SGOTM 07 - Smurkz

Renata · Jul 26, 2008

Played five turns, stopped after we got a great artist instead of the expected scientist on turn 155 because I wasn't sure what trades needed to be made in order to let the artist bulb part of radio. (The current option is monotheism.

) Plus our science total will be off, so the spreadsheet will need re-working.

Pardon a lack of comments; I'm exhausted.

Spoiler the log :

As I mentioned inside the spoiler tags, there was a crash right at the end. I replayed the part-turn (just a grenadier move -- I'm certain I wound up in the same place; not positive I took the same path) and saved, but I'm still hoping to find the HOF "save on exit" save if anyone knows where that gets stashed. For now, I'll link what I have, in case anyone wants to take a look at the current situation. If anyone knows where to find the other version and can tell me, I'll link that one instead in the morning, assuming that's what AlanH would like me to do.

Methos · Jul 26, 2008

Renata said:
I'm still hoping to find the HOF "save on exit" save if anyone knows where that gets stashed.

The 'save on exit' save will be located in your default path. For instance, mine saves to \Documents\My Games\Sid Meier's Civilization 4\Saves\single. Note, the name the file is saved under will not be under Smurkz or anything relating to SGOTM. Instead, it'll be something similar to Qin_Dei_Tin_ with a bunch more gibberish added on to that. Check the timestamp on the file to make sure, as there will possibly be a second one since you replayed from the crash point.

As we discussed via PM, it might be wise to give AlanH both saves and let him decide. Either way, I suggest we wait for AlanH's reply before playing on.

Niklas · Jul 26, 2008

Looks very good. :thumbsup:

Except for Saladin's apparent slowdown in growth. But he grew quite heavily during the turns preceding these, so it may be that a bunch of his towns will grow in parallel in a few turns.

The reason the GA can't bulb Radio is simply that we don't have Electricity yet. Radio comes before Monotheism in the preference list so that won't be an issue.

I'll have a look at the save in a bit.

Renata · Jul 26, 2008

@ Methos: that's weird; there's nothing like that in my /Saves/single folder. (And there should be; that is my default, and everything else goes there.) The last file, time-stamp-wise, is the manual save I made in 880 AD. Do those saves not get made if the reason for the exit is something abrupt like a crash (or in my case, a shouln't-have-been-awake-at-that-hour kidlet pushing the power button)? At any rate, AlanH said the replayed file was ok to use.

Niklas, what you say about the GA is brilliantly obvious now that I've had some sleep.

I may be able to play a couple more turns in the next several hours; after that I wouldn't be able to play until Thursday, so I'll upload whatever I have.

Niklas · Jul 26, 2008

Saladin now has Chemistry, and thus Frigates of his own... And Cathy will no longer consider attacking him. Let's hope this won't be our downfall... :shifty:

Other than that, things look good. Kublai is sinking in Power pretty seriously, he's now below us in the graph, and JC keeps rising. Karakorum has dropped to size 11, a sign that there are Roman units on the tiles surrounding it. He would now talk peace with us, but I see no reason to do that while we're still at war with Toku, there's no real gain to it.

We could sign a DP with Cyrus, simply for protection against Saladin, assuming we can end the war against Toku. Let's hope that won't be our downfall... :shifty:

Freddy would trade us Constitution + 90 gold for Scientific Method + Liberalism/Economics. SM is not a monopoly, we've already traded it to Asoka, so I think we should take him up on that. I favor Economics over Liberalism, since more people know the former. Freddy would also include War against Tokugawa in that deal for no extra cost. I really don't see why not, there's no real risk involved in it (FLW).

Lizzy will become Friendly with us on turn 163. That gives us yet another friend to call on for military purposes, and of course trading. Cyrus would have become Friendly with us on that same turn, except we plan to revolt to HR on turn 162 - pity, but no big deal. A DP might get him there anyway, and I'm beginning to like that idea... :shifty:

HC doesn't have Printing Press. Renata, did you mean to say some other tech, or some other person, or did you simply not press OK?

Niklas · Jul 26, 2008

Renata said:
Do those saves not get made if the reason for the exit is something abrupt like a crash (or in my case, a shouln't-have-been-awake-at-that-hour kidlet pushing the power button)?

Umm, yes. How could it create a save when the computer no longer has power?

It only creates saves on manual exit.

I have my HOF mod set to create saves on start and end of turn too, knowing my computer is prone to crashes every now and then.

Renata · Jul 26, 2008

I should set that, too, given that my computer is prone to toddler.

I thought maybe it would save, because my computer does do an orderly shut-down of a lot of running programs when it's powered off in that way. It even asked me if I wanted to save the spreadsheet I had open. But I guess CIV isn't integrated well enough into the Microsoft Borg to manage the same thing.

I'm okay with the trade with Freddy, including the war declaration (except I think I'll leave him his 90 gold for upgrades) and will re-do the gift to HC (no idea what happened there).

A DP with Cyrus wouldn't replace the favored civic bonuses we're getting, but I still think it's worth doing if/when we can.

Renata · Jul 26, 2008

The Save, 960 AD

I saved just after we got electricity, due to JC ridding us of the Mongol annoyance. Much to discuss.

Spoiler the autolog, with comments :

More comments when I get the chance. Have fun, whoever plays next!

Niklas · Jul 26, 2008

Hah, take that you Mongol bastard, that's what happens when you mess with China! :hammer:

Since unkle had to decline yet again, I guess I'm up. Got it!

But we should look over our situation before I play on. 34 turns to go now...

Niklas · Jul 26, 2008

Breakdown on tech trades, turn 158:

Those that must get +1 ST

Washington (10):
- Writing (58)
- Alphabet (60)
- Polytheism (68)
- Literature (86)
- Code of Laws (86)
- Philosophy (107)
- Civil Service (107)
- Paper (120)
- Engineering (120)
- Chemistry (142)
- Banking (150)
- Printing Press (155)
Summary: 12 techs traded, that should definitely be safe for +1 until the end. But if the chance appears, no reason not to give him something more.

Caesar (10):
- Literature (110)
- Music (127)
- Paper (132)
- Education (137)
- Liberalism (138)
- Banking (139)
- Gunpowder (139)
- Chemistry (142)
- Replaceable Parts (155)
Summary: 9 techs traded, decay from 110 (likely 1). 2 more should do it.

Those that we have a good chance of getting to +1 ST

Mansa (5):
- Music (132)
- Guilds (132)
- Banking (135)
- Economics (150)
- Chemistry (150)
- Replaceable Parts (155)
- Scientific Method (157)
Summary: 7 techs traded, decay from 132 (0 so far, likely 0). We're at +1 now, and 3-4 more techs would bring us to +2.

Frederick (7):
- Civil Service (97)
- Drama (97)
- Philosophy (107)
- Compass (107)
- Astronomy (144)
- Gunpowder (152)
- Chemistry (153)
- Scientific Method (155)
- Economics (155)
- Replaceable Parts (155)
Summary: 10 techs traded, decay from 97 (0 so far). At +1 now which will definitely stay to the end, 4-5 more techs would give us +2. We don't need it though.

Cathy (7):
- Gunpowder (142)
Summary: 1 tech traded, decay from 142 (likely 0). 6 more would do, but that would give RT demerits with Hatty and Mansa. We may not care about the former, and we have margins with the latter.

HC (10):
- Polytheism (68)
- Masonry (68)
- Literature (97)
- Drama (97)
- Philosophy (107)
- Paper (132)
- Engineering (132)
- Printing Press (155)
- Replaceable Parts (157)
- Scientific Method (157)
Summary: 10 techs traded, decay from 68 (at least 1 so far). 2 more techs until the end should keep us on the safe side.

Lizzy (needs 7):
- Alphabet (58)
- Drama (97)
- Paper (120)
- Liberalism (132)
- Replaceable Parts (155)
- Scientific Method (157)
Summary: 6 techs traded, decay from 58 (likely 2). 3 more should see us safe to the end. 1-2 more might even bring her to Friendly (she'll be there in 5 turns regardless).

Those that are possible but unlikely:

Cyrus (10):
- Paper (119)
- Philosophy (119)
- Banking (132)
- Education (139)
- Scientific Method (157)
Summary: 5 techs traded, decay from 119 (likely 1). 6 more would be needed, and he's the runner-up for tech leader. Also not something we really need to strive for.

Hatty (10):
- Drama (119)
- Guilds (138)
- Education (138)
Summary: 3 techs traded, decay from 119 (likely 1). Needs 8 more, and doing that would give RT demerits with Cathy. We probably ditch her.

Louis (10):
- Engineering (132)
- Paper (155)
Summary: 2 techs traded, decay from 132 (likely 0). Needs another 8, not totally impossible but we shouldn't need it.

Niklas · Jul 26, 2008

Frederick:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +1 BR, +4 FT, +1 ST, +1 Help = +10
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +1 OB = +4
Cathy: -3 Hidden, not a problem
Saladin: -2 Hidden, not a problem
Potential problem: No. We've let off the resource trade, no need to waste it on him. Might even get another ST bonus. He's ours though.

Cyrus:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +1 Help = +8
Cyrus: Doh.
Cathy: 0 Hidden, shouldn't be a problem.
Saladin: 0 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR = +5
Potential problem: If he's not our opponent, then he will vote for us now, thanks to asking for help. We also have a trade running that could result in +1 BR in the end. Well on our way to +1 ST as well.

Washington:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 ST, -1 CB = +8
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +1 OB = +4
Cathy: -3 Hidden, not a problem
Saladin: -3 Hidden, not a problem.
Potential problem: No. We already have him at +8, and nothing will change until the end.

Asoka:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 Help = +10
Cyrus: +4 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +7
Cathy: +1 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +4
Saladin: +1 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +4
Potential problem: No.

Lizzy:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +5 Civic, +1 BR, +1 ST, -1 RH = +13
Cyrus: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 Civic = +12
Cathy: -2 Hidden, not a problem.
Saladin: -2 Hidden, not a problem.
Potential problem: If Cyrus wants that +4 Civic bonus, he needs to go FR within 3 turns. Shouldn't be a problem no matter what.

Mansa:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +2 ST, +5 Civic = +14
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 Civic = +11
Cathy: Below 0
Saladin: -3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +5 Religion, +5 Civic, +2 BR = +12
Potential problem: Trading with Cathy will generate RT demerits. We desperately need him to go FR.

Cathy:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +4 Civic, +1 Help = +12
Cyrus: -1 Hidden, not a problem
Cathy: Doh.
Saladin: +5 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 Civic, -4 Heathens = +10
Potential problem: If Saladin is the opponent and she goes for FR, and Saladin doesn't leave HR. Unless we can get her to attack him, or send some resources her way.

Louis:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +4 FT, +2 OB, +1 BR, +4 Civic = +11
Cyrus: -5 hidden, not a problem
Cathy: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +4 Civic, +2 OB, +2 BR, -1 Declare on Friend = +10
Saladin: +1 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 Civic = +8
Potential problem: We need him into FR. Paris has been Confused already, he just needs Liberalism.

HC:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +1 BR, +4 FT, +4 Civic, -1 Declared on Friend = +10
Cyrus: -1 Base, not a problem.
Cathy: +4 Hidden, +1 Peace, +5 Civic, +1 OB, -3 Heathens = +8
Saladin: +4 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +5 Civic, -3 Heathens = +9
Potential problem: If Cathy goes FR, she might get his vote. Saladin is highly unlikely to go FR, and might ditch HR. We've sent some resources his way, giving at least +1 BR in the end.

JC:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 ST, -1 RST = +8
Cyrus: -1 Hidden, not a problem
Cathy: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, -2 Heathens = +4
Saladin: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +6
Potential problem: Unless we screw up so we don't get his vote, then no.

Hatty:
Us: +1 Peace, +4 FT, +2 OB, +3 Civic, -1 RT = +9
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +1 BR = +6
Cathy: Below 0, declared on twice...
Saladin: -3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +6 Religion, +3 Civics = +11
Potential problem: Cathy is worth a lot more to us than Hatty, and we can't really afford the RT demerits that Cathy will generate. So she's likely lost to us, but I'll keep her at Magenta since we might want to keep an eye on her regardless.

Note that Lizzy has been promoted to Green.

Summary of potential problems:
If Cyrus is our opponent: Mansa, getting enough votes.
If Cathy is our opponent: HC, getting enough votes.
If Saladin is our opponent: Cathy(!)

Still not taking potential Rank modifiers towards us into account. We also hope some will ask us for help, and that they refrain from asking us to stop trading with their sandbox rivals.

Niklas · Jul 26, 2008

New overview of pop/votes for turn 158 (without spoilers for easy finding):

Cyrus: 62 (+2)
Saladin: 61 (+3)
Cathy: 55 (+1)
Caesar: 37 (+13) (note that this assumes that Karakorum is pop 10)
Louis: 29 (+0)
Lizzy: 29 (+1)
Monty: 28 (+1)
Asoka: 26 (+0)
Alex: 26 (+0)
Frederick: 25 (+1)
Hatty: 25 (+2)
HC: 23 (+1)
Mansa: 18 (+0)
Us: 16 (+0)
Izzy: 14 (+1)
Washington: 12 (-2)
Toku: 8 (+0)
Kublai: 0 (-13)

Total: 494

494 * 0.62 = 307 votes needed at current pop levels.

If Saladin is our opponent, and all the Blues and Greens vote for us, we have 332 votes, 25 more than needed. And that's already counting Hatty for lost. If Cathy doesn't vote for us, but Hatty does, we'd be 5 votes short, which population relocations should take care of.

If Cyrus is our opponent, we have 270 votes without Hatty, and 295 votes with her (which shouldn't be impossible since we don't have to please Cathy so much). Some more population relocations would be in order then.

If Cathy is our opponent, the story is very similar to what it's like if Cyrus is, only minor tweaks in numbers. Hatty is assured in that scenario. This seems increasingly unlikely to happen though.

I would also like to note that Saladin passed Cyrus in Crop Yield a while back, and is now making more total food than Cyrus. He should overtake Cyrus, and it should happen within the next 33 turns.

Renata · Jul 27, 2008

So it looks as if population relocations would be a fine idea, no matter who we think we'll be up against. (Though it does seem as if the only way for Cathy to be our opponent is if she takes out Hatty soon-ish. And there's no advantage to us for Cathy as an opponent over anyone else (right?), so I'd just as soon we try to avoid that happening, just to simplify things a bit.)

At any rate --

I think it's pretty much decided that we're going to try to sign Lizzy (and maybe also Washington) against Alexander as soon as Lizzy gets to Friendly with us. Is this a correct assumption? I can't remember who Alex's friends are -- would there be any risk to us joining the war if one of them asks us to, or do we have to say no? (Along the same lines, I can't remember if Alex has or hasn't met Cathy and Cyrus.) Asoka might also join, but he's gassed at the moment. (Though he does have Rifling now :mischief:

.)

Other re-location possibilities: As stated, Caesar would go against Toku, Isabella, or both if we asked. (He'd also go against Alex, but we have plenty of other candidates for that job.) Having him take on both could get slightly risky in terms of population (in other words, it'd put him up in Cathy/Cyrus/Saladin company). He's currently at about 37, and could conceivably see another 8-10 pop in his current cities before the end of the game. Kyoto outside of Japan's hands would be absolutely crushed on land by the culture of Delhi and Hamburg, but I'm not sure about the two clams. Would Asoka get them, or would they belong to a post-resistance Kyoto? I tried to figure this out before, but I'm not sure how many expansions Delhi would have had. I can't remember how swamped a post-Spanish Madrid would be. In any case, these two cities would probably not retain their current population, but they'd still add something to Caesar's total -- maybe 12-17ish? So we'd be looking at anywhere from 57 to 64 population for Caesar at the end of the game if he takes both cities, probably not enough to overtake Cyrus or Saladin. Unless he gets Biology. (And there's of course the same risk as with any war if Caesar asks us to join him against Izzy.)

On the other continent, it seems to be a choice between Cathy and Hatty, and the choice would seem to be a simple one: Cathy is much more valuable. I didn't let her share in any of the tech gifts I was handing out in my turnset due to the Hatty question, but my instinct says to just give her what she needs and ditch Hatty. Either Monty or Louis would be willing to declare on her right now. Louis would be preferred as a candidate for taking Hatty's cities, for obvious reasons, but the usual war caveats apply.

Finally, we're already at war with Tokugawa; I think we should stay at war with him either until he's dead or until we're certain we're not going to try anymore to make him that way -- we don't want to risk any more negatives with HC.

Niklas · Jul 28, 2008

I had a nightmare last night about how suddenly Hatty grew unexpectedly to become the top rival, everyone loved her, and we all couldn't understand how we hadn't seen all her other towns before... Am I thinking too much about this game? :crazyeye:

More coherent thoughts later on today.

Renata · Jul 28, 2008

I think that belongs in the "You know you've been playing too much CIV when ..." thread.

Methos · Jul 28, 2008

Renata said:
I think that belongs in the "You know you've been playing too much CIV when ..." thread.

Agree with Renata. :lol:

Niklas · Jul 29, 2008

Updating bonus resources for turn 158, with 34 turns to go:

Asoka: 127 (0) (expected +1 at the end, needs 4 more turns for +2)
Washington: 121 (1) (Needs 7 more turns for +2 at the end)
Lizzy: 37 (1) (needs 24 more turns for +1 at the end)
Fred: 85 (0) (expected to be at 51 at end, thus +1)
JC: 68 (1)
Saladin: 60 (2) (we only do this to boost him)
Louis: 47 (1) (needs 19 more turns for +1 at the end)
Cyrus: 16 (1)
HC: 2 (2)

I think I know how to move on, and I might play later today, or possibly tomorrow morning. Do we have an up-to-date spreadsheet?

Niklas · Jul 29, 2008

Both One Short Straw and Gypsy Kings have posted saves for 1320 AD, aka turn 192, aka our expected winning turn. I'm not sure if our victory actually comes on turn 192 or turn 193, but it seems clear that we will beat both regardless of which. Team CRC hasn't posted any more saves in ages, and I'm wondering if they will even complete the game. So if all goes according to plan :shifty:

, we're looking at a second place...

Renata · Jul 29, 2008

Post 1055 is the latest spreadsheet. It needs to be updated for the loss of the expected GS and the gain of the GA Radio bulb. Plus the city builds are different, with only two workers having been built (instead of three) and rifling now available.

Good luck!

Niklas · Jul 29, 2008

Thanks, I took it and modified it, and it appears that our lucky GA saves us a full turn on Mass Media.

A thought - Steel will likely be out there fairly soon, and I would like to build a few Catapults for upgrading once we get it. Cannons rock, that's the simple truth. If we had a few Cannons waiting around at home, I would be much much less worried about an attack from some unsavory brute (*coughsaladincough*). I would want to build Rifle->Cat->Cat during my turnset. Any one of a different opinion?

Looking at what techs that may appear on the table in the near future, all of them are such that we'd really like to have them. Corporation is already out there and gives us an extra trade route, that's a massive boost to research, giving us more leeway. Steel gives us Cannons and Ironclads. Steam Power boosts worker speed, and reveals coal (useful if we have it in BFC only). Biology needs no presentation, and even though we'll have little use of it for ourselves, it can selectively boost whoever we want to boost. Military Tradition allows us DPs with anyone, just not the ones with Military Tradition. Democracy and Communism are fairly useless to us though. Artillery, Assembly Line (Infantry!) and Railroad would also be useful, if we ever get that far...

I guess what I wanted to say is that I'll continue to be vigilant for trades, and remind us all what benefits there are to find out there.

SGOTM 07 - Smurkz

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