SGOTM 15 - Kakumeika

[Kaitzilla]

Maybe with Hammuragawa threatening GhostTown, Hammuragawa will be able to offer Peace terms with Shakagawa in a Gandhi brokered Peace deal on t165.

Sun Tzu Wu

Yes, that is the hope

 

[Kaitzilla]

PPP looks good to me, the switches T163 or T164 that we were discussing earlier are unnecessary and risky. (random spreads to Hamm if he has OR could screw us up for example). So I'm glad you abandoned them.

disbanding the spear in Bulawayo is fine (there is some rare chance shaka switches out of hindu, then at pleased with north would get OB with them and kill our spear--remote but might as well disband him)

you're good to go in my book. I'm going to sleep soon, so I won't be around for any debate after this.

Cool. I'll probably play in the morning in 8 or 9 hours if everyone approves. I wish I could play in 24 hours, but we don't have many days left

I still need someone to double check my vote estimates to make sure my ballpark 82% is really that high and not say 74% because of math error

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

Be sure to move all our military within 3t of LizTown to arrive by t164 and t165 in LizTown. Build military in nearby cities that can get there in time too. A revolt on either t164 (no RL DV option) and t165 (invalid RL DV vote) would be disastrous. It takes a lot of military units to significantly reduce the revolt probability.

Sun Tzu Wu

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

Currently (t163):

Gan 142
Hat  14
Tok  11
Cyr   9
Ham   7
Man   3
Hua   2
Gen   2
Sha none
Eli none
========
Tot 190

RL DV Threshold = (190 * 3) / 4 = 142.5 = 142

Turn 164, before t164 whipping (includes t163 Hindu Missionary whip = -4, GhostTown gift = -2, LizTown Gift = -2):

Gan 134
Hat  14
Tok  11
Cyr   9
Ham   7
Man   3
Hua   2
Gen   2
Sha   2
Eli   1
========
Tot 185

RL DV Threshold = (185 * 3) / 4 = 138.75 = 138; 134 / 185 = 72.43%; 116 / 167 = 69.5%

Turn 164, after t164 whipping (2 * -9P):

Gan 116
Hat  14
Tok  11
Cyr   9
Ham   7
Man   3
Hua   2
Gen   2
Sha   2
Eli   1
========
Tot 167

RL DV Threshold = (167 * 3) / 4 = 125.25 = 125; 116 / 167 = 69.5%


Turn 165, Spam Akkad 10P + Duz-Kurgalzu 8P + BabsTown 8P; 2 * (10 + 8 + 8) + 7 = 59 more Votes for Hammuragawa, including conversion to Hinduism:

Gan 116
Hat  14
Tok  11
Cyr   9
Ham  66
Man   3
Hua   2
Gen   2
Sha   2
Eli   1
========
Tot 226

RL DV Threshold = (226 * 3) / 4 = 169.5 = 169; (116 + 66) / 226 = 80.5%

Looks good!

Sun Tzu Wu

 

[bcool]

So why do we have to whip down to 70%? Isn't going this low somewhat risky?

If the spies fail to convert Hamm to OR or Hinduism than it could be quite bad no? (we will in all likelihood be able to convert him via diplomacy, so this isn't much of a concern)

Perhaps we only need to whip down to 72%? As long as it is less than 75% we are okay right?

I guess I'm just curious why we need to whip down to 70% instead of 72%.

 

[mabraham]

Rough Draft PPP T163-T165​

Goal: Get all civs to have a safe Hindu city by T164. Vote for religious victory and use Hammarugawa to get over 75% for a T166 win.

The main problem remains Shakagawa. We currently have only GhostTown to give him for peace and no way to make Hammarugawa not take it the very next turn. We cannot get Hamma to forge peace because the option is redded out while he is under siege from Shaka, and we can't get Shaka to do it without a "-4 traded with worst enemy penalty" from Hammugawa.

Hamma's lands and current vote totals:

Spoiler :

T163

1) Move Axe using the galley and Maceman towards Shaka Bacon Bit in preperation to take from Ghenghigawa T164. It should be undefended since Ghenghi and Cyrus have closed borders.
2) 2-Pop Whip a Hindu Missionary in DeerGold City. Have it head to Size_8 BabsTown T164.
3) Move one Northern Hindu Missionary to Size_10 Akkad and the other to Size_8 Dur-Kurigalen
4) Halt all city growths. We are currently at 75% of the vote. Dehli builds wealth, DeerGold builds Missionary, all other cities start on Pike/Maceman/Treb for possible whip T164. Start an archer 30 or less unit in LizTown and let it grow to Size 2. Will whip the city to Size 1 before giving to Elizagawa for a peace treaty T164.
5) Disband Spear in Bulawayo so Shaka can't kill itOk I'll let it live and hope Team_AI and Shaka borders stay closed 1 turn. Promote a medic and woody II mace with a few combat promots elsewhere. Keep our stack on forest hilltop next to Bulawayo.

Keeping the stack where it is doesn't do much other than defend our 0-movement units, but when we go to peace with Shaka it will teleport inside Bulawayo, because of our OB with the pair.

6) Move Explorer away from Shaka's SoD near Borsippa.
7) Wealth slider stays at 100%. We are good on espionage against Hammarugawa.
8) Maybe move a military unit to within the BFC of GhostTown for T164 in case we can gift it to Hamma to get threat on GhostTown and maybe a peace treaty between Hamma/Shaka.

T164

1) Declare war on Ghenghigawa and take Shaka Bacon Bit with Mace or Axe.
2) Make peace with Shakagawa for SBB+GhostTown

And gift him axe and mace to defend it from revolts?

3) Purchase peace between Shaka/Hamma by trading Hamma a tech if it is available. If not, then try to bribe Hamma to trade embargo Cyrus so no Hidden Hamma units can take Shaka Bacon Bit.
4) Make peace with Elizagawa for LizTown after whipping the city to Size 1. Sign open borders treaty. Move all nearby military units in to keep it from revolting.

How are we getting OB with Liz? She hates us. What shared war exists? Do we need to bribe someone before that?

Once we have OB, won't we need to gift those units to Liz to have the revolt-suppression effect? Even if we don't have to, how can it hurt to do so? Assuming she will garrison with them.

5) Whip our population down to 70% exactly if first 4 steps go smoothly. Make sure no cities grow, or if the whips cause the food box to be overful and assure growth, whip a bit more.

There's a bunch of differently-sized buildings already on the queues for this purpose. (I chose buildings in case the religion spread didn't take.) Not sure why we want to start units for the same purpose, but it probably doesn't matter.

[6) Move DeerGold's Hindu Missionary to BabsTown.
7) Upload game for team to check that all AI have a Hindu vote and that we are under 75% for the Religious Resolution.

T165

1) Vote Ghandi for Religious Victory.
2) Bribe/Spy flip Hammarugawa to Organized Religion and Hinduism.
3) Infect Dur, Akkad, and BabsTown with Hindu missionaries.
4) The approximately 59 votes that Hamma will have after the spreads and Hindu conversion will give him about 24% of the vote and us about 58% of the vote. That is 82% total.
5) Grow all cities, as we can't possibly reach from 58% to 75% with 240ish votes in the world now.
6) Pray that SBB doesn't flip to Cyrus or the game is ruined if Shaka doesn't have another Hindu City in between T165-T166.


Diplo

Refuse any demands from Shaka as Hamma hates him. Also refuse demands from Liz as Toku hates her.
Grant demands for gold/tech/resources to other Gawas.

Stopping Points

GhostTown or SBB revolt and join Hamma/Cyrus. 20% chance of it happening to one of them between T163-T164, and 1% chance of it happening to both I'd estimate.
Any of steps 1-4 from T164 don't go as planned.
Something unexpected comes up.

Check Every Turn

To Make sure and save!
Borders between angry Hatty and Toku stay closed
Revenge Ghenghis army can't make it through Toku because war just ended, but check they don't have open borders either just in case.

Backup Plans

If we miss T166 win because we can't get Shaka a Hindu city, then North_AI might Liberate Bulawayo back to Shaka in a few turns and the peace treaty prevents us from another shot at Religious Victory until T186. Our stack would get teleported to Cyrus' lands hopefully and we could start invading Shaka again T174. If North_AI keeps Bulawayo, then we can try for T176 win by once again getting Shaka a Hindu City somehow.

If something goes wrong between T165-T166 after we spread like mad and convert Hammarugawa to Hinduism, then the game is ruined as near as I can tell. This would include Shaka losing SBB to Cyrus' culture and not owning GhostTown because Hamma took it T165 or LizTown flipping back to us even though we filled it with our military units.

We'd probably have to DOW Toku to get Buddhist missionaries to re-convert Hammu to Buddhism. So we should probably marshal some spies and troops for that?

Otherwise, looks good.

 

[Kaitzilla]

So why do we have to whip down to 70%? Isn't going this low somewhat risky?

If the spies fail to convert Hamm to OR or Hinduism than it could be quite bad no? (we will in all likelihood be able to convert him via diplomacy, so this isn't much of a concern)

Perhaps we only need to whip down to 72%? As long as it is less than 75% we are okay right?

I guess I'm just curious why we need to whip down to 70% instead of 72%.

The idea was to be absolutely sure the Religous victory showed up T165 as the longer this game goes the worse it gets I feel. Say Hamsville grows to Size 2 on T164 and revolts back to us between T164-T165(4% chance). That is 4 unexpected votes for us. Then all the AI in the world whip their Hindu cities (Gawas are trying their hardest to make us lose).

Hmm. Somewhere in the back of my mind, I figured with 200 Hindu votes in the world, and each of our pop being 2 votes, I figured 5% of 200 would be 10 votes which is 5 of our population, but I see from STW tables that this isn't true. Maybe we can go a tad higher than 70%. If you look carefully at STW's tables, we are 4 votes or 2 pop under the 75% threshold T174 pre-whip, and 9 votes or 4.5 pop under the 75% threshold after whipping away 9 population to reach 69.5%. This makes sense since we are 75% of the Hindu vote. Whipping is only 25% as effective as moving our % around as giving cities/population away. That is why I am so fearful of Hamsville revolting. Adding its 2 pop is like growing our cities by 8 population since it doesn't change the world vote total. Add in the Gawas whipping their Hindu cities and I really favor 69.5% or 70% now.

If the spies and bribes can't both convert Hamma to Organized Religion + Hindu, then yes it means the plan won't work. That is why the mass Hindu spread comes after so we can call the whole thing off if it fails.

@Sun Tzu Wu, great tables of calculations .

 

[Kaitzilla]

Keeping the stack where it is doesn't do much other than defend our 0-movement units, but when we go to peace with Shaka it will teleport inside Bulawayo, because of our OB with the pair.



And gift him axe and mace to defend it from revolts?



How are we getting OB with Liz? She hates us. What shared war exists? Do we need to bribe someone before that?

Once we have OB, won't we need to gift those units to Liz to have the revolt-suppression effect? Even if we don't have to, how can it hurt to do so? Assuming she will garrison with them.



There's a bunch of differently-sized buildings already on the queues for this purpose. (I chose buildings in case the religion spread didn't take.) Not sure why we want to start units for the same purpose, but it probably doesn't matter.



We'd probably have to DOW Toku to get Buddhist missionaries to re-convert Hammu to Buddhism. So we should probably marshal some spies and troops for that?

Otherwise, looks good.

Ya, once we are at peace with Shaka they will teleport into Bulawayo. I now think they will only be staying on that forested Hilltop 1 turn. I will change that woodyII mace to Combat II.

I'm not sure if it is wise to gift the Hindu_Pair any military units while they have a city on the doughnut continent. They went WHEOOHRN against someone a while ago and we don't know who. If it is Shaka, I don't want to take the risk that the Team_AI in all its infinite wisdom declares on Shaka right as we are ending all wars with Shaka.

We share war against Hatsegawa so Liz might open borders right away once she has LizTown and is at peace with us. I will test now whether foreign troops in a city reduce city revolt chance.

I favor military over buildings to whip down to 70% or 71% because we can use them later if something goes wrong. Conquering Tokugawa or someone else to get a Buddist city so we can fill all Hamma cities with Buddism might get him to switch back. That is a great idea if someone loses their only Hindu City between T165-T166.

 

[mabraham]

I'm not sure if it is wise to gift the Hindu_Pair any military units while they have a city on the doughnut continent. They went WHEOOHRN against someone a while ago and we don't know who. If it is Shaka, I don't want to take the risk that the Team_AI in all its infinite wisdom declares on Shaka right as we are ending all wars with Shaka.

At the time they went WHEOOHRN, they were Cautious with us and knew only a few people (Hammu, Hatse, Shaka?) and they were surely all Pleased or higher with us. I seem to recall at the time we were pretty sure we were the target.

I'd also expect a DOW to relate to access to a target city with the city-killing stack - and the units we gift surely won't have that AI script put on them.

At the time of their hypothetical DOW, Shaka will be at peace with us and Hammu (I think) which might discourage them DOWing Shaka.

If we gift them enough units to survive against Shaka's nearby units for the necessary 2 turns, but not enough for the pair to DOW and do any damage to Shaka, I don't see any down side to gifting those units.

We share war against Hatsegawa so Liz might open borders right away once she has LizTown and is at peace with us. I will test now whether foreign troops in a city reduce city revolt chance.

Yeah, if our units will inhibit AI revolts then the question becomes moot.

I favor military over buildings to whip down to 70% or 71% because we can use them later if something goes wrong. Conquering Tokugawa or someone else to get a Buddist city so we can fill all Hamma cities with Buddism might get him to switch back. That is a great idea if someone loses their only Hindu City between T165-T166.

OK

 

[Kaitzilla]

I did a "foreign troops test" in an old testgame on simulated LizTown. LizTown revolted the very next turn after gifting it to Joao but stayed in his hands. Our capital's culture is huge.

The testgame is attached below. The foreign troops really do lower revolt odds.

Maybe we should gift Liz a unit? It might keep LizTown in her hands if it does revolt and go to half hp.

 

[Kaitzilla]

At the time they went WHEOOHRN, they were Cautious with us and knew only a few people (Hammu, Hatse, Shaka?) and they were surely all Pleased or higher with us. I seem to recall at the time we were pretty sure we were the target.

I'd also expect a DOW to relate to access to a target city with the city-killing stack - and the units we gift surely won't have that AI script put on them.

At the time of their hypothetical DOW, Shaka will be at peace with us and Hammu (I think) which might discourage them DOWing Shaka.

If we gift them enough units to survive against Shaka's nearby units for the necessary 2 turns, but not enough for the pair to DOW and do any damage to Shaka, I don't see any down side to gifting those units.



Yeah, if our units will inhibit AI revolts then the question becomes moot.



OK

The foreign troops test seemed to work at lowering revolt odds. I'd be up for gifting North_AI a troop or two T166 if the game goes that far. I think having a home-units garrison prevents prevent a flip in case of a revolt by taking damage until the 3rd revolt but I'm not certain.

Once Shaka owns SBB, we won't have open borders with him and won't be able to use our 2 troops to help prevent revolt there


I've run out of time to play my PPP this morning. I will try it tonight in about 8-9 hours if the team approves. If we are direly pressed for time and someone understands my PPP fully, Bcool can assign them to play my PPP since the latest save has been uploaded to the server and nothing has been touched since. Deadline is sometime on Monday, May 21st.

 

[bcool]

I approve of the plan. And Kaitzilla can finish it in 8-9 hours. If it fails I think Kaitzilla you have the green light for nuking them into the ground

One minor point, since the espionage missions against hamm are so potentially critical we might as well rack up more espionage rather than wealth. Getting more espionage will help increase the odds those missions will be successful by maybe 0.5-1% . yes it is minor but it will help us more than a bit of gold will I suspect.

I'm fine if you go with the PPP as written, the espionage/wealth decision is very unimportant.

 

[WastinTime]

i trust you guys. i am out of town so i can't test anything. bring home the gold!

 

[mabraham]

Go for it Kaitzilla. Make your best guess at any unresolved issues.

If the worst comes to it, then we have some safety net from me being in Australia and being able to play Sunday afternoon when the American crew is asleep Saturday night.

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

Do we still want to consider giving Hammuragawa a Hindu Missionary t163; he will try to convert Babylon with it. If he loses the city under attack by Shakagawa, he will have 22 Buddhist versus 20 Hindu population. We can mitigate this by accepting Hammsville liberation from Hammuragawa, reducing religion ratio to 22 to 19 Buddhist/Hindu.

This will redue the whipping needed and allow our Hindu Population to be larger at end of t164.

Sun Tzu Wu

 

[Kaitzilla]

Do we still want to consider giving Hammuragawa a Hindu Missionary t163; he will try to convert Babylon with it. If he loses the city under attack by Shakagawa, he will have 22 Buddhist versus 20 Hindu population. We can mitigate this by accepting Hammsville liberation from Hammuragawa, reducing religion ratio to 22 to 19 Buddhist/Hindu.

This will redue the whipping needed and allow our Hindu Population to be larger at end of t164.

Sun Tzu Wu

We can't accept a Hammsville liberation until after our spies do their job on T165 for getting Hamma into Hinduism after we bribe him into organized religion. Organized Religion must come first because it allows us to spread Hindu to his cities and maybe bribe him into Hindu with some gold once his Hindu population increases enough.

I don't like flirting 22 Buddist vs. 20 Hindu pop if it means there is a small chance Hamma might switch to Hindu since we would lose the game.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Additional testing has showed that our immense culture pressure from our capital will make LizTown unreliable. It goes into a 10% revolt chance right away, and will pester us IBT T164-T165 and T165-T166. I've attached a testgame where the simulated Liztown revolt progression is demonstrated. Our planned military units that we are sending there will only reduce the revolt chance down to around 5%. So Liztown will have two chances to revolt at 5% odds and if it flips we are toast.

I propose that after signing peace with Elizagawa T164, we gift her an additional 2nd city afterwards. FishTown is the ideal candidate. It is 9 tiles away, has few building, and most importantly is only Size_4. I think we can whip it down to a nub and gift it to Liz safely. She is the worst enemy of maybe Tokugawa or Hatty and we don't care about -4 relations with them.

This 2nd city gift to Liz T164 will mean we won't have to whip much at all to reach 70%. Sun Tzu Wu advized around 9 of our pop being whipped away, but with this city gift we will only need to whip (Need to calculate). I think that with this method, only Shaka losing a Hindu city can ruin us.

**Edit** Bah, Tokugawa has a pikeman near FishTown and is still at war with Liz. Of course . I will need to add bribe one of them to peace with the other to the PPP. Hatty is also still at war with Liz, but she can't reach our lands so no worries there.

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

Additional testing has showed that our immense culture pressure from our capital will make LizTown unreliable. It goes into a 10% revolt chance right away, and will pester us IBT T164-T165 and T165-T166. I've attached a testgame where the simulated Liztown revolt progression is demonstrated. Our planned military units that we are sending there will only reduce the revolt chance down to around 5%. So Liztown will have two chances to revolt at 5% odds and if it flips we are toast.

I propose that after signing peace with Elizagawa T164, we gift her an additional 2nd city afterwards. FishTown is the ideal candidate. It is 9 tiles away, has few building, and most importantly is only Size_4. I think we can whip it down to a nub and gift it to Liz safely. She is the worst enemy of maybe Tokugawa or Hatty and we don't care about -4 relations with them.

This 2nd city gift to Liz T164 will mean we won't have to whip much at all to reach 70%. Sun Tzu Wu advized around 9 of our pop being whipped away, but with this city gift we will only need to whip (Need to calculate). I think that with this method, only Shaka losing a Hindu city can ruin us.

Yes, I would have expected LizTown to revolt with 10% probability each turn without military units to suppress it. I also expected that it would take a lot of military units to bring that down to 5%. Giving a second city is brilliant! Especially FishTown, since it has no Culture from any other city and thus it would be immune to revolt! Definitely whip it down to 1P (-3P in one city!), if possible.

Please also try to arrange for all our cities to fill the granary with "Stop Growth" on; On t165, release the "Stop Growth", so all our cities will grow by one, thus adding 2 votes each to our total. Optionally, give Hammuragawa Deergold City and that should keep us from going over 75%, though I'm sure there would be no risk if we Hindu spam him successfully on turn 165.

Please proceed with the modified plan. You are doing an excellent job of mitigating all risks, when that is possible and to the extent that is possible.

Cancelling Open Borders now (t163 or t164 before gifting LizTown and FishTown) with Tokugawa should take care of any Tokugawa units that may threaten FishTown/LizTown too.

Sun Tzu Wu

 

[Kaitzilla]

I've been testing every idea proposed so far including Hamsville beg/liberate games and I think Sun Tzu Wu might have caught onto something.

It seems that buying peace between two civs with a hugely unbalanced trade might not affect worst enemy diplo penalties. This might solve our last major problem if we buy peace between Shaka/Hamma through Shaka and then give him GhostTown.

Here is the test game. Be sure to give absolutely everything to Isabella for peace with Joao. She is the worst enemy of the entire world and no diplo penalties occur with anyone. Give her a big tech for free though, and everyone dings you with -4 "worst enemy" penalties.

We have to make 100% sure. If we are wrong Hamma goes to +9 with us and we lose T166 win and have to wait until T176.

 

[Kaitzilla]

I need everyone who is available testing if buying peace between civs with a civ who is the worst enemy of the other civ causes a -4 penalty. This would guarantee 100% our T166 win if it turns out to be true I'd say.

**Edit**

Opening and testing in old games like GMjaor 90 etc. So far no diplo hits for buying a peace treaty between civs from a lot of people's worst enemy.

Delaying turnset until this issue is resolved.