SGOTM 15 - Kakumeika

[Manco Capac]

Also, shulec should scout a tile with our scout near Genghis territory in case that helps planning.

About that, does the copper tile is available for settling? If yes, there is a nice forest for chop.

 

[WastinTime]

I'm not sure cyrus and liz are connected. Our scout might be free to roam and the Axes can protect "New GatewayCity". Let's hang on to this one.

 

[Kaitzilla]

We have peace! I had to give 1gpt to get Hatty to offer some gold. I set s reminder to cancel deal in 10T.

Spoiler :

I had previously wanted to see if we could get peace and then do some exploration in Cyrus' land.

We have one question. To increase our chances of getting OB with Genghis, we should gift him our gold resource. Should we the cancel our deal with Hammuragawa? Or give up the gold, which gets us unhappiness in Dehli and PigGems.

Woot! 10 turns of peace! We can now plan for war with Hatty on T131 since she declined to dec Tokugawa. Hopefully her southmost city is coastal. If we get lucky, she won't declare war on T131, and we can get a boat out of the Corn city eventually.

We should consider stealing Code of Laws if we have any spies left after stealing Machinery and Compass from Liz. A caste artist in the Corn city might be just enough culture to steal 2 forest tiles. Then our workers can chop the boat out.

We should also probably close borders between Hatsegawa and Tokugawa. Where did Hatty's stack go on T122? We might need to build a counter stack before T131 in our homeland to kill it if it is going to wander our lands.

Nice job on the spot up north. I think we should protect it with both axes as WastinTime mentioned and save the Hindu missionary to put on a caravel for unknown AI #1. We might scout a good place to put another city east of Cyrus using the backup settler heading up through Shaka's lands.


I still believe the (Liberate) + beg plan was the correct choice for our situation. I'd like to thank WastinTime for saving us once again from a surprise war dec (#1 cause of lost civ games), and will try out his plan next month when the SGOTM is over from the T121 save to see what would have happened if we had chose the other path .

I'd also like to thank Shulec for carefully considering all the options and making a very tough call. This has been a grueling couple of days.

 

[mabraham]

Shoot, I was too slow to propose one more argument, so I'll just accept the team's decision.
You all certainly did not take it lightly, had great research and testing, and opted for the safe play. I know we're all burnt out on this discussion, but when you have a minute, if you could humor me, ask yourself this:

Pretend the units had teleported to Hats' territory with the embargo, I'm curious would have been your suggestion:
a) try to hold Gateway for the t127 boat...gambling hats won't DoW until the SoD is back in play?
b) liberate and beg for peace anyway even though her SoD is 10 turns away.

If you said b) then sleep well, because the team did the right thing.

But if, like me, you would have gambled with a) then this could be our gold medal mistake.

I'd have done a) if testing of the teleport-to-east scenario supported it. At the end of the game, you'll have a chance to prove we could have gotten the gold faster!

 

[Manco Capac]

But if, like me, you would have gambled with a) then this could be our gold medal mistake.

I just counted the number of tiles between her mother lands and Hatshe's stack and I counted 7.5 tiles (Liz DrillIII's archer) . Interestingly, it is lower than 9 tiles. I wonder what would have been the result.

Wait, I'll test. I just hope it'll end to nothing concrete.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Shoot, I was too slow to propose one more argument, so I'll just accept the team's decision.
You all certainly did not take it lightly, had great research and testing, and opted for the safe play. I know we're all burnt out on this discussion, but when you have a minute, if you could humor me, ask yourself this:

Pretend the units had teleported to Hats' territory with the embargo, I'm curious would have been your suggestion:
a) try to hold Gateway for the t127 boat...gambling hats won't DoW until the SoD is back in play?
b) liberate and beg for peace anyway even though her SoD is 10 turns away.

If you said b) then sleep well, because the team did the right thing.

But if, like me, you would have gambled with a) then this could be our gold medal mistake.

If the stack had teleported back to Hatty's territory, I would have gotten out my lucky Half Dollar coin, flipped it, then went for a walk before it hit the ground for a few hours.

 

[mabraham]

I'm not sure cyrus and liz are connected. Our scout might be free to roam and the Axes can protect "New GatewayCity". Let's hang on to this one.

Cyrus captured these barbarian cities, and I'd bet he didn't do it with a naval assault. So I think he shares our land mass (and so does Liz). I do agree we want to defend the Cyrus settle site.

 

[Kaitzilla]

About that, does the copper tile is available for settling? If yes, there is a nice forest for chop.

We want to settle the coastline so we can build boats

The evil mapmaker put iceblocks all over the place dividing the ocean into who knows how many seperate pieces. The more boats in more places, the better our odds of spreading Hindu to the last two AI. DanF mentioned that they are certainly not Gawas.

 

[Manco Capac]

^

I mean teh coast copper next to Genghisgawa's culture, which value on city tile is 2 hammers and has a forest for chop. :-/

I mostly understand the goals of the team and I saw multiple the present saves (over 10 times).

 

[WastinTime]

I'd have done a) if testing of the teleport-to-east scenario supported it. At the end of the game, you'll have a chance to prove we could have gotten the gold faster!

I apologize again for not being able to drop this discussion. Feel free to ignore the post. It is water under the bridge, but I got to say it, or I'll lose sleep tonight

I was afraid (a) would be a popular answer. This saddens me, because I feel I could have convinced those who prefer (a) to do "embargo first". There was no risk. We could simply do "liberate/peace" the embargo didn't work like we hoped.

I can understand the people who simply wanted to avoid war with Hats at all costs, skipping the embargo first, because it didn't matter to them where the units went. But affinity for the (a) option means you should have been on the embargo side of the discussion.

It pains me to hear that people would have changed their vote if only they had known where the SoD would go, because we could have easily checked first. Yea, we had to give up the "Hats DoW Toku" possibility which didn't happen anyway (hindsight).

 

[Manco Capac]

It pains me to hear that people would have changed their vote if only they had known where the SoD would go, because we could have easily checked first.

Me first under new light I just saw.

Good night. I'm done...

I was gullible as always...Wastin I believe you now.

 

[WastinTime]

Cyrus captured these barbarian cities, and I'd bet he didn't do it with a naval assault. So I think he shares our land mass (and so does Liz). I do agree we want to defend the Cyrus settle site.

yea, I agree we are on the same land mass, but I'm just saying I suspect Cyrus has no shared border with Liz. We aren't going to see her units on this side of the horseshoe (but I haven't researched it too closely.)

 

[Kaitzilla]

I'd have done a) if testing of the teleport-to-east scenario supported it. At the end of the game, you'll have a chance to prove we could have gotten the gold faster!

I encountered evidence in my flawed test game here of the SoD giving a grace period of a few turns until it reached simulated Gateway City (Conclusion #2). In the real game, this might have been as large as 9-10 turns.

Later, I was uncertain if Hatsegawa would do the same with her SoD, or would capture Gateway earlier with a 2nd hidden nearby SoD or a war chariot since she is more aggressive than Joao.

When more evidence came that the SoD would almost certainly be teleported to our corn, I threw my weight behind the (Liberate) first plan.

 

[WastinTime]

I'd have done a) if testing of the teleport-to-east scenario supported it. At the end of the game, you'll have a chance to prove we could have gotten the gold faster!

I almost missed it....Yes, we will still get the gold! (just not as fast) Good attitude!

Good night. Good Luck (are more turns being played tonight?)

 

[Kaitzilla]

Here is a screenshot dump of most of our empire and all of Hatty's on T122:

Spoiler :

@Tachywaxon - Ya, 1N1W of that copper up near Ghenghis might be a good settler spot. The copper itself is probably too close to Ghenghis' city to the east to settle.

Since war is almost certain with Hatty on T131 or soon after, maybe we should have one army going east instead of one going east and one going west?

Also, hopefully Tokugawa doesn't put his axe 2E of Dehli close to LizTown around T127. That would be annoying!

 

[WastinTime]

hatty might find someone else to attack by then or we can probably do the embargo block.

We don't need to hold corn/coastal city long. Can we steal those forests? or are we going to have to whip? Any projections yet on the caravel arrival?

 

[Kaitzilla]

hatty might find someone else to attack by then or we can probably do the embargo block.

We don't need to hold corn/coastal city long. Can we steal those forests? or are we going to have to whip? Any projections yet on the caravel arrival?

Optics should be available to be bulbed by a Great Scientist on T127 if we get lucky. We would have to be sure to not have Code of Laws when we bulbed or we'd get crappy Philosophy instead.

If we get a different great person, then we will have to self research Optics. It costs 780 after the 20% discount from knowing Compass. If we do the embargo and get 90 gold from Hatsegawa for currency, then we should have enough gold to achieve 460 against Liz on T123 if we use all of it. By T126 the golden age will end and we should have around 360 gold saved up. Assuming our gpt drops by 30, then we should achieve Optics by T131ish if we beg a small amount of gold from Hamma or sell Theology for more gold.

**Edit** Argg, we can't move to 100% science slider until we steal Compass no matter how much gold we have. What is the max per turn our empire can run outside of golden age? Optics will be complete between T133-T136 depending on how many per turn our empire can generate.



Corn city looks to be settled T127. If we can run Caste sytem and spread Hindu, then it should pop borders on T129 and rapidly start to steal the forests to its south. I am unsure when it would take them over, but we had a similiar situation with Hamsville and it stole Wheat pretty fast from Hamma. Without a caste artist, working the 1 food sea tile until border pop and the copper tile T132 might be best to grow to size 2 on T136 to whip a boat out T137.

Based on what we suspect, open borders with Ghenghis shouldn't be necessary to win the game, so getting him in on the holy war isn't necessary. If we don't have the boat by T134 and are still at peace, then we should hang onto the city. If we can chop out a boat in Corn city and upgrade it to a caravel by T134, then we should of course gift the city to him to get him into the Holy War. After declaring on Liz again T127 or T128, we will need +2 resources and +1 (Liberate) to get Ghenghigawa to pleased, so natural open borders should become almost impossible after that point. Getting corn city settled is more important than a long shot (Liberate) and open borders with Ghenghigawa.

 

[DanF5771]

Shoot, I was too slow to propose one more argument, so I'll just accept the team's decision.
You all certainly did not take it lightly, had great research and testing, and opted for the safe play. I know we're all burnt out on this discussion, but when you have a minute, if you could humor me, ask yourself this:

Pretend the units had teleported to Hats' territory with the embargo, I'm curious would have been your suggestion:
a) try to hold Gateway for the t127 boat...gambling hats won't DoW until the SoD is back in play?
b) liberate and beg for peace anyway even though her SoD is 10 turns away.

If you said b) then sleep well, because the team did the right thing.

But if, like me, you would have gambled with a) then this could be our gold medal mistake.

I hoped for Hatse to DoW Toku and forget about her war plans against us so that we can pursue our boat building plans from the new city without ruffle. My theory was that the embargo had prevented that DoW, so I was slightly against the 'try embargo first' plan.

Well now my theory is negated.
Perhaps the DoW didn't happen because Hatse was already at war with Liz.

I wish I could have tested things to give better advise ...

But now back to the good get-the-gold attitude.

 

[mabraham]

I apologize again for not being able to drop this discussion. Feel free to ignore the post. It is water under the bridge, but I got to say it, or I'll lose sleep tonight

I was afraid (a) would be a popular answer. This saddens me, because I feel I could have convinced those who prefer (a) to do "embargo first". There was no risk. We could simply do "liberate/peace" the embargo didn't work like we hoped.

No risk, except the supposed reduction of the chance of Hatse DOWing Toku instead, and the small diplo effect of the embargo on our relations with Toku (which may or may not ever matter).

I can understand the people who simply wanted to avoid war with Hats at all costs, skipping the embargo first, because it didn't matter to them where the units went. But affinity for the (a) option means you should have been on the embargo side of the discussion.

It pains me to hear that people would have changed their vote if only they had known where the SoD would go, because we could have easily checked first. Yea, we had to give up the "Hats DoW Toku" possibility which didn't happen anyway (hindsight).

I haven't seen anyone post evidence of correctly constructed test games with things teleporting other than to our culture. (Do point out if I am wrong! ) So I regard the direction of the SoD teleport as known: into our culture. This means the no-risk embargo is also for no gain and possible loss (reduced chance of possible Hatse DOW of Toku). (Tachy's posted several things about teleporting that I have found hard or impossible to understand, unfortunately. I have no idea what prompted her apparent change of heart in post 2711.)

As I said in 2680, when some appropriate tile visibility from Hatse's T94 scout is added to the test game example WastinTime posted in 2675, Joao's stack teleports to our corn after an embargo.

Anyway, onwards and upwards!

Also, I think too many people have been posting observations without stating the conditions under which they made their tests and what they conclude from them. That makes it very hard for people to understand what your point was, and to which part of the discussion it relates. Observations become most valuable when someone outside your head can appreciate them completely and quickly. A few minutes thinking about how best to express it can pay dividends in reducing days of confusion while the team argues about who meant what when.

 

[mabraham]

I hoped for Hatse to DoW Toku and forget about her war plans against us so that we can pursue our boat building plans from the new city without ruffle. My theory was that the embargo had prevented that DoW, so I was slightly against the 'try embargo first' plan.

Well now my theory is negated.
Perhaps the DoW didn't happen because Hatse was already at war with Liz.

For some kinds of war re-planning, an existing war state other than WAR_NOPLAN is required. If Hatse had NOPLAN with respect to Toku, then perhaps the different behaviour is explained. In the test games, Mansa has been non-Buddhist for much of the game, so probably all AIs with different religion have some kind of war plan on him.