SGOTM 11 - Barley Demons

[timmy827]

Thoughts:

Current pop totals: (someone please double check my counting)
Mehmed 104
Izzy 68
Zara 33
Sal 69
Toku 82
Justinian 131
Us 122*

Our total includes the 11 at Devil's Gate (will lose 1 on capture, but get it back with the fur city founding.)

Counting us, Mehmed, Izzy and zara as sure votes gives 327. With Toku, 409. 609 total * 62% = 377 for victory. So, although the numbers will of course move around a bit we definitely need Toku's vote.

Toku relations, need +8 or more for his vote (thanks SilentConfusion for compiling this in post 507):
-1 base
-1 handicap
-1 worst enemies trade (assume this doesn't fade)
+1 resources (could go to +2. Anyone know where we are between 50 and 100 resource turns? Can gift stone + fish as no brainers, others will sting happy/health but worth it)
+1 peace (maxed)
+2 OB (maxed)
+1 "fair and forthright" (easily to +4 with more tech gifts)
+1 religion (assuming the bonk, no time for this to grow)
+1 or 2 mercantilism (maybe it will go up if he switches soon, probably not)

That leaves us with +7 (assuming +2 resources, +1 merc, no fade of worst enemies) meaning we are one short. We could get those conditions, or get a request for tribute/help to put us over the top, but I'm a bit worried. Other ideas? Any chance he would take a gift city on the northern island, or even Devil's Gate?

Another concern is that we might get a "your spy caused trouble" demerit if we are unlucky during the religious revolt. Not all failures cause it.

-------

Most cities will go to Wealth, as we will run out of $ before Economics.

Military forces already en route to the island (including Delhi's mace to be done this turn):
7 maces, 6 cats - absolutely plenty given what we face. I don't think any airships or whatnot are needed.

Will Slavery really help us? Based on the pop numbers we can whip some, but to what end?
The only builds I really see being necessary are the specialist buildings in Varanasi (which of course don't matter if we go Caste anyways, and we don't want to whip them because then we can't use them), and the two Spys (which once we hit the GA will finish in 3 turns anyways, plenty of time). If we want more spies, can build out of Bombay or Delhi. Caste gives us a slight advantage in GP at Varanasi, workshops to be built at Agra for UN, workshops on Wealth producing cities, abilities to make merchants anywhere, artists at DevilsGate for border pop. I think that is worth it.

What about Pacifism? We can't get Justin or Sal, and Izzy/Zara only have +1 currently and are safe. We should be fine to adopt that to speed Varanasi and revolt back if needed before the final vote.

From an old game on Epic, if the UN is built on turn N (meaning Agra is showing 1 turn to go when we end turn N)
SecGen vote N+1
announced N+2
Can proposed diplo vote N+9
Win N+10

The SecGen needs less than 50% so we can wait to bonk Toku until after that (following T-hawks advice to not leave him time to switch back, so on turn N+7 or so).

Spy success chances:
http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=6076611&postcount=30
Base fail chance between 0 and 25% based on EP ratio (assume it's 12.5%, we will have spent slightly more than Toku)
So we want to spread out the spies. Worst case is Toku has a spy in all cities, then fail chance per spy is ~40%. With 4 of them, I can live with a 2.5% chance all 4 fail. Of course, there are slight chances they get caught before then too.


Q about Economics Great Merchant: Probably doesn't matter as it will likely come before the final GP from Varanasi, but does it always appear in our capital? If not, any way to control/influence it?

One question: A lot of these numbers change with Golden Age, some (like the GPP in Varanasi) we can estimate, but total research is hard. Would the team be ok with me popping the golden age and doing nothing else to estimate tech times (still won't be perfect, if an AI comes up with a few hundred gold that would be nice).

 

[Swiss Pauli]

As far as getting the relations boost with Toku goes, maybe we can risk bonking him into Buddhism now, then bonking him back if/when he switches back to Hinduism in order to increase our 'brothers of the faith' bonus?

Unsure of whether we can bonk him as soon as he switches to Hinduism though, and there's always risk of a detected spy penalty.

Also, we can bribe Toku into Merc with an advanced tech (which might also get us a 'shared fancy tech' bonus). Indeed, it might be worth throwing him all techs just to get this bonus.

Another option is to bribe him into war (with Justinian) and join in ourselves for MMS bonuses. Do we know how long it takes MMS to accrue?

 

[T-hawk]

Caste/Pacifism now by your analysis seems good. Economics GM always comes in the capital. The way to influence it is to move the Palace. I agree with popping Golden Age now to examine tech numbers.

I get 87 for Toku, you probably missed size 5 Nagasaki in his west. Others match up.

Toku relations, need +8 or more for his vote (thanks SilentConfusion for compiling this in post 507):

Giving enough techs (trade or gift both count) will get a separate +1 for "you have shared your technological discoveries with us". Not sure how many that takes offhand but it's on the order of 10. Agree on gifting Toku all available resources to get that to +2.

Mutual military struggle as Swiss suggests does build pretty quick, +1 immediately and +1 every 10 turns or so to that AI's max.

Another way to get the needed votes is to conquer cities from somebody. The obvious choice is Saladin. Not Justinian, he is farther away, high on the power graph, and if we go too far we'll knock him down into not being our vote opponent. Saladin is next door and only a little ways above us in power. It might also be possible to get Tokugawa to join that war for MMS; we'd have to bonk him to Buddhism first. Toku would have to be Pleased+ with us and Pleased- with Saladin. Any thoughts on that?

 

[timmy827]

Time for just a quick reply right now:

I am not sure conquering from Sal is that great. It seems we would likely have to whip about the same amount of pop into units as we would get from him, unless we wound up waiting long enough to move all our barb island attackers back.

A mostly phony war for MMS (blockade Sal's coastal cities to starve) is tempting but it's worth remembering we would get a -1 also from Toku ("you declared war on our friend!"). Again sorry no time right now, can't check whether that would disappear if we bonk Toku into Buddhism before declaring.

Also, bonking Toku "now" means we need to go full espionage for a few turns (have almost nothing on him now), delaying the UN + Economics merchant.

 

[Swiss Pauli]

We can't declare on Sal, but Justinian (Toku's worst enemy I think) would be fair game especially if we only need be at war for a couple turns for the diplo win vote.

 

[timmy827]

I went ahead and triggered the GA but did nothing else:

http://gotm.civfanatics.net/saves/civ4sgotm11/Barley_Demons_SG011_AD0980_02.CivBeyondSwordSave

Diplo news: after some WB'd tests
Toku needs 20 tech shares to get the +1 (it varies by AI and no surprise he's stingy wtih the bonus). I see 13 we can gift him ourselves (included Mass Media and Econ), and 2-3 we could trade from other AI's (Music, DR, maybe Nationalism depending on Mehmed's speed). Anyone know how many we've already given him?

However, that probably doesn't matter. The civic bonus goes up every 10 turns, so +2 from that should be achievable. And his religion bonus starts at +2. That gives us room for -1 "spy caused trouble" which is great.

Looking at how long it's been since the -2 worst enemy went to -1, that disappearing in ~15 turns seems possible too. So the diplo is likely fine, no need to resort to mutual struggle.

 

[T-hawk]

Probably not given Tokugawa any techs at all so far, since he's never been willing to trade any in return. I wouldn't blow out our entire tech lead chasing +1 diplo that isn't going to happen.

We can get an idea of how close on resources. I checked the save from the start of my turnset and we already had +1 for resources with Tokugawa then. We've had one deal active ever since, so we have at least 14 resource-turns towards +2. So we don't need to give him any more than our surplus stone and silver.

I figure the backup plan if we don't get Toku's vote is to wait for the next election and try again after there's been more time to build up civics and religion. So after we're done with Barb Island, move the galleons into position to chain Buddhist Missionaries to Japan as fast as possible in hopes of getting him to stay in the religion. Also by that time we'd have the muscle to start a war right before the vote (any war we can get him to join) to pick up +1 MMS. Justinian as rogue state will NOT work for this - he's too far ahead of Toku on the power graph so Toku would be too chicken. Pretty much has to be Saladin.

IIRC, Toku has "Stop trading with Saladin" available as a trade item. Should we take that in exchange for the gifts up to Mercantilism? It'll stop those two ever becoming friends. Will give Saladin -1 towards us but we won't care about that.

 

[timmy827]

http://gotm.civfanatics.net/saves/civ4sgotm11/Barley_Demons_SG011_AD0990_01.CivBeyondSwordSave

Played one turn.

Toku can be bribed to DOW Sal (and then we can join in for MMS if needed; once he is at war with Sal he shouldn't be pleased with him I think).
Should we?
Questions:
1. I'm giving him Banking this turn. Would a war make him less likely to switch civics to Merc? Bribing him in isn't an option unless Friendly.
2. Not sure I'm comfortable jumping in as we have single warriors in all our western cities. Probably can use Galleons to prevent any Sal galleys from landing troops, and with Toku in war he likely won't try anyways, but still makes me a bit nervous.
One danger is I already did the Caste revolt, can't whip units for emergencies...

 

[T-hawk]

Don't worry about Saladin attacking us. Saladin won't put together any naval invasion as he has land targets next door in Japan.

One possible problem is all the other Theocrats (Zara, Isabella, Justinian) like Saladin (pleased), so we get "-1 you declared war on our friend" with each. And another bigger problem is that going to war will make it difficult to ship spies and missionaries to Japan. Finally, can Saladin buy anybody against us? Not any of the Friendly leaders, but could he buy Justinian?

So I'd hold off for now. We don't really gain much of anything by starting wars right now, plus there's the possibility they make peace before vote time. One or two turns before the vote, just in time to get +1 MMS with Japan, might be enough. That timing also works in that we could put together enough of an attack stack to take one Arabian city on the Japan border (Kufah), then liberate it to Japan for another diplo point.

So I'd hold off on war now, just give him Banking and see if he switches to Merc by himself. I bet he will, almost all AIs will go to Merc when first available even through anarchy, and it is his favorite civic.

 

[Compromise]

I agree with T-Hawk. I regret thinking that the UN was 50% rather than 62% of the votes needed....

 

[timmy827]

Sorry Swiss, think I did all the interesting stuff.

UN complete, should be SecGen next turn.
Should be able to call victory vote in 1150AD (8 turns from now), win on 1160AD. Everything else should be ready

Gift a tech to all our courted voters the turn before, just for extra insurance on the +4 "fair and forthright".

Next turn will have GP from Varanasi and Economics, completing our contingent. Since no one else went for Econ, I decided I may as well delay it until the Varanasi GP and crank EP for the spy bonk on Toku (just maybe it would come early enought to give us another + by the time the vote came).

Of course, one spy got caught immediately (standing in a city for the stationary discount), but fortune smiled on us as we did not get a diplo -, and the first actual try at the religion swap worked.

Toku is only +1 from shared faith but we should be ok - already on the +8 threshold, and will get another + from Mercantilism in a couple of turns.

Remember there are "hidden" -1 from Toku being ornery, and -1 from Emperor.

DevilsGate is ours and Zhou razed, with total losses of 5 catapults. Can settle furs next turn.

Fort is done and the trade route is already active.

Do NOT trade for Justinians gold (he's Toku worst enemy).

Probably don't need more + with our good friends, but may as well revolt to Theo.

Spread units around on barb island

The spy-religion swap on Toku took 675 EP with a -20% in place discount, and success chance was 85%. So keep EP on him in case we need to again but we don't need a whole lot; not sure there is anything useful for our tech/gold/culture/espionage to do. I stopped most city growth to squeeze out Mass Media; could grow now.

4 spies are in/near Japan.

Toku and Just both went into hands full a few turns in; likely hitting each other. So may be able to DOW Just for MMS bonus, (though we shouldn't need it). Some Galleons are ready to chain-transport the great people to the furs, others can sink any Byzantine naval sortie (though again it's <1 % likely Justy would do so when in a hot war with his land neighbor).

Checklist for victory conditions:
4 warriors and 4 GP on the fur (4 and 2 in DevilsGate now, 2 GP born next turn)
All AI's in state religion (check, no one has Liberalism).
State religion in all our cities (check; Missionary is there for the fur city)
All your cities have access to fur, dye, silk and ivory (check; in case trade deals get cancelled just make sure to renegotate them however we can).
All AI's alive, no more than two with "declared war on (check, as noted we may DOW Justinian but that would be our first.)



http://gotm.civfanatics.net/saves/civ4sgotm11/Barley_Demons_SG011_AD1070_01.CivBeyondSwordSave

 

[Swiss Pauli]

Nice work

Sorry Swiss, think I did all the interesting stuff.

Suits me: I'm super-busy this week and the only chance I'll have to play is Wednesday evening.

 

[T-hawk]

Yeah, great work Timmy.

I want to point out the situation that it's possible for an AI (Toku) to pop up interturn asking for war help, when he just declared on that same interturn and you haven't even seen it yet. Just be prepared for that situation involving Tokugawa. I think we have to accede to anything he asks, we can't afford any -1 and might need the +1 or +2 net counting MMS.

I don't think Tokugawa can declare on Justinian, J is too far ahead on the power graph (like more than double.) He could be targeting J while hands-full but won't ever catch up on power to declare. Toku can declare at Pleased so he can declare on Saladin.

Also watch out for Toku switching out of Buddhism before the vote and be ready to re-bonk of course.

 

[timmy827]

Good point about the war declaration. One thing: from previous experience, Toku actually gives a -2 for "you refused to war when we asked you to", so if he comes a-calling we definitely can't turn him down.

 

[Compromise]

Well done Timmy! Good playing with the espionage slider and the acquisition of the Economics GM.

Bring it on home when you get the chance, Swiss. (If it gets to be next week, I'll jump in.)

 

[Swiss Pauli]

Ack. Something's come up at work, so I'm not sure I'll be able to play night. Given I've no time until next week, can you take her home Cap'n Compromise?

 

[Compromise]

I can!

It will be on Friday, though. Houseguests who have already been here a week too long are leaving then. (You may have noticed my uncharacteristic brevity of late.)

 

[pocketbeetle]

C'mon Compy, bring it home dude.

 

[Compromise]

It's in progress right now....

 

[Compromise]

Well...it's over. But I screwed up in doing so.

Turn 252: Finished moving troops. Fired many specialists to maximize growth. Moving galleons to better maximize position.

(Interturn): Zara comes demanding War with Tokugawa! I say no (of course). It looks like Justinian declared on Toku and pulled Zara in with him. (And Zara wanted to get us involved too.

Turn 253: Dial up drama for research (1T) in case we need happiness from the culture slider. Get Great Merchants from Varanasi (GP farm) and Delhi (from Economics). Adopt Theocracy. We of course win Sec General with 443/646 votes.

(Interturn): Mehmed demands we cancel deals with Justinian. Since he is our Ivory supplier, I say no.

Turn 254: Barb island is land-and-coast fogbusted. Galleons are moving Merchants to Fur location.

(Interturn): Mehmed cancels our silk deal! I am able to renegotiate by giving him our only Copper for his Silk, Incense, and 8gpt. Not terrible. At least he's no one's worst enemy.

Turn 255: Moving Merchants. Also some more spies are readied to sit in waiting off the coast of Japan.

(Interturn): Justinian demand war with Tokugawa! Yes: Four straight interturn demands from the AIs. Most of which lower our rating with someone....

Turn 256: Still moving spies and Merchants. Merchants now on barb island.

(Interturn): Nothing. Just gloriously left alone!

Turn 257: I decide it's finally time to found Madurai, our Fur city. Four warriors and four great people are present on the fur. All victory conditions met.

(Interturn): Nothing

Turn 258: Even our extra spies are in place off the coast of Japan (in international waters, just in case).

(Interturn): Mehmed asks for our World map. Not wanting to even potentially irritate anyone, I say no.

Turn 259: I nervously hit "End Turn"

(Interturn): Zara demands Liberalism! He's getting dangerously close to not being willing to vote for us, but there's simply no way I can give away Liberalism. I deny his request. Any more negatives for him and I think we lose his vote.

Turn 260: Finally...I can hit "End Turn" and choose the Diplomatic Victory vote...

(Interturn): Compromise screws his team and delays victory by 8 turns. Yes...another AI demand. This time, it's Tokugawa, and he wants us to cancel deals with Justinian. I am frantic. I spend I don't know how long trying to figure out if Toku will still vote for us if we cancel the deals. With the accursed "Demand Screen" up, I can't even save the game and ask for advice. Nor can I tell from the limited diplo options whether I can get Ivory from anywhere else. Justinian shows Ivory, but Isabella doesn't. Toku has some, but he's unwilling to trade.

I make the mistake of calculating that Tokugawa will still love us even if we don't hate Justinian, so I refuse to cancel our Ivory deal with Justinian.

Oops.

Uh...that's a -2 not a -1 penalty! Drops us to +9 with Toku.

I lose at least 2-3 months of life from stress. Fortunately, those lost months come at the end of life when you probably don't need them so much anyway.

Our bid for Diplo victory comes up short: 386/686. Toku and Saladin abstain as Justinian votes for himself.

I am despondent. There is much weeping and gnashing of teeth.

I save the game and upload it to the server, but decide that I have to end it. And it's pretty clear what to do.

Turn 261: Having failed to win, I declare on Justinian and move ships into position to counter him.

(Interturn): We suffer some caravel attacks, but survive.

Turn 262: Stack more galleons to counter Justinian, especially near barb island.

(Interturn): Have some bad luck against caravel stacks, but mostly survive:

Turn 263: More naval movement. I am pleased to see that our Mutual Struggle bonus with Toku moves him to a voting relationship.

(Interturn): Gaah! Have I royally messed us up? Justinian uses the Apostolic Palace to call for an end to the war! Of course, he has essentially all the votes, so he'll get what he wants.

Turn 264: Justinian is successful: We and Toku are forced to give him peace (though Zara is still at war with Toku). Our Mutual Struggle bonus is gone.

I am in shambles...except...by some miracle, the "-2 You refused to stop trading" has vanished from Tokugawa's leadersheet!

Hit "End Turn" a couple of times.... Call for Diplo victory again on Turn 268 (1230AD)...







And win on Turn 269 (1240AD). All conditions satisfied.

I uploaded the 1240AD save to the server, so it's done. I believe we're free to read whatever threads we'd like.

I have the 1230AD autosave file available for anyone who might want it for their personal HoF.

Well...this isn't exactly how I was hoping it would end, and I apologize for my mistakes, but I do want to say that I've enjoyed working on this with everyone. Thank you all for great input and a good time!