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SGOTM 07 - Smurkz

Discussion in 'Civ4 - Succession GOTM' started by AlanH, Apr 17, 2008.

  1. Niklas

    Niklas Fully Functional GOTM Staff

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    I just realized that Industrious civs get "Double production speed of Forge". Very nice! Does that truly mean "Double", or does it mean +100%?
     
  2. Renata

    Renata homicidal jungle cat GOTM Staff

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    Just checking in. No comments this evening (too tired), but I'm prepared to play up to GL tomorrow if there's a consensus on the spreadsheet.
     
  3. Methos

    Methos HoF Quattromaster Super Moderator Hall of Fame Staff

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    Whoops, I forgot to say I was going to be gone for the weekend. Oh well, I'm back and apparently have several pages to catch up on! :eek: and :thumbsup:
     
  4. Niklas

    Niklas Fully Functional GOTM Staff

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    Since no one has spoken against it, I think it's safe to assume that we have a consensus on the latest spreadsheet. So get us that GLib! :)

    Methos, you did say you would be gone. But yeah, go play catch up. :D
     
  5. zyxy

    zyxy Warmongering Fool

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    Yeah, sheet looks good. Good luck, Miss Renata!
     
  6. Renata

    Renata homicidal jungle cat GOTM Staff

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    Ok, I need to get some lunch arranged, then I'll play.
     
  7. Niklas

    Niklas Fully Functional GOTM Staff

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    Are we there yet? :bounce: ;)
     
  8. Renata

    Renata homicidal jungle cat GOTM Staff

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    There have been some developments, so I'm stopping a couple turns in. The biggies are that HC went Jewish on the first interturn, and Liz has a missionary in our territory. Here are my comments:

    68 (1280) Poly+Masonry to HC for Sailing. Poly to Washington. Cows to Asoka. Washington goes to +2 on the trade thing, still Cautious. Workers stopped, to be sent to river hill.


    IBT: HC is Jewish! Elizabeth is still cautious with him despite the added -1, not sure about in five turns. HC has an immediate -2 with her for a net of zero (cautious). All the more reason for me to stop at the GL, as we may need to choose between them on that turn.

    Wasington has Monarchy, Elizabeth has CoL, and Asoka/Huayna have Calendar. Asoka is the only one who'll trade.


    69 (1240)nWorkers chop. HC has a couple of archers in our territory.

    IBT: Oh, no! Elizabeth has a missionary in our territory, probably headed for Beijing. HC would now trade calendar. We can't get it for Alphabet + Priesthood, but maybe for Lit. Do we want it?
     
  9. Niklas

    Niklas Fully Functional GOTM Staff

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    Hmm, tricky, good of you to stop. We obviously need to think on the consequences of this. Could you upload the save? I'll be off for a few hours, back with more comments later.
     
  10. Renata

    Renata homicidal jungle cat GOTM Staff

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    Sure thing.
     

    Attached Files:

  11. Niklas

    Niklas Fully Functional GOTM Staff

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    Ok, just thinking out loud here.

    We have two options. Either we let Beijing be smitten with Confusion, or we cancel OB with Lizzy immediately. Obviously both have consequences. If we get Confusion in Beijing, we can no longer become Judaist through "natural spread", but will have to wait until someone deigns to send us a missionary. Since we don't want to switch to Confusion, this could also mean (quite likely) that Lizzy will come to call and ask us to switch to it, which would give us demerits with her when we refuse. Cancelling OB obviously gives us demerits right away, or rather it removes one of the pluses that we already have (as well as the one we would expect to get on turn 78). She will likely still be pleased with us though, but getting her to friendly later might be more difficult. But with current development on the religious front, it may well be that we could get the whole continent to join in a righteous (relation-building) crusade (star-ade?) later on, which would remove her from the picture anyway.

    I think it would be useful to know what the chances of natural spread actually are, if we are to make an informed decision. I'll go dig.

    Speaking of OB, both Asoka and Washington is now +1 with us from that, as expected. It's strange though that Washington is still only Cautious with us, I can't quite get the hidden factors to match up there. But we should get the +1 from resource trade on turn 74 (or thereabout). Or we could gift him Literature right away and be sure, he won't beat us to GLib now anyway.

    Literature is far cheaper than Calendar so there's no way we're going to get that trade. Now big deal though, we have no use for it right now anyway, and not in a long time - not until we're ready to go for Astronomy.
     
  12. Renata

    Renata homicidal jungle cat GOTM Staff

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    When you cancel open borders, doesn't it also result in the AI refusing to talk for quite a while? Or am I thinking of something else?
     
  13. Niklas

    Niklas Fully Functional GOTM Staff

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    Quick question: How large is a tiny map?

    Renata, they only refuse to talk if you cancel all trade because someone else asks you to. ("You stopped trading with us!")
     
  14. Renata

    Renata homicidal jungle cat GOTM Staff

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    Ok, cool. And I have no idea.
     
  15. Niklas

    Niklas Fully Functional GOTM Staff

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    Ok, I found it - in the XML it says that a Tiny map is 13x8, but that obviously isn't true. But there's an extra factor of 4x4, which means a Tiny map is 52x32 plots. That's good to know for the future too.

    Checking religion spread chances, they are quite small. And surprisingly, chances are completely deterministic in which religion that could spread to us. With the Shrine in India, and assuming it is 10 tiles away (we don't know which city has it), the chance each turn that we will attract Judaism is 11/1000, or 1.1%. The chance that we attract Confucianism is 0, unless Lizzy builds her Shrine in London (seems unlikely that's her holy city though), in which case the chance becomes 18/1000 to get Confucianism instead, and 0 to become Judaist.

    I think we can forget about natural spread for now, and instead hope for missionaries. Then the question becomes, do we allow Lizzy's missionary or not? Disregarding the 1.1% spread chance, I actually only see one negative of letting her infect us, and that's the demerit we would get from her when we deny to accept her religion. But that's -1, compared to the +2 we get from OB. So I would let her get in, and keep praying that Asoka sends us a missionary soon.
     
  16. Niklas

    Niklas Fully Functional GOTM Staff

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    Another benefit - we get +1 culture per turn, which increases our pressure on the Furs. Not that I think we'll need it anymore, since NY's borders still haven't expanded.

    I propose we let her in. Anyone of a different opinion?
     
  17. Renata

    Renata homicidal jungle cat GOTM Staff

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    What about HC, though? With him now Jewish, odds are good that we can cultivate him as a friend in the longer term -- plus, we won't have to worry about him ever being worst enemies with Asoka/Washington/Tokugawa. However, I'm guessing he will shortly (three more turns) be annoyed with Elizabeth, which would make her his worst enemy (and possibly vice versa, not sure), which could lead to a demand that we stop trading, among other bad things. We could rack up quite a lot of negatives with HC if we keep on being friendly to Elizabeth -- and unlike Tokugawa, HC will have land access to us for war purposes, since Asoka and Washington won't dislike him. Of course, they won't dislike Elizabeth either, not enough anyway. But at least Elizabeth's less likely to attack.
     
  18. Niklas

    Niklas Fully Functional GOTM Staff

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    Hmm, a valid concern certainly. The reasoning here and now would then be that since it might be difficult or impossible to stay friends with Lizzy down the line anyway, staying friends with her now has less of a value, and then the 1.1% spread chance would be more worth. I'm not fully convinced though, 1.1% is awfully little, and I think the chances are much greater for an Indian missionary to reach us. And until HC becomes Annoyed with Lizzy, she can't be his worst enemy, and until then we can still be friends with both. Annoyed requires -3, but there are hidden factors of course.

    I could go either way. Confucianism doesn't seem to do us any harm though, except removing the 1.1% factor, even if it won't do us much good either. And I think that keeping the OB with Lizzy for now gives us maximal flexibility in diplomacy for later.
     
  19. Renata

    Renata homicidal jungle cat GOTM Staff

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    I'd like to see what other teammates have to say. I'm out of time to play today anyway (though I'll probably be able to check in to see what people are saying), so I'll have to finish tomorrow.
     
  20. Niklas

    Niklas Fully Functional GOTM Staff

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    I agree, we should wait to hear what the others have to say. Sigh, the suspense, I really want to know if we get that GLib in time...
     

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