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- Mar 26, 2007
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Yes, doing the Worker first would mean it takes 20t to complete, meaning its available to do work on turn 20, like starting to clear Fallout which is the main cause of our Health issues. I assume clearing two Plots of Fallout in our Capital's BFC would reduce Unhealthiness by 1, up to a total of clearing six Plots of Fallout for a total reduction of 3 Unhealthiness. In 20t, we can Research Fishing and Animal Husbandry. Assuming Fallout takes 6t to clear and a building a Pasture takes 4t, it will take 11t or until turn 31 to have a functional Cow Pasture. Unfortunately, we need The Wheel to connect the Cow to gain +1 Health and an additional 2t to build the Road. The big plus though is having enough Hammers to utilize the Expansive trait's +25% Hammer bonus via working the Plains Cow Pasture (3F3H) and the City Center (2F1H1C).
However, doing a Work Boat first (the obvious choice), means building a Warrior for 8t or building something else for 7t. We can't start the Work Boat until turn 7 or 8, because we lack Fishing. The first Work Boat is completed in 15t, thus it completes on turn 23 or 24. At this point, we are Population 2, assuming we didn't build a partial Worker or Settler for turns 0-6. On Turn 24 or 25, we convert our Work Boat into a Fish Net causing the Fish Plot to produce +3F (5F2C). At this point, our Capital would likely work the Fish Net (5F2C), a Grassland Forest (2F1H) and City Center (2F1H1C), but we would lose 1 FPt to unhealthiness. Thus total net Output becomes 4F2H3C. City growth jumps from +1 Fpt to +4 Fpt.
At turn 24, we can build either another Work Boat or a Worker:
t24 Work Boat: Hammers are still only +2 Hpt, but +4 Fpt Growth means Population 3 in 6t and a second Grassland Forest (2F1H) worked adds +1 Hpt, but net Health drops to -2, so growth drops to +3 Fpt and with 26F needed to get to Population 4, its ETA becomes (temporarily) 9t. Status of boat is now 12 of 30 with 18H to be completed at +3 Hpt or another 6t to complete. The 2nd Work Boat completes and is converted to a Clam Net on turn 36 and net Health increases from -2 to -1. Net Food increases to +6 Fpt and not +7 Fpt due to the net -1 Health. A Worker started on t36, will utilize +2 Hpt and +6 Fpt and will therefore complete in 8t and thus be available on turn 44.
Without a Worker build, Population 4 would be achieved with 6t of +3 Fpt (18F) and 2t of +6 Fpt (12F) with 2F overflow, but Health drops from -1 to -2 (+6 Fpt -> +5 Fpt). Unfortunately, at Population 4, Hammers are just 1 more at 3 Hpt, not enough for the Expansive trait's +25% Hammer bonus to Workers. To get this bonus, we will need either a Cow Pasture or Gold Mine and that won't happen without an early Worker.
t24 Worker: Although Hammers are still only +2 Hpt, the relatively high +4 Fpt results in a Worker in 10t. Our first Worker becomes available on turn 34. It will take 11t to clear Fallout and build a Pasture on the Plains Cow Plot, making the Cow Pasture available to be worked on turn 45.
Conclusion:
While I agree that building a Work Boat first is a viable alternative, I'm not so sure its the best. In my opinion, only sound, mathematical reasoning or a test Game run can prove this either way. Nothing I've presented above really proves anything either way, but it provides enough doubt in my mind at least to justify a Mathematical Analysis or Test run of the optimal choices following a Worker first build. It's hard to determine the impact of having a functional Plains Cow Pasture on turn 31 and a functional Grassland Cow Pasture on turn 42 or visa versa. The two Work Boats can be built really fast when working the Plains Cow Pasture and really fast when working both Cow Pastures.
The arguments above do make a strong case for building a Worker immediately after the 1st Work Boat. Its hard to see the immediate advantage of growing to Population 3 when the available Plot to work is either 2F1H or 2F2C, nor is increasing Growth from +4 Fpt to +6 Fpt that spectacular, especially when temporarily dropping to +3 Fpt.
However, I can't conclude on the basis of the above Analysis that building two Work Boats ASAP isn't the best initial Logistical System, because it may provide an edge in Commerce generation which my analysis ignored. (I was tempted to say Operational Strategy above rather that Logistical System, but really the interaction of Technologies Possessed, Build Queue, and Worker tasks seems more Logistical than Operational; in other words, it seems to be more a matter of complicated Logistics than Operational Strategy.
Adding the Two Gold Mines:
Ultimately, the best Logistical System may be the one that gets our Capital to Population 6 and works the Fish Net (5F2C), Clam Net (4F2C), two Cow Pastures (3F3H & 4F2H) and two Gold Mines (3H8C and 3H7C), a Net total of 7F12H27C. This is bit complicated for direct Mathematical Analysis where one minor mistake could invalidate the whole Analysis. We probably need extensive Test Game results to really be sure which Alternative Logistical System is the best. The importance of the two Gold Mines is primarily the 8 and 7 Commerce per turn each that they add and secondarily the 3 Hammers per turn they each add. With Two Gold Mines, we can really accelerate our initial Research rate (from 9 Bpt to 27 Bpt) and build things twice as fast (from 6 Hpt to 12 Hpt).
Sun Tzu Wu
Worker two completes and moves to cows to start pasture. Start a lighthouse for more food (this could be a different choice, obviously) but mostly just so the city grows.
