SGOTM 12 - Plastic Ducks

[hydraculas]

Plan for the next set
t32:worker1,2 go to cow, clean the fallout and make pasture
t33:warrior1 finished, go to the hill besides DG (north west to the rice)
capital continue warriors to 3
t35 capital grow to 2 and the pasture finished
t36:worker1,worker2 to horse, make pasture;when finished, worker1 to gold mine and worker2 to clean the fallout of city2
t39 capital grow to 3 and start to produce settler
t41 pottery finished > writing
t45 settler finished > worker3
t46 city2 settled, save cash for 1 turn;worker2 go to the rice of capital
t48 gold mine finished > worker1 go to another gold mine to build road
t49 worker3 borned > worker4; worker3 go to the east tile of capital
t50 worker1,2,3 build road at the same turn(road from rice to the gold mine)
t51 writing finished > mysticism (start saving cash and 100% at turn57 according my simulation)
when worker4 produced, the rice is about to finished and then capital build library to pop5

 

[kossin]

How does everyone feel about Pottery here?
In terms of GLH it will push back Oracle-CS another 2 turns...

That makes me nervous as it makes everything late... True we're playing humans but AIs also need to be considered and we can't get away with doing everything...

So!

GLH or no GLH = Writing or Pottery

 

[hydraculas]

I will go for Pottery without GLH.
As u can see, in my simulation I have Pottery and city3. And I oracled CS at turn80, just 2turns later compared to no GLH 2cities approach.

How does everyone feel about Pottery here?
In terms of GLH it will push back Oracle-CS another 2 turns...

That makes me nervous as it makes everything late... True we're playing humans but AIs also need to be considered and we can't get away with doing everything...

So!

GLH or no GLH = Writing or Pottery

 

[hydraculas]

And I have a plan B. Plan A is a finance maximized one with a very late chariot.(after turn60)
If we need, the capital can produce chariot after worker3 and grow to 4. Then produce worker4 at 4 and then library to 5. It's about turn62 and 1 turns later compared to plan A. The using of Gold mine2 will also delayed for 3 or 4 turns.

In plan B we will get a chariot at turn 53.

Plan for the next set
t32:worker1,2 go to cow, clean the fallout and make pasture
t33:warrior1 finished, go to the hill besides DG (north west to the rice)
capital continue warriors to 3
t35 capital grow to 2 and the pasture finished
t36:worker1,worker2 to horse, make pasture;when finished, worker1 to gold mine and worker2 to clean the fallout of city2
t39 capital grow to 3 and start to produce settler
t41 pottery finished > writing
t45 settler finished > worker3
t46 city2 settled, save cash for 1 turn;worker2 go to the rice of capital
t48 gold mine finished > worker1 go to another gold mine to build road
t49 worker3 borned > worker4; worker3 go to the east tile of capital
t50 worker1,2,3 build road at the same turn(road from rice to the gold mine)
t51 writing finished > mysticism (start saving cash and 100% at turn57 according my simulation)
when worker4 produced, the rice is about to finished and then capital build library to pop5

 

[Duckweed]

Isn't the vote clear already?

Issue about GLH can be left to next set after Writing. I might take some time to run more tests tonight. Let's focus on a 15 turn set to Writing now and get it going.

Worker's micro and tile management are not very clear, would be happy to see explicitly. (City 2 on T46 + gold available on T48) vs (both City 2 and gold available on T47), I think the latter comes ahead.

After 3rd worker, lib or 4th worker?

My vote for all those issues unchanged.

Let's vote for all uncertain issues before getting to the more detailed plan. IMO it's inefficient to keep revising plan without voting for debating issues in advance and I strongly suggest active player try to do it.

 

[hydraculas]

Now we have 3 plans:
A Oracling CS on turn 78 with 2cities without GLH( http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=9631049&postcount=168)
B Oracling CS on turn 82 with 2cities with GLH(http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=9631049&postcount=168)
C Oracling CS on turn 80 with 3cities without GLH(http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=9631784&postcount=173)

We need to decide now. If we choose plan C, we should tech > Pottery ahead of writing.

Isn't the vote clear already?

Issue about GLH can be left to next set after Writing. I might take some time to run more tests tonight. Let's focus on a 15 turn set to Writing now and get it going.

Worker's micro and tile management are not very clear, would be happy to see explicitly. (City 2 on T46 + gold available on T48) vs (both City 2 and gold available on T47), I think the latter comes ahead.

After 3rd worker, lib or 4th worker?

My vote for all those issues unchanged.

Let's vote for all uncertain issues before getting to the more detailed plan. IMO it's inefficient to keep revising plan without voting for debating issues in advance and I strongly suggest active player try to do it.

 

[BornInCantaloup]

Issue about GLH can be left to next set after Writing. I might take some time to run more tests tonight. Let's focus on a 15 turn set to Writing now and get it going.

Worker's micro and tile management are not very clear, would be happy to see explicitly. (City 2 on T46 + gold available on T48) vs (both City 2 and gold available on T47), I think the latter comes ahead.

After 3rd worker, lib or 4th worker?

- I hope you'll have time to run some tests soon

- I also prefer city 2 and gold available on T47. From the current situation, that means using the 2nd worker for a turn to clear the fallout on the gold and moving the settler on the city spot while there still is fallout.

- I still favour the infrastructure after the 3rd worker. It allows for a faster growth and, most importantly, faster use of the 2nd gold mine.


@ Hydraculas :
I'm not opposed at all to tech Pottery first (in fact I may favour it) but it's an issue that needs discussion. There's a lack of arguments on that matter.
In any case, if we tech Pottery, the capital should have a granary built before the library (size 3 to 4 : Granary ; 4 to 5 : Library) and then we could build the Oracle with a size 6 capital.

Sidenote Pottery & GLH :
Researching Pottery delays CoL/Maths but is not incompatible with the GLH.
If we go Pottery>Sailing>Writing, then we can go Workboat>Lighthouse in city 2 and Granary>Library in the capital. EDIT : not really, maybe... There seems to be 1 iddle turn in the capital between the completion of the granary and the start of the library (T56). That is with 3 workers.
Is it too late to discuss those issues ? We're still at a stage where tests don't take more than 5-10 minutes. Maybe 20 if we go to the Oracle's completion...


I'm a bit lost... what are the official, voted, objectives ?
Oracle Civil Service and ?

 

[BornInCantaloup]

Double post, sorry.

In any case, I don't have a very clear opinion on what I wrote above. Still running tests.

 

[kossin]

Ok, let's get this going:

VOTE:

Pottery>Writing or Writing

It's kind of a bummer to have to vote once again as we had already agreed on Writing first but it's a valid option so consider well your vote. I need some time to consider before my vote.

 

[Duckweed]

@all

My 2 tests game were to find out the possible date of Oracle and GLH, the worker micro and city build need big adjustment. One apparent adjustment is that worker should road to the next city site and clean the fallout. This can only be discussed when we see more map surrounding.

@hydraculas
2 turns of earlier Oracle IS important, we know that this is a big gamble and that's the major reason why I said that I don't have very strong preference for GLH in the beginning. City 3 helps to work cottages for capital is good. However, the problems I have seen are

1. 2 turns of delay of Oracle
2. One of the cottage is on silk, yes the yield of cottage will be more than silk improvement in the end, however, the resource trade value of 1 extra silk make it better than town.
3. That city will stop on size 2 or 3 for very long time.
4. Since you draw lots of worker turn to setup that city, the Fish city was seriously weakened, as I can see that the clam is not claimed yet.
5. For the same reason, at that time, the site for a better city should be ready to be settled. A better site in my mind is that it should have strong health resources to help the empire fight the health issue.

 

[BornInCantaloup]

Vote :

- Writing first again, as per the majority.

- Gold first (see micro below). I don't see the point of going Horse first if we delay the settling from T46 to T47. If we go Horse first, as per the vote, I'm in favour of using both workers to clean the fallout for 1 turn and settle on T47.


Not the vote :

- Just lost the Oracle on T72 to some AI. Won some 35 gold ^^


Micro for Gold first :
Both workers clear the fallout on the gold tile. Then one of them mines and the other goes clear the fallout on the city spot.
Gold done on T43. The worker heads straight for the rice (not roading).
City 2 settled on T47. The worker heads for the 2nd gold tile (to road).
T51 : 3rd worker ready : goes 1E to road. 2nd and 3rd workers' roads are synched.
T52 : Warrior done, library started. Rice cleared (and improved next turn, iirc). Capital works Cow, Cow Rice.

 

[hydraculas]

It's just a bigger gamble, just like oracling CS on t78 is a gamble as well.
We can see it in this way, we have 60% chance to win 600 points with plan A (oracling CS with 2 cities on t78);and we have 55% chance to win 800 points with plan B(oracling CS with 3 cities on t80)

Through my simulation, I found that one of the efficient way to overcome fallout is more cities, closer cities with lower population, as a high population require more health and closer cities share a healthy land(if u clean a fallout, u may provide health to 2 cities). In plan A, city2 can keep a high population, but at the same time it face a deeper health penalty. I think the best way to overcome the early health problem of city2 is specialists.

In overall, plan B has a better economy compared to plan A: 2 more workers, (+55) to (+47) tech income (while plan B don't even has a academy) and 2 early village.

@BIC
about the ganary in capital, u can have a try to grow to 6. Just try to find out when u can oracle CS.

@all

My 2 tests game were to find out the possible date of Oracle and GLH, the worker micro and city build need big adjustment. One apparent adjustment is that worker should road to the next city site and clean the fallout. This can only be discussed when we see more map surrounding.

@hydraculas
2 turns of earlier Oracle IS important, we know that this is a big gamble and that's the major reason why I said that I don't have very strong preference for GLH in the beginning. City 3 helps to work cottages for capital is good. However, the problems I have seen are

1. 2 turns of delay of Oracle
2. One of the cottage is on silk, yes the yield of cottage will be more than silk improvement in the end, however, the resource trade value of 1 extra silk make it better than town.
3. That city will stop on size 2 or 3 for very long time.
4. Since you draw lots of worker turn to setup that city, the Fish city was seriously weakened, as I can see that the clam is not claimed yet.
5. For the same reason, at that time, the site for a better city should be ready to be settled. A better site in my mind is that it should have strong health resources to help the empire fight the health issue.

 

[hydraculas]

And just think in another way:
What if we failed in Oracling CS?

With 3 cities approach, at least we will have one more city.
In the 2 cities approach, we even don't have a cottage.

There are three situation:
a) AI finished Oracle before turn 78
b) AI finished Oracle in turn78 or turn79
c) AI finished Oracle later than turn 79

In all of the possibilities, I think only situation b will make Plan A better and Plan B, and that's a very small probability.

 

[Duckweed]

@BIC
That's my 1st test when comparing to your plan, which should lead to T77 Oracle. I changed my mind later since horse 1st lets capital grow to size5 2 turns earlier and enables capital to build a chariot rather than a warrior. That chariot could bring us some workers.

@hydraculas
My major point about your plan is that you take more risk with little gain. True that you get a 3rd city settled earlier but at the cost of a weakened fish city. A better 3rd city can be settled around the time when finishing Oracle and will outperform the rice city very soon.

 

[hydraculas]

@BIC
@hydraculas
My major point about your plan is that you take more risk with little gain. True that you get a 3rd city settled earlier but at the cost of a weakened fish city. A better 3rd city can be settled around the time when finishing Oracle and will outperform the rice city very soon.

I settled city3 at turn66, that's a big lead and I think this is not a small gain.
I had a weaker city2 just because I ran the scientists. Why do u ignore the loss of hammers of capital if u ran scientists in capital?What's more, is it worthy for city2 have a high population at early time? With 2 food resources, city2 is too easy to grow population. It's just a better place of SE than the capital. At early time,it will also face health penalty as it grow up.
And the place of city3 is not a bad place either. It helps the capital to grow cottages. It's a coastal city. Closer cities are helpful to overcome the fallout.

Why not consider more about the 3 situations I mentioned in post 193? We need to consider all the possibilities.

 

[kossin]

And just think in another way:
What if we failed in Oracling CS?

With 3 cities approach, at least we will have one more city.
In the 2 cities approach, we even don't have a cottage.

There are three situation:
a) AI finished Oracle before turn 78
b) AI finished Oracle in turn78 or turn79
c) AI finished Oracle later than turn 79

In all of the possibilities, I think only situation b will make Plan A better and Plan B, and that's a very small probability.

If we want to consider this then I can add: let's not put all eggs in the same basket and try for GLH as well.

We can't do anything about a) except finish on t77
About b)... there really isn't much to say. Either we aren't affected by finishing earlier or we lose just like a).
About c)... once again, same thing.

Basically, we only need to consider 2 things:
-we finish Oracle first
-we get beaten to Oracle

Either way it's a gamble. I've seen Gandhi finish it in 1100BC in one of my games.

Our decision should be made on what is best for us more than was is safest... as there is no safest.

If we can force the AI to delay it then we will most likely get it, whatever our tech path. If we don't, we lose it.

>>>Writing first (and still for GLH but we can evaluate this after next set).

Playing another set will give us an idea about Wonder dates... in the test game SG goes t34 and TGW not long after.... it the dates are slower in the real game (which they should as fallout should be there and from what I've seen the AI don't clean it), we've got a game.

 

[hydraculas]

Our decision should be made on what is best for us more than was is safest... as there is no safest.

If that's your point, why don't you go pottery and try for oracling CS with 3 cities?
I don't wanna go for GLH because the repaid is low and uncertain. However early city3 is always profitable.

 

[BornInCantaloup]

Hmmm...
I'll try to let the discussion go further with a look at what bothers me in the current plan :

Plan for the next set
t32:worker1,2 go to cow, clean the fallout and make pasture
t33:warrior1 finished, go to the hill besides DG (north west to the rice)
capital continue warriors to 3
t35 capital grow to 2 and the pasture finished
t36:worker1,worker2 to horse, make pasture;when finished, worker1 to gold mine and worker2 to clean the fallout of city2
t39 capital grow to 3 and start to produce settler
t41 pottery finished > writing
t45 settler finished > worker3
t46 city2 settled, save cash for 1 turn;worker2 go to the rice of capital
t48 gold mine finished > worker1 go to another gold mine to build road
t49 worker3 borned > worker4; worker3 go to the east tile of capital
t50 worker1,2,3 build road at the same turn(road from rice to the gold mine)
t51 writing finished > mysticism (start saving cash and 100% at turn57 according my simulation)
when worker4 produced, the rice is about to finished and then capital build library to pop5

T46 : city 2 works 2H2C tile, I assume ? And 3H8C from T48...
This means the workboat will complete on T54 and the fish will be improved on T55.
On the other hand, worker 4 will be done on T54. The rice was cleared on T53 and will be improved on T55.

This doesn't seem to trouble you but it does trouble me. Maybe you can explain me how you deal with the following :
- On T54, the capital works cow, cow unimproved rice. City 2 works the gold mine.
- On T55, the fish is improved and city 2 should work it ("should" as in : different micros allow to work it). However, the capital is size 3 and has access to 3 tiles that yield 4 food. Do you keep on working the gold tile with city 2 ? I think it is a mistake. Or do you stop working the rice in the capital so that city 2 can work the fish ? No more satisfying, in my opinion. Let's say you stun the growth in city 2 (in fact there's no other choice because the 2nd gold is incoming).
- On T57, the 2nd gold is improved. The capital can work it and still grow to 4 on T58. That's all good except... when will city 2 work its fish ?
- T58 : Capital reaches size 4, works Cow, Cow, Rice, 2nd gold. Library is due in 2 turns and the city will grow to size 5 in 5 turns. City 2 will start working the fish on T63, is that right ?


Maybe I should state more clearly my objectives for the incoming 20 turns. They make sense to me but maybe they're more debattable than I think ?
1) I'd like to allow the capital and city to grow at a steady rate. Size 5 is an important threshold to the capital and size 2 is as important to city 2 ;
2) I'd like to work both gold tile as early as possible (1 turn later 1st gold for 1 turn earlier 2nd gold is perfectly ok).

If those short term objectives aren't consensual, I could try to elaborate on their respective usefulness. Your micro contradicts point 1 and leads me to restate the advantages of 3 workers only before the library : Faster growth of the capital makes it easier to share tiles with city 2 so that both cities can grow.
The workforce is more strained with 3 workers but 4 workers isn't more flexible at all (see above).


Minor question :
What about the 3rd warrior ? Are we just going to lose the hammers ?

 

[BornInCantaloup]

If that's your point, why don't you go pottery and try for oracling CS with 3 cities?
I don't wanna go for GLH because the repaid is low and uncertain. However early city3 is always profitable.

I don't want to seem to contradict you on every single point you make but :
I doubt the repaid of Pottery will be higher than that of the GLH, especially without a Granary...
Do we even want to cottage the capital instead of farming it ? It has so many hills and our happy cap isn't so high yet (not sure on this issue, I lack experience).

I'm not opposed to a 3rd city but we're not forced to cottage it : we could go something like 2 farms, 2 mines, build a Library and run scientists. Being Creative and saving research time on Pottery, would it be much worse than your testrun ?

Hence,
GLH shouldn't be compared to Pottery, in my opinion. It may be compared to an early Academy in the capital, though. This has very strong consequences when we have 2 gold tiles and are gunning for Bureaucracy.


ps : Any news of DingDing ?

 

[kossin]

If that's your point, why don't you go pottery and try for oracling CS with 3 cities?
I don't wanna go for GLH because the repaid is low and uncertain. However early city3 is always profitable.

Because we might very well find a better location for city #3 after Warriors start scouting a bit. That Rice might be needed by another city in the area.

The arguments Duckweed made ab out the cottages are very valuable, especially the one on the silk. And this capital will require food over cottages for the many hills it has.

@BIC
re: dingding
He did say he was quite busy during weeks and mostly had free time on weekends.
IMO we should go with his previous vote. Same for nishant, it's been too long.

Writing first.