SGOTM 19 - Also Sprach Sid

[kossin]

I don't mind the cleaning up phase, I'll also have more time by then (and now is not really an option anyway), but the initial assault would go terribly wrong

 

[kossin]

As I recall: LH/wb = 10 water tiles
Galleys+ = 20 water tiles

So we have no choice but to make a city on the north pole and rush buy ships there. The central lake is large enough but there's 3 tiles to cross at one point so it's not possible through there.

This was slightly incomplete. You can also build a workboat for ANY lake size IF it has an improvable resource. (crabs, fish, clams, whales, oil)

Although the AI doesn't seem to know this...

 

[soundjata]

I'd like to play but I really can't. Sorry team.

Main reason as mentioned is RL is too busy (new work, new house next week, coach surfing now with the whole family)
Secondary reason is I can't make Steam work (problem linked with Freebox provider. Pomthom might know about this one.)

I'll let you know if/when this changes.

 

[Folket]

This was slightly incomplete. You can also build a workboat for ANY lake size IF it has an improvable resource. (crabs, fish, clams, whales, oil)

Although the AI doesn't seem to know this...

Can you use that to find oil before you see it?

 

[kossin]

^^No clue.

EDIT: this being said, we can still chain workboats from our core cities that are able to, however galleys+ can only be built at the north pole.

 

[pomthom]

I can take over until next Wednesday or so. Will work out a PPP draft tonight and try to play every day starting tomorrow (or Friday). We have 4 weeks left and ~40 turns to play so we've got time but it would be great if we could keep up a good pace for flexibility. I won't be able to play as efficiently as Duckweed but maybe 15 turns would be a reasonable aim?

 

[Doshin]

15 turns sounds good.

Perhaps you can plan 2 turns one day, play for 2 turns, and so on.

But before we start, we (as a group) need to plan:

• The Forbidden Palace and Taj Mahal build in Aksum. When do we chop? The Taj should be built in the next 10 turns. The earlier the FP, the less maintenance we spend (which is bad in several former Japanese cities). A hammer breakdown would help here.
  
• Builders Phase. Related to the above. Some builds need to be whipped (Courthouses, a few Forges), some chopped (should be in Organized Religion).
  
• GPP Phase. I would like to spend five turns in Pacifism and Caste System before we attack with Cuirassiers. Is this possible?

More broadly, we need approximate targets for generating Great People, an idea of how much time, over the next ~40 turns, we will spend in Pacifism.

It would be nice if the lurkers who haven't played yet try to help with this, since pomthom will be juggling the real game as well.

----

BTW, should we try to steal the barbarian Worker in the north? And Tokugawa's Workers, when they try to connect the Ivory?

 

[Duckweed]

Let me answer some of the these question to clarify my plan during previous playing.

But before we start, we (as a group) need to plan:

• The Forbidden Palace and Taj Mahal build in Aksum. When do we chop? The Taj should be built in the next 10 turns. The earlier the FP, the less maintenance we spend (which is bad in several former Japanese cities). A hammer breakdown would help here.
  
  Due to the plan of 5 turns of CS+Pacifism, I only chopped 2 forests (each forest by 2 workers) into FP while in OR and planned to chop the rest after we are back to OR again. Because of the short of worker forces, if I let all available workers to chop, then we will end with finishing 5 chops outside OR and will still be not enough to complete FP, needs 6 chops. Therefore we will end with 3~4 turns faster of completing FP but losing OR bonus of 6 forests. I chose to save hammers considering the Taj build. I don't think it's necessary to complete Taj in the next 10 turns. Our previous estimation might be too optimistic. T165 victory is a more realistic goal in my opinion.
  
• Builders Phase. Related to the above. Some builds need to be whipped (Courthouses, a few Forges), some chopped (should be in Organized Religion).
  
  Toku's cities won't help the war. Only our original 10 cities could. Most of the infrastructures can be completed by chops, especially those Forges. I don't mind of losing OR bonus of a few forests to complete forges. The reason is because that we have no time to whip infrastructures before MT (6 turns at most and 6 turns in CS). Except capital and Constantinople, all the cities can be whipped for Cuis, however, DH and BS probably can only offer 1 whip.
  
• GPP Phase. I would like to spend five turns in Pacifism and Caste System before we attack with Cuirassiers. Is this possible?

That's what my micro based.

More broadly, we need approximate targets for generating Great People, an idea of how much time, over the next ~40 turns, we will spend in Pacifism.

Play and adjust in the fly. Edit:To me, the most important and unpredictable thing is produce a 3rd type of GP for the last GA, we could hire a Engineer in capital to boost the odd of a GE.

BTW, should we try to steal the barbarian Worker in the north? And Tokugawa's Workers, when they try to connect the Ivory?

That requires worker turns to road as what I did to steal in the south, the worker in BS is chopping. Moreover, that worker is going to finish the mining before we are ready. I am sending a woodmanII axe to the south for Toku's worker. When all the HAs in Lalibela recover, do we want to attack Yeha before Cuis?

On a side note, KK has not research new techs since Machinery, likely to be Engineer or Guild.

 

[Doshin]

Building the Taj in the next 10 turns leads to a 13 turn Golden Age.

If we have 113-pop (?) now, we would stand to gain ~100C and ~40H (?) from the extra turn. Since our population will increase in the next 22 turns, and many cities have just been whipped or recently captured, it is fair to say the gain will be greater. Chopping five Forests outside of Organized Religion is not optimal, so I would prefer to avoid this. However, even a series of inefficient chops would waste just 37H (5 * 30 = 150; 150 * 1.25 = 187.5), and this is already less than the hammer gain of the extra GA turn.

I am not sure how much gold an earlier FP would save, but it will be less than ~100C.

I would favor hiring a Spy in Constantinople on T121 (I think we grow then?). This would be the most useful GP right now.

For safety, we could also consider hiring Artists in Constantinople after the next two Great People. This assumes that: (1) Constantinople next generates a Great Scientist; (2) Case Depart also generates a Great Scientist. I agree that Case Depart should run a Great Engineer ASAP.

Constantinople would then need to run ~800GPP of GArtists, and a GEngineer and GSpy. It has no GP pollution from GScientists or GMerchants.

 

[Duckweed]

Building the Taj in the next 10 turns leads to a 13 turn Golden Age.

If we have 113-pop (?) now, we would stand to gain ~100C and ~40H (?) from the extra turn. Since our population will increase in the next 22 turns, and many cities have just been whipped or recently captured, it is fair to say the gain will be greater. Chopping five Forests outside of Organized Religion is not optimal, so I would prefer to avoid this. However, even a series of inefficient chops would waste just 37H (5 * 30 = 150; 150 * 1.25 = 187.5), and this is already less than the hammer gain of the extra GA turn.

Unless we could chain the 4th GA after 3rd and 2nd, this effect applies to 3rd and 4th GAs.

I am not sure how much gold an earlier FP would save, but it will be less than ~100C.

I would favor hiring a Spy in Constantinople on T121 (I think we grow then?). This would be the most useful GP right now.

For safety, we could also consider hiring Artists in Constantinople after the next two Great People. This assumes that: (1) Constantinople next generates a Great Scientist; (2) Case Depart also generates a Great Scientist. I agree that Case Depart should run a Great Engineer ASAP.

Constantinople would then need to run ~800GPP of GArtists, and a GEngineer and GSpy. It has no GP pollution from GScientists or GMerchants.

Constantinople will produce the 6th GP, therefore, if we want the 3rd GP type, the best bet would be hiring artists.

 

[Doshin]

Unless we could chain the 4th GA after 3rd and 2nd, this effect applies to 3rd and 4th GAs.

It does not, because one turn of the GA would lost by comparison, e.g.:

Yes, it's +1T of GAge in all combinations; MoM or no MoM, Taj finishes on 1st or last turn of GAge, even with counter going from 1 to 0:

Spoiler :

It would apply if we started GA#3 with three Great People, and then built the Taj for GA#4. But (I don't think) we have the population or enough GP-pool control to generate three different types of Great People in the next 10 turns.

Constantinople will produce the 6th GP, therefore, if we want the 3rd GP type, the best bet would be hiring artists.

Yes, but if we generate a Great Artist in Constantinople and then a Great Artist in Case Depart, we have a weak Great Person.

Moreover, the Artist specialists themselves offer less than Scientists or Merchants. Running massed Artists in Constantinople will still lead to ~50/50 odds that we generate a GScientist.

This is why I suggest that we see what specialist #6 Constantinople generates, and then Case Depart (= #7).

If we produce two Great Scientists, we should then start to run GArtists in Constantinople.

 

[Duckweed]

No wonder pomthom and you emphasized of completing Taj during the GA, a Taj bug GA! Good to know. Still waiting longer to start 3rd GA will also gain more from more pops from captured cities and regrowth of our own cities.

Fair about GP plan.

 

[pomthom]

Trying to formulate thoughts on how to tackle the next turns and I am a bit at a loss (+ can't seem to be able to concentrate tonight..)

Some things I am not clear about

• Civics: switch this turn to CS/Pacifism but do we whip anything else first? (2-pop Forge in Cornish? don't see us whipping in our GP farms just before 5 turns in CS/Pacifism..)
  Don't know how to estimate exactly but I think there's a good chance we'll have MT in 5 turns rather than 6 so we won't have another chance to whip before Cuirs
• HA before MT: I think Doshin mentioned "mass" whipping/chopping HAs just before MT, why? We might be in Slavery only if we reah MT in 6
• GP: #6 from Const, #7 from Case Depart, #8 from DH?? (will have to wait for next civics switch to Pacifism)

Will try to write out the hammers in Aksum to see how the timing works but I doubt I'll manage tonight, my brain is not working.
@Duckweed: wait, you prefer delaying the 3rd and 4th GAs?


EDIT: how come TSR's culture is so low?

 

[kossin]

^^Few wonders and Caste Artists to pop borders. Without Oracle, Pyramids is the only arguable wonder that can speed up Education ASAP... TGL ends up being a detour.

HAs will upgrade to cuirassiers, so any hammers invested into HAs will be invested in Cuirassier builds once Gunpowder completes.

~~~

Regarding game finish: I would prefer to get the Taj early as well (not only for the bug, but for the fact that my estimates are usually conservative and 120+10+13+12 = 155; we can always spend a few turns at one point outside GA without too much loss)

GPs:
3 for last GA
1 for Corporation (GM?)
extra GMs/GSs for trade missions/bulbs
---
5~7

We get Economics one for free so 4~6
900~1200 gpp.

I'm eating a bite but will think about it this evening.

 

[Duckweed]

Trying to formulate thoughts on how to tackle the next turns and I am a bit at a loss (+ can't seem to be able to concentrate tonight..)

Some things I am not clear about

• Civics: switch this turn to CS/Pacifism but do we whip anything else first?
  
  I have not planned any whip and tried to complete those infrastructures with chops, as you can see that many workers are chopping. An alternative way is to whip now and save those forests which has the disadvantage of whipping pops during GA. The merit is the OR bonus and we can then bank OF and forest hammers till MT. However, that also means those cities have to build wealth. You can judge the trade off and see which way is better.
  
  (2-pop Forge in Cornish? don't see us whipping in our GP farms just before 5 turns in CS/Pacifism..)
  Don't know how to estimate exactly but I think there's a good chance we'll have MT in 5 turns rather than 6 so we won't have another chance to whip before Cuirs
• HA before MT: I think Doshin mentioned "mass" whipping/chopping HAs just before MT, why? We might be in Slavery only if we reah MT in 6
• GP: #6 from Const, #7 from Case Depart, #8 from DH?? (will have to wait for next civics switch to Pacifism)
  As I mentioned, the thing I care the most is what type of GP from Const and then capital since we need a 3rd type of GP for last GA. Const can still hire scientists.

Will try to write out the hammers in Aksum to see how the timing works but I doubt I'll manage tonight, my brain is not working.
@Duckweed: wait, you prefer delaying the 3rd and 4th GAs?

Yes, I think later 3rd GA offers no less than 1 turn of extra GA from Taj and this allows us to work on better tiles in Askum than hammer tiles to rush.

EDIT: how come TSR's culture is so low?

Either hiring artists or building culture in last set.

 

[Duckweed]

@kossin

I checked TSR saves again and think that we are not that better than their last game due to slower war progress. Beaker rate is 10 turns ahead, but their potential was similar as what we are now. Therefore, even T160 seems too optimistic to me.

 

[kossin]

^^^
By going into research mode right now, we can already hit 1,000+ beakers per turn outside Caste System. (some specialists and build research)

I have no doubt research will increase much more with cottage maturation, Printing Press, new cities and the 1,000bpt average is achievable with not that much trouble. If anything, it is conservative.

I just wish we had some farms in later cities for faster whipping, regrowth and some added specialists.

 

[Duckweed]

You have to count the maintenance cost and future whips. If we can start to attack between T131~135, most captured cities will only come out revolt after T140, that does not leave them too much time to contribute.

I hope your estimation is right, but I really doubt from the comparison. TSR SGOTM18 10 turns later (T130) save had 5 more good cities, more infrastructures like Forges and AP buildings, and more troops that can continue on warring while we need to build from start.

 

[Doshin]

As a preliminary guide towards a GP plan...

(A) City Screens:

Spoiler :

(B) Pacifism

Turn Case Depart Constantinople Dye Hard Bacon Sandwich
120 212/600 (0 specs = +56GPP) 306/600 (7 specs = +72GPP) 153/600 (7 specs = +63GPP) 315/600 (6 specs = +54GPP)
121 268 378 216 369
122 324 450 279 423
123 380 522 342 477
124 436 594 405 531
125 492 666/600 468 585

(C) Post-Pacifism

Assuming that we immediately switch out of Caste/Pacifism, Case Depart now generates 42GPP per turn:

T126: 534/700
T127: 576/700
T128: 618/700
T129: 660/700
T130: 702/700​

T130 marks the end of the present GA.

+56GPP in GA/Pacifism suggests this could produce another Great Person during GA#4, thanks to the Parthenon, but it will be late and @ 1200GP. We will need to run some more GPs, though, otherwise it will just be too late.​

In this time, assuming Constantinople should runs 1 Spy constantly (this is the only "safe" Great Person)

T126: 66/700
T127: 87/700
T128: 108/700
T129: 129/700
T130: 150/800​

+72GPP in GA/Pacifism suggests this can produce another Great Person during GA#3/4.​

----

I'm a bit tired now. Running negative food will be necessary for everywhere but Casé Depart. It looks like, after T130, we will need to spend at least 10 turns in Pacifism.

If we generate three Great Merchants:

1. Bacon Sandwich = 800/800 ? Use for trade mission?
2. Economics = freebie. Use for GA#4?
3. Dye Hard = slowest GP, we need to check this carefully, but Sushi @ 1000/1000GP?

 

[Doshin]

^^^^^ not at all polished, or finished, but a first draft to be adapted, e.g. we could just switch negative food tiles in Dye Hard/BS to specialists, and continue to grow until later, when the Parthenon will add +50% GPP in all cities.

I also ignore all the game's other demands. Military especially.

BTW, if we switch civics on T120 (now, i.e. to Caste/Pacifism) and again on T125 (i.e. to Police State/Slavery), our Golden Age ends on T130... the first turn that we could switch back.

So, if we plan to stay in Police State/Slavery for ~5 turns, we will need to chain our GAs via the Taj.

I mean, if we are in PSS from T125–30, then sure, we may decide to spend another turn or two in these civics... but by T133–5, we should be back in Representation, so we would only delay the Taj by 2–3 turns. And doing that would cost us one free GA turn in the process.