SGOTM 12 - Plastic Ducks

[hydraculas]

Hmm...so many fallouts...I think Serfdom would be very useful in this game!
Seems really likely that DG and us are only two civs on the Island...which means lots of land for cities...

No wonder yet? I begin to dream again...Is there a possibility that we can oracle something even bigger than CS ?

 

[Duckweed]

Either a U turn also or inaccessible from North. We can park the warrior on the PH left, it should block DG for a while.

The ruin site north of SP seems best as 3rd city. We need quite a few galleys and WBs.

Who's next? BIC has done enough test runs to make it through.

 

[kossin]

Hmm...so many fallouts...I think Serfdom would be very useful in this game!
Seems really likely that DG and us are only two civs on the Island...which means lots of land for cities...

No wonder yet? I begin to dream again...Is there a possibility that we can oracle something even bigger than CS ?

Sure we can grab something bigger than CS... but would it actually be more useful?

 

[hydraculas]

Like Astronomy? I don't know...If each AI sign open borders, it is attractive. But considering AIs at war...
Maybe it will not that useful at that time, since we need hammers to REX.

Sure we can grab something bigger than CS... but would it actually be more useful?

 

[kossin]

Either a U turn also or inaccessible from North. We can park the warrior on the PH left, it should block DG for a while.

The ruin site north of SP seems best as 3rd city. We need quite a few galleys and WBs.

Who's next? BIC has done enough test runs to make it through.

nishant was up next in the roster but he hasn't been too much around. Either busy, Civ 5 or whatever...

If BIC has free time and wants to try it then why not... Basically, anyone that can and wants it.

@hydraculas
Maybe if we had retained some of the pre-requisites but otherwise Astronomy is just too far off... As you say we'll need hammers anyway to REX

 

[BornInCantaloup]

Good exploration, Kossin !
That no wonder has been built yet is indeed a good news.

If BIC has free time and wants to try it then why not... Basically, anyone that can and wants it.

I'll be away from Saturday at noon to Monday evening but, if you don't mind that, yes, I could take this set. I don't mind if somebody else takes it, though.


Regardless : issues for the next set (vote & discuss !) :

1) 3rd city, yes or no ? Where ?
The city ruins south of the silver looks great to me. The happy resource isn't so important to us at the moment but this is the site with the best commerce output.
We could also try to nab the pigs to the south-east. I'm unsure what would be the best location for this, though.
A city closer to the capital has some merits as well (less unhealthiness) and could probably make a production city (3 or 4 west of the capital ?). Problem : we do not have Bronze Working and certainly do not want to settle on grassland copper...

2) GLH, yes or nor ? Where ?
I was doubting about the GLH yesterday but now we can bet we will complete it before the AIs. There also is this island we can see to the North (or chain of islands. Flying camera revealed land to the North East of the capital). Odds are we could have 3 cities settled on another landmass, meaning 3 traderoutes yielding 2C.
St Petersbourg still looks like the best location to me.

3) Techpath ?
Sailing is linked to the GLH issue. But given the fallout, it may also ease the workers management (connexion through coast).
Sailing --> Priesthood. Insert Masonry when necessary.
How do we get to Priesthood ? Via Polytheism or Meditation ? I cannot foresee strong advantages of going Polytheism, so I'd say Meditation.

4) Capital's management ?
Finish worker, warrior. I think this is granted. What next ?
I'd favour Library --> Worker --> Worker --> Settler --> Oracle, I think.
Worker --> Library --> Worker --> Settler --> Oracle is also doable, as per Hydraculas suggestion.

Related : do we want to produce a GS in the capital asap ? At size 5, Moscow would work Cow, Cow, Gold + 2 Scientists. St Petersbourg would work the 2nd gold all the while. Note this is the way to generate the best beakers output.
However it hurts our production badly (workers, settlers) and may have repercussions on the number of workers we want to/can build (4 workers and not 5, maybe), as well as on the tiles we will work to grow the capital.
I didn't run enough tests with 4 workers, but here's the deal with 3 :
If we consider Rice > Silk > Horse, then we can grow to 5 and complete the library on T57 and get an Academy on T74. If we want the academy, I think this is the way to go.
If we consider Rice > Horse > Silk, then we can grow to 5 we can complete the library earlier (T54 iirc ; not sure) and grow to 5 on T59 (academy on T76). If we prefer to produce faster workers/settlers, this option is probably superior.

@ Hydraculas : Do you have some notes regarding the turns we can grow to 5 / complete the library with a 4 workers approach ? Iirc that's around T60. T60 is pretty good if we consider there's an additionnal worker. However the cost is a slower growth in city 2, meaning we won't be able to run 2 scientists in the capital straight away. Am I right ?

Summary :
Build orders ? 3 or 4 workers.
Tiles preference ? Silk vs horse.
Academy vs production ? tech rate vs expansion rate.

5) Set length ?
Hmmm...


If you want to raise other issues, please, do

 

[BornInCantaloup]

Slightly edited testgame :
I didn't play it through to avoid ruining Kossin's day Didn't touch much the French territory but I think our territory is quite accurate.
Hope that gains you some time !


@ North route to De Gaulle : That is very possible.
I believe the northern warrior should check this in priority.

 

[kossin]

I need to actually try out some tests before saying something credible otherwise...

1) 3rd city by 2x deer+silver looks to be worthwhile but I'm not certain of it. Another option would grab more health resources...

2) St-Pete... not enough trees to do it elsewhere

3) Assuming St-Pete goes with Lighthouse next then Sailing>...>PH via Meditation

4) This one will come from testing. Normally I went for fastest Academy (Rice>Silk>Horse) but since we might want to get a few more hammers maybe horse>silk for a few turns... to enable another settler and at least another worker

5) Depends on 3+4

@Test game

I started updating it last night after playing but I had some more pressing things to do and then sleep came

 

[BornInCantaloup]

1) Well, it seems we have the choice between pigs and deer, as far as health resources are concerned. Or do we have any other choice ?
Where would you settle the pigs ? I feel uneasy on this matter because of De Gaulle's culture and our capital location (if we share the rice, I fear we will end up wasting tiles).


@ Testgame : depending on how much you advanced it, you may want to check my version

 

[kossin]

1) Well, it seems we have the choice between pigs and deer, as far as health resources are concerned. Or do we have any other choice ?
Where would you settle the pigs ? I feel uneasy on this matter because of De Gaulle's culture and our capital location (if we share the rice, I fear we will end up wasting tiles).


@ Testgame : depending on how much you advanced it, you may want to check my version

Done now

Now I really need to clean up my attachments...

Pigs: remember it's a holy city, in about 40 or less turns he'll get another border pop we can't fight off that culture even with Creative (20+7 vs 20+2~4) so it's a no-no until we get his Capital

 

[Duckweed]

1. In my test, I let capital produce 4th worker while hiring 2 scientists, the alternative is a settler. However, I doubt it's feasible since we have to let SP grow to size 6 to work 2 ivories and 2 hills as soon as possible and that needs all 4 workers.

2. GLH -- yes. It's very clear that we can settled more than 10+ good coastal cities. From T90 to T200, if we get an average of 5~10 cities and the gain is (5~10)*2*110 = 1100~2200C. 1 island site found (which is guaranteed now) will increase the gain to 1650~3300C to the maximum of 6600C with 4 islands found. The gain is greater than I have expected. The only concern is that whether we can get it.

3. Tech path -- Sailing->Mys->Med->PH->Masonry->CoL->Math

4. You can't produce that many things while hiring 2 scientists. All you could produce is
Lib->Warrior->Chariot (part) (before size 5)->Worker/Oracle 1 turn->finish chariot->Oracle->(1 turn of settler)
From size 3 to 4, 3rd citizen works on horse tile until 1 turn to size 4 and change to silk tile. Next turn, the fallout on Rice is cleared, 4th citizen on Rice. When the fish claimed, let SP work on the gold mine for 1 more turn. Next turn capital can take gold mine and grow to size 5 on T58.

5. To Masonry probably.

6. warriors move?

 

[kossin]

One concern for GLH is AI city size... iIrc Washington is at size 8 already. If Roosie decides to grab GLH then our chances look pretty grim.

5. I'd argue to stop before Masonry or maybe before (just a pit stop) to re-evaluate the situation but up to Masonry can be planned without too much difficulty.

6. One warrior can harass DG (pillage? steal worker? doubtful but he can just hang around).
Other warrior should turn south-west to continue exploring the fog in that area while moving towards DG.

Probably keep 3rd warrior close to capital.

 

[kossin]

Double Post

 

[BornInCantaloup]

1. 3rd city.
If the capital hires two scientists, it can produce Worker + Settler/Worker at most. However, 4 workers is not enough to manage the 3 cities.
So if we want the Academy AND the 3rd city, I guess St Pet should contribute at least a settler/worker.

4. Moscow's management.
I'm doing pretty much the same thing (still trying stuff). However, if we work the silk for 1 turn, it should be when we complete the 3rd warrior. Since hammers are doubled when building the library, better work the horse

6. Warrior moves.
- Warrior near De Gaulle remains nearby, trying to go on hills to spot archers and pillages stuff if it can.
- Warrior to the north heads south west towards the coast and maps from there.
- Warrior from capital goes clear city ruins north of SP and then ? maybe goes map the south east... Depends if we get a 4th or not.

 

[Duckweed]

1. 3rd city.
If the capital hires two scientists, it can produce Worker + Settler/Worker at most. However, 4 workers is not enough to manage the 3 cities.
So if we want the Academy AND the 3rd city, I guess St Pet should contribute at least a settler/worker.

4. Moscow's management.
I'm doing pretty much the same thing (still trying stuff). However, if we work the silk for 1 turn, it should be when we complete the 3rd warrior. Since hammers are doubled when building the library, better work the horse

6. Warrior moves.
- Warrior near De Gaulle remains nearby, trying to go on hills to spot archers and pillages stuff if it can.
- Warrior to the north heads south west towards the coast and maps from there.
- Warrior from capital goes clear city ruins north of SP and then ? maybe goes map the south east... Depends if we get a 4th or not.

3. If we want GLH, then no 3rd city. My new test achieved 825 Oracle and 650BC GLH
4. Yes.
6.
-- Warrior near Paris goes 1W to PH and stay there, the spot it stays now is dangerous since french archer can attack through road. I don't think it could pillage as there should be several archers in Paris already.
-- North warrior heads south and then west along the coast
-- 3rd warrior scout southeast coast
-- 4th warrior goes to SP or stays
-- chariot to Paris, but that's next set issue

One concern for GLH is AI city size... iIrc Washington is at size 8 already. If Roosie decides to grab GLH then our chances look pretty grim.

IMO that's a minor factor, he can easily beat us if he decides to chase for GLH even at a smaller size. The major factor is whether he researched Masonry and favors wonder than expansion at that time. That's a random factor which gives us chance to get GLH. (my guess is that we have >50% odd to win)

 

[kossin]

Makes sense to get 4th worker first as we're already struggling at 2 cities.

Looking forward to remaining votes so we can start testing to prepare plan

 

[dingding]

Good play, kossin!

About GLH:

Yes! The return is guaranteed.

I'm not a optimist but I'm pretty sure that GLH is 95% ours:
1) We have a pretty good time for finishing it considering this game: 650BC.
2) DR is a potential back-up of building it for us.
3) Washington at size 8 already, which reduces its chance of being coastal.

The next question is all about the balance between GLH and expansion. More precisely for the next step: how is the return of the early Academy compared to an early city?

Will try to find the answer tonight. FYI I won't be available until Tuesday afterwards.

 

[kossin]

Thanks for the notification dingding, greatly appreciated!

3rd city vs Academy:
(doing numbers in my head, may be wrong)
3rd city: 1C from city tile, 1C from trade route, 6C from silver and 1C from Deer = 9C/turn plus food, plus health plus hammers minus maintenance.

Academy:
[2 gold (15)+palace (8)+traderoute(1)+city tile(1)+horse(1)]*.5 = 13 beakers/turn before CS, 19.5 after CS

Considering the loss in maintenance from second city then clearly the Academy is stronger in beakers plus the extra beakers from running scientists. This will net us Oracle>CS faster for certain, however provided that AIs are indeed slow at Wonders, getting the third city+worker at the exchange of a few turns of Oracle will be stronger for the REX I think, provided there are better tiles than weak silver (3H) and 2 deers (4F)... basically a weak commerce city to spam workers.
But then again running scientists under Bureaucracy is really weak so I think we should have the Academy done before CS is in to not lose hammers in the capital.

 

[kossin]

I checked what it'd take to buy Peace with Gandhi after sacrificing 16 warriors.
Writing+AH isn't enough but Mathematics is enough...

Why am I putting this up: we might want to get as many techs as possible from Gandhi after CS slingshot - namely Alphabet, Pottery and BW.

BW will allow for a single-turn revolt to Bureau+Slavery and the others are self-explicative.

BTW in the new test game the AIs are almost all chasing SH so the wonder dates are pushed pretty far... my hopes the game goes the same way!

 

[BornInCantaloup]

Plan !
I'm confident it will be revised, though
(Beware : other plan next page)
I took 1 extreme : Academy. Focus Moscow on food.
Oracle on T82. St Pet is size 5 with 67 hammers in the GLH that could be completed within 10 more turns. Moscow kept on hiring its 2 scientists so it didn't produce anything other than the 4th worker.

To Masonry :

Spoiler :

T47 :
Worker in St Pet heads back to Moscow (T49).

Research set to 0%.

T48 :
Worker on Gold mine goes to the other gold mine.

Research set to 100%.

T49 :
Worker on gold mine roads.
2 other workers go 1SE of Moscow (could be 1E but 1SE may be better long term).

Moscow works silk.

T50 :
Both workers 1SE of Moscow road.

Moscow starts library.

T51 :
All 3 workers are on the rice tile.

T52 :
All 3 workers clear fallout.

T53 :
Fallout is cleared.

Moscow is size 4 and works rice, silk, cow, cow (growth would be next turn if working the horse).

T54 :
Sailing is done. Research is set to Priesthood (via Meditation). Slider is down to 0%.

Workboat is complete in St Pet. Will improve the Fish.
St Pet starts Lighthouse.

Workers farm the rice.

T55 :
2 workers finish the farm and the last one starts a road.
The fish is improved.

T56 :
Moscow works the gold. St Pet works the fish.
1 worker finishes the road on the rice. The other 2 go clear the fallout on the gold.

T57 :
73 Gold in treasury. Research set to 100%.

3rd worker goes clear fallout on the gold.
Library done in Moscow (size 5). Starts worker.
Moscow works cow, cow, gold and hires 2 scientists.

T58 :
Fallout is cleared on the gold tile. 2 workers mine.


T59 :
Gold mine is done. 1 worker heads to the cow near St Pet.
Moscow works Cow x2, Gold x2 and hires 1 scientist.

T60 :
2 workers on gold tile go to the cow.

T61 :
Worker on cow clears fallout.
St Petersbourg is size 2. Takes back the gold tile.
Moscow runs 2 scientists again.

T62 :
2 workers on cow clear fallout.

T63 :
Cow is cleared. 1 worker pastures.

T64 :
Priesthood is done. Start Masonry.
Worker in Moscow is done. Start Oracle.

Workers on the cow finish the pasture.
Worker from Moscow goes to St Pet.

T65 :
2 workers on the cow road.
Other 2 go to ivory tile SW of St Pet.

T66 :
Masonry is done. 46 gold in treasury. -3gpt ; 40 bpt.
Great scientist due in 5 turns. 22 hammers into the Oracle. St Pet has 34/60 on the Lighthouse and grows to size 3 in 3 turns.

And if we work a few coast tiles in St Pet, this leads to :

Spoiler :

One important thing to determine in this set (related to the 3rd city and academy issues) is the following : until when do we want to save gold ?
Here, research was resumed on T57, which is pretty early and accounts for the Oracle's date.