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SGOTM 07 - Smurkz

Discussion in 'Civ4 - Succession GOTM' started by AlanH, Apr 17, 2008.

  1. Niklas

    Niklas Fully Functional GOTM Staff

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    Ok, some random thoughts and replies. It's late so forgive me if this is unstructured. :crazyeye:

    I would still go for a non-PA diplo win. If we go for a PA we desperately need to decide what our new VC will be - it likely won't be diplo due to the negative modifiers we get from all others from having a PA. And since we've focused a lot on getting research and relations up (which of course would be valid anyway), it makes sense to me to continue down that path.

    Regarding tech trade - I agree with unkle (and zyxy, and myself previously) that we can likely be a lot more aggressive in our trading at this point. We still don't know many AIs, and their WFYABTA counters don't start until we do meet them, so anything we trade for now will not count against that. And of those we already know - Washington (have you seen how cramped he is for space?), Toku and HC are not fast researchers, and it seems likely they will end up on the bottom half where WFYABTA doesn't apply anyway. Asoka will be our best friend anyway - we should make sure of that (and shouldn't even be hard if only we could get that Judaism!!). Lizzy is the odd one, but we can't hope to trade with everyone anyway. But her cap is the highest to start with.

    If we trade for Priesthood, we can save a turn towards CS. We will want to trade for Sailing anyway. How about we trade for Sailing with HC and Poly for Priesthood with Washington? We could also trade Literature to Lizzy, presumably for Mono (or Sailing), though I'm a bit wary before we have GLib in hand. Also Lizzy is probably Toku's worst enemy (of those we have met anyway).

    Archery is +6000 soldiers... if we're going for aggressive trading anyway...

    We probably need to meet people soon, to avoid tripping on unknown toes. We can get "Traded with worst enemies" demerits with AIs even if we haven't met them yet. It seems very unlikely that we would care about that regarding Washington, if he is anyone's worst enemy then we can't keep that someone happy anyway. HC is another story. But after this aggressive round of trading, I think it makes sense to scout a bit.

    Could we not spare 15 hammers on a Scout, instead of sending out our warrior? Not that we need the warrior back home, but the Scout is twice as fast.

    If we mostly want troops for boosting our power rating, it might make sense to build archers rather than axemen. Same power boost (2000), fewer hammers (25 instead of 35). Or swords, which are 3000 soldiers for 40 hammers. In hammers/k-soldiers efficiency that's 12.5 for Archer, 13.3 for Sword and 17.5 for Axe. But 2 Swords also cost less upkeep than 3 Archers. Later we want to build Cho-ko-nus of course, 5000 soldiers for 60 hammers is a very good tradeoff. And Archers upgrade to Chokus...

    Alright, off to bed I go, see you guys in the morning.
     
  2. Niklas

    Niklas Fully Functional GOTM Staff

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    I decided to try to get a grip on the probabilities for the AI to declare war. It's a lot of code but I'm chugging through it. One question I would like to know though - what is the expected number of land tiles for a map with these settings?

    Also, please comment on the trading business! :ack:
     
  3. zyxy

    zyxy Warmongering Fool

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    So the factors we can influence are

    on the positive side:
    +1 for peace.
    +3 to +9 for sharing a religion.
    +2 for exporting resources
    +2 for open borders.

    +2 for defensive pacts
    +2 to +4 for a shared war
    +1 to +5 for civics choice
    up to +4 for fair trade
    giving in to demands (temporary +)

    on the negative side:
    -1 to -4 for having different religions
    -1 to -4 for rival defensive pacts
    refusing demands (eternal or temporary -)
    war and things related to it

    (Not sure I got everything correctly.) Problem is that many of the positives also come with negatives towards other civs. For example, can we reasonably expect to sign DPs with all our friends? I think we can assume that we can gain the items in italics, but not the others. Even just supplying 11 AIs with resources for 100 turns is a bit much - perhaps we should also supply copper, and get the Globe up quickly so we can give away silver as well.

    Then there is the issue of demands: we'll have to decide which demands to accept, and which to deny - and from whom.

    Btw, we could deduce the hidden modifiers from where the AIs change from one stance (pleased, cautious, ...) to another. The important one is factor 1.

    Regarding trades, I am for trading for sailing (surprise, surprise), not so sure about Priesthood as it is really cheap.
     
  4. Renata

    Renata homicidal jungle cat GOTM Staff

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    Sorry, I'm having a rotten couple of days and just can't focus right now.
     
  5. Niklas

    Niklas Fully Functional GOTM Staff

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    Ok, let's have a look at WFYABTA for the nearest future, to try to predict what kind of trouble we might expect from it.

    Recap: Asoka and Washington have caps at 12, Lizzy at 18.

    We have so far traded for BW, IW, AH and Maths - 4 techs. That means we can trade for 8 more until Asoka and Washington won't trade us any more, a bit longer for Lizzy. What might those 8 techs be? Sailing most likely, so that's 7 left. Our next target is CS, and we will want to trade that around as much as possible to pick up some nice techs - Philosophy would be great, as would MC and also Machinery. Construction, Drama and Compass perhaps? And Currency of course. There's your 7 techs.

    We plan to reach CS on turn 86, exactly 28 turns after we did our first trades. For any given leader, the chance that they will have forgotten about at least one previous trade by then is 69%, 32% for 2 or more, 11% for 3 or more.

    At that point we will have received +1 OB bonus and +1 resource trade bonus with Asoka, going to +4 (which is likely +5 with hidden factors since he is already pleased with us at +2). If we get Judaism fairly soon, we might have +3 religion bonus as well. Hopefully some of the trades we do with him (assuming he doesn't outresearch us) can increase the Fair Trade bonus a bit. If not, again assuming we get Judaism, we will likely reach that +10 within 10 turns thereafter. So (again assuming Judaism) I would be very surprised if we are not Friendly with Asoka before turn 100.

    So, if we plan to trade for those 8 techs I listed and nothing more, we can likely keep trading with Asoka when we need to. If we do more trades than that, it may mean that we risk missing some key tech. We should remember though that we will (hopefully) still have Lizzy to trade with, though we know she is stingy with monopolies.

    With that in mind, I think we should probably research Priesthood ourselves. It likely means a one-turn delay to CS, but getting that one extra trade seems more important to me.

    Hmm, I just noted that Philo and CS are equally priced, I thought CS was more expensive. That means a trade there will be less likely, unfortunately, though not totally impossible if we manage some other nice trades along the way.
     
  6. Methos

    Methos HoF Quattromaster Super Moderator Hall of Fame Staff

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    I'll be gone most of the weekend, with some internet access on Saturday night.
     
  7. Methos

    Methos HoF Quattromaster Super Moderator Hall of Fame Staff

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    The question really is do we want someone else on our continent to research Philosophy, causing another religion and diplo chaos? I'm wondering if we should research it so that we can stifle the religion and trade it for CS, or just research both. I wouldn't mind if someone on the other continent (can't remember if there is one) researches it, but I'd rather not have someone here get it.
     
  8. Niklas

    Niklas Fully Functional GOTM Staff

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    Well, IMO the dream scenario would be that Asoka researches it. He's unlikely to switch out of Judaism, and unlikely to spread it around. Lizzy wouldn't be too bad either. And those two are the fast researchers of our neighbors. If someone somewhere else got it, the results would be less predictable.
     
  9. ChrisShaffer

    ChrisShaffer Board gamer

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    Niklas, it's not just Washington that is cramped for space -- it's freakin' everyone. Close borders will probably spark more wars than anything else in this game.

    I agree, having met so few AI, we don't need to worry as much about WFYABTA. Let's trade, especially for Archery for the +6000 soldiers.

    We can't send the warrior out scouting until we have another military unit, or we will get unhappy from lack of defence. I favor building a scout after the Great Library. It's time to meet the neighbors and get a better sense of the diplomatic front. Make those trades before we send out the scout.

    Remember, we might need ocean going ships to contact all the AI. If we're on a "smaller" continent, a diplomatic victory might not be possible without ocean travel.
     
  10. ChrisShaffer

    ChrisShaffer Board gamer

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    Close technologies that will give us soldiers: Archery 6000, Sailing 2000, Astronomy 4000, Compass 4000, Metal Casting 4000, Construction 4000, Horseback Riding 10000. Buildings: Barracks 4000, Castle 2000, Forge 2000.

    Each axeman only grants 2000 soldiers.

    I'm not convinced we need to build axemen. Trading for Archery and Sailing will grant 8000 soldiers, equal to 4 axemen. Washington has Horseback Riding and won't trade it, but it should be available for trade from someone soon and that's another 10000.

    If we do decide to build units, why not build the cheaper Archer, which counts as the same 2000 soldiers? We're agreed that a war will be completely devastating, so what difference does it make if we have archers or axemen? Or trade for sailing and build a galley for exploring - the galley counts as 2000 soldiers also, the same as an axeman.

    Instead of building military units, I'd rather build a scout and trade for sailing and build a lighthouse. Or trade for Priesthood and (after we finally get religion) build a temple. Or go ahead and build the National Epic.

    Elizabeth will trade Archery and Sailing for Literature.
     
  11. Niklas

    Niklas Fully Functional GOTM Staff

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    As I noted I've dug around in the AI programming related to declaring war. It's an interesting story, I'll try to relate is as simple as possible here. I guess after this game is over I could tidy this up and post it as a strategy article. But that's after the game. :D

    If you don't feel like reading all of this, at least read the conclusion, and preferably the implication section as well. It's good if we are all aware of these things.

    When will the AI go to war

    There are two fundamentally different ways in which the AI can decide to go to war with another civ. Either they go to war for diplomatic reasons, or they do it for strategic reasons.

    Diplomatically, there are two reasons for the AI to go to war. Either they decide to go to war because a demand is rebuked, or they are bought or coerced into a war by an ally. I haven't looked into the stuff behind this since we aren't really risking either at this point.

    The interesting stuff, at least for us here and now, is the strategic reasons for the AI to go to war. There are three different wars the AI could be planning, which all have similar mechanics behind them:
    1) Total war
    2) Limited war
    3) Dogpile war

    Every turn, if the AI is not already at war (or preparing to go to war) with someone, and the AI is not in "financial trouble" (I haven't looked to see what that means), the AI rolls the dice to see if it wants to go for a war. First it rolls to see if it wants to go for a total war. If not, it rolls again to see if it instead wants to go for a limited war. If not that either, it rolls to see if it wants to dogpile someone. If not, no war planned, roll again next turn.

    Total war

    The decision process behind a total war is the following:

    1) Roll the dice, i.e. generate a number up to that AI's iMaxWarRand number. If the rolled number is 0, i.e. a 1/iMaxWarRand chance every turn, the AI decides to see if it wants to go for a total war. Note that this doesn't mean it will go for a total war, only that it will consider it. The number iMaxWarRand is 200 for Asoka and Washington, 300 for Lizzy and 100 for Toku and HC. Note that if the roll is 0 at this step, the AI will not consider a limited or dogpile war that turn even if it doesn't decide to go for a total war after all.

    2) Ok, let's see if we want to go to total war against someone. The first thing to do is to roll the dice again, to get the iNoWarRoll number, which will govern just how willing the AI is to go to a war. This is a number between 0 and 99. The fact that this step is done here and not together with step 4 below means that this number is rolled once and for all for a turn, and all potential targets are compared against that same value.

    3) The AI then makes three passes through all the other civs it has met, to see who to go to war against, if any. If a suitable target is found in one pass, it doesn't bother to do the subsequent passes.

    A) On the first pass, only adjacent neighbors are considered. Just who is considered adjacent is determined by the AI's iMaxWarMinAdjacentLandPercent number, ranging from 0 to 4. If that many percent of the AI's total land borders the considered target, it is a valid target for that pass (for those who have 0, it is enough to be reachable via land). Asoka has 0, HC has 1, Washington 3, Lizzy and Toku 4. This means we are valid targets for Asoka and Washington for this pass, but not for any of the others.

    B) If no suitable target was found on the first pass, in the second pass all civs reachable via land are considered (or, if the AI in question is alone on his land area then all civs, but that's no issue here). In this pass we are valid targets for all our current contacts, and maybe a few more that we haven't met yet.

    C) If no suitable land target is found, all civs are considered. Here we are obviously a potential target for anyone.

    For each pass, for each civ considered, the AI goes through the same steps:

    4) Check if iNoWarRoll >= the AI's iNoWarAttitudeProb for his attitude towards that civ. If it isn't, that civ is not a target.

    5) Check if the AI's power ratio towards that civ exceeds the threshold value for that AI. The threshold value is iMaxWarNearbyPowerRatio in passes A and B, and iMaxWarDistantPowerRatio in pass C. Note that the calculation is done by multiplying the AI's power by this value and then comparing it to the potential target's power. If the threshold isn't exceeded, the AI doesn't feel strong enough to take on that civ as a target.

    6) Each civ that matches the criteria so far (i.e. not liked enough, and not strong enough) is a potential target, so if any civ gets this far in the calculations, the AI will start planning a war. To find who of the potential targets that the AI will choose, calulate the AI's war value against that civ. This is done by the following steps:
    - Take the number of land tiles the target owns that borders the AI, multiplied by 4.
    - Add the "capitol proximity" between the target and the AI - this is quite simply the plot distance between the two capitols, multiplied by 1.5 if the capitols are on different land masses.
    - Multiply the number gotten by a factor determined by the AI's attitude towards the target: 1 for Friendly, 2 for Pleased, 4 for Cautious, 8 for Annoyed and 16 for Furious.

    The chosen target is the one for which this value is highest.

    And that's it, for a total war.

    Limited war

    For a limited war (which is considered if step 1 for total war isn't true), the steps are the same, except there is only one pass, in which all adjacent civs are considered (including all civs that are alone on a landmass, and including all civs anywhere if the AI itself is alone on a landmass). But the values and thresholds used are different.

    1) iLimitedWarRand is used instead of iMaxWarRand. This value is generally lower - 200 for Lizzy, 160 for Washington, 120 for Asoka, 80 for HC and 60 for Toku. This means the AI is more likely to go for a limited war than for a total war.

    2) iNoWarRoll has an additional -10 factor. This means that the chance to accept going to war based on attitude in step 4 is lower, in other words the AI is less likely to go to a limited war with someone it likes, compared to a total war.

    3) Only one pass, as noted.

    4) Same as for total war, except iNoWarRoll is -10 as noted above.

    5) iLimitedWarPowerRatio is used instead of any of the ones noted above. This value can be higher or lower than iMaxWarNearbyPowerRatio depending on leader, there seems to be no real pattern.

    6) War value is calculated exactly the same.

    Dogpile war

    If none of the steps 1) for total or limited war are true, the AI will consider if it should join a dogpile. Again the calculations are done very similar to the previous variants, but with slightly different numbers.

    1) iDogPileWarRand is used instead. This is an interesting value since it says something about the morale of the leader. It can be either 100, 50 or 25 - and lo and behold, Lizzy is one of those with 25 (Toku is another). In other words, Lizzy is very unlikely to decide to go to war on her own (high values for iMaxWarRand and iLimitedWarRand), but if there's a war going on, she's not too picky to jump right in. Washington and HC both have 100, Asoka has 50.

    2) iNoWarRoll has an additional factor of -20, i.e. the AI is even less likely to dogpile someone it likes. In other words, the roll must exceed iNoWarAttitudeProb + 20 for a war to be considered.

    3) Only one pass is done, and in that pass only civs reachable by land are considered. Also, only civs that are at war are considered.

    4) Same as for total war, except iNoWarRoll is -20 as noted above.

    5) The power ratio calculation is done a bit differently, and uses the same number for all leaders. The power of the AI, plus the power of all other civs that the potential target is already at war with, must exceed 1.5 times the target's power.

    6) War value is calculated exactly the same way.


    Implications

    There are a few very interesting implications of this decision process, not surprising. To me what stands out as most important right here and now is that there are two ways to avoid war. One is to be liked well enough, the other is to be strong enough to be a deterrent. But note in particular with the latter that it is a threshold value. What this means is, unless we can reach up to the threshold value of a particular AI, we might as well have 0 power rating, it's going to be just as (not) deterring. And the threshold values are fairly high too - Lizzy is the one with the lowest threshold value, at 80% of her own power for total war. We're not even close to being at 80% of any AI's power at this point. So our only deterrent right now is good relations.

    On the other hand, good relations are a pretty good deterrent already. No AI will ever go to war against someone they are Friendly with (diplomatic reasons aside, I haven't dug into those at all so I don't know if you could buy in someone - I suppose you can, for some AIs like Catherine). No AI will ever dogpile someone they are Pleased with (lowest threshold there is 80, and iNoWarRoll is at -20), few leaders will consider a limited war, and even total war is 20% chance at most. At Cautious the values drop dramatically for some, down to 20% threshold at the lowest, others remain as high as 70%. Below Cautious, you're in definite danger.

    Also interesting is that the war value for an AI is not at all dependent on the power ratio against the target. The only factors are what land the AI hopes to grab, and the attitude towards that civ. So again we might as well have 0 power rating, if we're not the juciest target in the area then we will go scot free anyway. I would also have guessed that things like potential wonder grabs would factor in here, but nope. So we can build as many wonders as we like, it won't make us a bigger target.

    Looking at the leaders in our vicinity, this is what we can say for sure:

    Asoka
    Asoka will never go to war with us at Pleased or above, and we are there already. If we were to drop to Cautious for some reason, the chance is 0.3*1/200 ~= 0.15% that he would consider declaring a total war on us at any given turn. But if he gets as far as that, it is definitely not improbable that there will be a "better" target for him, i.e. with a higher war value, since if he were to consider us then he would also consider all others that he is Cautious with and below, assuming they pass the power ratio test (and he is among the stronger). Again at Cautious, the chance that he would consider a limited war against us is 0.2*1/120 ~= 0.17%, with the same caveat about other targets.

    Elizabeth
    Lizzy would consider going to total war at Pleased, but the chance for that is 0.1*1/300 ~= 0.03% at any given turn, assuming she finds no better target. She wouldn't consider a limited war at all. At Cautious, the chance is 0.5*1/300 ~= 0.17% for a total war and 0.4*1/200 = 0.20% for a limited war. Note that these are (roughly) summed, so the total chance that she will consider a war each turn on Cautious is ~0.37% for either a total or limited war.

    Huayna Capac
    HC would not go for a limited war at Pleased, and the chance to consider a total war is 0.1*1/100=0.10% on any given turn. At Cautious, the chance is 0.5*1/100 = 0.50% for a total war and 0.4*1/80 = 0.50% for a limited war. On Annoyed, the chance is 0.9*1/100 = 0.90% for total war and 0.8*1/80 = 1% for a limited war, for any given turn. We are probably farther away than many other targets though, and he is Cautious with most that we know. Only caveat is that they must pass his power ratio test to be considered at all, and he is not among the stronger currently.

    Tokugawa
    The values for Toku to go to total war are exactly the same as HC's, he is slightly more eager to start limited wars though. At Cautious the chance for a limited war is 0.4*1/60 ~= 0.67% on any given turn. Note that this means that at Cautious, which he is currently at with us, the total chance is roughly 1.17%, or 1/85, that he will consider going to war with us on any given turn. His war value is likely higher with Lizzy though, she would have to be more than twice as far from him as we are for us to be considered first - but she is stronger than him, and his ratio values are 100 for all kinds of close wars. We are currently the only one (that we know) who are weaker than him, and thus his only valid target.

    Washington
    Washington is dangerous since he is the one most likely to find us the "most valuable" target, considering our long border. He will not go to war at all on Pleased though, so the faster we get there the better. At Cautious, his chances to consider a total war is 0.3*1/200 = 0.15%, and the chance to consider a limited war is 0.2*1/160 ~= 0.13%. So every turn at Cautious, the risk that he considers attacking us is ~0.28%, or roughly 1/360.


    Conclusions

    If you didn't read all the above, read this at least. To me, this says three things about our game.

    1) It is very important that we keep certain leaders at least Pleased, Washington in particular.

    2) We should keep an eye on Tokugawa, maybe even consider appeasing him in some way, despite his bad relations with Lizzy. She is the one who likes us the most right now anyway, and the least likely to attack us even if she didn't, and we could take a -1 worst enemy trade modifier with her at this point without dropping her below Pleased.

    3) We might as well not care about our power rating, it won't do us any good anyway, there's no way we can catch up to where it becomes a deterrent. So if we build military, it should be for actual defense, not for power rating purposes.
     
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  12. Niklas

    Niklas Fully Functional GOTM Staff

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    Well, that specific comment from me was meant to say that his borders are pushed back by culture from all directions - us, Asoka and Lizzy all steal workable tiles from him. Not even his capitol is safe, London is stealing tiles from it, including the wines, so his productivity is bound to be lower than that of most others. So I predict he will not be in the top half for much longer.
     
  13. ChrisShaffer

    ChrisShaffer Board gamer

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    Good research and quite interesting. So, it makes the question different:

    "Do we need military for defence or offense?"

    I think to be in the running for a medal, the answer is "No." So let's build infrastructure and take our chances.
     
  14. ChrisShaffer

    ChrisShaffer Board gamer

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    Why do we need the iron mined/roaded? We wouldn't want to trade/gift it. Are there any buildings/units that we plan to use that require it?

    If we don't need it yet, why not do something more useful, like a cottage on the riverside plains (we are financial) or chop forests and mine hills?
     
  15. Renata

    Renata homicidal jungle cat GOTM Staff

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    I don't know. I think the odds of us winding up at war with someone at some time in the game are pretty high, especially considering we will have civs annoyed at us eventually. Now although this is deity, the limited territory of the AIs makes it likely that we can match their production even with our single city. (Barring a single civ getting taking over several others.) That means that if we build enough military to beat back an AI's initial rush of units, we could probably hold out long enough to make peace. We should have very little to worry about with overseas civs in particular -- provided we do eventually build more than a cardboard defense. It's the civs on our own continent we really have to keep an eye on!

    I'm currently most worried about Tokugawa. Those 'cautious' values of his are scarily high. A total of about 1.17/100 might not sound like much, but if my math is right (and given that he probably doesn't have a better target), that means we could expect a war declaration about every 60 turns. I know statistics doesn't work that way to say we're "overdue", but folks, we're already 68 turns into the game.

    Huayna's not a pleasant prospect, either, given the paucity of targets thing. Washington I think we can handle -- a few more trades or one good gift should get him to pleased.

    How likely is it that we could get both Huayna and Tokugawa to pleased? How likely is it that we could do it without sacrificing our relationship with the other civs? If we do wind up in Judaism, we're facing -2 from Liz anyway, so I'm not sure we should add another negative modifier onto that just for the sake of a civ that might never be happy with us.

    I'm beginning to think that going without defense is a sucker's bet. Sure, *if we don't get attacked*, it's the fastest way to our goals. But how realistic is that? If it's completely unrealistic, and all the riskiest-playing civs wind up wiped out by somebody's puny invasion force, then the medals could well go to teams that played it safer and slower.

    How much defense would we have to build to be somewhat safe from annihilation? If we assume that pretty much every team is going to get attacked at some point (I'm not sure that's the case, but I'm starting to think it might be), then a well-defended invasion might not be a death knell to our chances. (Wars that come later in the game might even help us, diplomatically.) If we were to get attacked in the next ~50 turns, what sort of force would we be facing, and is it even possible at this point to build enough military to counter it? If it is, then maybe it's worth doing.

    I'd also like not to write off the idea of a PA win quite yet. It'd defnitely be slower, but if the diplo strategy ever seems to be doomed to failure, we're going to want to figure out how to change gears quickly. May as well do some thinking ahead of time about it. We do seem to have a ready-made PA partner in Asoka, providing we can get Judaism and he doesn't go to free religion at an inopportune time.
     
  16. Niklas

    Niklas Fully Functional GOTM Staff

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    Good discussion, keep the thoughts rolling!

    Toku's high Cautious values don't really say anything about his feelings towards us. Note that he is Pleased with HC at +1 already, but annoyed with Washington at +4. This is solely based on the iPeaceWeight modifiers for the respective leaders. Peacelovers don't like Warmongers and vice versa. But those factors only determine AI-AI relations, they won't come into play with us at all. Tokugawa and HC are both Warmonger leaders, and thus like each other well enough. The other three are extreme in the other direction, and that the two groups don't care much for each other is only to be expected.

    Of the hidden factors, we probably start at -1 with Tokugawa. He has a sorry attitude to begin with (BaseAttitude is -1), we're at Deity which is another -1, but we are both on the bottom half in rank so a +1 from Losers Unite. None of the other factors play in - we are even higher rank than Toku, though that doesn't matter since his iWorseRankAttitudeModifier is 0 anyway (surprised me a bit).

    So if we start at -1, we need to get him to +4 visible in order to have him Pleased. We're currently at +1 so that's another +3. If we ever got Judaism, that would help a lot. Until then, gifts is the only way we can hope for it.

    Note that gifts to a civ give double positive modifiers compared to what they give negative modifiers for that civ's enemies. So if we got +3 Fair Trade relations with Toku, that would still only be -1 with Lizzy. Also note that we will get another +1 with Lizzy from OB on turn 78, and a +1 from resource trade on turn 95. So I definitely think we can live with a -1 Rival Trade demerit for a while.

    In general, we need to stay afloat in the early game, and improve relations to just about the needed values towards the end. We don't need +20 with our friends, and only +10 if we want to keep trading with them, otherwise +3 is perfectly fine.

    I will dig into the calculations for how the AIs value trade and gifts, to see what kind of effect we could get from gifting e.g. Alphabet to Toku.
     
  17. Renata

    Renata homicidal jungle cat GOTM Staff

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    I'll be out most of tomorrow, just so you know. It doesn't sound like we'll be ready to play on by then anyway, but I didn't want to be skipped.
     
  18. Niklas

    Niklas Fully Functional GOTM Staff

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    I had a look in the code for trade/gift values. If Tokugawa is not researching Alphabet himself, and if he knows 8 civs of which 6 have the tech, then he will value Alphabet at 525 (gold equivalents). We have known him for 64 turns, so his trade stance towards us would be [525/(65*5)] ~= [1.6] = 1. If we gave him Maths as well, valued at 437 with the same provisions for number of civs known and knowing it, that's a total of [962/325] ~= [2.9] = 2. If one less of his contacts know either, it's enough to get us over 3, for now. But +2 should definitely be doable. We could possibly also gift him Priesthood next turn to get to +3.

    We met Lizzy on turn 7 so the negative numbers for her, assuming Toku really is her worst enemy (seems very likely), will be more or less exactly half. I.e. if we get +1 with Toku, that's nothing for Lizzy, but +2 or +3 with Toku means -1 with Lizzy.

    The AI's valuation of a tech is

    iResearchLeft * (1.5 + 1/2 * (iContacts - iKnownTo)/iContacts)

    So in the simple case where all his contacts know a tech, he will value it at 1.5 times the beakers he has left to research on it. If none of his contacts know the tech, he would theoretically value it at 2 times the research left, though that can't happen since he must know at least one who has it in order to be able to get it in the first place.
     
  19. Niklas

    Niklas Fully Functional GOTM Staff

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    Ok ok ok, sorry so sorry that I scared you (if I did).

    I made a stupid error, an oversight, in my calculations above. I'm not surprised that none of you spotted it either (so far at least) since it's easy to just accept a treatise like that at face value. So, think for a second - why are we not the least bit scared of Tokugawa?












    No guess?













    It's all in the phrase "reachable by land". I assumed that anyone who were on the same landmass as us would be able to reach us by land. That's not at all true, especially not for Tokugawa. Why not? Because he'd need Open Borders with Asoka or Washington first! And Toku being Toku, he's the only leader who would never sign OB with someone he wasn't pleased with. He just became Cautious with Asoka, meaning he needs to get to at least +8 visible before that happens.

    So, again, sorry I scared you. Toku is no threat, and won't be unless a miracle happens in his relations with Asoka. HC is a bit more of a threat, since he would consider signing OBs at Cautious, but we can start worrying if/when he does.

    So to get back to my conclusions from before - we don't need to build units for our power rating, and once we get Washington to Pleased (should happen within 5 turns) we won't need to worry about anyone attacking us from any direction. Well, almost, Lizzy could still attack us, but at 0.03%, or 1/3333 chance each turn, I'd rather not take any precautions regarding that.

    Let's skip our units and go crazy on infrastructure instead. We can start worrying about defense once Astronomy becomes well-known. Hey, we could even ditch our barracks, though at 44/60 hammers invested I think we might as well complete it. We will need it sooner or later after all.
     
  20. Niklas

    Niklas Fully Functional GOTM Staff

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    You're absolutely right, there's no reason for us not to switch horses and go for a PA win if we think a diplo win is doomed to fail. And Asoka definitely seems like the perfect partner.

    So, what would we need to be able to switch horses in stride, should it be needed? To sign a PA agreement, the AI must be friendly and the shared war counter plus the DP counter must be >40. DPs seem the safer way to go, especially since the AIs rarely stay at war for that long at a time.

    If we wanted to go all out on a PA, we would likely beeline for MilTrad for DPs after CS, and then beeline for Communism to get that PA as fast as possible. But since this is more of a backup for us, it seems reasonable to me that we keep heading for Mass Media at full speed. Hopefully Asoka will get MilTrad (it's enough for one of us to have it right?), and/or we can trade for it from someone. We might get the PA a bit later than otherwise, but not too late to have a chance for a win.

    If we go for a late-game PA win, would space be a reasonable option? It's highly unlikely that any AI can run off to a domination win with these settings, and in Vanilla no AI will ever win by culture. That leaves a space or diplo win, and if we will have a hard time winning by diplo then that's nothing against how hard it will be for an AI to do the same. So aiming to be the first to go to space, together with our PA partner, seems the sensible thing to me. Especially since all our economy will be geared towards research anyway.
     

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