worst, they might conclude - again, based on our own broadcasts -that we are a dangerous, obnoxious and rapacious species which needs to be eliminated before we become a direct threat to them. At any rate, it doesn't seem like a very good idea to deliberately go out of our way to contact them.
Speculations about what we will be capable centuries down the track also bring up another interesting point: considering how we are currently plundering our own planet, will there even be an industrial human civilization 250 years from now?
peter grimes said:
I think this misses the point entirely. Consider an analogy: Europe in 1491.
A warring collection of nation-states, ethnics pockets, duchies and fiefdoms. There wasn't any entity analogous to what we call 'Europe' today. It took the discovery by these proto-Europeans of the Americas in order for them to see themselves as something that has more in common within itself than without.
Likewise, I strong suspect that confirmation of another intelligence in the galaxy would have a similar effect on people all over the planet. Maybe not - I certainly could be wrong - but i don't think that sort of discovery would have a negative impact on people. If anything, it would be positive.
Just because it may not be a 2-way communication doesn't mean it wouldn't have value. Especially considering how little money is actually involved.
That's an intriguing take on history. War in Europe certainly didn't stop after the discovery of the New World. In fact intra-European violence peaked during WW2, about 450 years after Europe first officially became aware of the New World. Since then, a range of factors - e.g. the threat of mutual nuclear annihilation, economic development, the spread of democracy - have allowed Europe to remain relatively peaceful, for now at least. Awareness of non-Europeans (in America and elsewhere) has had very little to do with advancing the cause of peace within Europe itself. However, awareness of non-Europeans did contribute to the development of a racial superiority complex amongst European societies.
Humanity's likely reaction(s) to the confirmation of extra-terrestrial intelligence is difficult to predict. Some possibilities include:
*Indifference. Okay, so there are intelligent ETs somewhere out there. So what? We still have our various problems and we still have to live our day-to-day lives.
*Development of a collective superiority complex (if we are more advanced) or a collective inferiority complex (if we are less advanced). A cursory glance at the history books gives you an idea of what lovely sorts of outcomes that would lead to. See my point above about European's superiority complex towards Native Americans. To get an idea of what a human inferiority complex towards ET might look like, have a look at the history of anti-Semitism in Western culture.
*Denial. Remember back in the mid-20th century when humanity got its first pictures of Earth from space? Remember how all those scientists and philosophers and spiritual leaders and poets rejoiced at the profound implications of those photos which
showed us just how incredibly beautiful and fragile and unique and insignificant and precious our Little Blue Planet was? Do you also remember how we couldn't be arsed to come up with a worthwhile 11th-hour global agreement at Copenhagen in 2009 to undertake collective action to avert a human-induced global climate disaster?
*The 'best' case scenario is that we are indeed united by "our common humanity" i.e. against an alien Other. So in other words, the only way we can truly attain Peace On Earth And Goodwill Towards All Men is if we are united against an alien threat. That's a pretty cynical and sad reflection on us, don't you think?
One-way communication with ETs might not be completely without value, but merely of very limited value (at best). As I said before, there are other more immediate and worthwhile concerns to which our species can - and should - devote its time and resources.
