SGOTM 07 - Smurkz

[Niklas]

Why do I always have to be the one who comes reporting some major problem??

Spoiler :

Turn 158/460 (960 AD) [30-Jul-2008 13:59:17]
Julius Caesar(Rome) declares war on Tokugawa(Japan)
Julius Caesar(Rome) declares war on Isabella(Spain)
Niklas: Give Caesar Rifling + Physics for warring against Izzy and Toku.
Niklas: We're at +1 ST with Caesar now
Niklas: Raphael bulbs 1032 towards Radio.
Niklas: Resign Copper-for-Fish deal with Cyrus, getting +4 gpt

IBT:
Attitude Change: Montezuma(Aztec) towards Louis XIV(France), from 'Pleased' to 'Friendly'
Attitude Change: Julius Caesar(Rome) towards Tokugawa(Japan), from 'Cautious' to 'Annoyed'
Attitude Change: Julius Caesar(Rome) towards Isabella(Spain), from 'Cautious' to 'Annoyed'
Attitude Change: Hatshepsut(Egypt) towards Saladin(Arabia), from 'Friendly' to 'Pleased'
Attitude Change: Asoka(India) towards Julius Caesar(Rome), from 'Pleased' to 'Cautious'
Attitude Change: Elizabeth(England) towards Louis XIV(France), from 'Annoyed' to 'Cautious'
Attitude Change: Cyrus(Persia) towards Asoka(India), from 'Pleased' to 'Friendly'
Attitude Change: Cyrus(Persia) towards Saladin(Arabia), from 'Pleased' to 'Friendly'
Attitude Change: Mansa Musa(Mali) towards Huayna Capac(Inca), from 'Cautious' to 'Annoyed'
Attitude Change: Tokugawa(Japan) towards Julius Caesar(Rome), from 'Annoyed' to 'Furious'
Attitude Change: Huayna Capac(Inca) towards Hatshepsut(Egypt), from 'Cautious' to 'Annoyed'
Attitude Change: Huayna Capac(Inca) towards Isabella(Spain), from 'Pleased' to 'Cautious'
Attitude Change: Louis XIV(France) towards Saladin(Arabia), from 'Friendly' to 'Pleased'
Attitude Change: Isabella(Spain) towards Julius Caesar(Rome), from 'Cautious' to 'Annoyed'
Civics Change: Saladin(Arabia) from 'Hereditary Rule' to 'Representation'

Turn 159/460 (980 AD) [30-Jul-2008 14:16:12]
Niklas: Saladin has Steel, but of course won't trade it.
Niklas: Scary.
Niklas: Trade route to Tenochtitlan now +10
Niklas: Cyrus has Liberalism, no reason not to trade it to Mansa then.
Niklas: Problem - Cyrus won't consider adopting FR!
Niklas: Will only be a problem if he's our opponent though.
Niklas: I'll take that back - it will be a MAJOR problem, since Saladin just switched to Representation.
Niklas: I spread Confusion in Susa, but no avail.
Niklas: Sell Education to Louis cheaply, we need him in FR too...
Niklas: Not much we can do right now, I'll play up to 161 when it's time to revolt
Beijing's borders expand
Beijing finishes: Grenadier

IBT:
Attitude Change: Frederick(Germany) towards Tokugawa(Japan), from 'Annoyed' to 'Furious'
Attitude Change: Montezuma(Aztec) towards Louis XIV(France), from 'Friendly' to 'Pleased'
Attitude Change: Mansa Musa(Mali) towards Saladin(Arabia), from 'Pleased' to 'Friendly'
Attitude Change: Mansa Musa(Mali) towards Huayna Capac(Inca), from 'Annoyed' to 'Cautious'
Attitude Change: Alexander(Greece) towards Asoka(India), from 'Cautious' to 'Annoyed'
Attitude Change: Catherine(Russia) towards Asoka(India), from 'Pleased' to 'Cautious'
Attitude Change: Huayna Capac(Inca) towards Hatshepsut(Egypt), from 'Annoyed' to 'Cautious'
Attitude Change: Huayna Capac(Inca) towards Asoka(India), from 'Pleased' to 'Cautious'
Attitude Change: Huayna Capac(Inca) towards Isabella(Spain), from 'Cautious' to 'Pleased'
Civics Change: Asoka(India) from 'Hereditary Rule' to 'Representation'

Turn 160/460 (1000 AD) [30-Jul-2008 14:30:58]
Beijing begins: Rifleman (5 turns)
Niklas: Nothing new on the trade front
Niklas: Gift Liberalism to Louis, and... no, he won't consider switching either, despite his 4 different religions!

IBT:
Attitude Change: Isabella(Spain) towards Mansa Musa(Mali), from 'Cautious' to 'Annoyed'
Civics Change: Alexander(Greece) from 'Vassalage' to 'Bureaucracy'

Turn 161/460 (1010 AD) [30-Jul-2008 14:43:54]
Niklas: This is where we would revolt to HR, but I'll stop here for discussion.

Neither Cyrus nor Louis would consider adopting FR, despite having 4(!) religions each. Mansa won't either, with only 2. I have no idea why, I've dug through the code and there is nothing at all that gives that this would happen. I'm totally at a loss. Cyrus would also not consider switching to Caste System, so it's not that he wants his religion left. He would also not consider switching to Free Market, despite being in Decentralization. I just can't believe this.

This of course makes our chances to be elected pretty darn rotten. Maybe not impossible, but most definitely harder. We'll have to think long and hard about how to proceed from here.

 

[Niklas]

In other news, Saladin is now the largest nation, at 63 pop against Cyrus' 62. Looks like our opponent is decided.

 

[Niklas]

Frederick:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +1 BR, +4 FT, +1 ST, +1 Help = +10
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +1 OB = +4
Cathy: -3 Hidden, not a problem
Saladin: -2 Hidden, not a problem
Potential problem: No.

Washington:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 ST, -1 CB, +1 Losers Unite = +9
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +1 OB = +4
Cathy: -3 Hidden, not a problem
Saladin: -3 Hidden, not a problem.
Potential problem: No.

Asoka:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 Help, +1 Rank = +11
Cyrus: +4 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +7
Cathy: +1 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +4
Saladin: +1 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +4
Potential problem: No.

Lizzy:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +5 Civic, +1 BR, +1 ST, -1 RH = +13
Cyrus: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +3 Civic = +11
Cathy: -2 Hidden, not a problem.
Saladin: -2 Hidden, not a problem.
Potential problem: No.

Cathy:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +4 Civic, +1 Help = +12
Cyrus: -1 Hidden, not a problem
Cathy: Doh.
Saladin: +5 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, -4 Heathens = +6
Potential problem: Saladin adopted HR, which means suddenly it's Cyrus that's the problem and not Cathy. Even if Cathy goes FR now, we get her vote. We may not even need to get her to +4 FT, which means less RT demerits with Mansa and Hatty.

Louis:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +4 FT, +2 OB, +1 BR, +4 Civic = +11
Cyrus: -5 hidden, not a problem
Cathy: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +4 Civic, +2 OB, +2 BR, -1 Declare on Friend = +10
Saladin: +1 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +6 Religion = +10
Potential problem: He won't adopt FR, but since Saladin left HR we should win the day regardless.

HC:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +1 BR, +4 FT, +4 Civic, -1 Declared on Friend, +1 Losers Unite = +11
Cyrus: -1 Base, not a problem.
Cathy: +4 Hidden, +1 Peace, +5 Civic, +1 OB, -3 Heathens = +8
Saladin: +4 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, -3 Heathens = +4
Potential problem: If Cathy goes FR, she might get his vote, if she's the opponent. Saladin is no longer a problem, having left HR.

JC:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 ST, -1 RST = +8
Cyrus: -1 Hidden, not a problem
Cathy: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +6
Saladin: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +6
Potential problem: We don't want him to get Constitution, to get Civic bonuses towards Saladin, at least not too early. He doesn't have Nationalism yet so there's good hope. We might also get a Shared War bonus with him in the end. We've been at war together for 21 turns now, and it's 31 turns left to the end. For the counter to be at or above 8 at the end, the shared war must continue for another 9 turns, not impossible. And we might go into more war later too (Alex?). A DP with him would also be a possibiliy, in case the wars end.

Hatty:
Us: +1 Peace, +4 FT, +2 OB, +3 Civic, -1 RT, +1 Losers Unite = +10
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +1 BR = +6
Cathy: Below 0, declared on twice...
Saladin: -3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +6 Religion = +8
Potential problem: Cathy is worth a lot more to us than Hatty, and we can't really afford the RT demerits that Cathy will generate. So she's likely lost to us, but I'll keep her at Magenta since we might want to keep an eye on her regardless.

Cyrus:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +1 BR, +1 ST, +1 Help, +1 Rank = +11
Cyrus: Doh.
Cathy: 0 Hidden, shouldn't be a problem.
Saladin: 0 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +5 Religion, +3 Civic = +13
Potential problem: Unless we can get him to adopt something other than Hinduism, we lose him if Saladin is our opponent. There's nothing at all for us to do in that case.

Mansa:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +2 ST, +5 Civic, -1 RT, +1 Losers Unite = +14
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +5 Religion, +3 Civic = +15
Cathy: Below 0
Saladin: -3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +5 Religion, +5 Civic, +2 BR = +12
Potential problem: Trading with Cathy will generate RT demerits, we have one already. He won't go FR. He will be tricky to get to our side if we face Saladin.

Note that Cathy has been promoted to Green, Hatty to Blue, and both Cyrus and Mansa demoted to Magenta.

Summary of potential problems:
If Cyrus is our opponent: Mansa, getting enough votes.
If Cathy is our opponent: HC, getting enough votes.
If Saladin is our opponent: Cyrus, Mansa.

Still not taking potential Rank modifiers towards us into account. Maybe it's time to start doing that, we could get bonuses for that from both Cyrus and Mansa. EDIT: Now updated to take rank into account.

 

[Niklas]

I need to do another one of these, in order to see how difficult this obstacle would be to overcome:

Saladin: 63 (+2)
Cyrus: 62 (+0)
Cathy: 55 (+0)
Caesar: 37 (+0) (assumes that Karakorum is pop 10)
Lizzy: 30 (+1)
Louis: 29 (+0)
Monty: 29 (+1)
Asoka: 26 (+0)
Alex: 26 (+0)
Frederick: 25 (+0)
Hatty: 25 (+0)
HC: 23 (+0)
Mansa: 18 (+0)
Us: 16 (+0)
Izzy: 14 (+0)
Washington: 12 (+0)
Toku: 8 (+0)

Total: 498

498 * 0.62 = 309 votes needed at current pop levels.

If Saladin is our opponent, which seems likely, and all the Blues and Greens vote for us, we have 278 votes, quite a few less than we need. So without Cyrus, we'd need something else. With Mansa but without Cyrus we'd have 296 votes, missing only 13. Should be doable with pop relocations. So we're not quite toast, even though getting Cyrus' vote must still be top priority.

If Cyrus is our opponent, we're actually worse off since Mansa would be pretty much impossible then.

If Cathy is our opponent, we should get Cyrus' and Mansa's votes but we'd lose Cathy's, and for her to get there would mean we lose Hatty's as well (her being conquered). So this option isn't really more appealing.

 

[Niklas]

For rank modifiers, I'm looking at the current situation:

1. Saladin
2. Cyrus (2)
3. Cathy
4. Asoka (3)
5. JC
6. Lizzy
7. Freddy (2)
8. Us
9. Louis
10. HC
11. Mansa (4)
12. Hatty (2)
13. Monty
14. Washington
15. Izzy
16. Alex
17. Toku
18. Kublai

Kublai is still in the list since all civs count, not only the living ones. The numbers in parenthesis are the iBetterRankModifier values for those that have a positive one. For those who have value 2, they would need to be 10 positions above us in order to get a +1 towards us. In other words, with Cyrus in second we need to be no better than 12th in rank. We can pretty easily get Louis, HC and even Mansa to pass us, by gifting them all techs we have. We could do the same for Hatty, but not if we want to be friends with Cathy. Would we gift Monty up? He is no one's WE so it should work.

Lower than 12th is very hard for us to get, so that should be our target. Asoka with 3 means we get +1 with him if he's 7 positions ahead of us, i.e. no worse than 5th. That shouldn't be a problem either, though we don't need it either. Mansa with 4 will get +1 towards us if he's 5 positions ahead, i.e. no worse than 7th. With his low population that's a bit tricker. Also, we would get that +1 anyway if he's in 10th or lower, thanks to Losers Unite. That means we don't want him in positions 8 or 9. If we're at position 12, we'd likely want the following list then, with the bonuses towards us specified for those we care about:

1. Saladin
2. Cyrus (+1)
3. Cathy
4. Asoka (+1)
5. JC
6. Lizzy
7. Freddy
8. Louis
9. Monty
10. HC (+1)
11. Mansa (+1)
12. Us
13. Hatty (+1)
14. Washington (+1)
15. Izzy
16. Alex
17. Toku
18. Kublai

The differences from above are that we've been passed by Louis, Monty, HC and Mansa, and that Monty has also passed the latter two. Doesn't seem impossible at all. I'll update post #1083 to take these things into account.

 

[Niklas]

Umm.....

I wonder if I haven't found a bug here. This can't possibly be the intended behavior, but I've verified that it's the same in BtS 3.13...

Anyway, I've tracked down the problem. The issue is that if an AI has adopted its favorite civic, it won't consider switching out of it upon your asking. At least that's what I've always thought it was, and that's how I've sloppily read the code. But the code specifies a different behavior - if the AI is in its favorite civic, it won't consider switching any civic upon your asking. It doesn't matter if they are in different civic categories, the AI still won't listen to you.

The down side of this is that there's no way we're going to get Cyrus, Mansa or Louis to switch to FR. But the upside is that there's nothing profound in it, it's just a stupid coding issue related only to civic switch trading. It's still fully possible (and even likely) that at least Cyrus and Louis will switch to FR (and FM) on their own accord. We just have no control over if/when that happens.

Since I don't really see any other way to go forward with this, I suggest I play on according to plan and we keep our fingers crossed. It should work (FLW).

 

[Niklas]

After some discussion with Renata on IM, we managed to plunge through the calculations for when an AI switches civics on their own accord. It's pretty involved, but the base line is this:

Every turn the AI checks what the best set of civics is for it to have in its current situation. It does this by calculating a "value" for each civic in each category, and picking the one that suits it best. The value for the civics it already has are multiplied by 6/5, so it slightly favors not revolting over revolting. But the consequence of this is that as soon as that threshold is surpassed, the AI will revolt, there's no randomness to it.

The short story is that the AIs' valuations of OR are pretty much fixed, whereas the FR value increases by 5 for each excess (i.e. non-state) religion added to any town:
* Cyrus currently values OR at 53 and FR at 63. 53 * 6/5 = 64, so one more religion to any town will do the trick.
* Louis values OR at 27 and FR at 31. 27 * 6/5 = 33, so again one more religion will be enough.
* Mansa values OR at 27 and FR at 20. 27 * 6/5 = 33, meaning he needs 3 more religions in his towns.
* Hatty values OR at 27 and FR at 21, so same story as for Mansa.

Note that these AIs are all in OR currently, which means they can (and do) build their own missionaries to spread religions in their own towns. Cyrus and Louis both have plenty more spread to do (6 for Cyrus, 3 for Louis) and can more or less be expected to handle it all on their own. Mansa and Hatty both only have one excess religion and can't do it without help. Nor could we help them out if we wanted, we can only build Confucian misisonaries, so we couldn't generate the 3 more religions that would be necessary.

I guess we should calculate how long it would take us to build a missionary and sail him over to Cyrus/Louis to spread the religion there, so that we know when we have to do it at the latest in case they don't fix it on their own. But it seems clear that both will go for FR before the end, whether with our help or without it, so the scare is now officially over. I'm going to update #1083 yet again to take this into account. EDIT: Never mind that, I'll make a new post, removing Cathy from the list. She won't be our opponent, and we don't want her to be.

 

[Niklas]

Frederick:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +1 BR, +4 FT, +1 ST, +1 Help = +10
Saladin: -2 Hidden, not a problem
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +1 OB = +4
Potential problem: No.

Washington:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 ST, -1 CB, +1 Losers Unite = +9
Saladin: -3 Hidden, not a problem.
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +1 OB = +4
Potential problem: No.

Asoka:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 Help, +1 Rank = +11
Saladin: +1 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +4
Cyrus: +4 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +7
Potential problem: No.

Lizzy:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +5 Civic, +1 BR, +1 ST, -1 RH = +13
Saladin: -2 Hidden, not a problem.
Cyrus: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +3 Civic = +11
Potential problem: No.

Cathy:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +4 Civic, +1 Help = +12
Saladin: +5 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, -4 Heathens = +6
Cyrus: -1 Hidden, not a problem
Potential problem: Saladin adopted HR, so no. Even if Cathy goes FR now, we get her vote. We don't even need to get her to +4 FT, which means less RT demerits with Mansa and Hatty.

Louis:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +4 FT, +2 OB, +1 BR, +4 Civic = +11
Saladin: +1 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +4
Cyrus: -5 hidden, not a problem
Potential problem: No. He will go FR before too long, and we'd get his vote regardless.

HC:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +1 BR, +4 FT, +4 Civic, -1 Declared on Friend, +1 Losers Unite = +11
Saladin: +4 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, -3 Heathens = +4
Cyrus: -1 Base, not a problem.
Potential problem: Since Saladin left HR, no.

JC:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 ST, -1 RST = +8
Saladin: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +6
Cyrus: -1 Hidden, not a problem
Potential problem: We don't want him to get Constitution, to get Civic bonuses towards Saladin, at least not too early. He doesn't have Nationalism yet so there's good hope. We might also get a Shared War bonus with him in the end. We've been at war together for 21 turns now, and it's 31 turns left to the end. For the counter to be at or above 8 at the end, the shared war must continue for another 9 turns, not impossible. And we might go into more war later too (Alex?). A DP with him would also be a possibiliy, in case the wars end.

Hatty:
Us: +1 Peace, +4 FT, +2 OB, +3 Civic, -1 RT, +1 Losers Unite = +10
Saladin: -3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +6 Religion = +8
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +1 BR = +6
Potential problem: Cathy is worth a lot more to us than Hatty, and we can't really afford the RT demerits that Cathy will generate. But since we may not need to go for +4 FT with Cathy, we can probably keep Hatty at -2 RT at worst. Note that we don't need to care about the shared religion, since the hidden factor is rather large.

Cyrus:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +1 BR, +1 ST, +1 Help, +1 Rank = +11
Saladin: 0 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +3 Civic = +8
Cyrus: Doh.
Potential problem: No, since he will adopt FR before too long.

Mansa:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +2 ST, +5 Civic, -1 RT, +1 Losers Unite = +14
Saladin: -3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +5 Religion, +5 Civic, +2 BR = +12
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +5 Religion, +3 Civic = +15
Potential problem: Trading with Cathy will generate RT demerits, we have one already, but like for Hatty we can likely cap it at -2. He won't go FR, but we should get his vote regardless, as long as we face Saladin.

Summary of potential problems:
If Cyrus is our opponent: Mansa, getting enough votes.
If Saladin is our opponent: No one.

With the removal of Cathy as a potential opponent, HC and Louis are now Green.

The only thing not accounted for now is potential DPs.

 

[Renata]

I agree with your conclusion on building missionaries. No point with Mansa and Hatty, and the problem will probably fix itself with Cyrus and Louis. We should probably just continue building our basic military until 15-20 turns to go, then re-evaluate if maybe a missionary or two would be needed at that point.

 

[Niklas]

Another thing that strikes me is that we actually have margins, time wise, for building relations. What I mean is that if we somehow manage to get that vote earlier, which doesn't seem impossible considering the much higher research we are seeing, we will probably have the relations necessary to win.

- All the HR crowd except Hatty are predicted +11 or higher and with good margins towards our opponents. Hatty caps her bonus at +3 anyway so it wouldn't matter. So if we could build the UN earlier, we'll still have their votes. (And a corollary is that we don't need to revolt to HR now, we can actually wait for 6 more turns, planning for +3 at the end instead of +4).
- Our relations with Washington are actually helped by voting earlier, since that means we can shut of our resources to him earlier (if only 2 turns).
- The one tricky part is JC, since we won't reach +2 OB in time for an earlier vote. We signed it on turn 139, one turn too late for +2 OB on turn 198. But on the other hand, that is made up by less decrease in the Shared War counter. We only need to stay in a mutual war (against Toku, and possibly later against Alex, if we even care about that) for another 7 turns to secure a +1 at the end, that seems very likely. Every further 4 turns gives another +1.
- Fewer turns left means fewer turns for someone to make trouble on...

I'll have a look at the spread sheet to see what we could possibly hope to accomplish.

 

[Niklas]

One more thing - we don't really need Caste System anymore, we can have all our scientists anyway thanks to Library+Observatory+Oxford. And when we revolt to HR we could just as well revolt to one more civic, it's still 1 turn revolt. The choices are Serfdom for faster workers, or Slavery for whipping out that UN faster... I guess the former would make more sense.

 

[Niklas]

>>The Save<<

Spoiler :

IBT:
State Religion Change: Julius Caesar(Rome) from 'no State Religion' to 'Buddhism'
Attitude Change: Frederick(Germany) towards Julius Caesar(Rome), from 'Cautious' to 'Pleased'
Attitude Change: Montezuma(Aztec) towards Julius Caesar(Rome), from 'Cautious' to 'Annoyed'
Attitude Change: Washington(America) towards Julius Caesar(Rome), from 'Cautious' to 'Annoyed'
Attitude Change: Julius Caesar(Rome) towards Frederick(Germany), from 'Cautious' to 'Pleased'
Attitude Change: Julius Caesar(Rome) towards Washington(America), from 'Cautious' to 'Annoyed'
Attitude Change: Julius Caesar(Rome) towards Mansa Musa(Mali), from 'Cautious' to 'Annoyed'
Attitude Change: Julius Caesar(Rome) towards Isabella(Spain), from 'Annoyed' to 'Cautious'
Attitude Change: Elizabeth(England) towards Julius Caesar(Rome), from 'Pleased' to 'Cautious'
Attitude Change: Catherine(Russia) towards Julius Caesar(Rome), from 'Friendly' to 'Pleased'
Attitude Change: Louis XIV(France) towards Julius Caesar(Rome), from 'Friendly' to 'Pleased'
Attitude Change: Isabella(Spain) towards Julius Caesar(Rome), from 'Annoyed' to 'Cautious'
Civics Change: Julius Caesar(Rome) from 'Decentralization' to 'Free Market'
Civics Change: Julius Caesar(Rome) from 'Free Religion' to 'Theocracy'
Civics Change: Catherine(Russia) from 'Decentralization' to 'Free Market'

Turn 162/460 (1020 AD) [31-Jul-2008 14:21:50]
Niklas: Uranium connected
Niklas: Trade it to JC for 1 gpt

IBT:
State Religion Change: Louis XIV(France) from 'Hinduism' to 'no State Religion'
Attitude Change: Hatshepsut(Egypt) towards Julius Caesar(Rome), from 'Cautious' to 'Annoyed'
Attitude Change: Hatshepsut(Egypt) towards Louis XIV(France), from 'Pleased' to 'Cautious'
Attitude Change: Elizabeth(England) towards SGOTM07(China), from 'Pleased' to 'Friendly'
Attitude Change: Elizabeth(England) towards Asoka(India), from 'Pleased' to 'Friendly'
Attitude Change: Cyrus(Persia) towards Louis XIV(France), from 'Pleased' to 'Cautious'
Attitude Change: Mansa Musa(Mali) towards Louis XIV(France), from 'Pleased' to 'Annoyed'
Attitude Change: Saladin(Arabia) towards Louis XIV(France), from 'Friendly' to 'Pleased'
Attitude Change: Catherine(Russia) towards Louis XIV(France), from 'Pleased' to 'Friendly'
Attitude Change: Huayna Capac(Inca) towards Louis XIV(France), from 'Cautious' to 'Pleased'
Attitude Change: Louis XIV(France) towards Frederick(Germany), from 'Furious' to 'Annoyed'
Attitude Change: Louis XIV(France) towards Montezuma(Aztec), from 'Friendly' to 'Pleased'
Attitude Change: Louis XIV(France) towards Julius Caesar(Rome), from 'Pleased' to 'Friendly'
Attitude Change: Louis XIV(France) towards Hatshepsut(Egypt), from 'Pleased' to 'Cautious'
Attitude Change: Louis XIV(France) towards Cyrus(Persia), from 'Pleased' to 'Cautious'
Attitude Change: Louis XIV(France) towards Mansa Musa(Mali), from 'Pleased' to 'Cautious'
Attitude Change: Louis XIV(France) towards Catherine(Russia), from 'Pleased' to 'Friendly'
Attitude Change: Louis XIV(France) towards Huayna Capac(Inca), from 'Cautious' to 'Pleased'
Attitude Change: Louis XIV(France) towards Isabella(Spain), from 'Annoyed' to 'Cautious'
Civics Change: Louis XIV(France) from 'Organized Religion' to 'Free Religion'

Turn 163/460 (1030 AD) [31-Jul-2008 14:35:09]
Tech learned: Corporation
Niklas: Trade for Corporation from Freddy, giving him Rifling
Niklas: The new trade route is +8 with Rome
Niklas: 703 bpt now, cool
Niklas: JC has finally forgotten that we refused to stop trading with Washington!
Niklas: That means he's safe now, even if the war should end
Niklas: I want some action!
While attacking in Indian territory near Kyoto, Grenadier defeats (4.32/12): Japanese Longbowman (Prob Victory: 98.7%)
Niklas: Yay, we killed a Japanese LB!
Beijing finishes: Rifleman

IBT:
Attitude Change: Julius Caesar(Rome) towards SGOTM07(China), from 'Pleased' to 'Friendly'
Attitude Change: Cyrus(Persia) towards SGOTM07(China), from 'Pleased' to 'Friendly'
Civics Change: Hatshepsut(Egypt) from 'Slavery' to 'Serfdom'

Turn 164/460 (1040 AD) [31-Jul-2008 14:56:13]
Beijing begins: Catapult (2 turns)
Grenadier promoted: Combat II
Niklas: Cyrus is now Friendly and would trade Steel
Niklas: But I want to build a Cat or two first

IBT:
Attitude Change: Saladin(Arabia) towards Cyrus(Persia), from 'Pleased' to 'Friendly'

Turn 165/460 (1050 AD) [31-Jul-2008 15:05:49]
Niklas: Toku wanted a peace deal, nah
Niklas: Sell Constitution to Mansa.
Niklas: Sell Economics to Louis
Beijing finishes: Catapult

IBT:
Attitude Change: Tokugawa(Japan) towards Isabella(Spain), from 'Annoyed' to 'Cautious'
Attitude Change: Catherine(Russia) towards Mansa Musa(Mali), from 'Cautious' to 'Annoyed'
Attitude Change: Louis XIV(France) towards Mansa Musa(Mali), from 'Cautious' to 'Annoyed'
Civics Change: Mansa Musa(Mali) from 'Hereditary Rule' to 'Representation'

Turn 166/460 (1060 AD) [31-Jul-2008 15:13:59]
Beijing begins: Catapult (2 turns)
Niklas: Saladin has Steam Power
Niklas: Freddy has 2 rifles and 2 grens outside Kyoto, which only has 2 LBs now
Niklas: Whoa, Cathy says her WE is Mansa!
Niklas: That means I can trade a bunch of things to Hatty right away
Niklas: Sell her Liberalism, Nationalism, SciMeth and Chemistry
Tech learned: Radio
Beijing finishes: Catapult

IBT:
Japanese Empire has been eliminated
Attitude Change: Asoka(India) towards Huayna Capac(Inca), from 'Cautious' to 'Pleased'
Attitude Change: Mansa Musa(Mali) towards Elizabeth(England), from 'Pleased' to 'Friendly'
Attitude Change: Saladin(Arabia) towards Elizabeth(England), from 'Cautious' to 'Annoyed'

Turn 167/460 (1070 AD) [31-Jul-2008 15:41:29]
Research begun: Mass Media (6 Turns)
Beijing begins: Confucian Missionary (2 turns)

Good news: Freddy conquered Kyoto killing Toku. Louis switched to FR. JC forgot about the RST, putting him on the safe side.
Bad news: Cyrus isn't in FR yet, so we should probably plan for a missionary to send over there. We got a -1 RT demerit with HC.

All in all, this is starting to look very solid.

 

[Niklas]

Frederick:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +1 BR, +4 FT, +1 ST, +1 Help = +10
Saladin: -2 Hidden, not a problem
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +1 OB = +4
Potential problem: No.

Washington:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 ST, -1 CB, +1 Losers Unite = +9
Saladin: -3 Hidden, not a problem.
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +1 OB = +4
Potential problem: No.

Asoka:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 Help, +1 Rank = +11
Saladin: +1 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +4
Cyrus: +4 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +7
Potential problem: No.

Lizzy:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +5 Civic, +1 BR, +1 ST, -1 RH = +13
Saladin: -2 Hidden, not a problem.
Cyrus: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +3 Civic = +11
Potential problem: No.

Cathy:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +3 Civic, +1 Help = +11
Saladin: +5 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, -4 Heathens = +6
Cyrus: -1 Hidden, not a problem
Potential problem: Saladin adopted HR, so no. Even if Cathy goes FR now, we get her vote (and she needs 4 more excess religions to do that). We don't even need to get her to +4 FT, which means less RT demerits with Mansa and Hatty.

Louis:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +4 FT, +2 OB, +1 BR, +3 Civic = +10
Saladin: +1 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +4
Cyrus: -5 hidden, not a problem
Potential problem: No. He's in FR now, so has no ties to Saladin left.

HC:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +1 BR, +4 FT, +3 Civic, -1 Declared on Friend, -1 RT, +1 Losers Unite = +9
Saladin: +4 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, -3 Heathens = +4
Cyrus: -1 Base, not a problem.
Potential problem: Since Saladin left HR, no. We got a RT demerit for trading with Freddy, which suggests we should revolt now to get that +3 civics if we want HC's vote.

JC:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 ST = +9
Saladin: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +6
Cyrus: -1 Hidden, not a problem
Potential problem: Since he forgot about the RST then no.

Hatty:
Us: +1 Peace, +4 FT, +2 OB, +3 Civic, -1 RT, +1 Losers Unite, +1 ST = +11
Saladin: -3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +6 Religion = +8
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +1 BR = +6
Potential problem: She's no longer Cathy's WE, so we have been able to trade with her. Getting to +1 ST shouldn't be hard, which suggests we can easily afford the RT demerits that Cathy would bring.

Cyrus:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +1 BR, +1 Help, +1 Rank = +10
Saladin: 0 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +3 Civic = +8
Cyrus: Doh.
Potential problem: No, since he will adopt FR before too long.

Mansa:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +2 ST, +4 Civic, -1 RT, +1 Losers Unite = +13
Saladin: -3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +5 Religion, +4 Civic, +2 BR = +11
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +3 Civic = +10
Potential problem: Trading with Cathy will generate RT demerits, we have one already, but like for Hatty we can likely cap it at -2. Trading with him will generate RT demerits with Cathy, but that shouldn't be a problem either.

Summary of potential problems:
If Cyrus is our opponent: Getting enough votes.
If Saladin is our opponent: No one.

JC has been promoted to Green.

The only thing not accounted for now is potential DPs.

 

[Methos]

Looks like things are turning out for the better! It also looks likes its my turn, so 'got it'.

 

[Niklas]

Cyrus has retaken the lead, probably due to a whip by Saladin.

Cyrus: 63 (+1)
Saladin: 61 (-2)
Cathy: 56 (+1)
Caesar: 39 (+2)
Lizzy: 31 (+1)
Monty: 30 (+1)
Louis: 28 (-1)
Asoka: 27 (+1)
Alex: 27 (+1)
Frederick: 31 (+6)
Hatty: 25 (+0)
HC: 24 (+1)
Mansa: 19 (+1)
Us: 16 (+0)
Izzy: 14 (+0)
Washington: 10 (-2)
Toku: 0 (-8)

Total: 501

498 * 0.62 = 311 votes needed at current pop levels.

If Saladin is our opponent, and all Green and Blue vote for us, we have 369 votes. That's a whopping 58 more than needed, so we have quite some leeway.

If Cyrus is our opponent, we have 306 votes, needing only 5 more from pop relocations.

Things are starting to look solid indeed.

 

[Niklas]

Breakdown on tech trades, turn 167:

Those that must get +1 ST

Washington (10):
- Writing (58)
- Alphabet (60)
- Polytheism (68)
- Literature (86)
- Code of Laws (86)
- Philosophy (107)
- Civil Service (107)
- Paper (120)
- Engineering (120)
- Chemistry (142)
- Banking (150)
- Printing Press (155)
Summary: 12 techs traded, that should definitely be safe for +1 until the end. But if the chance appears, no reason not to give him something more.

Caesar (10):
- Literature (110)
- Music (127)
- Paper (132)
- Education (137)
- Liberalism (138)
- Banking (139)
- Gunpowder (139)
- Chemistry (142)
- Replaceable Parts (155)
- Rifling (158)
- Physics (158)
Summary: 11 techs traded, decay from 110 (likely 1). We should be safe, but no reason not to give him something more.

Those that we have a good chance of getting to +1 ST (at least)

Mansa (5):
- Music (132)
- Guilds (132)
- Banking (135)
- Economics (150)
- Chemistry (150)
- Replaceable Parts (155)
- Scientific Method (157)
- Constitution (165)
Summary: 8 techs traded, decay from 132 (0 so far, likely 0). We're at +1 now, and 2-3 more techs would bring us to +2. But he's Cathy's WE now, so we'll see about that.

Frederick (7):
- Civil Service (97)
- Drama (97)
- Philosophy (107)
- Compass (107)
- Astronomy (144)
- Gunpowder (152)
- Chemistry (153)
- Scientific Method (155)
- Economics (155)
- Replaceable Parts (155)
- Rifling (163)
Summary: 11 techs traded, decay from 97 (0 so far). At +1 now which will definitely stay to the end, 3-4 more techs would give us +2. We don't need it though.

Cathy (7):
- Gunpowder (142)
Summary: 1 tech traded, decay from 142 (likely 0). 6 more would do, but that would give RT demerits with Hatty and Mansa. We may not care about the former, and we have margins with the latter.

HC (10):
- Polytheism (68)
- Masonry (68)
- Literature (97)
- Drama (97)
- Philosophy (107)
- Paper (132)
- Engineering (132)
- Printing Press (155)
- Replaceable Parts (157)
- Scientific Method (157)
Summary: 10 techs traded, decay from 68 (at least 1 so far). 2 more techs until the end should keep us on the safe side.

Lizzy (needs 7):
- Alphabet (58)
- Drama (97)
- Paper (120)
- Liberalism (132)
- Replaceable Parts (155)
- Scientific Method (157)
Summary: 6 techs traded, decay from 58 (likely 2). 3 more should see us safe to the end.

Hatty (10):
- Drama (119)
- Guilds (138)
- Education (138)
- Liberalism (166)
- Nationalism (166)
- Scientific Method (166)
- Chemistry (166)
Summary: 7 techs traded, decay from 119 (likely 1). Needs 4 more. No longer Cathy's WE.

Those that are possible but unlikely:

Cyrus (10):
- Paper (119)
- Philosophy (119)
- Banking (132)
- Education (139)
- Scientific Method (157)
Summary: 5 techs traded, decay from 119 (likely 1). 6 more would be needed, and he's the runner-up for tech leader. Also not something we really need to strive for.

Louis (10):
- Engineering (132)
- Paper (155)
- Economics (165)
Summary: 3 techs traded, decay from 132 (likely 0). Needs another 7, not totally impossible but we shouldn't need it.

 

[Renata]

Doesn't JC dislike Washington now? So we should avoid trading with him if we can help it.

 

[Niklas]

Updating bonus resources for turn 167, with 21 turns to go:

Asoka: 118 (0) (expected +1 at the end, needs 2 more turns for +2, not needed)
Washington: 130 (1) (we can cancel the trade now)
Lizzy: 46 (1) (needs 13 more turns for +1 at the end)
Fred: 76 (0) (expected to be at 55 at end, thus +1)
JC: 85 (2) (we could cancel stone right away)
Saladin: 78 (2) (we only do this to boost him)
Louis: 56 (1) (needs 8 more turns for +1 at the end)
Cyrus: 25 (1) (needs to be given something extra for at least 4 turns)
HC: 20 (2)

 

[Niklas]

Doesn't JC dislike Washington now? So we should avoid trading with him if we can help it.

Very true, Toku is dead and JC is back in Theology, so Washington is now JC's worst enemy again. We shouldn't trade with Washington again until we have JC back in FR, it should be 4-5 turns until he can switch.

 

[Niklas]

I'll be polite and say hi to the Gypsy Kings spectators too.

Now to finish our own game so we can go watch your threads. Methos?