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SGOTM 18 - Kakumeika

Discussion in 'Civ4 - Succession GOTM' started by AlanH, Jul 31, 2013.

  1. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    Hrmm, T98 now. Last beg T52 for 70:gold:
    If we begged right now we could get (50+98)*2*power rating(0.95?)/2= 140.6:gold:
    Subtract the 70 we already begged and it would be 70:gold:
    If we played it safe, I am confident we could beg for 60:gold: and get it.

    Begging Mechanics are Here for those who want to check the math.


    If we shared 8 border tiles with Mansa, we could get more like 300:gold: I think with the tripling, but I don't see that happening any time this game.
    If Mansa was in financial trouble, it would be divide by 3 not 2. But that won't be happening this game either :)


    Do we really need to beg? I think trading Gunpowder for Philo will get us all of Mansa's gold.
    I think we should save it for later since our military power will be going up again when Heroic Epic starts churning out units.
     
  2. mabraham

    mabraham Chieftain

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    Power ratio is 0.9854, so 76:gold: would be the theoretical cap, so I'm happy to beg 70:gold:. Gunpowder is still around 10 turns away, which is lots of time for Mansa to spend that cash... Waiting requires us to hope Mansa has even more cash available at some later point...

    Actually we didn't meet Mansa for a few turns, did we? Why 98 for TURNS_KNOWN? yes we did know him on turn 0, magic game conditions
     
  3. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    Mansa still has 1000:gold: in his coffers based off the espionage screen.

    The only reason he is only offering 70+:gold: is that his population isn't big enough and more turns haven't passed to let us see it all.

    As he steadily gets bigger and more time goes by we'll keep seeing him offer more and more gold to us in trading.


    Unless he suffers a population crash or trades all his gold away for a tech, I don't think we will lose a begging opportunity by waiting.



    We've known Mansa since turn 0 ya.

    If we want Mansa to get larger population and offer us more of his gold, maybe we should trade him a spare Corn if we get one. +2 healthiness works great in floodplain cities.
     
  4. mabraham

    mabraham Chieftain

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    Seems reasonable, and consistent with the 90:gold: not disappearing from turn to turn. I know nothing about this mechanic, so given that there's a chance of getting the cash for free with the Philo trade and then begging later when our power has gone up, that seems best to uninformed me.
     
  5. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    Ya, I've been very keen on the idea since Ghpstage discovered it in the Spring.
    I think I understand correctly how it works, but keeping up with the calculations is difficult.
    I last tried it here.

    Calculating Mansa's total gold starts here.
    So with -20% trade routes, +39% distance penalty, and +37% spending penalty, Mansa's capital has roughly 2444/0.8/1.39/1.37= 1604:espionage: base or 2862/3= 534.75 to steal
    Thanks to maps we know Mansa's capital has 11 pop and the empire 26 population. That means 534.75:gold: is 11/26th of his total gold.
    That means as of Turn 95 we know Mansa has 1264:gold: in his bank :D

    A spy in his capital could steal 534.75 of that gold.
    It would start with 1604:espionage: base for the mission and modifiers would vary that.
    Currently, it would cost an awful lot of espionage to steal that 534.75 gold.



    Here is the calculation governing how much :gold: Mansa will offer us in trade on Turn 95:

    According to our T95 maps, Mansa has 26 population.
    Running the calculation on Turn 95:
    First cap is [26*(95+10)*20]/100=546:gold:.
    Second cap is, assuming his maintenance is now -8:gold: per turn. 12turn*-8gpt=-96, subtract off 1264 in his bank and it is 1168:gold:
    First cap is lower so it applies.


    Then we subtract off how much gold we've already gotten from Mansa in begs and trades and that should be how much gold he is offering now.

    70:gold: from a beg.
    200:gold: from trading Mansa Literature (99% sure we did this)
    180:gold: from various Paper+Map+Education trades

    546:gold: - 450:gold: = 96:gold: truncates down to 90:gold:.

    Hmm, screenshot on Turn 95 shows him offering 10:gold:? :confused:
    Curses! Maybe that Pigs for 1:gold: per turn counts against the first cap too. :hmm:
    Did we receive any more gold from Mansa besides those 3 instances linked above?

    **Edit**
    Yes! We traded Metal Casting to Mansa for Theology+80:gold:
    Thanks WastinTime :love:

    So wealth per turn resource trades don't count.

    546:gold: - 530:gold: = 16:gold: truncates down to 10:gold:.

    And what did Mansa offer to us in trade Turn 95?
    Spoiler :



    If an AI doesn't have much gold in their bank, and they have a large empire with large maintenance costs, than the 2nd cap takes over from the 1st cap.
    The times when an AI will suddenly offer 1000:gold: for trading purposes are when they have a huge empire, the gold is there, but the maintenance costs eat up what they will offer you.
    When an AI revolts to change civics, the maintenance costs go to 0 for one turn and wham, tons of gold for trading!
    The other times is fail gold from a wonder or Great Merchant mission happen and you haven't traded with an AI all game because they were poor. But now they are rich and want to share!

    Identifying an AI with a lot of gold and then bribing them into Anarchy to make a tech trade for huge gold is the main Gphstage discovery I'd have liked for us to use this SGOTM, but the only civs with decent amounts of gold to trade are all spiritual and never have Anarchy. (Mansa+Gandhi :sad:)
     
  6. mabraham

    mabraham Chieftain

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    OK, no beg for now!
     
  7. WastinTime

    WastinTime Chieftain Supporter

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    We also got 80 in Theo trade and 140 in Paper
     
  8. WastinTime

    WastinTime Chieftain Supporter

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    "Mansa starts Divine right, which is neither good nor bad, I guess :-( "

    That is very bad. Machinery or Construction or Feudalism=good. How many turns?.
     
  9. mabraham

    mabraham Chieftain

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    9 turns :-(
     
  10. mabraham

    mabraham Chieftain

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    Have been slow building a Buddhist missionary in wheat to send to Gandhi, is that OK?
     
  11. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    :cry: Curse you Mansa! Has to have all the religions. :cry:

    We should probably send 1 over ya.
    If Gandhi's Hindu population gets too high compared to his Buddhist, not only will he switch to Hindu but we will lose the ability to bribe him back to Buddhist.

    Spoiler :



    His 2 main cities have Buddhism so that is good. We can't see the 3rd city yet.
    If we spread Buddhism to one of his new cities before it gets Hinduism, that will prevent a natural spread and Gandhi might just stay in Buddhism :)
     
  12. WastinTime

    WastinTime Chieftain Supporter

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    have you figured out if it will clear Joao's land before we DoW?
     
  13. mabraham

    mabraham Chieftain

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    Ja it will, even if we were to beeline Construction now.
     
  14. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    If Machinery and Construction aren't coming up for trade, maybe we should pause the turnset at the start of T103 with completed Oxford and figure out what to tech next?

    I don't know if Gundpowder is still optimal since Mansa is being such a loser right now.

    Getting Philo and gold is nice but we could sure use catapults going forward.
     
  15. mabraham

    mabraham Chieftain

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    Happy to pause then, in practice i might pause now and finish in the morning.

    I have spreadsheeted that Washington can put 225 fail gold on the NEpic this turn (t100) and still max-OF whip a HA onto a ~t111 MoM needing just the last BFC chop. So that seems good to me, assuming we are prepared to risk some AI sneaking the MoM away from us. Thoughts?
     
  16. mabraham

    mabraham Chieftain

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    OK pausing for ~8 hours at end t100. Save is uploaded. Will start again in the morning. Please let me know your thoughts on the lump of fail gold from Washington (happiness is not so plentiful there, so I am not sure that whipping a pile of units is a great idea there), and whether we should give up on Mansa and tech Constr before Gunpowder, starting T103. We will very likely have enough cash to get that done. There's some fail gold on NEpic in Turfan, too, IIRC. I started an axe from HEpic on the theory that our monoculture is wrong, but there's not really any unit we want to build right now!


    Here is your Session Turn Log from 500 BC to 375 BC:
    Spoiler :

    Turn 95, 500 BC: Logging Game to File: Austin Powers.txt
    Turn 95, 500 BC: You have trained a Trireme in Shark. Work has now begun on a University.

    Turn 96, 475 BC: Buddhism has spread in Ning-hsia.
    Turn 96, 475 BC: The borders of Washington have expanded!
    Turn 96, 475 BC: You have constructed a Forge in Turfan. Work has now begun on a Granary.

    Turn 97, 450 BC: You have constructed a Forge in WheatIron. Work has now begun on a Spearman.
    Turn 97, 450 BC: The borders of Furry have expanded!
    Turn 97, 450 BC: The borders of Karakorum have expanded!
    Turn 97, 450 BC: Taoism has been founded in Timbuktu!
    Turn 97, 450 BC: Mansa Musa has completed The Parthenon!

    Turn 98, 425 BC: Washington will become unhappy on the next turn.
    Turn 98, 425 BC: StoneClam has grown to size 2.
    Turn 98, 425 BC: Mansa Musa will trade Philosophy
    Turn 98, 425 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 30 ℤ for Furry.
    Turn 98, 425 BC: Pigs City will grow to size 7 on the next turn.
    Turn 98, 425 BC: Shark will grow to size 6 on the next turn.
    Turn 98, 425 BC: Washington will grow to size 6 on the next turn.
    Turn 98, 425 BC: Karakorum will grow to size 3 on the next turn.
    Turn 98, 425 BC: Pigs City can no longer work on The Parthenon. The lost ℤ is converted into 12ℴ!

    Turn 99, 400 BC: Pigs City has grown to size 7.
    Turn 99, 400 BC: Shark has grown to size 6.
    Turn 99, 400 BC: Washington has grown to size 6.
    Turn 99, 400 BC: Washington has become unhappy.
    Turn 99, 400 BC: WheatIron can hurry Buddhist Missionary for 1⇴ with 19ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 27 turns.
    Turn 99, 400 BC: Karakorum has grown to size 3.
    Turn 99, 400 BC: Turfan can hurry Granary for 1⇴ with 14ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 17 turns.
    Turn 99, 400 BC: StoneClam can hurry Lighthouse for 1⇴ with 2ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 13 turns.
    Turn 99, 400 BC: The borders of Ning-hsia are about to expand.
    Turn 99, 400 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 30 ℤ for Karakorum.
    Turn 99, 400 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 30 ℤ for Furry.
    Turn 99, 400 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 30 ℤ for Karakorum.
    Turn 99, 400 BC: Capitalist will grow to size 10 on the next turn.
    Turn 99, 400 BC: WheatIron will grow to size 3 on the next turn.
    Turn 99, 400 BC: You have constructed a Buddhist Temple in Capitalist. Work has now begun on a Market.
    Turn 99, 400 BC: The borders of Ning-hsia have expanded!
    Turn 99, 400 BC: You have constructed a Lighthouse in StoneClam. Work has now begun on a Granary.

    Turn 100, 375 BC: Pigs City can hurry Axeman for 1⇴ with 15ℤ overflow, 61ℴ added to the treasury, and +1⇤ for 21 turns.
    Turn 100, 375 BC: Capitalist can hurry Market for 2⇴ with 34ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 19 turns.
    Turn 100, 375 BC: Washington has become happy.
    Turn 100, 375 BC: WheatIron has grown to size 3.
    Turn 100, 375 BC: Karakorum can hurry University for 1⇴ with 24ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 13 turns.
    Turn 100, 375 BC: The borders of Pigs City are about to expand.
    Turn 100, 375 BC: Gandhi will trade Sheep
    Turn 100, 375 BC: Deal Canceled: Fur to Gandhi
    Turn 100, 375 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 30 ℤ for Washington.
    Turn 100, 375 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 30 ℤ for Ning-hsia.
    Turn 100, 375 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 30 ℤ for Furry.
    Turn 100, 375 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 30 ℤ for Ning-hsia.


    other log attached
     

    Attached Files:

  17. WastinTime

    WastinTime Chieftain Supporter

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    My first thought was MoM is not that critical, but it probably will shave many turns off this game if we can sustain an eternal GAge until the end of the game. I think we need to lock this wonder in and not worry about fail gold. I'd be happy to generate fail gold after MoM in Washington, but I suppose we're all done with our wonders by then. What would be the next fail gold opportunity?
     
  18. WastinTime

    WastinTime Chieftain Supporter

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    - Happy to see GK's worker is not chopping (he's mining), and the city is back to size 4 which could mean a 2 pop settler whip. Go GK!

    Capitalist.
    From PPP:
    "t102 wheat, gold, marble, pmine, FP"

    I'm 99% sure this won't work, but I don't know why I'm worried. I'm sure you'll fix it when T102 arrives. You've got everything set up well, Universities coming in, overflow maxed. But I suspect you will need to run my original plan:
    "t102 wheat, gold, marble, pmine, engineer"

    Maybe your spreadsheet doesn't handle the overflow properly? (max 100 raw hammers on University)
     
  19. WastinTime

    WastinTime Chieftain Supporter

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    I think Gunpowder is perfectly timed so that we can see what Mansa picks next. And a Musket has some value when compared to a cat. We don't want to commit to a tech other than GunP until we know what he picks.

    There is real danger that he will refuse to trade Philo! I'd rather not delay Gunpowder another 2 turns for Construction.

    I think we're looking at Gunpowder T108 or probably 109.
    Mansa = DivRight 108 (maybe 107). He could have Construction 109 or 110.
     
  20. WastinTime

    WastinTime Chieftain Supporter

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    Mansa is in war prep. That's new, right? probably good news.
     

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