I started running sets of test games to see when the AI would build the The Oracle. I also noted when other wonders and religions went for reference. This first set of tests used a default Archipelago map setting (landmass type: archipelago, rather than snaky continents or tiny islands). All other settings were identical to the actual game.
I did not do any city/worker micro during these games, or exploring, or settle a second city, and I followed roughly Neil's build/tech order. My primary intent here was to follow AI behavior given some assumptions about their identities and the map. I specifically avoided trying to build wonders myself.
For the first 3 tests I used Catherine, Frederick, Isabella, Joao, Victoria, and Willem as the AI opponents.
Game 1
Religions: Bud: t12, Hind: t24, Jud: t60
Wonders: SH: t93, Oracle: t102
Game 2
Religions: Bud: t13, Hind: t25, Jud: t69
Wonders: Oracle: t94, GW: t103
Game 3
Religions: Bud: t13, Hind: t28, Jud: t85
Wonders: SH: t97, Oracle: t97
For the next 3 tests I substituted Bismarck (Expansive/Industrious) for Frederick (Philosophical/Organized).
Game 4
Religions: Bud: t12, Hind: t24, Jud: t74
Wonders: SH: t70, GW: t77, Oracle: t109
Game 5
Religions: Bud: t13, Hind: t26, Jud: t81
Wonders: SH: t92, GW: t105, Oracle: t122
Game 6
Religions: Bud: t12, Hind: t52, Jud: t78
Wonders: GW: t119, ToA: 119, Oracle: t128
Given the caveat that these are small sample sizes, the presence of an Industrious leader did not appear to make The Oracle go earlier (It actually went later if Bismarck was on the map

). This map script gives some isolation, but lots of room for expansion. None of the AI's were stuck on small islands when I checked the saves in WB, so that did not necessarily constrain the AIs. Most had 2 or 3 cities settled by turn 100 or so.
I also only saw a barb galley in one of the games (game 5, on turn 84). Granted I did not do any exploring, so the barbs had to find me. But even so, I did meet at least one AI in each game.
In Neil's two tests, we finish The Oracle on turns 103 and 107. It's hard to say what effect the map would have on AI wonder building, but under these settings we'd miss out on The Oracle in the first test case (with Frederick rather than Bismarck on the map). Again, I don't know how much weight to give that conclusion, given all the potential variables.
Also note that I didn't edit the saves at all, so no AI started with the Great Lighthouse, nor was it built in any of these test games (although I did note it being constructed when I checked in WB at the end of a couple of games). I am not sure whether starting with the GLH would alter AI wonderbuilding. They'd certainly tech faster.
I will try the same AI combinations with a Medium & Small map tomorrow. I might also run a couple more games with these settings to see if the German leader really does make a difference. I'd also be glad to hear any other suggestions for changing variables.
@Benigal: Nice test game! I will have to look at it carefully. I am inclined to agree with you however that HR will be a priority. And I normally use WBs for exploration. Mostly because we can get one out faster (we don't need Sailing to be done, and they are fewer hammers than galleys).