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SGOTM 12 - Plastic Ducks

Discussion in 'Civ4 - Succession GOTM' started by AlanH, Sep 14, 2010.

  1. Duckweed

    Duckweed Deity

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    @BIC

    Good point on improving Rice before 2nd gold, I'll try some tests to find out.

    @BIC & hydraculas

    1st, I prefer to let 3rd citizen work on gold mine forever since the limited factor of Oracle is commerce, everything should be behind. The earlier Oracle not only leads to higher safety, but also let us gain the Bureo bonus earlier.

    Then, the way I see the difference between improving Horse or Gold 1st is the gain from 3rd citizen, If horse 1st, 3rd citizen can work on the 1F4H1C tile instead of 3H tile for 2 turns, that's 4H2C when producing settler that time. Gold 1st enable 3rd citizen to work on gold mine 2 turns earlier, the difference is 12C vs 4H2C, so the total difference of Gold:Horse is 12C vs 8H4C. Pretty close, right? However, then gold 1st saves 4 worker turns which leads to ..... you know.

    @dingding
    Plan looks good. I will take BIC's suggestion of roading the gold mine instead of forest.(yeah, that's my suggestion before since I thought we need to send both workers back to capital that time. Edit: (Nah, that will delay 2nd city 1 turn)

    Let capital start settler once it hits size 3 and 3rd worker before completing 3rd warrior. The benefit is that capital can finish the 3rd warrior by working on the silk tile while 2nd city is taking the gold tile.

    On EP: I think Gandhi is the best choice since he is the potential best techer. If he does not expand fast enough, we can even consider to gift him a city in our continent so that we can put our EP on good usage.
     
  2. hydraculas

    hydraculas Chieftain

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    Notice that we need to settler>worker>worker when we are pop3. In horse first case, it starts from t39(pop3) to t54(4th worker finished), so we should calculate in this way:

    commerce lost: 6 turns(from t41 to t47) 7*6=42 beakers - 3beakers(city2 1 turn earlier) = 39 beakers
    hammers gain: 15 turns(from t39 to t54) 2*15=30 hammers
    In the gold 1st way, because we take 2 worker to clean the fallout, the rice and horse will delay for a long time.

    So from a static view, it's already 30 hammers against 39 beakers. Considering the snowball effect of the early worker, it just can be more.


     
  3. kossin

    kossin Deity

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    Working the gold all the time is the approach I wanted as well for the commerce (the only exception I can think of is to gain 1 turn of growth to work 2 golds 1 turn earlier) to maximize commerce.

    The earliest Oracle comes from maximizing the # of turns both gold tiles are worked. We can focus on hammers/food afterwards.

    Regarding GS: we don't have much choice but to do it in Moscow unless we kiss goodbye to GLH.

    @hydraculas:
    I think it's clear that we're sacrificing hammers/food by not improving the horse in favor of the gold...
    The decision is whether or not we want to sacrifice them to get Oracle earlier to have a better shot at CS slingshot.
     
  4. hydraculas

    hydraculas Chieftain

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    @Duckweed

    If you wanna make workers build the 2nd gold mine before the rice and take use of it while the capital producing 3rd and 4th worker, the rice will be too late and I can't see the date when the capital grow to 5.
     
  5. hydraculas

    hydraculas Chieftain

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    So tell me the details. When t47 your city2 settled and take your gold mine, what tile will your pop3 work on? You can only work on the forest and 2 workers are turning back on the road from city2 to city1.

    Then what will you choose? If you choose gold mine, when your 4th worker finished, your rice is not finished and you need +4/26 -> 7turns to get pop4, that's too long.

    Let's kiss goodbye to GLH. GS at city2 will maximize our tech income, while 2 gold mines in city1.

     
  6. hydraculas

    hydraculas Chieftain

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    Moreover, Oracling CS is quite a long term. A good exploitation of coast or noble metal city3 may not delay the process, even accelerate the process.
     
  7. BornInCantaloup

    BornInCantaloup Agent of Chaos

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    Testrun to T58 :
    Improved the Horses.
    Roaded the gold 1N.
    Settled 2nd city on T47 (gold improved).
    2 workers head back to the capital : road 1E + rice.
    Build 3rd worker, then completes 3rd warrior.
    Start library, not 4th worker.
    Capital grows to size 4 on T54.
    Library is done on T55, the rice is improved.
    Fish is improved on T56 and the capital works the Gold.
    Capital grows to size 5 on T58, second gold improved. 29 hammers were invested into additionnal warriors.

    Spoiler :



    Downside : city 2 will have a few turns of unhealthiness (if we road both gold tiles, then the capital grows to 5 on T59 with the 2nd gold improved, but we can manage unhealthiness in the 2nd city).

    Techpath :
    With 3 workers only, Writing comes before Sailing. But... there's little reason to tech Sailing first even with 4 workers.
    Mysticism, etc. weren't researched.

    @ Duckweed :
    Maybe we shouldn't focus too much on the settling date of the 2nd city... What may be more important is to time the capital's growth with the improvement of the fish.
    Roading the forest is indeed faster to settle the 2nd city, but roading the gold 1N allows to improve it faster after the rice is done.
    Having the gold roaded isn't important if we stun our growth with the 4th worker, but if we go with 3 (it seems we can), then it may be...


    The save is attached if you want to get this to T68... (some gold was saved between the completion of Sailing and growth to size 5)
     

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  8. hydraculas

    hydraculas Chieftain

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    @ BIC
    3 workers will surely bring a faster pop5. But I think 4 workers is a more flexible way. With 4 workers, we can make city2 a faster development and we have more choices, such as cleaning the fallout for city3 or even whipping(when something happened).

    When you grow from 3 to 4, the rice is no finished. So It's just 2 turns slower for 4-workers plan grow to pop5.
     
  9. BornInCantaloup

    BornInCantaloup Agent of Chaos

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    True, just trying to get on par in commerce with gold first :)
     
  10. hydraculas

    hydraculas Chieftain

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    And I plan to produce library after wb in city2. Around t72 city2 will grow into pop4 and we can ran two scientists. That will step up our tech income over +45 and we will get a GS around t88.
     
  11. kossin

    kossin Deity

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    Which brings us back to a post #7 of the thread.

    And now we need votes.

    Do you want to attempt the GLH?

    If yes, it forces our hand Fishing>Sailing, skip horse.
    If no, we can decide another path. Fishing>Pottery>Writing or whatever, improve horse.

    So, Gentlemen, please post your votes in the next 24 hours about GLH YES or GLH NO. I'd like to get everyone's opinion on this. We are 6 without Bugg so if we reach a tie we'll give it a bit more time before leaving the decision to the set player.

    If you have time, support your answer with numbers/test save.
     
  12. hydraculas

    hydraculas Chieftain

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    NO.
    Repaid rate is too low. Cost 156 beakers and 200 hammers and get an uncertain return. I doubt there are enough cities for foreign trade routes after currency since AI may have a slower expanding.(due to wars and fallout) I don't know when AIs will sign open borders. I think 300+ gold will be even better than building GLH.

     
  13. Duckweed

    Duckweed Deity

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    @BIC

    I tried your 3 workers approach to T58 but skip the horse improvement and road the forest.

    The difference is 45 beaker ahead but capital is 2 turns short to size5 and worker improvement is 6 turns short and some hammers short (which I think is not important as they are put on warriors). Here's the save on T58.

    However the problem I found was that "when I follow your plan, 2nd city could not be settled on T47 due to the short of worker turns to clear the fallout, but T48. Did I screw the micro somewhere?" Could kossin give it a quick test as I think 3 worker plan is appealing.

    Rice before 2nd gold is good.

    Any 3rd city will slow down the Oracle date.


    Vote on GLH -- yes.
    10~20 coastal cities in this continent without doubt plus being able to OB with inter-continental AIs.
     

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  14. kossin

    kossin Deity

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    Sorry can't tonight currently in bed :)
    Away from home tomorrow so I can't until evening. BIC's plan does sound appealing however, need to check first before saying more.
     
  15. nishant1911

    nishant1911 *hugs*

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    my vote

    glh- no (ok maybe yes:lol:)
    edit: i am not sure so please disregard this. it feels awkward how we are deciding without seeing actual map layout.

    gold before horse- yes


    also i propose we intentionally gift gandhi techs all the way to modern era .
    why?
    we are not going to research all the techs ourselves so if we are going to trade we might as well ensure we get those trades available faster. there was an HOF deity space race submission (don't remember which) which utilized this.
    i believe this significantly speed up the pace to space.
    but i need your thoughts on this
     
  16. dingding

    dingding Prince

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    With or without you – GLH :

    Comparing two options: Oracle=>CS with GLH and without GLH:

    1)
    If skip GLH, we saves two techs (Sailing and Masonry, 280b) which accelerates CS by 8-10 turns (with bpt = 26-32). I take 6 turns as the pessimist consideration.

    First Gain = 23 * 6 turns = 140b accordingly.

    2)
    GLH is worth 1 settler + 3 workers. We can consider that skipping GLH can accelerate our expansion – in other word, every city afterwards – by 10-15 turns. (Note that I mean the new cities can be FUNCTIONAL in advance of 10-15 turns – as far as we can see, cities without fresh water need cleaning at least 4 fallout before being free from unearthliness.)

    If no offshore city settled, I don’t envisage that each city can gain more than 2 cpt from GLH for 1) AI focuses on military aspect instead of expansion; 2) AI is incapable handling micro of removing the fallout (we don’t even know if they can remove it); 3) AI are far enough to be contacted; 4) Need good effort to please them and OB.

    Let’s take 2.5 cpt of gain per coastal city as a result of GLH, considering the possibility to build an offshore city.

    3)
    Without GLH, the 2nd city can help to produce the GS. Either it helps the growth of Moscow, or contributes to the expansion, or accelerates the GS. Hard to evaluate it, let’s skip it since it’s not major.

    Main question becomes: can the acceleration of every city by 10-15 turns cover the loss from losing GLH (2.5 cpt) + 10-15 turns of maintenance fees, . My answer is YES. We can see the game designer gave good sites for settlement, new city = ressource(s) + 2-3 cpt + 1 pop, which covers partly the maintenance fees. Suppose that the new city works on a cottage, after 10 turns it can produces 2cpt, and nearly hits size 2. True that expansion before Oracle might affects the CS date, but skipping GLH permit the second city to contribute to the research (hiring scientists) so I don't think it can delay for much (moreover, I took the pessimist estimation of 6 turns already).Hence my vote for NO GLH.

    You also get my vote for GOLD FIRST. However I may change my mind when I run more tests tonight.
     
  17. BornInCantaloup

    BornInCantaloup Agent of Chaos

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    I'll say yes for the GLH. The best case scenario involves getting the GLH. It is more risky regarding the Oracle, though. So I won't complain if we don't try it/put the idea on standby.
    However, we're not forced to go Fishing>Sailing skipping the horse. My last testrun has the GLH in mind.
    Improving the horse and going Fishing>Writing>Sailing>Myst>Masonry would be alright.

    Regarding City 2 and GLH, beakers really are not a problem. Only hammers are.

    If you take a look at Hydraculas' testruns to t68, you can see we're not far from having too many workers (5 for 2 cities, with most improvements done). If we tighten up the workforce a bit, we could time a 2nd settler after we've reached 4 workers (maybe hiring scientists in the capital to maximize commerce output and, ideally, get the settler around the time we have Priesthood). If we don't go for the GLH, we will have something closer to 5 cities than 3 by the time we Oracle something.
     
  18. BornInCantaloup

    BornInCantaloup Agent of Chaos

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    I don't recall everything regarding the gold-first approach, but :
    Maybe you finished improving the gold tile with both workers ? I think you have to send one worker ahead to clear the fallout.
    If you don't, then you need to send both workers and they end up stuck by city 2, behind the fallout-river-hills.

    Otherwise, yes, gold first can probably manage a 3 worker start and get a quicker growth for a faster use of the 2nd goldmine. And also making it easier to share the 1st goldmine between city 2 and capital. Sharing the 1st gold and working the 2nd asap is just as important, commerce-wise, as settling the 2nd city early. I'm not sure what my favourite option is, but I feel growth is a big problem with the gold first + 4 workers approach.
    Leaving the horse unimproved may mean the rice will be improved earlier... hmmm... I don't have time to test right now but I will do so in some hours. If we tighten up the workforce, though, then getting the workers out sooner (horse improved) is more and more crucial.

    For easier reference to testruns, could we state on what turns what improvements are done ? (optional : state on what turns cities grow)
     
  19. Duckweed

    Duckweed Deity

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    My answer to this question is also yes, however the question itself does not stands. With GLH, coastal cities does not require many workers, it can work on the water tiles. So we can focus on pumping settlers, which disqualifies your more earlier every city argument. With GLH, to certain point, more cities on the opposite site.
    Don't have time now, can get to this later.
     
  20. kossin

    kossin Deity

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    GLH
    Yay - Duckweed, BIC
    Nay - hydraculas, dingding
    uncertain - nishant1911

    I'm always loving the GLH however here I am not certain as well. We can expect it to be useful for ~100 turns or so but with a lot of 1:commerce: traderoutes only I'd think. With early Corporations, its usefulness is further decreased.

    I am not convinced we can actually expand much faster without building it... I mean, I know we're putting 200+60 hammers for that alone and using scientists in city 2 vs city 1 but all we can do is build workers! Building extra settlers will add much maintenance so at best they'll be settled 1~2 turns before we Oracle CS.

    In my tests, GLH was usually done 4~6 turns after Oracle. Another thing not taken account of is scientists in city 2... those eat hammers that would normally go on GLH... 17 turns for a GS is 17*6 hammers, 102 and then a few more hammers because of the slowed growth (+1 food per Ivory).... 102H+34F. Let's estimate the actual loss hammers as 120H from running scientists instead of building GLH.
    Meaning we're only 80H or so behind, the city has the ability to get 12~15H/turn, about 20 with food surplus... even when being pessimist, this is only 5 turns delay.
    (Keep in mind the capital is busy slow building Oracle at this point.... I'd still run scientists here to maximize research instead of crappy rice and 1F4H1C horse most likely as well - therefore production in capital isn't so much different)

    With GLH, we know each city becomes profitable faster, even if we get no intercontinental trade route... so what becomes the actual difference of GLH vs no GLH?
    5 turns earlier cities that take longer to be profitable.

    It's a little ambitious to say but I think research-wise there is no difference or an advantage to GLH because it's very doubtful that we can't get any intercontinental trade routes. The only clue we have is Low Sea Level. There is a huge risk however as 1AI still only has 6 land tiles on his capital -> coastal -> prioritize Lighthouse -> Masonry as usual -> GLH. With Roosevelt in the game, odds are pretty high he's the guy with that start -> lower odds for us. I mean, 650BCish is pretty late with Roosevelt in the game... add in the era bonuses and there are pretty good odds it goes by 900~1000BC.

    I'll think about it a couple more hours and vote then.
     

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